As we're now about two days away from the announcement of this year's Tony Award nominations, I thought now would be a good time to share what my predictions are. On this page, I’ll be listing my predicted nominees for each of the musical categories as well as what/who I think could sneak in.
Best Musical:
Girl From the North Country
MJ
Mr. Saturday Night
Six
A Strange Loop
What Could Sneak In?: Despite ending its limited run back in January as well as a divided critical recpetion, I think Flying Over Sunset could still get in if the nominating committee respects it enough for its originality even if they didn’t necessarily 100% agreed with the end results. Since James Lapine's Broadway debut with Sunday in the Park with George back in 1984, his directorial outings have so far only missed a top production category at the Tonys only once (which was Sondheim on Sondheim in 2010). I think the one from my predicted lineup that could miss is MJ given two factors. One, it wasn't a big critical hit. Two, the controversy surrounding the subject of Michael Jackson due to some posthumous child sexual abuse allegations. Then again, Sam Eckmann has mentioned in Gold Derby slugfests that he heard people within the industry have been liking MJ more than critics. Makes me wonder if it could have a similar trajectory to Bohemian Rhapsody’s at the 2018 Oscars. Despite not being a critical favorite and being plagued with controversy, it not only proves to be a commercial hit, but people within the industry liked it more.
Best Revival of a Musical:
Caroline, or Change
Company
The Music Man
What Could Sneak In?: The only other musical revival that opened on Broadway this past season was Funny Girl, but the production really hasn't been that well liked. While The Music Man didn't quite lived up to everyone's high expectations going in, many people have at least still enjoyed it more than Funny Girl.
Best Performance By a Leading Actor in a Musical:
Billy Crystal-Mr. Saturday Night
Myles Frost-MJ
Hugh Jackman-The Music Man
Rob McClure-Mrs. Doubtfire
Jaquel Spivey-A Strange Loop
Who Could Sneak In?: Jay O. Sanders' performance and character in Girl From the North Country may not be as showy as any of the five men listed above, but if his show does really well, I can see him sneaking in as a coattail bid. If he does so, I'm guessing he'll get in at the expense of Rob McClure given that there is the question of how Mrs. Doubtfire could possibly do in nominations at this point. That musical didn't receive great reviews, although even those who didn't enjoy it were still impressed with McClure's high wire act of a performance.
Best Performance By a Leading Actress in a Musical:
Sharon D. Clarke-Caroline, or Change
Sutton Foster-The Music Man
Joaquina Kalukango-Paradise Square
Katrina Lenk-Company
Mare Winningham-Girl From the North Country
Who Could Sneak In?: If Flying Over Sunset does well in nominations, expect Carmen Cusack to be remembered for her much lauded performance as Clare Booth Luce. If she does sneak in, I'm guessing it'll be at the expense of Joaquina Kalukango. While the latter did receive rave reviews for her performance in Paradise Square, the show itself has not been well liked. Nominators may feel that if there was a better musical around her, they'd be taking her a lot more seriously. Then again, the award isn't best performance in a good production, it's best performance in general.
Best Performance By a Featured Actor in a Musical:
Matt Doyle-Company
Claybourne Elder-Company
Jared Grimes-Funny Girl
John-Andrew Morrison-A Strange Loop
Austin Scott-Girl From the North Country
Who Could Sneak In?: While many people feel that the only genuine great things about Paradise Square has been Joaquina Kalukango’s performance as well as the choreography, A.J. Shively apparently has a showy, mostly dancing role. He sounds like a dark horse possibility. David Paymer, who received a Best Supporting Actor Oscar nomination for his role in the 1992 original film of Mr. Saturday Night, could sneak in for reprising it in the stage musical adaptation. Although there are other previous multiple Tony nominees who could be back this year such as Christopher Fitzgerald (Company), Marc Kudisch (Girl From the North Country), and Christopher Sieber (Company). Of my predicted nominees here who I think could miss, probably Austin Scott given that his performance/role in Girl From the North Country doesn't appear to be as showy compared to the other contenders. Although many have found him to be a standout in the musical.
Best Performance By a Featured Actress in a Musical:
Shoshana Bean-Mr. Saturday Night
L Morgan Lee-A Strange Loop
Patti LuPone-Company
Jane Lynch-Funny Girl
Jennifer Simard-Company
Who Could Sneak In?: Similar to Jay O. Sanders and Austin Scott in Girl From the North Country, Jeanette Bayardelle's performance/role may not be as showy compared to the other possibilities for this category to get in. Although she does reportedly have a standout near the end of the musical. Then again, there’s also Samantha Williams to consider for her performance as Emmie in Caroline, or Change from this past fall. She received rave reviews for her performance, and she was in the role that won Anika Noni Rose a Tony for the original production back in 2004.
Best Direction of a Musical:
Jamie Armitage & Lucy Moss-Six
Stephen Brackett-A Strange Loop
Marianne Elliott-Company
Michael Longhurst-Caroline, or Change
Conor McPherson-Girl From the North Country
Who Could Sneak In?: I personally feel pretty good about my predictions here. Although I think if anyone sneaks in, maybe it could be Jerry Zaks. He is a legendary American theatre director with 4 Tony Awards to his name. Then again, his work on The Music Man hasn’t been as well regarded as his work on the 2017 revival of Hello, Dolly!. I think the one of my predicted here who feels vulnerable is Michael Longhurst. Despite all the acclaim he received for his Caroline, or Change revival, his staging doesn't appear to be as showy compared to the other possibilities.
Best Original Score:
Flying Over Sunset-Music By Tom Kitt, Lyrics By Michael Korie
The Lehman Trilogy-Music By Nick Powell
Mr. Saturday Night-Music By Jason Robert Brown, Lyrics By Amanda Green
Six-Music & Lyrics By Toby Marlow & Lucy Moss
A Strange Loop-Music & Lyrics By Michael R. Jackson
What Could Sneak In?: I don’t know. Maybe Mrs. Doubtfire or Paradise Square or any other play score from this past season could sneak in as filler.
Best Book of a Musical:
Girl From the North Country-Conor McPherson
MJ-Lynn Nottage
Mr. Saturday Night-Billy Crystal, Lowell Ganz, & Babaloo Mandel
Six-Toby Marlow & Lucy Moss
A Strange Loop-Michael R. Jackson
What Could Sneak In?: James Lapine is well respected overall with 12 Tony nominations as well as 3 wins to his name. I can see him sneaking in for Flying Over Sunset. If MJ doesn't get in for Best Musical, then I can see Lynn Nottage missing for her contributions here. Then again, she too is well respected and it helps that she also had a play on Broadway this past season, which was Clyde's.
Best Choreography:
Camille A. Brown-for colored girls who have considered suicide/when the rainbow is enuf
Warren Carlyle-The Music Man
Carrie-Anne Ingrouille-Six
Bill T. Jones-Paradise Square
Christopher Wheeldon-MJ
Who Could Sneak In?: Ellenore Scott & Ayodele Casel did receive glowing notices for their reportedly “impressive” work in Funny Girl. So I wouldn't count them out for a bid here. I think the one from my predicted lineup who could miss here is Camille A. Brown. While we have seen a few plays getting bids in this category within the last few years (one of which actually included Brown for Choir Boy in 2019), the revival of Ntozake Shange's play has quickly lost momentum after opening due to low grosses, which has forced it to close early on May 22nd. So I don't know if nominators will end up writing it off as a failure. Although dance and movement are vital to the storytelling of the play, which is why I'm still predicting Brown to show up here.
You can stream the nominations announcement on the Tony Awards' YouTube channel this Monday morning at 9:00.
Best Musical:
Girl From the North Country
MJ
Mr. Saturday Night
Six
A Strange Loop
What Could Sneak In?: Despite ending its limited run back in January as well as a divided critical recpetion, I think Flying Over Sunset could still get in if the nominating committee respects it enough for its originality even if they didn’t necessarily 100% agreed with the end results. Since James Lapine's Broadway debut with Sunday in the Park with George back in 1984, his directorial outings have so far only missed a top production category at the Tonys only once (which was Sondheim on Sondheim in 2010). I think the one from my predicted lineup that could miss is MJ given two factors. One, it wasn't a big critical hit. Two, the controversy surrounding the subject of Michael Jackson due to some posthumous child sexual abuse allegations. Then again, Sam Eckmann has mentioned in Gold Derby slugfests that he heard people within the industry have been liking MJ more than critics. Makes me wonder if it could have a similar trajectory to Bohemian Rhapsody’s at the 2018 Oscars. Despite not being a critical favorite and being plagued with controversy, it not only proves to be a commercial hit, but people within the industry liked it more.
Best Revival of a Musical:
Caroline, or Change
Company
The Music Man
What Could Sneak In?: The only other musical revival that opened on Broadway this past season was Funny Girl, but the production really hasn't been that well liked. While The Music Man didn't quite lived up to everyone's high expectations going in, many people have at least still enjoyed it more than Funny Girl.
Best Performance By a Leading Actor in a Musical:
Billy Crystal-Mr. Saturday Night
Myles Frost-MJ
Hugh Jackman-The Music Man
Rob McClure-Mrs. Doubtfire
Jaquel Spivey-A Strange Loop
Who Could Sneak In?: Jay O. Sanders' performance and character in Girl From the North Country may not be as showy as any of the five men listed above, but if his show does really well, I can see him sneaking in as a coattail bid. If he does so, I'm guessing he'll get in at the expense of Rob McClure given that there is the question of how Mrs. Doubtfire could possibly do in nominations at this point. That musical didn't receive great reviews, although even those who didn't enjoy it were still impressed with McClure's high wire act of a performance.
Best Performance By a Leading Actress in a Musical:
Sharon D. Clarke-Caroline, or Change
Sutton Foster-The Music Man
Joaquina Kalukango-Paradise Square
Katrina Lenk-Company
Mare Winningham-Girl From the North Country
Who Could Sneak In?: If Flying Over Sunset does well in nominations, expect Carmen Cusack to be remembered for her much lauded performance as Clare Booth Luce. If she does sneak in, I'm guessing it'll be at the expense of Joaquina Kalukango. While the latter did receive rave reviews for her performance in Paradise Square, the show itself has not been well liked. Nominators may feel that if there was a better musical around her, they'd be taking her a lot more seriously. Then again, the award isn't best performance in a good production, it's best performance in general.
Best Performance By a Featured Actor in a Musical:
Matt Doyle-Company
Claybourne Elder-Company
Jared Grimes-Funny Girl
John-Andrew Morrison-A Strange Loop
Austin Scott-Girl From the North Country
Who Could Sneak In?: While many people feel that the only genuine great things about Paradise Square has been Joaquina Kalukango’s performance as well as the choreography, A.J. Shively apparently has a showy, mostly dancing role. He sounds like a dark horse possibility. David Paymer, who received a Best Supporting Actor Oscar nomination for his role in the 1992 original film of Mr. Saturday Night, could sneak in for reprising it in the stage musical adaptation. Although there are other previous multiple Tony nominees who could be back this year such as Christopher Fitzgerald (Company), Marc Kudisch (Girl From the North Country), and Christopher Sieber (Company). Of my predicted nominees here who I think could miss, probably Austin Scott given that his performance/role in Girl From the North Country doesn't appear to be as showy compared to the other contenders. Although many have found him to be a standout in the musical.
Best Performance By a Featured Actress in a Musical:
Shoshana Bean-Mr. Saturday Night
L Morgan Lee-A Strange Loop
Patti LuPone-Company
Jane Lynch-Funny Girl
Jennifer Simard-Company
Who Could Sneak In?: Similar to Jay O. Sanders and Austin Scott in Girl From the North Country, Jeanette Bayardelle's performance/role may not be as showy compared to the other possibilities for this category to get in. Although she does reportedly have a standout near the end of the musical. Then again, there’s also Samantha Williams to consider for her performance as Emmie in Caroline, or Change from this past fall. She received rave reviews for her performance, and she was in the role that won Anika Noni Rose a Tony for the original production back in 2004.
Best Direction of a Musical:
Jamie Armitage & Lucy Moss-Six
Stephen Brackett-A Strange Loop
Marianne Elliott-Company
Michael Longhurst-Caroline, or Change
Conor McPherson-Girl From the North Country
Who Could Sneak In?: I personally feel pretty good about my predictions here. Although I think if anyone sneaks in, maybe it could be Jerry Zaks. He is a legendary American theatre director with 4 Tony Awards to his name. Then again, his work on The Music Man hasn’t been as well regarded as his work on the 2017 revival of Hello, Dolly!. I think the one of my predicted here who feels vulnerable is Michael Longhurst. Despite all the acclaim he received for his Caroline, or Change revival, his staging doesn't appear to be as showy compared to the other possibilities.
Best Original Score:
Flying Over Sunset-Music By Tom Kitt, Lyrics By Michael Korie
The Lehman Trilogy-Music By Nick Powell
Mr. Saturday Night-Music By Jason Robert Brown, Lyrics By Amanda Green
Six-Music & Lyrics By Toby Marlow & Lucy Moss
A Strange Loop-Music & Lyrics By Michael R. Jackson
What Could Sneak In?: I don’t know. Maybe Mrs. Doubtfire or Paradise Square or any other play score from this past season could sneak in as filler.
Best Book of a Musical:
Girl From the North Country-Conor McPherson
MJ-Lynn Nottage
Mr. Saturday Night-Billy Crystal, Lowell Ganz, & Babaloo Mandel
Six-Toby Marlow & Lucy Moss
A Strange Loop-Michael R. Jackson
What Could Sneak In?: James Lapine is well respected overall with 12 Tony nominations as well as 3 wins to his name. I can see him sneaking in for Flying Over Sunset. If MJ doesn't get in for Best Musical, then I can see Lynn Nottage missing for her contributions here. Then again, she too is well respected and it helps that she also had a play on Broadway this past season, which was Clyde's.
Best Choreography:
Camille A. Brown-for colored girls who have considered suicide/when the rainbow is enuf
Warren Carlyle-The Music Man
Carrie-Anne Ingrouille-Six
Bill T. Jones-Paradise Square
Christopher Wheeldon-MJ
Who Could Sneak In?: Ellenore Scott & Ayodele Casel did receive glowing notices for their reportedly “impressive” work in Funny Girl. So I wouldn't count them out for a bid here. I think the one from my predicted lineup who could miss here is Camille A. Brown. While we have seen a few plays getting bids in this category within the last few years (one of which actually included Brown for Choir Boy in 2019), the revival of Ntozake Shange's play has quickly lost momentum after opening due to low grosses, which has forced it to close early on May 22nd. So I don't know if nominators will end up writing it off as a failure. Although dance and movement are vital to the storytelling of the play, which is why I'm still predicting Brown to show up here.
You can stream the nominations announcement on the Tony Awards' YouTube channel this Monday morning at 9:00.