92nd Academy Award Predictions
​(Below-the-Line)

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The 92nd Academy Awards air on ABC this Sunday night! With only two days left, I’ll be giving you my final predictions for all the below-the-line categories. While some of them seem to have favorites, they still appear to be up in the air. So let’s get on with my predictions, shall we?

Best Production Design:
  1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
  2. Parasite
  3. 1917
  4. Jojo Rabbit
  5. The Irishman
Leading up to the Oscars, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood managed to win this award at the Critics’ Choice and Art Directors Guild (for Period Feature Film) while Parasite had also won an Art Directors Guild Award for Contemporary Feature Film. At BAFTA last weekend, 1917 won as part of a sweep for that film. While I can see that win as a sign of what’s to come on Oscar night, that might’ve been a fluke given how much the British academy went for a British-centric movie like 1917. I’m going with Once Upon a Time in Hollywood given how flashy the production design is in that movie with all the eye-popping scenery that recreates what Hollywood looked like back in 1969.
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Best Costume Design:
  1. Little Women
  2. Jojo Rabbit
  3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
  4. Joker
  5. The Irishman
The race for Best Costume Design this year has been pretty scattered. Dolemite is My Name (which was completely snubbed by the academy) won the Critics’ Choice, Jojo Rabbit won the Costume Designers Guild (for Period Film), and Little Women won the BAFTA. Though it is worth noting that Little Women wasn’t even nominated by the Costume Designers Guild, which was likely a result of that film being a late-breaking release. While we don’t know if Jojo Rabbit still would’ve won that award had it been up against Little Women, the former movie did lose to the latter at BAFTA. So I’m predicting Little Women to win here. Not only does it fit the mold of the more traditional period pieces that usually win these awards, but it would also mark the second win for costume designer Jacqueline Durran after having previously won in 2012 for Anna Karenina (which is another classic story that has been told on the big screen multiple times).

Best Cinematography:
  1. 1917
  2. Joker
  3. The Irishman
  4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
  5. The Lighthouse
This has to be one of the biggest locks in all below-the-line categories this year. After having gone through so many losses over the years, Roger Deakins finally won his very first Oscar (on his 14th nomination) in 2017 for his work on Blade Runner 2049. Now after having swept through Critics’ Choice, American Society of Cinematographers, and BAFTA Awards, he’s about to win a second Oscar for executing director Sam Mendes’ vision for 1917 by having that movie made to look like it was all done in one long continuous shot. Which is similar to how after Emmanuel Lubezki finally won his first Oscar (on his sixth nomination) in 2013 for Gravity, he went on to win a second the following year for executing director Alejandro G. Iñárritu’s vision for Birdman by having that movie made to look like it was all done in one long continuous shot.

Best Film Editing:
  1. Ford v Ferrari
  2. Parasite
  3. Jojo Rabbit
  4. The Irishman
  5. Joker
The race for Best Film Editing this year has been pretty scattered. 1917 won the Critics’ Choice, but wasn’t even nominated by the academy. At the ACE Eddie Awards, Jojo Rabbit won Best Edited Comedy/Musical Feature while Parasite won Best Edited Dramatic Feature. Since the whole academy gets to vote for this award, they usually go for the most and/or flashy editing. The one nominee in the category this year that pretty much ticks off all of those boxes is the auto racing drama, Ford v Ferrari, which did recently win Best Editing at BAFTA last weekend. Plus, this does seem like the best place academy members have to award that film.

Best Sound Editing:
  1. 1917
  2. Ford v Ferrari
  3. Joker
  4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
  5. Star Wars: The Rise Skywalker
As the editor-in-chief at Gold Derby, Tom O’Neil, keeps saying “in order to win, you’ve gotta have the most of something. The loudest movie wins the sound categories.” The loudest movie in this lineup would have to be 1917. It has already won the Golden Reel Award (for Dialogue/ADR) from the Motion Picture Sound Editors society as well as the combined category of Best Sound at BAFTA. Not to mention that war movies have had a pretty good track record in the category of Best Sound Editing in the past with 1998’s Saving Private Ryan, 2001’s Pearl Harbor, 2006’s Letters From Iwo Jima, 2009’s The Hurt Locker, 2014’s American Sniper, and 2017’s Dunkirk. The closest competition 1917 has is probably Ford v Ferrari given how that movie is heavy on sound as well (it also won a Golden Reel Award for Effects/Foley). Though since the whole academy gets to vote for the winners in these categories, expect 1917 to take it.

Best Sound Mixing:
  1. 1917
  2. Ford v Ferrari
  3. Joker
  4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
  5. Ad Astra
Given how both sound categories usually go to the exact same film, don’t expect a rare split to happen this year. Other war movies that have won Best Sound Mixing in the past include 2001’s Black Hawk Down and 2016’s Hacksaw Ridge. It would be a shocker to me if 1917 doesn’t end up winning. Ford v Ferrari may have won a Cinema Audio Society Award for Best Sound Mixing for a Motion Picture-Live Action, but that was voted on by a small peer group. Plus, 1917 wasn’t even nominated there, which was likely a result of that film being a late-breaking release.

Best Original Score:
  1. Joker
  2. 1917
  3. Little Women
  4. Marriage Story
  5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
When 1917 started screening back in November, the musical score was one of many aspects that already received major attention for that movie. Going into the season, it looked like composer Thomas Newman was finally going to win his very first Oscar on his 15th nomination. Though when Joker won the Golden Globe in this category, I at first thought it was just a fluke because given how the Hollywood Foreign Press usually loves to spread the wealth, I figured they might’ve felt that since they were already giving 1917 Best Motion Picture-Drama and Best Director, that freed them up to go in a different direction for Best Original Score. Yet, when composer Hildur Guðnadóttir repeated her victories at Critics’ Choice and BAFTA, that pretty much sealed the deal for her to become one of the very few female composers to win an Oscar for their orchestral scores. As much as I would love for Thomas Newman to finally win, it looks like it’s not going to happen this year.

For the next category, I've included links to all the nominated tunes so that you the reader can be able to listen to each of them for yourself.

Best Original Song:
  1. ‘Stand Up’ from Harriet
  2. ‘(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again’ from Rocketman​
  3. ‘I’m Standing With You’ from Breakthrough​
  4. ‘Into the Unknown’ from Frozen II
  5. ‘I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away’ from Toy Story 4
Shortly before nominations were announced, ‘(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again’ from the Elton John biographical film musical, Rocketman, had won this award at the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards (in a tie with the unnominated ‘Glasgow’ from Wild Rose). Yet, now looking at the whole Oscar lineup, ‘(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again’ as well as two of the other songs nominated (‘I’m Standing with You’ and ‘Into the Unknown’) are the sole representations for their films. Since the number of Best Picture nominees expanded in 2009, this award only went to a lone Oscar nominated film twice. The first time was ‘Man or Muppet’ from The Muppets in 2011 and the second (as well as most recent) was ‘Writing’s on the Wall’ from Spectre in 2015. Though in both of those years, the winners were up against tunes that were also there as the lone representation for their films. With that particular stat in mind, it may not be good news for ‘(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again’. Meanwhile, the final two songs in contention (‘I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away’ and ‘Stand Up’) are from films that have an additional nomination elsewhere. However, ‘Stand Up’ has the advantage of being an anthem played at the beginning of the end credits of Harriet just like a previous winner, ‘Glory’ from 2014’s Selma. Similar to how Harriet is the very first biographical film about Harriet Tubman, Selma was the very first biographical film about another very important African American historical figure, Martin Luther King Jr. Not to mention that ‘Stand Up’ happens to be co-written by Best Actress nominee, Cynthia Erivo. If the song itself wins here, she’ll not only end up becoming the youngest person to have achieved EGOT status at only 33 years old, but also the fastest to have ever accomplished that as it would be within almost four years.

Best Visual Effects:
  1. 1917
  2. The Irishman
  3. Avengers: Endgame
  4. The Lion King
  5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Back in the fall, I would’ve predicted that The Irishman would easily win this award for its de-aging visual effects that were used to make a lot of the cast appear younger and older than their actual age on screen. The movie itself even won a Visual Effects Society Award for Best Supporting Effects Film. However, there are detractors who felt that the de-aging effects were a bit iffy in some places. Meanwhile, 1917 recently won the BAFTA for Best Visual Effects as part of a sweep for that film. In a year where there appears to be no consensus favorite in this category (Avengers: Endgame won the Critics’ Choice while The Lion King won the VES Award for Best Effects Driven Film), I’m going with 1917 for the Oscar. Its Visual Effects win at BAFTA probably brought that film into the forefront of this race.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling:
  1. Bombshell
  2. Judy
  3. Joker
  4. 1917
  5. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
Much well deserved applause has already been given to the hair & makeup team of Bombshell for transforming Charlize Theron into Megyn Kelly, Nicole Kidman into Gretchen Carlson, John Lithgow into Roger Ailes, Allison Janney into Susan Estrich, and Richard Kind into Rudy Giuliani. Their work overall has already won the Critics’ Choice, Make-Up and Hair Stylists Guild, and BAFTA Awards. While I think this is almost a lock for Bombshell, I’d lookout for Joker to pull an upset not only given all the clown makeup Joaquin Phoenix had to wear, but also the fact that unlike the former movie, the latter is a Best Picture nominee. Then again, it is hard to deny how much the makeup department for Judy was able to transform Renée Zellweger into Judy Garland.

​I’ll be back soon with my final predictions for the main categories. Here is a quick rundown of my predictions for some of the short categories…

Best Animated Short Film:
  1. Hair Love
  2. Kitbull
  3. Sister
  4. Dcara (Daughter)
  5. Memorable

Best Documentary Short Subject:
  1. Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)
  2. St. Louis Superman
  3. Walk Run Cha-Cha
  4. Life Overtakes Me
  5. In the Absence

Best Live Action Short Film:
  1. The Neighbors’ Window
  2. Nefta Football Club
  3. Brotherhood
  4. A Sister
  5. Saria
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