The 90th Academy Awards air on ABC tonight! With so little time left, I’ll be giving you my final predictions for the Top 8 categories. Most of the categories are (almost) locked up, yet there are a couple that are a little more up in the air. So let’s get on with them, shall we?

Best Picture:

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. The Shape of Water
   
3. Get Out
4. Lady Bird
5. Dunkirk
6. Call Me By Your Name
7. Phantom Thread
8. The Post
9. Darkest Hour

This has been one unpredictable Oscar race. All of this year’s Best Picture nominees have at least one important thing missing. Dunkirk is missing nominations for both acting and screenplay. Get Out and Lady Bird are both missing nominations for Best Film Editing. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri is missing a Best Director nomination. While The Shape of Water is the only film to have received all the key Oscar nominations that are required to win Best Picture, it still did not receive a SAG nomination for Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture. No film since Braveheart back in 1995 has gone on to win the Oscar for Best Picture without a SAG Ensemble nomination. And to make things all the more difficult, Best Picture has been voted on by a preferential ballot in recent years. It looks to me like Get Out and The Shape of Water may more likely be the consensus choices. Three Billboards, on the other hand, may be too divisive to do well on the preferential ballot. It may have won the Golden Globe and BAFTA Awards, but those were both plurality votes. On paper, Get Out looks nothing like an Oscar-friendly film at all. Yet, the horror-comedy released over a year ago has had quite a bit of staying power thanks to its social commentary on race relations in America. Though there may still be some genre-biased held against the film from older Academy members. The Shape of Water may have done well at the Critics Choice and PGA (which also utilizes a preferential voting system), but even that latter awards group hasn’t correctly predicted the Best Picture winner within the last two years. Though given our current political climate with the #MeToo and Times’ Up movements, I’m giving the (slight) edge to Three Billboards.
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Best Director:

1. Guillermo del Toro-The Shape of Water
2. Christopher Nolan-Dunkirk
3. Greta Gerwig-Lady Bird
4. Jordan Peele-Get Out
   
5. Paul Thomas Anderson-Phantom Thread

With wins at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, DGA, and BAFTA, Guillermo del Toro seems to be a (near) lock to win Best Director for The Shape of Water. That win would be very well deserved in my opinion because if you’ve seen that film, you can tell it all came from his imagination. The only other nominee I could possibly see beating del Toro is Christopher Nolan not only given that Dunkirk marks the veteran filmmaker's very first Oscar nomination for directing, but also how that film is such an excellent showcase of his talents.

Now this year may mark the first time that all four acting winners have swept through all the major precursors (Golden Globes, Critics Choice, SAG, BAFTA) prior to the Oscars. Which is one of the reasons why I have these four people predicted to win.

Best Actor:

1. Gary Oldman-Darkest Hour
2. Timothé​e Chalamet-Call Me By Your Name
3. Daniel Day-Lewis-Phantom Thread
4. Daniel Kaluuya-Get Out
5. Denzel Washington-Roman J. Israel, Esq.

For many years, Gary Oldman has been considered to be one of the greatest actors who had never been nominated for an Oscar before he finally received his first nomination in 2011 for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy. Not only is he now nominated again this year for his powerhouse performance as Winston Churchill in Darkest Hour, but is also the one to beat. Timothée Chalamet may have won a lot of critics awards for his breakout performance in Call Me By Your Name, but the Academy has had their long bias against 20-something year olds in the Best Actor category. Phantom Thread may be the last time we’ll ever see Daniel Day-Lewis on screen, but he at least has three Oscars already. If you ask me, Gary Oldman (almost) has this in the bag.
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Best Actress:

1. Frances McDormand-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
   
2. Saoirse Ronan-Lady Bird
   
3. Sally Hawkins-The Shape of Water
   
4. Margot Robbie-I, Tonya
   
5. Meryl Streep-The Post
   

Early on in the season, it looked like the race for Best Actress was going to be a nail-biter. Yet, Frances McDormand has been building tons of momentum with wins at all the major televised awards. Not to mention that she’s been much more enthusiastic in her acceptance speeches than you’d think given how in the past, she never really looked comfortable giving speeches. As for who could take her down, Sally Hawkins probably gives the most unique performance out of all the nominees as she plays a mute character in The Shape of Water. Then again, Saoirse Ronan does fit the mold of the Academy’s usual choice for Best Actress, which would be the ingénue. Not to mention that she earned her first Oscar nomination for Atonement when she was only 13 years old, Academy members have watched her grow up over the years. Now at the age of 23, Ronan has earned her third Oscar nomination for her performance in Lady Bird (her second nomination was for Brooklyn two years ago). Though with that being said, there’s no stopping McDormand for her powerhouse performance in Three Billboards.

Best Supporting Actor:

1. Sam Rockwell-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Willem Dafoe-The Florida Project
3. Richard Jenkins-The Shape of Water
4. Christopher Plummer-All the Money in the World
5. Woody Harrelson-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Early on in the season, Willem Dafoe picked up a lot of critics prizes for his performance in The Florida Project, making him an early frontrunner for the Oscar. But when it got to the televised awards, Sam Rockwell started picking up some steam with wins everywhere else for Three Billboards​. Even when Rockwell was up against his co-star, Woody Harrelson, at SAG and BAFTA, he still managed to prevail. Though in recent weeks, Dafoe has been putting himself out there as a way to stay in the game. But in the end, I think Sam Rockwell, who for a while was considered to be such an underrated actor, will finally get his big moment in the spotlight.

Best Supporting Actress:

1. Allison Janney-I, Tonya
2. Laurie Metcalf-Lady Bird
3. Mary J. Blige-Mudbound
4. Octavia Spencer-The Shape of Water​
5. Lesley Manville-Phantom Thread

Of all four acting races this year, Best Supporting Actress is probably the least certain of a winner. While Allison Janney has been building tons of momentum with major wins for her performance in I, Tonya, there’s still a lot of good will towards Laurie Metcalf for her performance in Lady Bird. Unlike the former film, the latter is actually a Best Picture nominee. If Academy members would like to give Lady Bird something, Best Supporting Actress is probably the best way to do it given that Metcalf has a more heartfelt character in that film as opposed to Janney’s domineering character in I, Tonya. Then again, Allison Janney does give the bigger performance (especially with how she transforms into her character), so she seems to have the edge.
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Best Original Screenplay:

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Get Out
3. Lady Bird
4. The Shape of Water
5. The Big Sick

This is a pretty interesting race we’ve got here. Get Out managed to win this category at the Critics Choice and Writers Guild Awards while Three Billboards won this category at the Golden Globes and BAFTA Awards. The latter prizes both of those films won were industry awards, which both have shared voting units with the Academy. Get Out’s advantage at the Writers Guild might’ve been because several of those voters work in television, which is a medium where filmmaker Jordan Peele comes from. Three Billboards’ advantage at BAFTA might’ve been because of filmmaker Martin McDonagh’s reputation in the U.K. as a British playwright. If those two films cancel each other out, could Lady Bird sneak in and take it? There is a lot of good will towards Greta Gerwig, who not only wrote and directed the film, but is also the fifth woman to have ever been nominated for Best Director. In the end, I’m giving the (slight) edge to Three Billboards because no matter how divisive that movie is, it at least still managed to pull off its screenplay wins in plurality votes. Plus, Academy members could probably take the moment to make it up to McDonagh after his Best Director snub.
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Best Adapted Screenplay:

1. Call Me By Your Name
2. Mudbound
3. Molly’s Game
4. The Disaster Artist
5. Logan

In what has essentially been a pretty slow year in the race for Best Adapted Screenplay, there’s only one Best Picture nominee in contention. Not only do I think Call Me By Your Name will win because of that, but also given how that film manages to tell a unique gay love story. Not to mention that screenwriter James Ivory, who’s been nominated as director three times before for A Room with a View, Howards End, and The Remains of the Day, would not only win his first Oscar, but also at age 89 become one of the oldest winners ever (if not, the oldest). The only thing I could possibly see beating it is Mudbound given how that’s the only other film in this category that has support elsewhere while The Disaster Artist, Logan, and Molly’s Game are all sole nominees.

​The Red Carpet begins at 6:30 tonight on ABC followed by the 90th Academy Awards at 8:00. Here’s hoping all envelopes will be in order.