91st Academy Award Predictions
​(Below-the-Line)

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The 91st Academy Awards air on ABC this Sunday night! With only two days left, I’ll be giving you my final predictions for all the below-the-line categories. While some of them seem to have favorites (no pun intended), they still appear to be up in the air. So let’s get on with my predictions, shall we?

Best Production Design:
  1. Black Panther
  2. The Favourite
  3. First Man
  4. Mary Poppins Returns
  5. Roma
Leading up to the Oscars, Black Panther managed to win the Critics’ Choice Award and the Art Directors Guild (for Fantasy Film). Meanwhile, The Favourite has also won the Art Directors Guild (for Period Film) as well as the BAFTA, albeit, Black Panther wasn’t even nominated there. So what’s winning the Oscar? I’m leaning more towards Black Panther given the enormous world building of Wakanda. Plus, with the entire Academy voting in all 24 categories, I have a feeling that they’ll be voting for the MOST production design.

Best Costume Design:
  1. The Favourite
  2. Black Panther
  3. Mary Poppins Returns
  4. Mary Queen of Scots
  5. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Leading up to the Oscars, Black Panther won the Critics’ Choice Award and Costume Designers Guild (for Fantasy Film). Meanwhile, The Favourite won the BAFTA and the Costume Designers Guild (for Period Film). Black Panther may not be the usual winner in this category, though we did see Mad Max: Fury Road win Best Costume Design a few years ago (and I still have no idea how it even got nominated there). While I can see Black Panther standing out as the apple in a bag of oranges (or vice versa), I’m still predicting The Favourite. While it may be the more obvious winner in this category, the costumes in that film are still far more elaborate.

Best Cinematography:
  1. Roma
  2. The Favourite
  3. Cold War
  4. A Star is Born
  5. Never Look Away
This is not only one of the easiest categories to predict this year, but also one of the awards Alfonso Cuarón will be taking home for Roma. He’s so far manage to win the Critics’ Choice Award and BAFTA in this category, so betting against him at this point would be pretty foolish. What would also make this win all the more remarkable is that Cuarón originally intended for the film to be shot by Emmanuel Lubezki, but due to logistic reasons, Lubezki couldn't proceed after he had already done some preparations. Cuarón also didn't want to hire an English-language DP and have to translate his own experience, which is why he decided to do the cinematography himself.

Best Film Editing:
  1. Vice
  2. Bohemian Rhapsody​
  3. BlacKkKlansman
  4. The Favourite
  5. Green Book
This is one of the categories that are most up in the air this year. First Man won the Critics’ Choice Award, yet it wasn’t even nominated by the academy. Meanwhile at the ACE Eddie Awards, Bohemian Rhapsody won Best Edited Dramatic Feature and The Favourite won Best Edited Comedy/Musical Feature. Though Vice did recently win the catch-all award for Best Editing at BAFTA. So what’s winning the Oscar? Despite the mixed reception to Bohemian Rhapsody, even that film’s detractors felt that the editing saved the day. Especially given all the behind the scenes drama with director Bryan Singer getting fired before principal photography wrapped up, and Dexter Fletcher coming in to save the film at the last minute. Then again, The Favourite does have pretty flashy editing. However, I’m predicting Vice to win not only because of its recent victory at BAFTA, but it also does have some pretty flashy editing as well. Though if BlacKkKlansman pulls an upset here, that could be a sign of strong support for the film.

​Best Sound Editing:
  1. Black Panther
  2. Bohemian Rhapsody
  3. First Man
  4. Roma
  5. A Quiet Place
This category is kind of up in the air. At the recent Golden Reel Awards (which recognizes the work of motion picture sound editors), Bohemian Rhapsody won Best Sound Editing: Music in a Musical Feature Film and Best Sound Editing: Dialogue and ADR in a Feature Film. Meanwhile, A Quiet Place won Best Sound Editing: Sound Effects and Foley in a Feature Film and Roma won Best Sound Editing: Sound Effects, Foley, Dialogue and ADR in a Feature Foreign Language Film. With the entire academy voting in all 24 categories, they tend to vote for the loudest movie out of all the nominees. Of this year’s slate, First Man would have to be that movie. However, I’m predicting Black Panther to win given the wide variety of sound effects they had to create for all the action sequences and world of Wakanda. Though I could see Bohemian Rhapsody winning given how both of these sound categories often go to the same film.

Best Sound Mixing:
  1. Bohemian Rhapsody
  2. First Man
  3. A Star is Born
  4. Black Panther
  5. Roma
Musicals usually have a great track record of winning this award. While Bohemian Rhapsody is not a musical, it is at least a music-driven film along the lines of Amadeus, Bird, Ray, and Whiplash​. Credit must also be given to the sound mixers on that film for being able to blend in vocals of the real Freddie Mercury in with Rami Malek’s visual performance. Not to mention that Bohemian Rhapsody also has wins from the Cinema Audio Society Award and BAFTA to back it up.

Best Original Score:
  1. Black Panther
  2. If Beale Street Could Talk
  3. BlacKkKlansman
  4. Mary Poppins Returns
  5. Isle of Dogs
This has to be the most wide open race of the year. First Man won both the Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice Award in this category, yet wasn’t even recognized by the academy. BAFTA didn’t do us any favors either as their award for Best Film Music (which combines both scores and soundtracks) went to A Star is Born. Out of all the nominees, I think If Beale Street Could Talk​ has the best score. It not only feels (and sounds) very moving, but also very distinct. If voters felt that way, I can see Beale Street winning. Though Black Panther did just win a Grammy for Best Score Soundtrack for Visual Media, and that score does have a very distinct African sound. However, Terence Blanchard also recently won a Grammy for Best Instrumental Composition for BlacKkKlansman. If he pulls off a win here, that could be a sign of support for the film.

Best Original Song:
  1. ‘Shallow’ from A Star is Born
  2. ‘All the Stars’ from Black Panther
  3. ‘I’ll Fight’ from RBG
  4. ‘The Place Where Lost Things Go’ from Mary Poppins Returns
  5. ‘When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings’ from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
This is another one of the easiest categories to predict this year. With wins from the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice, and Grammys, Best Original Song is looking to be the best place to not only award A Star is Born, but also Lady Gaga’s overall contributions to the film as she is one of four credited songwriters on it. That, and also because ‘Shallow’ really is the best song out of all the nominees.

Best Visual Effects:
  1. First Man
  2. Avengers: Infinity War
  3. Ready Player One
  4. Solo: A Star Wars Story
  5. Christopher Robin
With Black Panther not around to split the vote, this does seem like the perfect opportunity for Avengers: Infinity War to become the first Marvel Cinematic Universe movie to ever win this award. After all, it has received a lot of acclaim for the effects work, and also has a Visual Effects Society Awards win for Best Effects Driven Film to back it up. However, the winner for Best Visual Effects in recent years is usually the movie with the most nominations overall. With First Man being the only film in contention that received recognition from other branches of the academy, that can definitely be helpful since every single member gets to vote for the winners in all 24 categories. While the movie itself may not have the showiest special effects out of all the nominees, it could still stand out as the apple in a bag of oranges (or vice versa) in a race that’s mostly filled with CGI extravaganzas. It’s also worth noting that First Man did manage to win a Visual Effects Society Award for Best Supporting Effects Film.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling:
  1. Vice
  2. Mary Queen of Scots
  3. Border
What better way to finish off my predictions here than with another easy category. Not only is it a safe bet to predict Best Picture nominee, Vice, to win, but a lot of well-deserved credit must be given to the hair and makeup team of that movie. They literally had to transform so much of the cast into the real life people they were playing. From Christian Bale as Dick Cheney to Amy Adams as Lynne Cheney to Sam Rockwell as George W. Bush.

​I’ll be back soon with my final predictions for the main categories.
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