The 96th Academy Awards are almost here! They’ll be taking place on Sunday, March 10th at 7PM E/4PM P on ABC. To prepare you all for Hollywood’s biggest night, I’ll be going through about 11 of the 23 categories (which will consist of the 8 main above the line awards as well as the three sub Best Film awards) and give you insights as to how the race in each of them is shaping up going into the Oscars. So let’s get on with it, shall we?

​Best Animated Feature Film:

1. The Boy and the Heron
2. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
3. Elemental
4. Nimona
5. Robot Dreams

When Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse premiered back in the summer, it was the early frontrunner to win this category. It picked up wins from Critics’ Choice and the Producers Guild of America. Although at Golden Globes and BAFTA, The Boy and the Heron beat it. So we’ve got ourselves a race here. Since PGA established its own animated feature category in 2005, only four of their winners didn’t go on to win the Oscar. Which were Cars in 2006 (lost to Happy Feet), The Adventures of Tintin in 2011 (which was snubbed by the Academy; Rango won that year), Wreck-It Ralph in 2012 (lost to Brave), and The Lego Movie in 2014 (which was snubbed by the Academy; Big Hero 6 won that year). Meanwhile, since BAFTA established its own animated feature category in 2006, only three of their winners didn’t go on to win the Oscar. Which were the aforementioned The Lego Movie, Kubo and the Two Strings in 2016 (lost to Zootopia), and Klaus in 2019 (lost to Toy Story 4). In the latter two cases, BAFTA was their only major win in their respective seasons. With The Boy and the Heron, it also has a Golden Globe under its belt. There has yet to be a film that prevailed in this category at both groups that went on to lose the Oscar. Meanwhile, there have so far been three instances where the Critics’ Choice and PGA winner didn’t end up winning the Oscar: the aforementioned Cars, Wreck-It Ralph, and The Lego Movie. In the end, I’m gonna lean towards The Boy and the Heron. It’s from legendary Japanese animation filmmaker Hayao Miyazaki, the second ever winner in this category for Spirited Away back in 2002, and this could be the swan song for his career. I can see the more international voting bloc of the Academy vouching for him. As for Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, it’s a sequel that ends on a cliffhanger. Since there’s already a third film on the way, voters might just save their votes for next time.

Luckily, these next two categories should be easier to get through.

Best Documentary Feature Film:

1. 20 Days in Mariupol
2. Four Daughters
3. The Eternal Memory
4. Bobi Wine: The People's President
5. To Kill a Tiger

With wins at the Critics’ Choice Documentary Awards, DGA, and BAFTA, this is 20 Days in Mariupol’s to lose. Last year, this award went to Navalny. This year, it’s likely going to another relevant doc involving the war in the Ukraine.

Best International Feature Film:

1. The Zone of Interest
2. Society of the Snow
3. The Teachers' Lounge
4. Perfect Days
5. Io capitano

I must say that while France probably now regrets not selecting Anatomy of a Fall as their submission for this category this year, it also probably makes things a little easier for The Zone of Interest to win. It has everything going for it with a win at BAFTA as well as 5 Oscar nods overall (including Best Picture) under its belt. There’s absolutely no second guessing on this one.

Best Original Screenplay:

1. Anatomy of a Fall
2. The Holdovers
3. Past Lives
4. Maestro
5. May December

Early on in the season, there appeared to have been a number of different possibilities for winners in this category. Some were thinking Barbie would win here as a place to award Greta Gerwig…before that movie was declared as adapted by the Academy. Some were thinking Past Lives. Some were thinking The Holdovers, which I personally never bought into for one reason only. Every single Best Original Screenplay winner since Midnight in Paris back in 2011 had a writing credit from the film’s director. Which The Holdovers doesn’t have. Meanwhile, momentum has shifted towards Anatomy of a Fall after having triumphed at the Golden Globes and BAFTA. Jack Mahanes wrote a piece for Gold Derby about the 5 reasons why that movie will win (as I actually suggested), which might’ve given a number of predictors a lot to think about.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

1. American Fiction
2. Oppenheimer
3. Barbie
4. Poor Things
5. The Zone of Interest

On paper, it does make sense for Oppenheimer to win given that a number of people are thinking that Christopher Nolan could prevail in all 3 categories he happens to be nominated in. Like Alejandro González Iñárritu for Birdman, Bong Joon-ho for Parasite, and The Daniels for Everything Everywhere All at Once. It would also be interesting if Nolan were to win his first Oscar here given that a number of people (myself included) thought he should’ve prevailed for either his Original Screenplay nominations for Memento and Inception. However, Oppenheimer has not picked up a screenplay prize from any of the major precursors. American Fiction managed to beat it at both Critics’ Choice and BAFTA. The latter was especially surprising given that many thought it would be easy for Nolan to do well here with such a British group. Plus, American Fiction really underperformed across the pond, only showing up in this category there, and nowhere else. I wrote a piece for Gold Derby a few months ago about why we should look out for the latter film to win, and it looks like I was onto something. It's a crowd pleaser about a novelist trying to get his work made into a movie. I think it has the edge.

Best Supporting Actor:

1. Robert Downey, Jr.-Oppenheimer
2. Ryan Gosling-Barbie
3. Robert De Niro-Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Mark Ruffalo-Poor Things
5. Sterling K. Brown-American Fiction

When Oppenheimer premiered back in July, many officially penciled in Robert Downey, Jr. as an early frontrunner to win this category. He has held onto that status all season long with wins everywhere from the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice, BAFTA, and SAG. There’s just no reason to bet against him at this point. He’s had a long career with so many ups and downs. He’s beloved by audiences as well as his peers. He also gives some of the most compelling work he’s ever done in Oppenheimer.

Best Supporting Actress:

1. Da'Vine Joy Randolph-The Holdovers
2. Emily Blunt-Oppenheimer
3. Danielle Brooks-The Color Purple
4. America Ferrara-Barbie
5. Jodie Foster-Nyad

Early on in the season, Da’Vine Joy Randolph swept through a lot of the critics awards for her performance in The Holdovers. Although some of us did question whether or not that would translate into prizes at the televised awards for such subdued work like that. When The Color Purple started screening, some were thinking Danielle Brooks would win for arguably giving a bigger performance like how Alison Janney in I, Tonya took down critical frontrunner Laurie Metcalf in Lady Bird in 2017. Or an even more appropriate comparison, how Cate Blanchett in The Aviator took down critical frontrunner Virginia Madsen in another Alexander Payne movie starring Paul Giamatti, Sideways in 2004. Yet The Color Purple as a film just never took off in the conversation while Randolph continued to steamroll through all the televised awards. Which is so mind boggling to me because her performance is similar to how I felt about The Holdovers as a whole: fine, I just didn't get what all the fuss was about.

Best Actor:

1. Cillian Murphy-Oppenheimer
2. Paul Giamatti-The Holdovers
3. Bradley Cooper-Maestro
4. Jeffrey Wright-American Fiction
5. Colman Domingo-Rustin

This category tends to award at least one of two types of performances: playing a real person and/or undergoing a big physical transformation. Many early on thought Bradley Cooper would be the logical option for his transformation as Leonard Bernstein in Maestro. He now has 12 Oscar nominations overall, but still has yet to win. On paper, it looked like everything was finally coming his way. Yet he just never took off at any of the major precursors at all. It just goes to show how difficult it is for actors to direct themselves to an Oscar win. Laurence Olivier in Hamlet and Roberto Benigni in Life is Beautiful are exceptions, not the rules. Meanwhile, Cillian Murphy won the Golden Globe for Best Drama Actor for Oppenheimer while Paul Giamatti won Best Comedy/Musical Actor for The Holdovers. The latter pulled an upset at Critics’ Choice. Yet the former rebounded at BAFTA and SAG. So it looks like things are going Murphy’s way here.

Best Actress:

1. Lily Gladstone-Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Emma Stone-Poor Things
3. Sandra Hüller-Anatomy of a Fall
4. Carey Mulligan-Maestro
5. Annette Bening-Nyad

For the second year in a row, the early Oscar frontrunner for Best Supporting Actress went lead instead. Last year, it was Michelle Williams in The Fabelmans. This year, it's Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon. Whether or not this ends up being a good idea remains to be seen. I agree with many that had Williams stayed in supporting last year, she probably would have swept the season. Then again, many also felt it wasn't a good idea for Olivia Colman to go lead for The Favourite in 2018, thinking she'd do better in supporting, yet she still won the Oscar. As for the state of this particular race, Emma Stone nearly swept through all the major precursors for Poor Things. She won the Golden Globe (for Best Comedy/Musical Actress), Critics' Choice, and BAFTA. However, Lily Gladstone managed to win the Golden Globe (for Best Drama Actress) and SAG. Both have their pros and cons. The former is the central lead of her film and was nominated by every major precursor. Meanwhile the latter is in a borderline supporting role. Chances of winning a lead acting prize for a borderline supporting role can be hit or miss. Sometimes they prevail like Nicole Kidman in The Hours and the aforementioned Colman in The Favourite. Sometimes they lose despite being very competitive like Viola Davis in both The Help and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. Not to mention that Gladstone was nominated everywhere but BAFTA, which was likely a result of that group’s small jury system. If BAFTA was the final precursor of this season, I'd be taking her snub there a lot more seriously. But her win at SAG during final voting could help her overcome that. Plus, she does have a narrative going for her to potentially become the very first Native American to win Best Actress as well as the third woman of color overall following Halle Berry in 2001 and Michelle Yeoh last year. As of now, Josh Parham of Next Best Picture (who’s been the King of getting this category correct since 2018) is predicting Gladstone. I’m tempted to go with him there. Although if she loses, this would be Martin Scorsese’s third film to earn 10 Oscar nominations, but goes home completely empty handed following Gangs of New York in 2002 and The Irishman in 2019.

Best Director:

1. Christopher Nolan-Oppenheimer
2. Yorgos Lanthimos-Poor Things
3. Martin Scorsese-Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Justine Triet-Anatomy of a Fall
5. Jonathan Glazer-The Zone of Interest

No contest. Christopher Nolan has won the Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice, DGA, and BAFTA for Oppenheimer. He’s been heralded as one of the most successful filmmakers working today. He’s had multiple nominations before for Memento, Inception, and Dunkirk, but has yet to win. Many felt he crafted one of the best films of the century with Oppenheimer. This is his to lose.

Best Picture:

1. Oppenheimer
2. Poor Things
3. Anatomy of a Fall
4. The Zone of Interest
5. The Holdovers
6. Killers of the Flower Moon
7. Barbie
8. American Fiction
9. Maestro
10. Past Lives

When Oppenheimer premiered back in July, many officially penciled it in as an early frontrunner to win this category. Although there was the question of whether it would hold onto that status all season long or eventually suffer from frontrunner fatigue. Yet, the film swept the season, winning Best Picture prizes from the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice, BAFTA, and PGA. It is worth noting that the latter is the only major precursor that utilizes a preferential voting system like the Academy does in this category. Nothing has emerged as a challenger to Oppenheimer. There’s a ‘near-zero’ chance of it losing at this point.

As a reminder, the Academy Awards will be taking place this Sunday night on ABC. The pre-show will begin at 6:30pm/3:30pm. After that, the 96th Oscars telecast will begin at 7:00/4:00 lasting for about three and a half hours or so.