The 91st Academy Awards are almost here! With only one day left, I’ll be giving you my final predictions for the Top 8 categories. Unlike last year where most of these were (almost) locked up, most of them are (at least somewhat) up in the air at this point in the race. So let’s get on with them, shall we?

Best Picture:

1. BlacKkKlansman
2. Roma
3. The Favourite
4. Green Book
5. A Star is Born
6. Black Panther
7. Vice
8. Bohemian Rhapsody

This has been one crazy race for Best Picture. So many of the nominees have won different precursors, yet still have important nominations missing. Black Panther won the SAG Ensemble, but doesn’t have any other support from above-the-line. Bohemian Rhapsody won the Golden Globe for Best Drama, but doesn’t have support from the writing nor directing branch. Green Book won the Golden Globe for Best Comedy/Musical and the PGA, but does not have a directing nomination for Peter Farrelly. Meanwhile, the presumed frontrunner Roma has wins from the Critics’ Choice, DGA, and BAFTA. Yet, it still has so many hurdles to overcome. For one, it’s a foreign language film, and we have yet to see one win Best Picture. Not to mention that academy members may feel they’ll be letting themselves off the hook by giving it Best Foreign Language Film. Another factor could be that Roma is a Netflix film, and there could be some industry backlash that doesn’t want to see the moviegoing experience relegated to just watching at home. Not to mention that it’s missing recognition from one very important precursor, the SAG Awards. While we did see The Shape of Water overcome the hurdle of not being nominated for Best Ensemble last year, it least still had individual acting nominations for Sally Hawkins and Richard Jenkins. Meanwhile, Roma was completely ignored by SAG, and that’s one awards group that’s shown a lot of love to Netflix in the past. As for the Oscar nominations the movie has received, it pretty much got into every single category it could have asked for except for one, which would be Best Film Editing. Only once within this past decade has a Best Picture winner manage to overcome that snub, which would be Birdman back in 2014. Though before that, you have to go all the way back to 1980 when Ordinary People won without an editing nomination. So therefore, I’m predicting BlacKkKlansman to win. While it hasn’t won any major precursor prizes for Best Picture, it’s still the only film out of all the nominees to have garnered every single important nomination from the academy (which would be for directing, writing, and editing), plus the SAG Ensemble.
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Best Director:

1. Alfonso Cuarón-Roma
2. Spike Lee-BlacKkKlansman
3. Yorgos Lanthimos-The Favourite
4. Adam McKay-Vice
5. Paweł Pawlikowski-Cold War

With wins everywhere at the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice, DGA, and BAFTA, Alfonso Cuarón is pretty much a lock at this point to win his second Oscar for directing. After pulling off such a big technical achievement in 2013 with Gravity, he makes a smaller, more personal film with Roma. Not to mention that he also produced, wrote, shot, and edited the film as well. Though in any other year, Spike Lee probably would’ve had a great chance of making history as the first African American to win Best Director for BlacKkKlansman. At least he should be happy enough to have finally gotten as far as receiving a nomination from the directors branch.

Best Actor:

1. Rami Malek-Bohemian Rhapsody
2. Christian Bale-Vice
3. Bradley Cooper-A Star is Born
4. Viggo Mortensen-Green Book
5. Willem Dafoe-At Eternity’s Gate

Early on in the season, it looked like this race was going to be between Christian Bale and Bradley Cooper. In Vice, Bale gives the bigger performance for his complete transformation into Dick Cheney. He has wins at the Golden Globes (for Best Comedy/Musical Actor) and Critics’ Choice to back him up. Though in A Star is Born, Cooper not only gives a terrific performance as an alcoholic singer-songwriter, but he also directed, produced, and co-wrote the movie as well. Yet, he never really took off as a major contender. Meanwhile, Rami Malek has been doing much better than expected with wins at the Golden Globes (for Best Drama Actor), SAG Awards, and BAFTA for his performance as Freddie Mercury in Bohemian Rhapsody. Even those who did not like the film still felt that Malek was the best thing about it. While he may only be given “half a performance” (his singing was dubbed by the real Freddie Mercury) in the movie, it looks like Rami Malek will be able to overcome every single obstacle standing in his way on Oscar night.

Best Actress:

1. Glenn Close-The Wife
2. Olivia Colman-The Favourite
3. Lady Gaga-A Star is Born
4. Yalitza Aparicio-Roma
5. Melissa McCarthy-Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Early on in the season, it looked like this was going to be a three-way race between Glenn Close, Olivia Colman, and Lady Gaga. Yet, when Glenn Close very surprisingly won the Golden Globe for Best Drama Actress over Lady Gaga and gave such a memorable speech, the race started to become clearer. With additional wins at the Critics’ Choice (in a tie with Lady Gaga) and SAG Awards, it looks like the seventh time might just be the charm for Glenn Close. She currently shares an all-time record with Deborah Kerr and Thelma Ritter as one of the biggest losing actresses in Oscar history, and some of you may be thinking that this would just be a career win, but her performance in The Wife is actually worthy of such recognition. However, Olivia Colman now appears to be within striking distance for The Favourite. She’s so far manage to win the Golden Globe for Best Comedy/Musical Actress and the BAFTA. Though with that being said, Colman hasn’t been able to do as much campaigning due to her commitments filming the upcoming third season of The Crown while Glenn Close has been doing a lot more campaigning. It’s also worth noting that Olivia Colman is only a co-lead in The Favourite with Emma Stone & Rachel Weisz (both nominated in supporting) while Glenn Close is more front and center in The Wife.

Best Supporting Actor:

1. Mahershala Ali-Green Book
2. Richard E. Grant-Can You Ever Forgive Me?
3. Sam Elliott-A Star is Born
4. Adam Driver-BlacKkKlansman
5. Sam Rockwell-Vice

Despite having just won this award two years ago for Moonlight, Mahershala Ali is already looking to become a two-time Oscar winner this year for his performance in Green Book. With wins at the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice, SAG, and BAFTA, he pretty much has this race locked up. Richard E. Grant may be that veteran character actor who’s finally getting his big moment in the spotlight with his performance as a gay character in Can You Ever Forgive Me?, but he hasn’t won anything. Sam Elliott may be that kind of veteran actor who usually wins this award, but it seems that his very first Oscar nomination is the best award he could ask for this season.

Best Supporting Actress:

1. Rachel Weisz-The Favourite
2. Regina King-If Beale Street Could Talk
3. Marina de Tavira-Roma
4. Amy Adams-Vice
5. Emma Stone-The Favourite

Early on in the season, Regina King was the early frontrunner in this category for her performance in If Beale Street Could Talk. While she does have wins from the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice to back her up, she somehow wasn’t even nominated at SAG nor BAFTA. A similar problem Sylvester Stallone had three years ago when he was the presumed frontrunner for Creed. While King obviously has much more respect in the industry than Stallone, SAG and BAFTA are both still two important precursor groups that share voters with the academy. Speaking of SAG, that didn’t offer any help at all given that the unnominated Emily Blunt pulled off a win there for A Quiet Place. As for BAFTA, Rachel Weisz manage to overcome vote-splitting with Emma Stone by winning for The Favourite. Overall, I’m predicting Weisz to make it across the finish line. Yes, she’s won before for The Constant Gardener, but that was 13 years ago. It’s not like she just won two years ago like Emma Stone.

Best Original Screenplay:

1. The Favourite
2. Roma
3. Green Book
4. Vice
5. First Reformed

The original screenplay race this year has been pretty scattered. Green Book won the Golden Globe (which combines both adapted and original), First Reformed won the Critics’ Choice, The Favourite won the BAFTA, and the unnominated Eighth Grade won the WGA. While veteran screenwriter Paul Schrader should feel lucky to have finally received his very first Oscar nomination for First Reformed after having been previously overlooked for his work on Taxi Driver and Raging Bull, the nomination is the award. Especially given that it was not recognized anywhere else. I’m going with The Favourite given that it does appear to be the most writerly driven out of all the nominees. Though if Roma ends up pulling an upset, then that could be the signal that it’s winning Best Picture.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

1. BlacKkKlansman
2. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
3. If Beale Street Could Talk
4. A Star is Born
5. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

The adapted screenplay race this year has also been pretty scattered. If Beale Street Could Talk won the Critics’ Choice Award, BlacKkKlansman won the BAFTA, and Can You Ever Forgive Me? won the WGA. Beale Street’s win at Critics’ Choice might’ve been a makeup award given that writer-director Barry Jenkins didn’t manage to prevail there for Moonlight two years ago despite going on to win the Oscar. As for Can You Ever Forgive Me?, that might’ve benefitted from the Writers Guild having TV writers as voters, and co-writer Nicole Holofcener has done quite a bit of work in television both as a writer and director. It’s also worth noting that the last time a film that wasn’t nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars won Best Adapted Screenplay was Gods & Monsters back in 1998. With BlacKkKlansman being only one of two Best Picture nominees (the other being A Star is Born) in contention this year, I’m predicting that to win. Plus, what a moment it would be to see Spike Lee receive his very first competitive Oscar as he is one of the four credited screenwriters on the film.

​The Red Carpet begins at 6:30 tomorrow night on ABC followed by the 91st Academy Awards at 8:00.