The 93rd Academy Awards are almost here! They’ll be taking place on Sunday, April 25th at 8PM on ABC. To prepare you all for Hollywood’s biggest night, I’ll be going through about 11 of the 23 categories (which will consist of the 8 main above the line awards as well as the three sub Best Film awards) and give you insights as to how the race in each of them is shaping up going into the Oscars. So let’s get on with it, shall we?

Best Animated Feature Film:

1. Soul
2. Wolfwalkers
3. Over the Moon
4. Onward
5. A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon

With wins in this category from the Golden Globes, PGA, and BAFTA Awards, Soul pretty much has the Oscar locked up. While yes, it would be nice to see some other animated film that isn’t from Disney win for once (like Wolfwalkers), but we probably still have long ways to go before we start seeing different kinds of movies win this award more often than usual. It seems to me that ever since Moonlight won Best Picture in 2016, a lot of people have been overestimating the new members that have joined the Academy in recent years. Like in 2017, people were thinking Get Out could win (which it didn’t). Meanwhile, many were writing off Green Book for Best Picture the following year for being too old fashioned (yet it still ended up winning). What people need to keep in mind is that for as much change the Academy has been making in their membership, they still have long ways to go in general. We’re not gonna see complete 180’s happen overnight. If Soul wins Best Animated Feature Film as expected, I’m certainly not gonna complain at all because it’s still a great movie.

Best Documentary Feature Film:

1. My Octopus Teacher
2. Crip Camp
3. Time​
4. Collective
5. The Mole Agent

Going into the season, people had different predictions as to what was going to win this category (which included some films that didn’t even get nominated here). However, My Octopus Teacher has risen as a frontrunner with prizes from PGA and BAFTA. With that in mind coupled with the factor that the movie is available to watch on such an enormous streaming platform as Netflix, I see no reason why to bet against it for the Oscar at this point.

Best International Feature Film:

1. Another Round
2. Quo Vadis, Aida?
3. Better Days
4. Collective
5. The Man Who Sold His Skin

At each of the three major precursors (Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice, and BAFTA), Another Round was up against Minari in this category. Despite the latter movie being made in America, most of its dialogue is spoken in Korean, which was why it was nominated for Best Foreign Language Film at all of the aforementioned awards groups. Minari, which did win the Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice, is not eligible in this category at the Oscars due to it being an American film and not from outside of the United States. So that should pave the way for Another Round to win here. The film did just win this award at BAFTA, which shares voting members with the motion picture academy. Not to mention that it does help that Thomas Vinterberg did very surprisingly receive an additional bid for this movie in Best Director.

Best Original Screenplay:

1. Promising Young Woman​
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Minari
4. Judas and the Black Messiah
5. Sound of Metal

Going into the season, Aaron Sorkin was looking to be very competitive for a win here for The Trial of the Chicago 7. A film he not only directed as well, but his script is also so sharply written with some great back and forth banter between characters. Sorkin may have already won the Best Screenplay award (which combines adapted and original) at the Golden Globes, but the momentum appears to be behind Emerald Fennell for Promising Young Woman. She has managed to win Best Original Screenplay prizes from the Critics’ Choice, WGA, and BAFTA Awards. Not only that, but Promising Young Woman would fit into the mold of a couple of the more recent winners in this category like Get Out and Parasite as this original thriller that takes so many twists and turns. Although I would keep an eye out on Minari as a potential spoiler. It may not have been eligible for a WGA nomination (so we’ll never know how it would’ve done there) and was snubbed for a BAFTA nod, but there does appear to be some passion for that film.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

1. The Father
2. Nomadland
3. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
4. One Night in Miami
5. The White Tiger

There are only two Best Picture nominees (The Father and Nomadland) in this race. Neither of them were eligible at WGA, where Borat Subsequent Moviefilm managed to win in both of their absences. So what do I think is winning the Oscar here? Chloé Zhao may have already won the Critics’ Choice and USC Scripter Awards in this category for Nomadland, but both of those groups don’t overlap with the academy. Not to mention that neither of them have correctly forecasted the eventual Oscar winner since Call Me by Your Name back in 2017. With Zhao in a strong position to win Best Director, academy members may want to spread the wealth by giving Best Adapted Screenplay to something else. After all, Nomadland is vulnerable in general due to it not being a very dialogue-driven script, and a majority of voters may see that film more as a directorial achievement than a writing achievement. The Father may have won Best Adapted Screenplay at BAFTA, but I can see that win as an obvious one given that the film was a British production. Then again, it could still probably be helped by the fact that Florian Zeller not only wrote the script (in collaboration with Christopher Hampton), adapting it from his own stage play, but also directed the movie as well, which is a rarity. Plus, with the absence of Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, there are only two stage-to-screen transfers in contention: The Father and One Night in Miami. Although unlike the latter movie, the former is a Best Picture nominee, giving it the advantage between the two if voters are especially impressed by the achievement of translating a theatrical production to the cinematic medium. If academy members would like to give The Father something, this category does look like the best place they can do so.

Best Supporting Actor:

1. Daniel Kaluuya-Judas and the Black Messiah
2. Sacha Baron Cohen-The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Paul Raci-Sound of Metal
4. Leslie Odom, Jr.-One Night in Miami
5. Lakeith Stanfield-Judas and the Black Messiah

Early on in the season, no one had any idea as to who to predict was going to win this award. Things especially became tricky when Netflix announced that the whole cast of The Trial of the Chicago 7 were going to be campaigning in supporting. However, the streaming platform eventually chose to set their main focus on Sacha Baron Cohen for a nomination here. For a while, predictors were settling on him as a way to award the entire cast of The Trial of the Chicago 7. Although just a couple of weeks after Judas and the Black Messiah was released nationwide, Daniel Kaluuya started steamrolling throughout the season for his powerhouse performance as Fred Hampton in the film. In fact, of the four acting categories this year, this is the only one that had a sweeper through all the major precursors (Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice, SAG, and BAFTA). So to make a long discussion short, Daniel Kaluuya pretty much has this Best Supporting Actor race locked up.

Best Supporting Actress:

1. Yuh-Jung Youn-Minari
2. Glenn Close-Hillbilly Elegy
3. Maria Bakalova-Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
4. Amanda Seyfried-Mank
5. Olivia Colman-The Father

Early on, people were predicting that Glenn Close would finally win her very first Oscar this year for Hillbilly Elegy. Even after a lot of the critics chimed in with their underwhelming reviews of the film, some predictors were sticking with her due to the big, transformative nature of Close’s performance. Not to mention that this marks her eighth Oscar nomination overall, and that number proved to have been the charm for different overdue performers in the past such as Geraldine Page (for 1985’s The Trip to Bountiful), Paul Newman (for 1986’s The Color of Money), and Al Pacino (for 1992’s Scent of a Woman). Those latter two in particular, people scoff at nowadays feeling “I’m glad they won an Oscar, but for that? Really?” Which goes back to a quote Katharine Hepburn once said that went “The right actors win Oscars, but for the wrong roles.” However, Glenn Close’s overdue narrative hasn’t really taken off like it did two years ago when she won the Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice, and SAG for The Wife, only to end up losing the Oscar to Olivia Colman for The Favourite. This year, she hasn’t won any of the major precursors for Hillbilly Elegy at all. Although she at least won’t end up losing to Olivia Colman again this time since the latter actress also hasn’t picked up any major awards for The Father. Meanwhile, Yuh-Jung Youn has won Best Supporting Actress prizes from SAG and BAFTA (both of which are major industry awards). So therefore, it looks like the best way voters will end up recognizing Minari with a win will be by giving this award to Youn for her graceful screen presence in the film. 

Best Actor:

1. Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
2. Anthony Hopkins-The Father
3. Riz Ahmed-Sound of Metal
4. Gary Oldman-Mank
5. Steven Yeun-Minari

Chadwick Boseman appears to be the sentimental favorite here. He was one of the biggest rising stars of the 2010s who sadly passed away from colon cancer last year at the age of 43. Millions of people all over the world grieved his death, feeling that he had so many years ahead of him as an actor. Chadwick’s final performance in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom has so far won him posthumous accolades from the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice, and SAG Awards. Let me say right now that even if he was still alive, I think he’d still be in this race in a major way because he does indeed give a terrific performance in the film. However, Anthony Hopkins did just beat him for Best Actor at BAFTA for his incredible performance in The Father. While Hopkins’ victory over there may have been due to him being British, BAFTA is still an important industry award that has correctly forecasted upsets in acting races before. In 2015, Sylvester Stallone was the sentimental favorite to win Best Supporting Actor for his big comeback as Rocky Balboa in Creed. While I did end up predicting him, I also knew he was vulnerable for several reasons. Stallone has never been respected as an actor by any stretch of the imagination; he was the only nomination Creed received, especially in a category that was filled out with performances from Best Picture nominees; and he did not have support from SAG nor BAFTA. Although many people were questioning if Stallone even had an alternative. Predictors appeared to have underestimated Mark Rylance all season long because as great as his performance was in Bridges of Spies, it was still very understated. Not to mention that he wasn't able to do any campaigning at all given his theater commitments at the time. He also wasn’t even able to attend any of the precursors (besides the Golden Globes). So when he won Best Supporting Actor at BAFTA, director Steven Spielberg had to accept the award on his behalf. Though on Oscar night, Rylance managed to pull through over Stallone. As I mentioned earlier, Glenn Close was the sentimental favorite to win Best Actress for The Wife back in 2018. After having won the Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice, and SAG for that film, it looked like she was finally going to win her very first Oscar. When Olivia Colman won the BAFTA that season for The Favourite, people assumed that it was gonna be easy for her to win there since she’s British. Not to mention that she hadn’t been able to do as much campaigning for that film as she could’ve due to her commitments at the time with the third season of The Crown. Yet on Oscar night, Colman pulled off a huge surprise when she won Best Actress over Close. Let me be clear that I’m still predicting Chadwick Boseman to win Best Actor, but if Anthony Hopkins ends up pulling off an upset, this would be another example of predictors underestimating what BAFTA said. After all, it does help that Hopkins’ character in The Father is an aging man who is suffering dementia, and those kinds of roles have done well with awards bodies in the past. Meanwhile, Chadwick is the only contender in this category who is not in a Best Picture nominee. The last Best Actor winner who managed to overcome the factor of his film not being nominated in the top category was Jeff Bridges for Crazy Heart back in 2009. Although Bridges at the time was considered overdue for an Oscar win. Chadwick may not have that factor going for him this year, but he still has sentiment on his side nonetheless.

Best Actress:

1. Carey Mulligan-Promising Young Woman
2. Viola Davis-Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
3. Andra Day-The United States vs. Billie Holiday
4. Frances McDormand-Nomadland
5. Vanessa Kirby-Pieces of a Woman

Let me say right away that I have no idea what to do regarding this category. Best Actress is really such a toss up this year because different people have been winning different precursors. The Golden Globe (for Best Actress in a Drama) went to Andra Day, the Critics’ Choice went to Carey Mulligan, the SAG went to Viola Davis, and the BAFTA went to Frances McDormand. So what do I make of this race? Andra Day wasn’t nominated at SAG nor did she make the shortlist for a Best Actress nomination at BAFTA. Plus, she’s the lone representation for The United States vs. Billie Holiday. Viola Davis may have won an important industry award, but she’s very much loved by SAG as they’ve awarded her on all of her individual nominations for both film and TV since The Help back in 2011. Plus, with Chadwick Boseman looking strong for Best Actor, I’m not sure if Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom has enough support to win 2 acting awards at the Oscars. If it doesn’t, then the film missing out on nominations for Best Picture and Best Adapted Screenplay should’ve been the signal. Frances McDormand may have won another important industry award for Nomadland, but she was only one of two Oscar contenders (the other being Vanessa Kirby) who were even nominated at BAFTA. As for Carey Mulligan, she may only have one major win from Critics’ Choice under her belt, but Promising Young Woman is a top tier contender as it was only one of two films (the other being Nomadland) that received all the necessary nominations that are usually required to win Best Picture. Which would be directing, acting, writing, and editing. Not to mention that both of those films are also the only Best Picture nominees in contention here. So for academy members, they might be higher on their lists of movies to catch up on than the other three. Overall, I’m still predicting Carey to win, this race will likely end up being a real nail-biter until the envelope is opened on the telecast.

Best Director:

1. Chloé Zhao-Nomadland
2. David Fincher-Mank
3. Emerald Fennell-Promising Young Woman
4. Lee Isaac Chung-Minari
5. Thomas Vinterberg-Another Round

Early on in the season, some people were wondering if this was going to be the year that David Fincher would finally win his very first Oscar. He has long been considered to be one of the best directors working today who doesn’t have one at all. Especially given how the last time he had a major awards contender, which was The Social Network from 10 years ago, he had swept through all the critics prizes, won at Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice, and BAFTA, yet ended up losing DGA to Tom Hooper for The King’s Speech, who then went on to repeat at the Oscars. Yet, despite providing some very showy work on Mank, a biographical film about screenwriter Herman J. Mankiewicz, David Fincher’s overdue narrative hasn’t really taken off. Meanwhile, Chloé Zhao has been the most consistent in terms of collecting Best Director prizes everywhere. Not just with critics groups, but also Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice, BAFTA, and DGA. Her work on Nomadland may not be as showy, but it’s still very affective. She already made history as the first woman of color to ever be nominated for Best Director. Now, Zhao is not only about to become the first woman of color to ever win this award, but also the second woman to have won Best Director following Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker back in 2009. Sam Mendes may have swept through all the major Best Director precursors for 1917 last year only to end up losing the Oscar to Bong Joon-ho for Parasite, but I’d be shocked if history repeats itself this year.

Best Picture:

1. Nomadland
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Promising Young Woman​
4. Minari
5. The Father
6. Judas and the Black Messiah​
7. Mank
8. Sound of Metal

Before we got to the industry awards, Nomadland swept through all the critics prizes. It even managed to win the Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture-Drama and Critics’ Choice for Best Picture. At that point, some people were wondering if the film was going to hang on to its frontrunner status throughout the remainder of the season. Especially given how we’ve seen in the past that just because you’ve swept through all the critics awards, does not mean you’re going on to win the Oscar. Just ask 2010’s The Social Network, 2014’s Boyhood, and 2018’s Roma. But when the industry chimed in with their choices, Nomadland won Best Picture prizes from the PGA and BAFTA. The former was especially telling because that is the only major precursor that utilizes a preferential voting system just like the academy does in this category. On paper, the latter win may not be too helpful given how BAFTA has not correctly forecasted the Oscar-winning Best Picture since 12 Years a Slave back in 2013. Though if there’s any year for that stat to finally break, it would have to be this year. The preferential ballot is supposed to indicate which film(s) academy members actually feel most passionate about as well as which movie appears to be the least divisive within the industry. So it seems that the industry is just as much on board with Nomadland as critics are. After all, the movie just so happens to be very relevant to our times where people have been out of work due to this pandemic, so it’s been connecting with audiences on a very personal level. Although New York Times projectionist Kyle Buchanan tweeted that Promising Young Woman has apparently been racking up a lot of number one votes, which is more than he expected. So even if you’re still predicting Nomadland to win Best Picture, but have a hard time trying to figure out an alternative, it could be the former movie. Then again, Tariq Kahn did write a whole piece for Gold Derby about why we should look out for a possible upset by The Trial of the Chicago 7.

As a reminder, the Academy Awards will be taking place on Sunday, April 25th on ABC. The pre-show will begin at 6:30pm hosted by Ariana DeBose and Lil Rel Howery, which will feature performances from all 5 of the Best Original Song nominees. After that, the 93rd Oscars telecast will begin at 8:00 lasting for about three hours or so. And then the post-show hosted by Colman Domingo and Andrew Rannells will take place afterwards.