The 2022 Tony Awards are almost here, so let’s make some predictions, shall we? On this page, I’ll be discussing my predictions for the play categories. By the way, you'll be seeing me reference the New York Times' recently published Tony voter poll (which surveyed about 181 out of 650 voters) a lot.
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Best Play:

1. The Lehman Trilogy
2. Clyde's
3. Hangmen
4. Skeleton Crew
5. The Minutes

According to the New York Times, this category seems certain to go to The Lehman Trilogy, a riveting history lesson that chronicles the rise and fall of the Lehman Brothers financial empire in New York City. The play was originally written by an Italian playwright, Stefano Massini, and then adapted by a British writer, Ben Power. After productions in Europe, it was produced Off-Broadway at the Park Avenue Armory in 2019, and that staging was the talk of the town, becoming a best seller for the nonprofit, with some seats going for several thousand dollars. The Lehman Trilogy originally began previews on Broadway less than a week before theaters shut down in March 2020. It eventually resumed performances a year and a half later and finally opened last October. The run sold well, particularly given that much of it overlapped with the surge of the Omicron variant, and it ended January 2nd before the production moved to Los Angeles for another brief run. A supermajority of voters surveyed believe that The Lehman Trilogy was the best play of the season, and those who do not support it are splitting their votes among the other four contenders, making any other outcome improbable.
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Best Revival of a Play:

1. Take Me Out
2. How I Learned to Drive
3. for colored girls who have considered suicide/when the rainbow is enuf
4. American Buffalo
5. Trouble in Mind

According to the Times, the race for Best Revival of a Play, with its particularly strong field, is too close to call. Among the voters surveyed, a plurality consisting of approximately one-quarter of those interviewed is supporting Take Me Out, about how a baseball team reacts when a player comes out as gay. But there is also support for each of the other four other contenders: American Buffalo, for colored girls..., How I Learned to Drive, and Trouble in Mind, any one of which could still win in a tight race among a small group of voters where a handful of ballots could make a difference. Statistically speaking, American Buffalo or for colored girls... should be winning as they're the only contenders here that also have directing nominations. What especially helps the latter is that it was the little show that could. The production was originally announced to run until August, but due to low grosses, it posted an early closing notice for last month. Though after Tony nominations were announced, the revival got a bit of a boost at the box office, thus the producers added two more weeks to the run. When Gordon Cox spoke with voters for a recent article for Variety, Take Me Out was most often cited as the show to beat here. He also mentioned that How I Learned to Drive and Trouble in Mind both commanded respect as outstanding productions of shows getting long-overdue Broadway spotlights. Both of them (especially the former in particular) look to have a real shot at the prize. What I can definitely see helping How I Learned to Drive is that if it were to win, playwright Paula Vogel would get a Tony too since the original work isn't eligible for Best Play due to it being considered a "classic." Though with the Times and Variety both giving a slight edge to Take Me Out, I might just play it safe by predicting that.
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Best Performance By a Leading Actor in a Play:

1. Simon Russell Beale-The Lehman Trilogy
2. David Morse-How I Learned to Drive
3. Ruben Santiago-Hudson-Lackawanna Blues
4. Sam Rockwell-American Buffalo
5. David Threlfall-Hangmen
6. Adam Godley-The Lehman Trilogy
7. Adrien Lester-The Lehman Trilogy

For a while, I had thought that the three stars of The Lehman Trilogy would all cancel each other out in this category because I wasn't sure which one Tony voters would rally around most. Therefore, my predicted winner was David Morse for How I Learned to Drive. He's this veteran character actor reprising a role he previously originated Off-Broadway 25 years ago. Then again, he's playing a sexual abuser in the show, so that could be a strike against him. Though according to the Times, a plurality of voters surveyed actually favor one of the Lehman stars, the great British actor Simon Russell Beale, in the unusual seven-nominee race. Beale’s career has been spent mostly on the British stage, and this would be his first Tony Award. I guess it also helps that he apparently had a captivating opening 15-minute monologue. Variety may suggest that this race could go in any direction, but I'm gonna base my predictions here more on what the Times said.
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Best Performance By a Leading Actress in a Play:

1. Mary-Louise Parker-How I Learned to Drive
2. Deidre O'Connell-Dana H.
3. LaChanze-Trouble in Mind
4. Gabby Beans-The Skin of Our Teeth
5. Ruth Negga-Macbeth

Within the past month and a half, I was settled on Mary-Louise Parker winning a third Tony for her performance as a woman abused by her uncle in How I Learned to Drive. COVID-19 delaying that production might’ve been the best thing to have happened to her because she only got to contend (and win) for The Sound Inside at the previous Tony Awards. When How I Learned to Drive opened, it looked like she was going to become the very first performer to have won Best Lead Actress in a Play two years in a row. Though according to the Times, Deirdre O’Connell, who uncannily lip-synced recorded interviews with a kidnapping victim in Dana H. back in the fall, has a modest edge among the voters surveyed. But the margin was not big enough to predict what will happen with any confidence. The other leading contenders appear to be Mary-Louise as well as LaChanze, for her performance as a truth-telling actress in Trouble in Mind. Now, I have no idea what the hell to do. Variety even suggests that those latter two have the lead in this race. Mary-Louise does have a narrative of returning to a role that she previously originated Off-Broadway 25 years ago. Although the fact that she just won a second Tony last year could be somewhat of a detriment to her chances of winning this year. For now, I'm just gonna stick with Mary-Louise, though I can easily see myself making a last minute switch to Deidre O'Connell.

Now onto the categories the Times did not cover in their survey...

Best Performance By a Featured Actor in a Play:

1. Jesse Tyler Ferguson-Take Me Out
2. Chuck Cooper-Trouble in Mind
3. Jesse Williams-Take Me Out
4. Ron Cephas Jones-Clyde's
5. Alfie Allen-Hangmen
6. Michael Oberholtzer-Take Me Out

The category this year is literally such a toss-up. Jesse Tyler Ferguson is in the role that won Denis O'Hare a Tony for the original production of Take Me Out back in 2003. He even managed to do so up against his co-star, Daniel Sunjata, who was in the role that Jesse Williams is nominated for. Not to mention that many have also seen Michael Oberholtzer as a standout in Second Stage's revival. Do they all cancel each other out? I've heard that Williams has been making the biggest impression among those who've seen the production. What could be beneficial to him is that his character is arguably the lead of Take Me Out, but the Tony Administration Committee declared Richard Greenberg's play as an ensemble piece. Then again, I can see a case made for Chuck Cooper or Ron Cephas Jones. They're both veteran character actors who were considered standouts in their respective shows back in the fall. Although Variety said that Jesse Tyler Ferguson is the one that edges out the competition in this category.

Best Performance By a Featured Actress in a Play:

1. Kenita R. Miller-for colored girls who have considered suicide/when the rainbow is enuf
2. Uzo Aduba-Clyde's
3. Phylicia Rashad-Skeleton Crew
4. Rachel Dratch-POTUS: Or, Behind Every Great Dumbass are Seven Women Trying to Keep Him Alive
5. Kara Young-Clyde's
6. Julie White-POTUS: Or, Behind Every Great Dumbass are Seven Women Trying to Keep Him Alive

While this category isn't as tricky to figure out as the previous, it still is nonetheless. For a while, I was predicting Kenita R. Miller to take it because those who got to see her in for colored girls... felt that she was the standout. She apparently had quite a shattering monologue to work with. Not to mention that Kenita did most of the run while she was in the very late stages of her pregnancy. Wouldn't that be lovely if she received a Tony in addition to her newborn baby? Although I can definitely see cases made for Uzo Aduba or Phylicia Rashad, both of whom are acclaimed television actresses who made their grand return to Broadway for the first time in over a decade this past winter with standout roles in ensemble pieces. Aduba won the Outer Critics' Circle Award for Clyde's while Rashad won the Drama Desk (as a lead) for Skeleton Crew. Then again, neither of those groups has any voter overlap with the Tonys. However, Variety mentioned that Uzo was the name that most often came up in this category from voters they spoke with. She has pulled off upsets at the Emmys before, so it wouldn't surprise me too much to see her pull an upset at the Tonys. Though for now, I'm just gonna stick with Kenita, but I can easily see myself making a last minute switch to Uzo Aduba.

Best Direction of a Play:

1. Sam Mendes-The Lehman Trilogy
2. Camille A. Brown-for colored girls who have considered suicide/when the rainbow is enuf
3. Lileana Blain-Cruz-The Skin of Our Teeth
4. Neil Pepe-American Buffalo
5. Les Waters-Dana H.

Had Broadway not shut down due to COVID-19 on March 12th, 2020 and the 2019-20 season got to conclude properly, Sam Mendes likely would've won this award two years in a row following his prize for The Ferryman. But hey, better late than never as he likely has this in the bag for the epic scope he managed to mount for The Lehman Trilogy. Variety said that the love for the play makes Mendes the likeliest winner in this category.

Be sure to watch the Tonys tomorrow night at 8:00 eastern/5:00 pacific on CBS. Here is a quick rundown of my predictions for the design categories, which are all likely going to be presented during the hour-long pre-show on Paramount+ (which begins at 7:00pm eastern/4:00pm pacific)...

Best Sound Design of a Play:

1. Mikhail Fiksel-Dana H.
2. Dominic Bilkey & Nick Powell-The Lehman Trilogy
3. Justin Ellington-for colored girls who have considered suicide/when the rainbow is enuf
4. Palmer Hefferan-The Skin of Our Teeth
5. Mikaal Sulaiman-Macbeth

Best Lighting Design of a Play:​​

1. Jon Clark-The Lehman Trilogy
2. Jiyoun Chang-for colored girls who have considered suicide/when the rainbow is enuf
3. Yi Zhao-The Skin of Our Teeth
4. Joshua Carr-Hangmen
5. Jane Cox-Macbeth

Best Scenic Design of a Play:

1. Adam Rigg-The Skin of Our Teeth
2. Es Devlin-The Lehman Trilogy
3. Anna Fleischle-Hangmen
4. Scott Pask-American Buffalo
5. Beowulf Boritt-POTUS: Or, Behind Every Great Dumbass are Seven Women Trying to Keep Him Alive
6. Michael Carnahan & Nicholas Hussong-Skeleton Crew

Best Costume Design of a Play:

1. Montana Levi Blanco-The Skin of Our Teeth
2. Emilio Sosa-Trouble in Mind
3. Jane Greenwood-Plaza Suite
4. Sarafina Bush-for colored girls who have considered suicide/when the rainbow is enuf
5. Jennifer Moeller-Clyde's