The 2023 Tony Awards are almost here, so let’s make some predictions, shall we? On this page, I’ll be discussing my predictions for the play categories. By the way, you'll be seeing me reference the New York Times' recently published Tony voter poll (which surveyed about 158 out of 769 voters) a lot.
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Best Play:

1. Leopoldstadt
2. Fat Ham
3. Cost of Living
4. Between Riverside and Crazy​
5. Ain't No Mo'

According to the Times, voters are favoring Tom Stoppard's Leopoldstadt, a play about how the Holocaust affected an assimilated and affluent Jewish family in Austria, by a significant margin. It's proven to be inadvertently timely. While the play was written several years ago, it arrived on Broadway last September, just as concern about resurgent antisemitism was rising in the United States and beyond. Stoppard, who at 85, is already the most awarded playwright in Broadway history. He has previously won the Tony for Best Play four times before. First in 1968 for Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Dead, then in 1976 for Travesties, then in 1984 for The Real Thing, and most recently in 2007 for The Coast of Utopia. Leopoldstadt, which features an ensemble cast of 38 people, is about a fictional family, but is inspired by Stoppard’s own life experience. He was born in what was then Czechoslovakia; his parents fled invading Nazis when he was a toddler. He has spent his life in Britain, and like a character in Leopoldstadt, only late in life came to understand his family’s Jewishness and the impact of the Holocaust on his relatives. The play, which transferred to Broadway after winning the Olivier Award in London, opened last October to strong reviews and healthy box office sales in New York. Its sales have softened considerably this year, and it is scheduled to end its extended run on July 2nd. Leopoldstadt is leading the second-place favorite, Fat Ham, two-to-one among the voters, suggesting that it is all but certain to win. The other three nominated plays, Ain’t No Mo’, Cost of Living, and Between Riverside and Crazy, are further behind. In each of the last four Tony Awards, what voters have chosen for in this category were epic productions imported from London.​ Looks like that trend will continue this year.
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Best Revival of a Play:

1. Topdog/Underdog
2. A Doll's House
3. The Piano Lesson
4. The Sign in Sidney Brustein's Window

According to the Times, Suzan-Lori Parks’s Topdog/Underdog appears to have a modest but real lead, and is likely to win the Tony Award. If it is upset, it would be by the revival of Henrik Ibsen’s A Doll’s House, but there is enough support for revivals of August Wilson’s The Piano Lesson and Lorraine Hansberry’s The Sign in Sidney Brustein’s Window to make it difficult for any of them to catch up. Topdog/Underdog, which was first staged Off-Broadway in 2001, is about two Black brothers named Lincoln and Booth who live together in a one-room apartment, trying to get by in a world that makes their lives difficult. The play, which won the Pulitzer Prize for Drama in 2002, is an undisputed classic. Not only that, but it was also named the best American play of the previous quarter century by New York Times critics in 2018. The revival ran from September 2022 to January. A Doll's House could benefit from presenting a more pared down staging of Henrik Ibsen's classic. Although Topdog/Underdog does have a relevancy factor going for it. Plus, the revival had the most critical acclaim out of all the nominees.
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Best Performance By a Leading Actor in a Play:

1. Sean Hayes-Good Night, Oscar
2. Stephen McKinley Henderson-Between Riverside and Crazy
3. Wendell Pierce-Death of a Salesman
4. Corey Hawkins-Topdog/Underdog
5. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II-Topdog/Underdog

According to the Times, this category is way, way, way too close to call, but has boiled down to two contenders, Sean Hayes and Stephen McKinley Henderson. A little less than a third of voters chose Hayes, who in Good Night, Oscar portrays Oscar Levant, a pianist whose bitter humor made him a popular talk-show guest while he battled serious psychological problems. However, nearly the same number of voters are supporting Henderson for his portrayal of a retired police officer trying to hang onto a rent-controlled apartment in Between Riverside and Crazy. Henderson could benefit from being this journeymen character actor who voters feel hasn't quite the recognition he's deserved in the past. To award him for a rare leading role at this point in his career would be special. Although Hayes does have the advantage of playing a real-life person, which has given actors a leg up at many award shows in the past. I'm sticking Sean Hayes, but Stephen McKinley Henderson would not surprise me one bit.
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Best Performance By a Leading Actress in a Play:

1. Jodie Comer-Prima Facie
2. Jessica Chastain-A Doll's House
3. Jessica Hecht-Summer, 1976
4. Audra McDonald-Ohio State Murders

According to the Times, Jodie Comer wowed voters with her physically and emotionally exhausting tour-de-force performance in Prima Facie, a one-woman play about a lawyer who defends men accused of sexual assault until she becomes a victim herself. Amazingly, this is her first stage role. I was lucky enough to have caught the National Theatre Live's capture of the West End production in movie theaters last summer. Comer absolutely blew me away with her performance. Knowing at the time that Prima Facie would be coming to Broadway, I immediately knew that she was going to be one to watch out for in this race. Jessica Chastain may be taking on a classic role that won other actresses Tonys before, but this feels like it's Comer's to lose.

Now onto the categories the Times did not cover in their survey...

Best Performance By a Featured Actor in a Play:

1. Brandon Uranowitz-Leopoldstadt
2. Arian Moayed-A Doll's House
3. Jordan E. Cooper-Ain't No Mo'​
4. Samuel L. Jackson-The Piano Lesson
5. David Zayas-Cost of Living

When Gordon Cox spoke with voters for Variety, Arian Moayed has attracted notice for the infuriating nice-guy veneer he gives to the oppressive husband in A Doll’s House. Although both Jordan E. Cooper and Samuel L. Jackson also have supporters. Yet, based on the polling, the category stands poised to go to Brandon Uranowitz's standout role in Leopoldstadt is the closest thing to a lead the ensemble drama has. Since his first nomination for An American in Paris back in 2015, Uranowitz has been a well-liked Broadway regular and earned additional bids for Falsettos in 2017 and Burn This in 2019. Now, it looks like the fourth time will be the charm for him.

Best Performance By a Featured Actress in a Play:

1. Nikki Crawford-Fat Ham
2. Katy Sullivan-Cost of Living
3. Miriam Silverman-The Sign in Sidney Brustein's Window
4. Crystal Lucas-Perry-Ain't No Mo'
5. Kara Young-Cost of Living

According to Variety, this race is shaping up to be a showdown between two much-admired performances. In Fat Ham, Nikki Crawford scores votes for her funny, affectingly empathetic performance as the Gertrude analog in the play’s retelling of Hamlet. Also regularly mentioned as a top contender is Katy Sullivan, earning admiration for her turn as a woman struggling with a new disability in Cost of Living. Although Miriam Silverman has also grabbed attention for her role in The Sign in Sidney Brustein’s Window, but both Crawford and Sullivan’s names have come up more regularly in conversations with voters. I'm settling on Crawford given that this is probably the best place to award Fat Ham, but this could be a close race.

Best Direction of a Play:

1. Patrick Marber-Leopoldstadt
2. Jamie Lloyd-A Doll's House
3. Saheem Ali-Fat Ham​
4. Max Webster-Life of Pi
5. Stevie Walker-Webb-Ain't No Mo'
6. Jo Bonney-Cost of Living

According to Variety, Jamie Lloyd scores voter appreciation for his bold, spare interpretation of A Doll’s House, and he’s the candidate that seems to have the edge with the most memorably audacious of the play revivals. Although the widespread affection for Fat Ham includes the work of director Saheem Ali for his raucous and quietly affecting production, which many feel works even better on Broadway, in a proscenium house, than it did on a thrust stage Off-Broadway. Patrick Marber, too, stakes a claim on the category for the clarity of his staging in Leopoldstadt and for his skillful orchestration of its massive cast. I'm sticking with Marber given the overall massive scope he achieved, but if Lloyd wins, this could be where we see the surge for A Doll's House in Best Revival of a Play.

Be sure to watch the Tonys tomorrow night at 8:00 eastern/5:00 pacific on CBS. Here is a quick rundown of my predictions for the design categories, which are all likely going to be presented during the 90 minute pre-show on Pluto TV (which begins at 6:30pm eastern/3:30pm pacific)...

Best Sound Design of a Play:

1. Carolyn Downing-Life of Pi
2. Ben Ringham & Max Ringham-A Doll's House
3. Joshua D. Reid-A Christmas Carol
4. Ben Ringham & Max Ringham-Prima Facie
5. Jonathan Deans & Taylor Williams-Ain't No Mo'

Best Lighting Design of a Play:​​

1. Tim Lutkin-Life of Pi
2. Natasha Chivers-Prima Facie
3. Neil Austin-Leopoldstadt
4. Ben Stanton-A Christmas Carol
5. Jon Clark-A Doll's House
6. Bradley King-Fat Ham
7. Jen Schriever-Death of a Salesman

Best Scenic Design of a Play:

1. Andrzej Goulding & Tim Hatley-Life of Pi
2. Dane Laffrey & Lucy Mackinnon-A Christmas Carol
3. Richard Hudson-Leopoldstadt
4. Miriam Buether-Prima Facie
5. Rachel Hauck-Good Night, Oscar

Best Costume Design of a Play:

1. Brigitte Reiffenstuel-Leopoldstadt
2. Nick Barnes, Finn Caldwell, & Tim Hatley-Life of Pi
3. Dominique Fawn Hill-Fat Ham
4. Emilio Sosa-Ain't No Mo'
5. Emilio Sosa-Good Night, Oscar