The 95th Academy Awards are almost here! They’ll be taking place on Sunday, March 12th at 8PM on ABC. To prepare you all for Hollywood’s biggest night, I’ll be going through about 11 of the 23 categories (which will consist of the 8 main above the line awards as well as the three sub Best Film awards) and give you insights as to how the race in each of them is shaping up going into the Oscars. So let’s get on with it, shall we?

Best Animated Feature Film:

1. Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
2. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
3. Turning Red
4. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
5. The Sea Beast

Disney may have dominated this category many times before, but it doesn't look like it'll happen again this year. With wins from the Golden Globes, Critics' Choice, BAFTA, and Producers Guild of America, Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio is the one to beat. One of the most revered auteurs working today has delivered a whole new take on a classic story everyone knows. It's been embraced by critics and audiences all over the world as well as the entire film industry. Netflix will likely finally have a winner here.

Best Documentary Feature Film:

1. Navalny
2. All the Beauty in the Bloodshed
3. Fire of Love
4. All That Breathes
5. A House Made of Splinters

Navalny is very relevant to the times we're living in (especially given what's been going on with Russia). It already won the BAFTA and PGA, so it's looking good for the Oscar.

Best International Feature Film:

1. All Quiet on the Western Front
2. Argentina, 1985
3. Close
4. The Quiet Girl
5. EO

All Quiet on the Western Front literally lucked out by receiving 9 nominations overall, including Best Picture. It has the highest profile out of all the nominees in this category because of that. I'd be shocked to see it lose at this point. The 1930 adaptation was the third movie to have won the Oscar for Best Picture. Now, the 2022 adaptation is likely about to become the latest to win Best International Feature Film.

Best Original Screenplay:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once
2. The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Tár
4. The Fabelmans
5. Triangle of Sadness

Martin McDonagh has won the Golden Globe and BAFTA for writing The Banshees of Inisherin. Meanwhile, Critics' Choice and WGA (where Banshees wasn't eligible) went to Everything Everywhere All at Once. The latter is the most original movie out of all the nominees. Originality is usually key to winning here with recent champs like Her in 2013, Get Out in 2017, and Promising Young Woman in 2020. Although sometimes, the more original film loses out like The Favourite falling short to Green Book in 2018 and Belfast beating Licorice Pizza last year. This year however, I think it'll go to Everything Everywhere All at Once.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

1. Women Talking
2. All Quiet on the Western Front
3. Top Gun: Maverick
4. Living
5. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Women Talking already has wins from Critics' Choice and WGA to back it up. Yet, the film really underperformed in nominations throughout the season. It was especially completely shut out at BAFTA, where All Quiet on the Western Front (which wasn't eligible for a WGA nomination) won Best Adapted Screenplay in its absence. The Academy only gave Women Talking two bids overall with Best Picture being the other category it showed up in. I think that gives it a path towards victory here. While it's possible All Quiet on the Western Front could still win, I have a hard time seeing that many people viewing it as this grand writing achievement.

Best Supporting Actor:

1. Ke Huy Quan-Everything Everywhere All at Once
2. Barry Keoghan-The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Brendan Gleeson-The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Judd Hirsch-The Fabelmans
5. Brian Tyree Henry-Causeway

This is probably the easiest acting category to predict this year. Ke Huy Quan started out as a child actor with prominent roles in 1984's Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom and 1985's The Goonies. Yet as he got older, Quan stopped acting due to lack of opportunities in the United States. So he went on to become a stunt coordinator and production assistant. Though following the success of 2018's Crazy Rich Asians, Quan was inspired to return to acting, and came back in a big way with his role in Everything Everywhere All at Once. He's already won prizes from the Golden Globes, Critics' Choice, and Screen Actors Guild. His only hiccup was at BAFTA, which went to Barry Keoghan for his performance as a troubled young islander in The Banshees of Inisherin. Nonetheless, I'd still expect Quan to take the Oscar.

Best Supporting Actress:

1. Kerry Condon-The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Jamie Lee Curtis-Everything Everywhere All at Once
3. Angela Bassett-Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4. Stephanie Hsu-Everything Everywhere All at Once
5. Hong Chau-The Whale

When The Fabelmans premiered at the Toronto International Film Festival back in September, everyone was singing their praises for Michelle Williams' performance. Thus, Oscar buffs and experts immediately slotted her to number one in their predictions for this category. Yet shortly thereafter, Universal announced that she was going to be campaigned as lead (where she ended up being nominated). Then predicting the winner here became a real head scratcher. Throughout the season, Angela Bassett won the Golden Globe and Critics' Choice for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. That led many predictors into thinking the veteran actress was going to win her very first Oscar after many years in the business. Then, Kerry Condon won the BAFTA for The Banshees of Inisherin. Followed by Jamie Lee Curtis winning SAG for playing an IRS agent in Everything Everywhere All at Once. This award could pretty much go to anyone of the three I mentioned. Although I'm sticking with Condon. She'll have the support of the British voting body who may want to throw a bone to Banshees someplace. Plus, Bassett and Curtis could wind up splitting the overdue veteran in a genre movie vote.

Best Actor:

1. Austin Butler-Elvis
2. Brendan Fraser-The Whale
3. Colin Farrell-The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Bill Nighy-Living
5. Paul Mescal-Aftersun

When The Whale had its world premiere at the Venice Film Festival back in September, it received a six-minute standing ovation. There was especially a ton of excitement for Brendan Fraser's transformative performance as a reclusive English teacher with morbid obesity who tries to restore his relationship with his teenage daughter. Plus, Fraser himself was someone who was very prolific back in the 1990s and 2000s, but stepped away from the spotlight for a while. Everyone from audiences to people in the industry were very happy to welcome him back and are rooting for him to succeed. Fraser already has wins from Critics' Choice and SAG to back him up. However, comeback narratives rarely ever result in Oscar wins. Just ask Judy Garland for 1954's A Star is Born, Mickey Rourke for 2008's The Wrestler, Michael Keaton for 2014's Birdman, and Sylvester Stallone for 2015's Creed. Although there are exceptions such as Frank Sinatra for 1953's From Here to Eternity and Renée Zellweger for 2019's Judy. It's probably a curse that even Fraser's character in The Mummy would have a hard time solving. Not to mention that The Whale missing the cut for Best Picture is another hurdle he has to overcome. Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart back in 2009 is the last winner in this category whose film didn't have a corresponding Best Picture nomination. Meanwhile, Austin Butler has done well with the more international awards groups by winning the Golden Globe for Best Drama Actor and BAFTA for his Elvis Presley impersonation. Which is interesting, because I for a while mentioned on social media how I doubted he was gonna even get nominated due to his film being an early release as well as the Academy's reluctance to recognizing young men around his age. Then again, last year, I kept saying "if Emily Blunt couldn’t get nominated for taking on a character that previously won Julie Andrews an Oscar, I doubt Ariana DeBose is going to do so following in the footsteps of Rita Moreno no matter how good she’ll end up being." So what the hell do I know? Butler has the advantage of playing a real life icon. Fraser has the advantage of playing someone ill. As Michael Keaton learned the year he lost to Eddie Redmayne playing Stephen Hawking in The Theory of Everything, "illness always wins." Although Tariq Khan has been hearing a lot of votes for Colin Farrell from Academy members he's surveyed (most of them based in New York City). I can see him benefitting from a potential vote-split between the two transformative performances with Butler and Fraser. As for who I settled on, it's gonna have to be the person who I really don't want to win (he shouldn't even be nominated either).

Best Actress:

1. Michelle Yeoh-Everything Everywhere All at Once
2. Cate Blanchett-Tár
3. Michelle Williams-The Fabelmans
4. Ana de Armas-Blonde
5. Andrea Riseborough-To Leslie

This is a category where whatever Josh Parham of Next Best Picture is predicting, I will follow. He hasn't gotten Best Actress wrong in a while. He was not one of those people who switched away from Jessica Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye to Penélope Cruz in Parallel Mothers last year (even though he was tempted to). He called Olivia Colman winning for The Favourite over the overdue Glenn Close for The Wife in 2018. Most impressively, he called Frances McDormand winning for Nomadland in 2020, where the Best Actress race that year was so up in the air. At this point, I'm just gonna make the same prediction here as Parham until he eventually gets it wrong. Cate Blanchett has prizes from the Golden Globes (for Best Drama Actress), Critics' Choice, and BAFTA for her performance as a fictional composer-conductor in Tár. Her film did pretty well in nominations overall, and this could be the best place to award it. If she wins, then she'll have won an Oscar every 9 years following The Aviator in 2004 and Blue Jasmine in 2013. However, there appears to be quite a groundswell of support for Michelle Yeoh. She's this veteran Chinese actress who's been in the business for decades. Everything Everywhere All at Once marks her very first Oscar nomination. Yeoh already has prizes from the Golden Globes (for Best Comedy/Musical Actress) and SAG to back her up. If she prevails, she'll not only become the very first Asian to win a Best Actress Oscar, but the second woman of color overall following Halle Berry for Monster's Ball back in 2001. Parham is predicting Yeoh, so that's who I'm settling on. It helps that her film is a much stronger contender than Blanchett's.

Best Director:

1. Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert-Everything Everywhere All at Once
2. Steven Spielberg-The Fabelmans
3. Todd Field-Tár
4. Martin McDonagh-The Banshees of Inisherin
5. Ruben Östlund-Triangle of Sadness

Early on in the season, it looked like Steven Spielberg was easily going to win his third Best Director Oscar for The Fabelmans. A movie loosely inspired by his aspirations to become a filmmaker when he was a kid. Spielberg won the Golden Globe, but Critics' Choice and (more importantly) DGA went to Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert for Everything Everywhere All at Once. Six years after their feature directorial debut with Swiss Army Man (which was about a farting corpse), they got even more attention everywhere this time around for the singular vision of their follow-up about a Chinese immigrant who explores multiple universes. The Daniels are likely about to become the third directing duo in history to win Oscars in this category following Robert Wise & Jerome Robbins for 1961's West Side Story and the Coen brothers for 2007's No Country for Old Men.

Best Picture:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once
2. The Banshees of Inisherin
3. The Fabelmans
4. Tár
5. All Quiet on the Western Front
6. Top Gun: Maverick
7. Elvis
8. Triangle of Sadness
9. Avatar: The Way of Water
10. Women Talking

About a year ago, everyone was expecting Damien Chazelle's Babylon, Sam Mendes' Empire of Light, and Florian Zeller's The Son to be major contenders this season...before anyone even saw them. Martin Scorsese's Killers of the Flower Moon was as well...before it got delayed to next season. So here we are.

When The Fabelmans premiered in Toronto, it officially became labeled as an early frontrunner to win here. It went on to win the Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture-Drama while The Banshees of Inisherin won Best Motion Picture-Comedy/Musical. However, Critics' Choice and (more importantly) PGA went to Everything Everywhere All at Once. When that movie was released almost a year ago at this point, I don't think anyone could've predicted that it would go on to become such a major awards contender. After all, it not only came out in March, but it's also not typically in the Academy's wheelhouse. Therefore, people had skepticism for a while as to whether or not older voters would find the film too weird to rank it high on their ballots. Then again, a lot of people were saying the same thing about Birdman in 2014 and The Shape of Water in 2017 before they both went on to win Best Picture. Everything Everywhere All at Once winning the PGA is probably a great sign. That is the only major precursor that utilizes a preferential voting system like the Oscars. Plus, it fits the mold of a majority of Best Picture winners since 2008 where the film came from a director who previously never even had a movie nominated in that category before.

As a reminder, the Academy Awards will be taking place this Sunday night on ABC. The pre-show will begin at 6:30pm. After that, the 95th Oscars telecast will begin at 8:00 lasting for about three hours or so.