The 2022 Tony Awards are almost here, so let’s make some predictions, shall we? On this page, I’ll be discussing my predictions for the musical categories. I'll also be providing links to a sample of as many of the nominated performances as I can find. By the way, you'll be seeing me reference the New York Times' recently published Tony voter poll (which surveyed about 181 out of 650 voters) a lot.

Best Musical:

1. A Strange Loop​
2. MJ
3. Six
4. Girl From the North Country
5. Mr. Saturday Night
6. Paradise Square

According to the Times, voters praised A Strange Loop’s originality and its raw honesty. As is true with every show, this one also has its skeptics — some voters find the songs unmemorable, or the explicitness off-putting — but in the Tony race, it is benefiting from the fact that there is no consensus about any of the other nominees. Some industry veterans have suggested that Tony voters who live outside New York might be reluctant to support A Strange Loop because its sexual content could make it challenging to produce on tour. But that does not appear to be a decisive factor: the show is favored by half of the voters surveyed; about one-fifth are supporting MJ, the musical about Michael Jackson, which they uniformly praised as entertaining, and the other contenders have less support. Before all of Broadway shutdown in March of 2020, the Best Musical race at that point was shaping up to be between Girl From the North Country and Six. Yet, the former show, which very inventively utilizes the songs of Bob Dylan in a completely original story, has proven to be divisive (at least among general audiences). Meanwhile, the latter show, which is a modern retelling of the lives of Henry VIII's six wives presented as a pop concert, seems to have lost some heat among voters who no longer think of it as a new show because its run began before the pandemic. It was literally hours away from opening on Broadway when everything shutdown on March 12th, 2020 and was the first new musical production to have opened when performances all over the New York theatre district resumed performances last fall. But shed no tears for Six: it is proving to be hugely successful, with strong box office grosses and a thriving touring market. Throughout most of this past decade, the industry has been championing the more original musical most at the Tonys, and it looks like the trend will continue this year with A Strange Loop.

​Best Revival of a Musical:

1. Company
2. Caroline, or Change​
3. ​The Music Man​

According to the Times, the death of legendary musical theatre songwriter Stephen Sondheim was among the biggest theater stories of the last season, and it appears that Tony voters are now inclined to honor the final Broadway production that he worked on with the prize in this category. About half of voters surveyed said they are choosing the gender-reversed revival of Company, which Sondheim strongly supported before his death. The show, which was first produced in 1970, previously centered on a man contemplating his single life as he turns 35; this version, directed by Marianne Elliott, puts a woman in the same predicament. Company appears to have twice as much support as its nearest competitor, Caroline, or Change, which previously ended its limited run back in January. I think this is probably one of the easiest calls of the night.

Best Performance By a Leading Actor in a Musical:

1. Jaquel Spivey-A Strange Loop
2. Myles Frost-MJ
3. Hugh Jackman-The Music Man
4. Billy Crystal-Mr. Saturday Night
5. Rob McClure-Mrs. Doubtfire

According to the Times, voters are evenly split between two young actors in this category, both of whom actually made their professional stage debut this past season. Myles Frost, who's 22, is nominated for his convincing depiction of a driven Michael Jackson in MJ. Jaquel Spivey, who's 23, is nominated for his soul-baring performance as the self-doubting protagonist in A Strange Loop. Both have wowed audiences, in very different ways. Each of them has support from about one-third of voters. What would be remarkable about Frost winning is that he originally wasn't even supposed to star in MJ. Ephraim Sykes was set to do so at first, but a conflict that came up in his schedule forced him to drop out. So the producers took a chance on a young newcomer, and many felt he delivered big time. Although with A Strange Loop being more ahead in the Best Musical race, I think it would make more sense for its star, Jaquel Spivey, to win. He has reportedly been wowing audiences in the demanding central lead of that show, so I'm sticking with him.

Best Performance By a Leading Actress in a Musical:​​

1. Sharon D. Clarke-Caroline, or Change
2. Joaquina Kalukango-Paradise Square
3. Sutton Foster-The Music Man
4. Mare Winningham-Girl From the North Country
5. Carmen Cusack-Flying Over Sunset

According to the Times, voters are torn in this category. The race is between Sharon D. Clarke, who played the pained but powerful maid at the heart of the Caroline, or Change revival, and Joaquina Kalukango, who plays a determined tavern owner in the new musical Paradise Square. Variety said in a recent article that the latter could have a slight edge, although the former made a strong impression among voters they spoke with. Clarke's performance was considered a must-see event when Caroline, or Change had its limited run back in the fall. To this day, no permanently closed musical production has won an acting award at the Tonys since Martin Short for Little Me back in 1999. Meanwhile, Kalukango could benefit from the fact that her show is still running, and she scored universal raves amid all the downbeat reviews for Paradise Square. I also wonder with Sharon D. Clarke already set to return to Broadway this fall starring opposite Wendell Pierce in a revival of Arthur Miller's Death of a Salesman, could that lead to some voters wanting to save their votes for next year? There were rumors of voters really wanting to give Kelli O'Hara this award in 2014 for The Bridges of Madison County, but since it was already revealed that she was going to star in The King & I the following season, they decided to wait until then. If those rumors were true, then they really ended up being right as Kelli won in 2015 the year after Jessie Mueller prevailed for Beautiful: The Carole King Musical. Though back to this race, I'm sticking with Clarke to the end. If I'm wrong, I'll gladly die on that hill (not literally, of course).

​Now onto the categories the Times did not cover in their survey...

Best Performance By a Featured Actor in a Musical:

1. Matt Doyle-Company
2. John-Andrew Morrison-A Strange Loop
3. A.J. Shively-Paradise Square
4. Sidney DuPont-Paradise Square
5. Jared Grimes-Funny Girl

When Company originally began previews back in March of 2020, everyone in the message boards of BroadwayWorld was raving about Matt Doyle's performance. When I read those reports, I immediately thought "There's your frontrunner in this category." Doyle has thankfully held onto that status when the show resumed performances last November. His character, Jamie (a reimagined version of Amy from the original iteration of the musical), won Jonathan Bailey an Olivier Award for the West End production in 2019. It helps that Doyle gets a standout moment with his rendition of classic tongue twister of a song, 'Getting Married Today.' Variety mentioned that he is the most frequently mentioned choice in this category from voters they spoke with. Although both Jared Grimes and John-Andrew Morrison also got their attention. If any of them upset, I'd look out for Morrison as a possible coattail win for A Strange Loop.

Best Performance By a Featured Actress in a Musical:

1. Patti LuPone-Company
2. L Morgan Lee-A Strange Loop
3. Shoshana Bean-Mr. Saturday Night
4. Jennifer Simard-Company
5. Jeanette Bayardelle-Girl From the North Country
6. Jayne Houdyshell-The Music Man

When Patti LuPone was previously on Broadway in War Paint back in 2017, she felt it was going to be her final musical on the main stem. That was before she agreed to play Joanne (a role she previously tackled in 2011 at the New York Philharmonic) in the 2018 West End revival of Company. There was a ton of buzz for her performance in the London staging, where she ended up winning the Olivier. When it was officially announced that she would be reprising it in the Broadway transfer, everyone immediately knew that she was going to be the one to beat for the Tony. While I can see a world where L Morgan Lee pulls off a big shocker here as a potential coattail win for A Strange Loop (especially given all the headlines she's received as the very first openly trans performer ever Tony nominated), I still wouldn't bet against veteran Sondheim interpreter LuPone. Variety said that the win looks sure to go to her. The Broadway legend is making her mark on the iconic tune, 'The Ladies Who Lunch.'
​
Best Direction of a Musical:

1. Marianna Elliott-Company​
2. Stephen Brackett-A Strange Loop
3. Christopher Wheeldon-MJ
4. Lucy Moss & Jamie Armitage-Six
5. Conor McPherson-Girl From the North Country

For a while, I was predicting Stephen Brackett to prevail for A Strange Loop. Every single winner in this category since 2014 has been for helming a new musical. Directing a brand new musical is much harder to pull off than reimagining a classic, especially if the new work happens to be completely original from top to bottom. Plus, it helps that Brackett is the only American among the nominees here as almost everyone else is a Brit while Conor McPherson is Irish. Then again, his work on A Strange Loop apparently isn't as showy as Marianne Elliott's staging of Company. Variety mentioned that she seems poised to take this for her audacious concept for Stephen Sondheim & George Furth's classic musical. It was her idea to begin with to switch genders for some of the characters, including the lead. So Company is now centered on a woman who's about to turn 35 as opposed to man as usual. If Marianne wins this, she'll become the very first woman to have won Tonys for helming both plays and musicals (she already has two Best Direction of a Play trophies for War Horse and The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time).

Best Original Score:

1. A Strange Loop-Music & Lyrics By Michael R. Jackson
2. Six-Music & Lyrics By Toby Marlow & Lucy Moss
3. Mr. Saturday Night-Music By Jason Robert Brown, Lyrics By Amanda Green
4. Paradise Square-Music By Jason Howland, Lyrics By Nathan Tysen & Masi Asare
5. Flying Over Sunset-Music By Tom Kitt, Lyrics By Michael Korie

According to Variety, this race appears to be Michael R. Jackson's to lose for A Strange Loop, although there are signs that the prize might just go to the widely appreciated pop tunes of Six. Which I think is definitely possible. Voters may feel that Jackson will be awarded enough in the next category while this could be the best place to acknowledge Toby Marlow & Lucy Moss' overall contributions in creating Six. After all, the fact that musical is presented as a pop concert does make the score more front and center. Though given how the show has apparently lost some heat among voters (according to the Times), I'm gonna play it safe by predicting the Best Musical frontrunner here.

Best Book of a Musical:

1. A Strange Loop-Michael R. Jackson
2. MJ-Lynn Nottage
3. Girl From the North Country-Conor McPherson
4. Mr. Saturday Night-Billy Crystal, Lowell Ganz, & Babaloo Mandel
5. Paradise Square-Christina Anderson, Craig Lucas, & Larry Kirwan

Before Broadway shutdown, Conor McPherson was seen as a frontrunner in this category for Girl From the North Country. He was lauded for being able to create a completely original story set to the songs of Bob Dylan in such an inventive way. Though with all the momentum A Strange Loop has in Best Musical, Michael R. Jackson seems poised to take this. No matter what happens in Best Original Score, I think you should definitely expect him to pick up at least one Tony here. His closest competition is probably MJ given that one of the most buzzed about aspects of that show is Lynn Nottage's book. Plus, she really quite a prolific season with not only that, but also her Tony nominated play, Clyde's, as well as Intimate Apparel at Lincoln Center Theater Off-Broadway.

Best Choreography:

1. Christopher Wheeldon-MJ
2. Warren Carlyle-The Music Man
3. Bill T. Jones-Paradise Square
4. Carrie-Anne Ingrouille-Six
5. Camille A. Brown-for colored girls who have considered suicide/when the rainbow is enuf

According to Variety, the dance-heavy show, MJ, is near certain to take this award. I think the fact that Christopher Wheeldon also managed to show up in Best Direction of a Musical gives him an even bigger path towards victory here. It would be a great way to acknowledge his overall contributions. Plus, it's a complete 180 from his work on An American in Paris, which previously won him a Tony in this category back in 2015. I think his closest competition is probably Warren Carlyle given that one of the most buzzed about aspects of the current Music Man revival is indeed the choreography.

Best Orchestrations:

1. Charlie Rosen-A Strange Loop
2. Simon Hale-Girl From the North Country
3. David Cullen-Company
4. Tom Curran-Six
5. David Holcenberg & Jason Michael Webb-MJ

For a while, I was thinking that Simon Hale could win this for the inventive sound he was able to bring to all these classic Bob Dylan songs for Girl From the North Country. I thought he would especially be helped by the fact that the winners in this category have only been voted on by a small peer group since 2018. However, Daniel Kluger provided some inventive orchestrations for the most recent Broadway of Oklahoma! in 2019, reconceiving that classic Rodgers & Hammerstein score to be performed by a small seven-piece band. Yet, he ended up losing to the Best Musical winner, Hadestown. When Best Orchestrations was first introduced in 1997, the champion has gone hand-in-hand with the victor for Best Original Score about 15 times out of 22. So therefore, I'm predicting Charlie Rosen to take this for A Strange Loop.

Be sure to watch the Tonys tomorrow night at 8:00 eastern/5:00 pacific on CBS. Here is a quick rundown of my predictions for the design categories, which are all likely going to be presented during the hour-long pre-show on Paramount+ (which begins at 7:00pm eastern/4:00pm pacific)...

​Best Sound Design of a Musical:

1. Paul Gatehouse-Six
2. Gareth Owen-MJ
3. Simon Baker-Girl From the North Country
4. Ian Dickinson for Autograph-Company
5. Drew Levy-A Strange Loop

Best Lighting Design of a Musical:

1. Tim Deiling-Six
2. Natasha Katz-MJ
3. Neil Austin-Company
4. Jen Schriever-A Strange Loop
5. Bradley King-Flying Over Sunset
6. Donald Holder-Paradise Square

Best Scenic Design of a Musical:

1. Beowulf Boritt & 59 Productions-Flying Over Sunset
2. Bunny Christie-Company
3. Derek McLane & Peter Nigrini-MJ
4. Arnulfo Maldonado-A Strange Loop
5. Allen Moyer-Paradise Square

Best Costume Design of a Musical:

1. Santo Loquasto-The Music Man
2. Gabriella Slade-Six
3. Paul Tazewell-MJ
4. Fly Davis-Caroline, or Change
5. Toni-Leslie James-Paradise Square
6. William Ivey Long-Diana