74th Primetime
Emmy Award Predictions (Drama Series)

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The 74th Primetime Emmy Awards are coming up! There’s so much to do in so little time, so I shall now be giving you my predictions for the Drama Series categories.

Outstanding Drama Series:
  1. Succession
  2. Squid Game
  3. Severance
  4. Ozark
  5. Yellowjackets
  6. Euphoria
  7. Better Call Saul
  8. Stranger Things
Succession is literally the most nominated program of everything else at this year's Emmys. It has 12 above-the-line nominations alone, though of all categories, that would be 25. Now as with the case at any awards show in general, just because it has the most nominations, doesn't mean it's winning big. Then again, about 13 of its bids are in acting categories, and the actors branch is the largest branch of the TV academy. Plus, the buzz and enthusiasm for that show keeps growing more and more every single season. I have a feeling that it's gonna be a mainstay at the Emmys for as long as the iron is hot. Although if anything somehow manages to rise above it, I'd lookout for Squid Game. That series from Korea became a global hit with critics and audiences alike ever since it debuted on Netflix last fall. It could be an underdog, but I wouldn't count on it to win this year.

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Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series:
  1. Lee Jung-jae-Squid Game
  2. Brian Cox-Succession
  3. Jason Bateman-Ozark
  4. Adam Scott-Severance
  5. Bob Odenkirk-Better Call Saul
  6. Jeremy Strong-Succession
Since 2011, a lot of the winners we’ve had in this category have either been for their first year or a last year on their respective shows. So far, the only exception to that rule was Jeremy Strong, who won for the second season of Succession in 2020. He may be back in contention this year, but we haven't gotten a repeat winner in this category since Bryan Cranston won for the final season of Breaking Bad back in 2014. At the winter awards earlier this year, Lee Jung-jae won the SAG and Critics' Choice Awards for his performance on Netflix's breakout series from Korea, Squid Game. The former is especially worth taking into account given that it's a populist industry group, and he managed to beat out three men from Succession (Brian Cox, Kieran Culkin, and Jeremy Strong). I think everyone should bet on Jung-jae to win the Emmy.
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Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series:
  1. Melanie Lynskey-Yellowjackets
  2. Zendaya-Euphoria
  3. Laura Linney-Ozark
  4. Sandra Oh-Killing Eve
  5. Jodie Comer-Killing Eve
  6. Reese Witherspoon-The Morning Show
I haven't gotten this category right since Elisabeth Moss won for the first season of The Handmaid's Tale back in 2017. Since then, I predicted her to repeat in 2018 instead of Claire Foy for The Crown, I predicted Sandra Oh to win for Killing Eve in 2019 instead of her co-star, Jodie Comer, I predicted Olivia Colman to win for The Crown in 2020 instead of Zendaya for Euphoria, and I predicted Emma Corrin to win for The Crown last year instead of her co-star, the aforementioned Colman. In fact, every single winner in this category since 2018 was considered a surprise. The odds on Gold Derby are settled on Zendaya pulling off a second win for Euphoria, which is definitely possible. That show improved a lot in Emmy nominations this year, including a bid for Outstanding Drama Series. At the Creative Arts Awards last weekend, Euphoria did pretty well overall by winning five accolades, including Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series for Colman Domingo. With all of that in mind, it sounds like I should be predicting Zendaya. However, we have not gotten a repeat winner in this category since Julianna Margulies for The Good Wife back in 2014. So taking that into account along with the aforementioned surprises we've gotten here lately, I'm not sure if Zendaya could really do it. Melanie Lynskey has gotten a lot of acclaim from critics, industry, and audiences for her performance on the first season of Yellowjackets. She did win the Critics' Choice earlier this year. Meanwhile, Laura Linney is in contention for the final season of Ozark. She's won four Emmys in the past, most of which were considered upsets. Then again, her character on the show might be too sinister for a majority of voters to rally around. Whatever you see on this page now could be totally different by the time this award is presented.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series:
  1. Kieran Culkin-Succession
  2. Oh Young-soo-Squid Game
  3. Matthew Macfadyen-Succession
  4. John Turturro-Severance
  5. Billy Crudup-The Morning Show
  6. Park Hae-soo-Squid Game
  7. Christopher Walken-Severance
  8. Nicholas Braun-Succession
There may be three men from Succession nominated here, but there appears to be more enthusiasm surrounding Kieran Culkin, who apparently had the flashiest performance this past season compared to Nicholas Braun and Matthew Macfadyen. Flashy performances tend to do very well at the Emmys. Culkin did manage to win the Critics' Choice in this category earlier this year over both Braun and Macfadyen. Although if they all cancel each other out, Oh Young-soo could pull ahead if Squid Game does really well with the actors branch. Then again, Billy Crudup is the only contender here who is not up against a co-star, and he did win for the first season of The Morning Show two years ago. I wouldn't count on him to repeat, but it's not impossible.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series:
  1. Julia Garner-Ozark
  2. Jung Ho-yeon-Squid Game
  3. Sarah Snook-Succession
  4. Patricia Arquette-Severance
  5. Rhea Seehorn-Better Call Saul
  6. Sydney Sweeney-Euphoria
  7. Christina Ricci-Yellowjackets
  8. J. Smith Cameron-Succession
While audiences were divided over how the final season of Ozark ended, one aspect of it that definitely received constant praise was Julia Garner's performance. She won this award for the previous two seasons in 2019 and 2020, the latter of which was quite a surprise given how competitive the race was that year. The fact that Garner also managed to receive a surprise bid for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series for Inventing Anna this year I think helps her out a lot in this category. Although if anyone pulls an upset, I think Jung Ho-yeon in Squid Game is a possibility. She won the SAG Award earlier this year, and that could give her a leg up like how it likely will for Lee Jung-jae in his category.

The 74th Primetime Emmy Awards air on NBC this Monday night at 8:00.
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