The 2023 Tony Awards are almost here, so let’s make some predictions, shall we? On this page, I’ll be discussing my predictions for the musical categories. I'll also be providing links to a sample of as many of the nominated performances as I can find. By the way, you'll be seeing me reference the New York Times' recently published Tony voter poll (which surveyed about 158 out of 769 voters) a lot.

Best Musical:

1. Kimberly Akimbo
2. Some Like It Hot
3. Shucked
4. & Juliet
5. New York, New York

According to the Times, Kimberly Akimbo is shaping up to be the little engine that could. The musical is adapted from a play by David Lindsay-Abaire, who also wrote the book and lyrics for this along with Jeanine Tesori composing the music. The story follows a high school student, 15 going on 16, whose life is threatened by a genetic disorder that causes her to age prematurely; that sounds sad, and it is, but the musical is also quite funny, as the protagonist navigates a dysfunctional home life, a gawky peer group, and the criminal aunt who connects those worlds. It opened back in November to the strongest reviews of any of this season’s new musicals, and now a plurality of voters interviewed say they are voting for it as the season’s best new musical. While not all voters love Kimberly Akimbo (some are finding it extraordinarily moving, while others are left cold), the show’s odds are good because those who are not voting for it are splitting their votes between two comedies. Some Like It Hot, which is adapted from Billy Wilder's classic 1959 film, and Shucked, an original pun-filled and country-scored fable. The two other nominated musicals, & Juliet and New York, New York, lag considerably behind. Throughout most of this past decade, the industry has been championing the more experimental musical most at the Tonys. Among them are Once, Fun Home, Hamilton, Dear Evan Hansen, The Band's Visit, Hadestown, and A Strange Loop. It's looking like the trend will continue this year with Kimberly Akimbo.

​Best Revival of a Musical:

1. Parade
2. Sweeney Todd
3. ​Into the Woods
4. Camelot

According to the Times, Parade, a 1998 musical with a book by Alfred Uhry and a score by Jason Robert Brown about the lynching of a Jewish man in early-20th-century Georgia, has a narrow lead among voters. Although there is also substantial support for revivals of two shows with scores by Stephen Sondheim: Into the Woods and Sweeney Todd. Any of those three could win; Lincoln Center Theater's revisal of Camelot is not a significant factor in the race. Parade opened in March and is scheduled to end its limited run in August; Camelot and Sweeney Todd are running indefinitely, while Into the Woods is wrapping up a national tour. With two Sondheim musicals up against each other, they could be at risk of canceling each other out. Meanwhile, Parade could follow a similar path to director Michael Arden‘s previous musical revival, Once on This Island. Mainly in how a number of voters probably felt that musical didn't quite get the recognition it deserved during its first go around and vote for it here. Parade also does have the relevancy factor going for it given what's been going on in the world lately.

Best Performance By a Leading Actor in a Musical:

1. J. Harrison Ghee-Some Like It Hot
2. Ben Platt-Parade
3. Josh Groban-Sweeney Todd
4. Christian Borle-Some Like It Hot
5. Brian d'Arcy James-Into the Woods
6. Colton Ryan-New York, New York

During my first year of writing for BroadwayWorld back in 2015, I interviewed an actor named J. Harrison Ghee, who at the time was getting ready to do a stint in the national tour of Kinky Boots as Lola at the Durham Performing Arts Center. 8 years later, Ghee is delivering a star-making turn in Some Like It Hot on Broadway as Jerry, a musician who along with his friend and colleague, Joe, disguises himself as a woman to escape the mob. That role previously earned Jack Lemmon an Oscar nomination for the original film. According to the Times, Ghee is winning over voters with an empathetic, but also entertaining, portrayal, which in this stage musical adaptation, sees the character's gender identity evolving over the course of the show. Ghee already made history as the very first openly non-binary performer ever nominated in this category, and is now looking like they'll be the first to win as well.

Best Performance By a Leading Actress in a Musical:​​

1. Victoria Clark-Kimberly Akimbo
2. Annaleigh Ashford-Sweeney Todd
3. Micaela Diamond-Parade
4. Lorna Courtney-& Juliet
5. Sara Bareilles-Into the Woods

According to the Times, Victoria Clark is heavily favored for her mind-bending star turn in Kimberly Akimbo, in which the 63-year-old actress plays an ailing adolescent with all the awkwardness, resilience, and premature wisdom that such a role requires. Clark previously won here 2005 for The Light in the Piazza. Since then, she earned three more nominations as a featured performer in Sister Act (2011), Rodgers & Hammerstein's Cinderella (2013), and Gigi (2015). This year, it's looking like she'll finally add a second Tony to the mantle. If that happens, it'll be similar to Frances McDormand's track record at the Oscars where every time she's been nominated as lead, she's won.

​Now onto the categories the Times did not cover in their survey...

Best Performance By a Featured Actor in a Musical:

1. Alex Newell-Shucked
2. Justin Cooley-Kimberly Akimbo
3. Kevin Del Aguila-Some Like It Hot
4. Jordan Donica-Camelot
5. Kevin Cahoon-Shucked

When Gordon Cox spoke with voters for Variety, he reported that Alex Newell is the clear frontrunner here. Newell’s signature number in Shucked, 'Independently Owned,' is exactly the kind of showstopper that wins awards. Voters have mentioned Newell’s name most often as their choice, although there’s also affection for Justin Cooley’s charming performance in Kimberly Akimbo and Kevin Del Aguila’s scene-stealing turn in Some Like It Hot. Similar to J. Harrison Ghee, Alex Newell is the very first openly non-binary performer to have ever been nominated in this category, and is looking like they'll be the first to win as well.

Best Performance By a Featured Actress in a Musical:

1. Bonnie Milligan-Kimberly Akimbo
2. NaTasha Yvette Williams-Some Like It Hot
3. Betsy Wolfe-& Juliet
4. Ruthie Ann Miles-Sweeney Todd
5. Julia Lester-Into the Woods

According to Variety, Bonnie Milligan has pulled ahead of the pack here. She's earned votes with a performance that boasts the closest thing to show-stopping numbers in the quietly intimate Kimberly Akimbo, and shows off deft coming timing along the way. NaTasha Yvette Williams has also been mentioned, and Ruthie Ann Miles is a Broadway favorite, but in this race, the trophy looks like it’s Milligan’s to lose. She's been a fan favorite since her debut in the short-lived Go-Go's jukebox musical, Head Over Heels, back in 2018. Now, Bonnie Milligan has found the right role to really establish herself as a force to be reckoned with.
​
Best Direction of a Musical:

1. Jessica Stone-Kimberly Akimbo
2. Michael Arden-Parade
3. Casey Nicholaw-Some Like It Hot
4. Lear deBessonet-Into the Woods​
5. Jack O'Brien-Shucked

According to Variety, Michael Arden has attracted votes for his illuminating production of Parade, which breathes fresh emotional life into a musical that’s become a theater-aficionado favorite since it premiered in 1998. He has built a lot of respect as a director since his Spring Awakening revival in 2015 and also had his one-man stage adaptation of A Christmas Carol starring Jefferson Mays running this past holiday season. Although mentioned almost as often is Jessica Stone, the well-liked former actress returning to Broadway with her tonally delicate staging of the comedy-drama Kimberly Akimbo. Arden seems to have a slight lead here, but Stone could also walk away with the trophy. I'm sticking with the latter given how more challenging it is to shepherd a new musical. If Jessica Stone wins, this would be the first time this category was won by a woman two years in a row following Marianne Elliott's victory for Company last year. Though if Michael Arden wins, this could be where we see the surge for Parade in revival

Best Original Score:

1. Kimberly Akimbo-Music By Jeanine Tesori, Lyrics By David Lindsay-Abaire
2. Shucked-Music & Lyrics By Brandy Clark & Shane McAnally
3. Some Like It Hot-Music By Marc Shaiman, Lyrics By Marc Shaiman & Scott Wittman
4. KPOP-Music & Lyrics By Helen Park & Max Vernon
5. Almost Famous-Music By Tom Kitt, Lyrics By Cameron Crowe & Tom Kitt

According to Variety, the voters who are checking the Best Musical box for Kimberly Akimbo are also casting their vote for Jeanine Tesori and David Lindsay-Abaire’s score, which finds a musical match for the show’s mix of comedy and wistfulness. Although Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman’s songs for Some Like It Hot got some love too, the competition here appears to be Shucked, which brings new-to-Broadway songwriters Brandy Clark and Shane McAnally to the boards with a score that successfully lends a country-music twang to old-fashioned musical theater. However, it looks like this one will go to Kimberly Akimbo. If it does, expect the Best Musical award to follow.

Best Book of a Musical:

1. Kimberly Akimbo-David Lindsay-Abaire
2. Some Like It-Matthew López & Amber Ruffin
3. & Juliet-David West Read
4. Shucked-Robert Horn
5. New York, New York-David Thompson & Sharon Washington

According to Variety, a few voters seem to balk at voting for David Lindsay-Abaire for a book that adapts Kimberly Akimbo from his own 20-year-old play, but even many of those who express that hesitation still lean toward giving him the award anyway. Matthew López and Amber Ruffin’s redux of Some Like It Hot also earned appreciation for its interweaving of contemporary ideas of gender and race into the plot of the classic film. That also helped Robert Horn win this award for Tootsie back in 2019. Although the unexpected ingenuity of & Juliet also has its adherents for how David West Read incorporated all these pre-existing songs co-written by Max Martin into a completely original story. Even so, Lindsay-Abaire looks like the one to beat here.

Best Choreography:

1. Casey Nicholaw-Some Like It Hot
2. Susan Stroman-New York, New York
3. Jennifer Weber-& Juliet
4. Steven Hoggett-Sweeney Todd
5. Jennifer Weber-KPOP

According to Variety, director-choreographer Casey Nicholaw is the clear favorite in this category: He was the name that came up most for his polished, razzle-dazzle work in Some Like It Hot. The Broadway veteran has also never won a choreography Tony (he previously won for co-directing The Book of Mormon), and the former dancer seems like he’s overdue. The closest thing he has to competition is another Broadway veteran, Susan Stroman, who staged one of the spring season’s most memorable sequences with her construction-girder tap dance in New York, New York. Jennifer Weber, double nominated for & Juliet and KPOP, has also came up in conversations with voters, but overall, it looks like Nicholaw has this one in the bag.

Best Orchestrations:

1. John Clancy-Kimberly Akimbo
2. Dominic Fallacaro & Bill Sherman-& Juliet
3. Bryan Carter & Charlie Rosen-Some Like It Hot
4. Sam Davis & Daryl Waters-New York, New York
5. Jason Howland-Shucked

I literally have no idea what the hell to do with this category. I can see anyone of the nominees taking it. Since 2018, the winners for Best Orchestrations have only been voted on by a small peer group. From that moment on, every show that came out on top here was the Best Musical winner...until Girl From the North Country beat A Strange Loop last year. According to Gold Derby's odds, Some Like It Hot is the frontrunner. While I can definitely see it winning given the lushness of the orchestra, the last time a musical lost Best Original Score but still won here was Billy Elliot back in 2009 (in a tie with Next to Normal, which prevailed in the former category). Although if Some Like It Hot ends up winning this and Score, then that would make more sense. As for the other nominees, & Juliet had the difficult task of taking all these different sounding songs and giving them a consistent sound for the musical. New York, New York took all these songs from the legendary catalogue of John Kander/Fred Ebb and gave them the sound an MGM musical. Shucked created such a unique sound with its country music score. Yet voters might just default to the more intricate sounds of Kimberly Akimbo due to it being the Best Musical frontrunner. I'll probably keep going back and forth in my mind about what the hell is happening in this category until the envelope is open.

Be sure to watch the Tonys tomorrow night at 8:00 eastern/5:00 pacific on CBS. Here is a quick rundown of my predictions for the design categories, which are all likely going to be presented during the 90 minute pre-show on Pluto TV (which begins at 6:30pm eastern/3:30pm pacific)...

​Best Sound Design of a Musical:

1. Scott Lehrer & Alex Neumann-Into the Woods
2. Gareth Owen-& Juliet
3. Kai Harada-New York, New York
4. Nevin Steinberg-Sweeney Todd
5. John Shivers-Shucked

Best Lighting Design of a Musical:

1. Natasha Katz-Sweeney Todd
2. Ken Billington-New York, New York
3. Howard Hudson-& Juliet
4. Natasha Katz-Some Like It Hot
5. Heather Gilbert-Parade
6. Lap Chi Chu-Camelot

Best Scenic Design of a Musical:

1. Beowulf Boritt-New York, New York
2. Scott Pask-Some Like It Hot
3. Mimi Lien-Sweeney Todd
4. Michael Yeargan & 59 Productions-Camelot
5. Scott Pask-Shucked

Best Costume Design of a Musical:

1. Gregg Barnes-Some Like It Hot
2. Paloma Young-& Juliet​
3. Donna Zakowska-New York, New York
4. Jennifer Moeller-Camelot
5. Susan Hilferty-Parade
6. Sophia Choi & Clint Ramos-KPOP