The 94th Academy Awards are almost here! They’ll be taking place on Sunday, March 27th at 8PM on ABC. To prepare you all for Hollywood’s biggest night, I’ll be going through about 11 of the 23 categories (which will consist of the 8 main above the line awards as well as the three sub Best Film awards) and give you insights as to how the race in each of them is shaping up going into the Oscars. So let’s get on with it, shall we?

Best Animated Feature Film:

1. Encanto
2. The Mitchells vs. the Machines
3. Flee
4. Raya and the Last Dragon
5. Luca

With wins from the Golden Globes, BAFTA, and Producers Guild of America, it looks like Disney will once again come out on top in this category. It definitely helps that Encanto was released in theaters during Thanksgiving and started streaming on Disney+ around the Christmas holiday. Given how popular the soundtrack has also become, the movie has definitely been peaking at just the right time in the season. While I can see The Mitchells vs. the Machines being somewhat of a threat due to its Critics’ Choice win, Disney has dominated this category so much that it would be foolish to bet against the Mouse House.

Best Documentary Feature Film:

1. Summer of Soul
2. Flee
3. Attica
4. Writing with Fire
5. Ascension

With wins from BAFTA and PGA, it looks like this race is Summer of Soul’s to lose. In my opinion, it would be very deserving of the Oscar given how it manages to be both informative and entertaining at the same time. Plus, it just puts you in a good mood. Its closest competition is probably Flee because of the narrative of how its the very first movie to have ever scored Oscar nominations for Best Animated Feature Film, Best Documentary Feature Film, and Best International Feature Film in the same year. Though I’m not betting against the doc directed by Questlove.

Best International Feature Film:

1. Drive My Car
2. The Worst Person in the World
3. Flee
4. The Hand of God
5. Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom

With prizes from the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice, and BAFTA, it’s hard to bet against Drive My Car for the win here. The fact that the movie itself also has additional bids for Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Adapted Screenplay I think especially makes it unbeatable. Although the film’s closest competition is probably The Worst Person in the World given its surprise Best Original Screenplay nomination.

Best Original Screenplay:

1. Belfast
2. Licorice Pizza
3. The Worst Person in the World
4. Don’t Look Up
5. King Richard

I literally have no idea what the hell to do with this category. Belfast managed to win the Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice, Don’t Look Up won the Writers Guild of America, and Licorice Pizza won the BAFTA. Both Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice have no voter overlap with the Academy. WGA is a populist awards group, so it probably shouldn’t be that surprising that a big Netflix hit like Don’t Look Up prevailed with them. Then again, Belfast wasn’t eligible for a nomination there, so it’s hard to tell how it could’ve done had that not been the case. Though what was especially worth noting about Licorice Pizza’s win at BAFTA was that a very American film managed to beat a very British film like Belfast. It should've been easy for the latter to have won given that BAFTA is a British awards group. To make matters worse, I’ve noticed quite a bit of support for The Worst Person in the World in the anonymous ballots published online. If that prevails, it would be the first non-Best Picture nominee to win Best Original Screenplay since Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind back in 2004. I’ve (barely) settled on Belfast because it was such a passion project for writer/director Kenneth Branagh, he’s been the face of that movie’s campaign, and this could be the best place to award his overall contributions.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

1. CODA
2. The Power of the Dog
3. Drive My Car
4. The Lost Daughter
5. Dune

Early on in the season, The Power of the Dog was seen as a frontrunner to win in this category. It wasn’t eligible for a WGA nomination, so CODA won in its absence there. However, both films did go head to head at BAFTA where the winner ended up being…CODA. What was especially surprising about that was that a very American independent film managed to win a major industry award for writing from a very British voting body. So with CODA winning WGA and BAFTA, it would be hard for me to bet against it here. The last time a film won Best Adapted Screenplay at both major industry awards, but lost the Oscar was Up in the Air back in 2009, where Precious pulled off a big upset. The former losing was likely a result of all the behind the scenes tension between writer/director Jason Reitman and co-writer Sheldon Turner because Reitman really wasn't giving Turner the credit he deserved on the awards circuit.

Best Supporting Actor:

1. Troy Kotsur-CODA
2. Kodi Smit-McPhee-The Power of the Dog
3. Ciarán Hinds-Belfast
4. Jesse Plemons-The Power of the Dog
5. J.K. Simmons-Being the Ricardos

Early on in the season, Kodi Smit-McPhee swept through a lot of the critics awards for his performance in The Power of the Dog. While the success he’s had there made him the Oscar frontrunner at that point, a number of experts (myself included) questioned if Kodi was really gonna go all the way. His performance in The Power of the Dog is very subdued, and subdued performances rarely ever win Oscars. Not to mention that he’s also 25 years old, and the academy doesn’t usually like to award 20-something year old men in acting categories. When it got to the televised awards, Troy Kotsur swept the season with wins from the Screen Actors Guild, BAFTA, and Critics’ Choice for his standout performance in CODA. At this point last year, almost every one of the Earth’s population probably never heard of the journeymen deaf actor. Though now a year later, he’s likely about to become an Oscar winner.

Best Supporting Actress:

1. Ariana DeBose-West Side Story
2. Kirsten Dunst-The Power of the Dog
3. Aunjanue Ellis-King Richard
4. Jessie Buckley-The Lost Daughter
5. Judi Dench-Belfast

Early on in the season, it looked like this race was gonna come down to Caitríona Balfe for Belfast and Kirsten Dunst for The Power of the Dog. For a while, I doubted Ariana DeBose was even gonna get nominated for West Side Story. Despite taking on a role that previously won Rita Moreno an Oscar for the 1961 film adaptation, what was very much on my mind was that the actors branch snubbed Emily Blunt for taking on a role that previously won Julie Andrews an Oscar for 1964’s Mary Poppins in the 2018 sequel, Mary Poppins Returns (which I successfully predicted). Yet, Balfe was snubbed for a nomination while DeBose swept the season. While it’s looking likely that the latter has this race locked up, I personally don’t feel good about this. No discredit to Ariana’s performance in the movie at all, I thought she was very good in it. The thing is that Anita in West Side Story already won Rita Moreno an Oscar 60 years ago. Sure, we’ve seen the same role win multiple Academy Awards for different actors before, but they were for different characterizations. In this instance, it would be for a retelling. Regardless of quality, I think if a role has already won an Oscar, and it looks like it could be back in contention for a retelling, then it shouldn’t be allowed to compete again at all. To me, that just almost feels like cheating. I’d also hate for this to potentially send a message to people out there into thinking that it’s OK to take on a classic role in a new cinematic iteration of a classic story even if there already is a much lauded performance of that same character that won an Oscar for an earlier incarnation. Some actresses in the industry may feel encouraged to try getting a new film adaptation of Gone with the Wind made so they could star in it and put their take on the character of Scarlett O’Hara. So if Ariana DeBose wins the Oscar as expected, I wouldn’t necessarily be mad at it, I just wouldn’t be enthusiastic about it either.

Best Actor:

1. Will Smith-King Richard
2. Andrew Garfield-tick, tick…BOOM!
3. Benedict Cumberbatch-The Power of the Dog
4. Denzel Washington-The Tragedy of Macbeth
5. Javier Bardem-Being the Ricardos

When King Richard premiered at the festivals back in the fall, Will Smith was seen as an early frontrunner for his charismatic performance as Richard Williams. Although a number of experts (myself included) weren’t sure if he was gonna go all the way. Some were wondering if Benedict Cumberbatch would win at BAFTA for The Power of the Dog and potentially repeat at the Oscars like Anthony Hopkins did last year for The Father over Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. Others wondered if Andrew Garfield would pull ahead for tick, tick…BOOM! like how Eddie Redmayne did for 2014’s The Theory of Everything over Michael Keaton in Birdman. Yet, Will Smith managed to sweep the season. While he wouldn’t necessarily be my personal winner in this category (that would actually be Garfield), I’m not gonna be mad at this win either. Smith has been in the business for decades, he’s one of the very few movie stars from the 1990s who still hasn’t won an Oscar, and he has a great role to achieve that with.

Best Actress:

1. Penélope Cruz-Parallel Mothers
2. Jessica Chastain-The Eyes of Tammy Faye
3. Kristen Stewart-Spencer
4. Olivia Colman-The Lost Daughter
5. Nicole Kidman-Being the Ricardos

When Spencer premiered at the festivals back in the fall, Kristen Stewart was seen as an early frontrunner to win this category for her phenomenal performance as Princess Diana. Though as more people saw the film, it proved to be very divisive. Stewart was then overlooked for bids at SAG and BAFTA. Thankfully, she made it in at the Oscars, but her chances of winning at this point aren’t looking good. Meanwhile, Jessica Chastain managed to win at SAG and Critics’ Choice for her big transformative performance as Tammy Faye Bakker in The Eyes of Tammy Faye. As we’ve seen in the past, if you’re giving a big transformative performance, you’re likely going to win an Oscar. However, I have been noticing quite a surge for Penélope Cruz lately. She may have come out of nowhere to get this nomination for her incredibly raw, layered, and heartbreaking performance in Parallel Mothers, but several of the anonymous ballots said that they voted for her because she was their passion pick. Sure, those ballots may not be coming from a majority of academy members, but they have correctly forecasted potential upsets before. In 2018, it looked like Glenn Close was finally going to win her very first Oscar for The Wife. Academy members claimed in their anonymous ballots that she was a lock, but they still voted for Olivia Colman in The Favourite because she was their passion pick. Last year, it looked like Chadwick Boseman was winning a posthumous Oscar for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. Academy members claimed that he was a lock, but they still voted for Anthony Hopkins in The Father because he was their passion pick. Predicting Penélope Cruz to upset is bold because she would be the first person to win an acting Oscar without a single nomination from any of the major precursors since Marcia Gay Harden for Pollock in 2000. Though with that being said, if the passion for Cruz is real, then it probably shouldn’t be underestimated.

Best Director:

1. Jane Campion-The Power of the Dog
2. Steven Spielberg-West Side Story
3. Ryûsuke Hamaguchi-Drive My Car
4. Kenneth Branagh-Belfast
5. Paul Thomas Anderson-Licorice Pizza

In 1993, Jane Campion became the second woman in history to have ever received an Oscar nomination in this category for her work on The Piano. She won Best Original Screenplay for that movie, but lost Best Director to Steven Spielberg for Schindler’s List. Now 28 years later, she swept the season with wins from the Golden Globes, Directors Guild of America, BAFTA, and Critics’ Choice for her bold directing in The Power of the Dog. It looks like she’s going to become the third female Best Director winner following Kathryn Bigelow for 2009’s The Hurt Locker and Chloé Zhao for Nomadland last year. As for who is probably her closest competition, it ironically is possibly Spielberg. He is the most respected out of all the nominees and has earned so much acclaim and admiration for his adaptation of West Side Story. Plus, I have noticed him getting his share of support in the anonymous ballots. Though I’m not betting against the sweeper here.

Best Picture:

1. The Power of the Dog
2. CODA
3. Belfast
4. King Richard
5. West Side Story
6. Licorice Pizza
7. Don’t Look Up
8. Dune
9. Drive My Car
10. Nightmare Alley

When The Power of the Dog premiered at the festivals back in the fall, it was seen as an early frontrunner to win. With prizes from the Golden Globes, BAFTA, and Critics’ Choice, it looks like the film is in a pretty good position to take home the Oscar for Best Picture. However, the one major precursor it lost was the PGA, which went to CODA. What is worth keeping in mind there is that PGA also utilizes a preferential voting system like the academy does in this category. If The Power of the Dog couldn’t prevail there, I’m not sure how it could do at the Oscars. Especially since it’s a movie that some may find divisive. Although CODA only has three major above the line nominations, and nothing else. It’s especially not even nominated for directing nor editing. The last film that managed to win Best Picture without either one of those key nominations was Grand Hotel way back in 1932. Then again, it is worth noting that every film that has won Best Picture without a directing nomination since 1989 managed to win the PGA beforehand. Look at Driving Miss Daisy, Argo, and Green Book. On the other hand, no film since Ordinary People back in 1980 has won Best Picture without a single below the line nomination. While stats at any awards show aren’t always permanent, Ryan Casselman did recently post a YouTube video explaining which of the Best Picture nominees has the most stats going in their favor. The film that does is The Power of the Dog. Sure, it’s possible that this year could prove to be an exception to that rule, but Ryan also did a recap of past Best Picture races dating back to 2009, which was when the preferential ballot was introduced. Every year, the movie with the most stats going for it ended up winning. So I’m officially settling on The Power of the Dog.

As a reminder, the Academy Awards will be taking place tomorrow night on ABC. The pre-show will begin at 6:30pm. After that, the 94th Oscars telecast will begin at 8:00 lasting for about three hours or so.