The 2019 Tony Awards are almost here, so let’s make some predictions, shall we? On this page, I’ll be discussing my predictions for the musical categories. I'll also be providing links to a sample of as many of the nominated performances as I can find. By the way, you'll be seeing me reference the New York Times' recently published Tony voter poll (which surveyed about 123 out of 831 voters) a lot.

Best Musical:

1. Hadestown
2. The Prom
3. Tootsie
4. Ain’t Too Proud
5. ​Beetlejuice

Hadestown, which is facing off against musical comedies, screen-to-stage adaptations, and a jukebox musical, is the artsy contender, born in the nonprofit world with a score by Anaïs Mitchell, a singer-songwriter from Vermont. It seems to have a solid, although not insurmountable, lead for Best Musical, though the show isn’t for everyone. A number of voters complained that the storytelling was underwhelming, and they don’t understand what the fuss is about. Though its enthusiasts, citing a moving score and mesmerizing stagecraft, are passionate and numerous. Even though Hadestown is based on an oft-adapted Greek myth of Orpheus and Eurydice, many voters cited 'originality' as a key factor in their support. One voter specifically told the Times: "Hadestown was not only the best musical, it was the only good one, with an unforgettable score which I’ll be listening to for years after these others become trivia questions,” said one voter. Another voter simply said: “This is my kind of hell.” The musical is also benefiting from the absence of a consensus alternative. The show with the strongest shot of overtaking it appears to be The Prom, which is an original musical about a high school inclusion controversy. Though Tootsie and Ain’t Too Proud were reportedly not far behind. As we've seen in recent years, Tony voters have been championing shows that really push the boundaries of musical theater such as Once, Fun Home, Hamilton, Dear Evan Hansen, and The Band's Visit. I think Hadestown fits perfectly in that mold.

​Best Revival of a Musical:

1. Oklahoma!
2. Kiss Me, Kate​

Among the musical revivals, a revisionist production of Oklahoma! appears to have impressed many more voters than the only alternative, a more traditional production of Kiss Me, Kate. While Oklahoma! appears to have a number of people voting against it (some of whom view its reframing of the denouement as sacrilegious) those critics appear to be substantially outnumbered by those who appreciate the fresh take, and even some skeptics said they chose to reward its ambition. One voter specifically told the Times: “The director (Daniel Fish) breathed new life into a tired, old show." Another said: “I’m sure it’s divisive, and there are parts that had me questioning it myself, but it made me think, and I heard things in the show I hadn’t heard the other hundred times I had seen it.” Despite the divisive nature of Oklahoma!, I think Tony voters are more likely to champion this particular production as it really pushes the boundaries of staging a classic musical.

Best Performance By a Leading Actor in a Musical:

1. Santino Fontana-Tootsie
2. Damon Daunno-Oklahoma!
3. Brooks Ashmanskas-The Prom
4. Derrick Baskin-Ain’t Too Proud
5. Alex Brightman-Beetlejuice

Santino Fontana has been impressing voters with his virtuosic performance as Michael Dorsey, an underemployed actor, and Dorothy Michaels, the woman Dorsey pretends to be, in Tootsie, a role made famous on film by Dustin Hoffman. One voter specifically told the Times: “A remarkable piece of acting.” Another said: “Loved everything he did in the role. Didn’t see him working — it all came so easily to him.” It looks like the Broadway favorite will officially be turned into a bonafide star tomorrow night.

Best Performance By a Leading Actress in a Musical:​​

1. Stephanie J. Block-The Cher Show
2. Beth Leavel-The Prom
3. Eva Noblezada-Hadestown
4. Kelli O’Hara-Kiss Me, Kate
5. ​​Caitlin Kinnunen-The Prom

Stephanie J. Block, who is playing the eldest of three versions of Cher in The Cher Show, is way ahead in this race. Ms. Block has a trifecta of factors in her favor — the voters are impressed by her performance, they love her personally and they admire a body of work that has seen her nominated twice before. One voter specifically told the Times: “The right performer at the right time with the right role." While I have previously doubted Stephanie's chances of winning all season long given the whole industry bias against commodity musicals coupled with the fact that no performer has won this award for a show that wasn't nominated for Best Musical (nor Revival) since Heather Headley for Aida back in 2000, the Times has just convinced me otherwise. I guess there's always gotta be rules made to be broken.

​Now onto the categories the Times did not cover in their survey...

Best Performance By a Featured Actor in a Musical:

1. André De Shields-Hadestown
2. Patrick Page-Hadestown
3. Andy Grotelueschen-Tootsie
4. Jeremy Pope-Ain’t Too Proud
5. Ephraim Sykes-Ain’t Too Proud​

Early on in the season, I thought Patrick Page would be the more likely winner for Hadestown in this category. He's a Broadway veteran who finally received his first Tony nomination this year for such a villainous role as Hades. However, André De Shields is the most respected actor out of all the nominees. He's been working on Broadway since the 1970's, yet it took him until 1997 before he became a Tony nominee for Play On!. He was later nominated again in 2001 for The Full Monty, and now his third nomination might just be the charm. While it is possible both André and Patrick could split their support, De Shields appears to have more of a standout role in Hadestown as he plays Hermes, who is the narrator. I've heard that it's suppose to be a flashier character who bookends the entire musical. Though if Tony voters are able to decide between Jeremy Pope and Ephraim Sykes for Ain't Too Proud​, I’d actually lean a little more towards Pope given that he has the narrative of making his Broadway debut in two separate shows this past season, resulting in Tony nominations for both of his performances. With Choir Boy no longer running and Bryan Cranston being the favorite to win Lead Actor in a Play, Featured Actor in a Musical could be the way voters can award Jeremy Pope.

Best Performance By a Featured Actress in a Musical:

1. Amber Gray-Hadestown
2. Ali Stroker-Oklahoma!
3. Sarah Stiles-Tootsie
4. Mary Testa-Oklahoma!
5. Lilli Cooper-Tootsie

This has to be the hardest musical acting category to predict this year. Ali Stroker has the narrative of becoming the first performer in a wheelchair to have made it to Broadway in the Michael Arden-helmed revival of Spring Awakening back in 2015. Now she's been wowing audiences with her performance as Ado Annie in Oklahoma!, especially given that it's a role in the show that doesn't usually standout. However, her co-star Mary Testa is also in contention, and she's a Broadway veteran playing Aunt Eller, a character who usually does standout. I have a feeling that Testa is going to receive just as many votes, which of course can potentially lead to vote-splitting. Amber Gray is the only nominee in this category who is not up against a co-star. I've also heard that her performance and character in Hadestown, Persephone, is a definite standout. With both of those factors in mind, I'm predicting Gray to win.
​
Best Direction of a Musical:

1. Rachel Chavkin-Hadestown
2. Daniel Fish-Oklahoma!
3. Scott Ellis-Tootsie
4. Des McAnuff-Ain’t Too Proud
5. Casey Nicholaw-The Prom

While a lot of people (myself included) did predict Rachel Chavkin to win for The Great Comet two years ago despite coming up short in the end to Christopher Ashley for Come From Away, I think she'll actually take it this time for the Best Musical frontrunner, Hadestown​. Then again, I could see Daniel Fish winning for his think outside the box approach to Oklahoma!. Those who have long been familiar with the Rodgers & Hammerstein classic can easily be able to notice that the current Broadway revival is all 100% his vision.

Best Original Score:

1. Hadestown-Music & Lyrics By Anaïs Mitchell
2. The Prom-Music By Matthew Sklar, Lyrics By Chad Beguelin
3. Tootsie-Music & Lyrics By David Yazbek
4. Beetlejuice-Music & Lyrics By Eddie Perfect
5. To Kill a Mockingbird-Music By Adam Guettel
6. Be More Chill-Music & Lyrics By Joe Iconis

This is probably one of the best bets for Hadestown​ on Tony night. Anaïs Mitchell has spent the last 13 years writing the show, even making modifications to both the book and score. It also helps that she was able to create a song cycle with such a distinct, unique sound. If Anaïs wins, she'll become the second sole woman to have ever won Best Original Score following Cyndi Lauper for Kinky Boots back in 2013. The only alternative I could possibly see upsetting her is The Prom given how much of an underdog that show has become. I also don't have that winning anything else, so maybe Tony voters could throw a bone to it here for Chad Beguelin & Matthew Sklar's score. David Yazbek may be in that honeymoon period from his win for The Band's Visit last year, but his work on Tootsie hasn't been as well-regarded.

Best Book of a Musical:

1. Tootsie-Robert Horn
2. The Prom-Bob Martin & Chad Beguelin
3. Hadestown-Anaïs Mitchell
4. Ain’t Too Proud-Dominique Morisseau
5. Beetlejuice-Scott Brown & Anthony King

With Tootsie, Robert Horn has gotten a lot of acclaim for doing a complete update of the story from the original movie to the stage musical. Rather than having the main character trying to get cast in a soap opera, he instead tries to get cast in Broadway musical. Not to mention that Horn also makes the story more accessible for the era we're living in now with the #MeToo and Time's Up movements. He's been a journeyman writer of the stage and screen for many years, and he is now finally getting his big moment in the spotlight. Hopefully, this win can encourage more screen-to-stage musical adaptations moving forward to not adapt their source materials verbatim. Though the one thing that could probably help The Prom pull an upset here is that it’s a completely original musical not based on any pre-existing material. However, if Hadestown goes on a sweep throughout the night, I could see Anaïs Mitchell winning Book as a part of that show's potential haul.

Best Choreography:

1. Sergio Trujillo-Ain’t Too Proud
2. Warren Carlyle-Kiss Me, Kate
3. David Neumann-Hadestown
4. Denis Jones-Tootsie
5. Camille A. Brown-Choir Boy

Warren Carlyle may have been building momentum with wins at the Outer Critics Circle and Drama Desk Awards for his work on Kiss Me, Kate, but I'm predicting Sergio Trujillo to win here for Ain't Too Proud​. With the 12 nominations the hit jukebox/biomusical received, I think this category is the best place to award it. After Mean Girls went home empty-handed last year, I just can't see Tony voters doing the same thing to another 12-time nominated show for a second consecutive year. Plus, Sergio is one of the most prolific choreographers working on Broadway today, and given how dance heavy of a show Ain't Too Proud appears to be, those factors should push him over the edge. Though if David Neumann somehow pulls an upset here, that could be a sign of how strong of a contender Hadestown​ is.

Best Orchestrations:

1. Michael Chorney & Todd Sickafoose-Hadestown
2. Daniel Kluger-Oklahoma!
3. Larry Hochman-Kiss Me, Kate
4. Harold Wheeler-Ain’t Too Proud
5. Simon Hale-Tootsie

After having previously underestimated the eventual Best Musical winner in this category the last two years, I'm going with the frontrunner this year. Michael Chorney & Todd Sickafoose are both responsible for bringing Anaïs Mitchell's folk jazzy blues score for Hadestown to life with an onstage orchestra. Not to mention that since this award was introduced in 1997, the winner has gone hand-in-hand with the winner for Best Original Score about 14 times out of 20. Though Daniel Kluger has literally reconceived the orchestrations in Oklahoma! to a small seven-piece band, even creating a more country, bluegrass sound for the beloved Rodgers & Hammerstein score. He could win instead, and it would not surprise me one bit.

Be sure to watch the Tonys tomorrow night at 8/7c on CBS. Here is a quick rundown of my predictions for the design categories...

​Best Sound Design of a Musical:

1. Nevin Steinberg & Jessica Paz-Hadestown
2. Steve Canyon Kennedy-Ain’t Too Proud
3. Drew Levy-Oklahoma!
4. Peter Hylenski-Beetlejuice
5. Peter Hylenski-King Kong

Best Lighting Design of a Musical:

1. Bradley King-Hadestown
2. Howell Binkley-Ain’t Too Proud
3. Kenneth Posner & Peter Nigrini-Beetlejuice
4. Kevin Adams-The Cher Show
5. Peter Mumford-King Kong

Best Scenic Design of a Musical:

1. David Korins-Beetlejuice
2. Rachel Hauck-Hadestown
3. Laura Jellinek-Oklahoma!
4. Robert Brill & Peter Nigrini-Ain’t Too Proud
5. Peter England-King Kong

Best Costume Design of a Musical:

1. Bob Mackie-The Cher Show
2. William Ivey Long-Tootsie
3. William Ivey Long-Beetlejuice
4. Michael Krass-Hadestown
5. Paul Tazewell-Ain’t Too Proud