With nominations for this year’s Tony Awards being announced soon, I thought now would be a good time to share what my predictions are. On this page, I’ll be discussing my predictions for the musical categories. This past Broadway season has been a pretty slow year as there were only 7 new musicals and 3 revivals (10 productions overall). So given those circumstances, I’ll be discussing my predictions in some categories by listing all the candidates that I think will most likely be nominated, as well as possibilities for the last one-two slots. In other categories, I’ll just be listing all the candidates we actually have.
Best Musical:
Out of all the new musicals that came to Broadway this season, three of them (which are Escape to Margaritaville, Prince of Broadway, and Summer: The Donna Summer Musical) don’t really seem to have a shot at some Tony nominations. As for the other four, I am predicting each of them to make the cut for Best Musical.
The Band’s Visit-Within the last three years, a show that transferred from off-Broadway to Broadway has managed to go all the way to the Tonys. In 2015, it was Fun Home. In 2016, it was this little show called Hamilton. Last year, it was Dear Evan Hansen. This year, it looks like that trend will continue with The Band’s Visit. While it is obviously no Hamilton in terms of success, nor has it captured the cultural zeitgeist like Dear Evan Hansen, this musical adaptation of the 2007 Israeli film has been doing better at the box office than what most people would expect given that it’s based on some obscure foreign film with no marquee names (with the exception of Tony Shalhoub) attached. Not to mention that it is the most acclaimed new musical of the season.
Frozen-Despite the mixed critical reception it received, Disney’s latest screen-to-stage adaptation may still get in for Best Musical thanks to some weak competition for the fourth slot. After all, Disney does have a pretty good track record of garnering Best Musical nominations with Beauty & the Beast, The Lion King (which won), Mary Poppins, Newsies, and Aladdin. To date, Aida, Tarzan, and The Little Mermaid are their only productions that failed to make the cut.
Mean Girls-While this musical adaptation of the popular 2004 teen comedy does have its detractors, Mean Girls still overall received mostly favorable reviews from critics. Also given the all the buzz surrounding the show, I imagine it will be a solid contender for a Best Musical nomination.
SpongeBob SquarePants-When this project was announced, I pretty much had the exact same thoughts as everyone else, “the most ridiculous idea I’ve ever heard!” Then it was revealed that a bunch of recording artists were each going to contribute one original song for the score, which I thought “well, this is gonna be a mess”. Yet, it turns out to be another one of those ideas you think would never work at all, but does as the critical response to SpongeBob SquarePants has been pretty favorable (with a few exceptions). Director Tina Landau has apparently done something similar to what Julie Taymor did with The Lion King by not creating literal interpretations of a cartoon, but being more creative by reinterpreting them just for the stage. Not to mention that orchestrator Tom Kitt was apparently able to take all the songs, and create cohesive sound for all of them.
Best Revival of a Musical:
This should be the easiest category for nominators to fill out this year given that there’s a guaranteed three slots, and there were only three musical revivals this past season. So I guess to make this conversation a little more interesting, I’ll be going into details about each of them individually.
Carousel-There was a lot of anticipation for the Broadway return of Rodgers & Hammerstein’s 1945 masterpiece. Yet by the time it opened, the response has been very polarizing. While some people adored the production, there’s also been a fair share of people that were pretty disappointed. That latter group especially thought that the staging and design was pretty lackluster with some unnecessary cuts to the original material. While Carousel did recently receive 12 Drama Desk nominations, I'm expecting it to get much less from the Tony nominating committee.
My Fair Lady-When it was announced that Lincoln Center Theater was going to present a new Broadway production of Alan Jay Lerner & Frederick Loewe’s 1956 classic directed by Bartlett Sher, it sounded like a match made in heaven. After all, Sher has previously helmed critically-acclaimed productions of South Pacific and The King & I both for LCT, so a lot was definitely riding on My Fair Lady, and the end results do not seem to disappoint. It's also worth noting that in the era of the #MeToo movement, Bart's vision for the production makes the show less about a man 'making' a woman, and more about a woman finding her true strength and confidence.
Once on This Island-There has been a lot of affection for the first Broadway revival of this 1990 cult musical by Lynn Ahrens & Stephen Flaherty. Under the direction of Michael Arden, he was able to rethink the piece into an immersive production in the round at Circle in the Square Theatre.
Best Lead Actor in a Musical:
Harry Hadden-Paton-My Fair Lady
Tony Shalhoub-The Band’s Visit
Ethan Slater-SpongeBob SquarePants
Who’s Getting the Last Slot?: According to the rules, there shall be no more than four nominees in each category, provided that if there are at least seven eligible candidates for nomination in any of the eight established ‘Best Performance’ categories, then there shall be five nominees in that category. Though this year, there are only five eligible candidates for Lead Actor in a Musical, so therefore, there will only be four nominees. On paper, Joshua Henry may have the edge for taking on the iconic role of Billy Bigelow in Carousel, though there may be a few things going against him. Not only have critics been divided on the production itself, but people have also been divided on his performance. Some found him to be a highlight, others found his performance to be pretty inconsistent. Not to mention that no actor who has previously played Billy Bigelow on Broadway has ever even been Tony nominated. The original production debuted in 1945, just two years before the Tony Awards were established, so John Raitt obviously didn’t make the cut back then. Despite all the acclaim the last revival received in 1994, Michael Hayden still failed to make the cut for Lead Actor in a Musical. So could Paul Alexander Nolan be a darkhorse for Escape to Margaritaville? While the Jimmy Buffett jukebox musical isn’t much of a critical darling, Nolan has been a frequent presence on the boards within the last few years and has become a mainstay in the community. Though with that being said, all the nominees for Lead Actor in a Musical for the last three years have consisted of performances from productions that were nominated for Best Musical and/or Best Revival, so it looks like this year will likely be no different.
Best Lead Actress in a Musical:
Lauren Ambrose-My Fair Lady
Hailey Kilgore-Once on This Island
Katrina Lenk-The Band’s Visit
Who’s Getting the Last Two Slots?: There is potential for both Caissie Levy & Patti Murin to make the cut for their performances in Frozen. But if only one of them gets nominated, I’d say Murin has an edge since her character, Anna, is more of the lead while Elsa in the stage adaptation could’ve competed in Featured Actress given her reported stage time, but the Administration Committee ruled her as Lead. Though Levy does get the big number which closes Act I (‘Let It Go’). Taylor Louderman was also recently ruled as Lead for Mean Girls, so it seems that she may have a shot as well. As for other possibilities, they can probably only hope for some namecheck nominations. LaChanze may be a Broadway veteran playing Donna Summer in the biographical musical titled Summer, but given that show’s underwhelming critical response, I doubt it’ll be much of a contender. Jessie Mueller may have been nominated for almost every production she’s opened on Broadway, but I’ve heard that she feels wasted in Carousel despite being the female lead (as someone who’s seen PBS’ broadcast of the New York Philharmonic’s 2013 staging, she clearly should’ve stayed in the supporting role of Carrie Pipperidge).
Best Featured Actor in a Musical:
Norbert Leo Butz-My Fair Lady
Alex Newell-Once on This Island
Ari’el Stachel-The Band’s Visit
Who’s Getting the Last Two Slots?: In a lot of the reviews for Frozen, I noticed several critics giving shoutouts to Broadway newcomer Jelani Alladin as Kristoff. If the nominating committee really loves The Band’s Visit, could John Cariani sneak into this category? He’s featured in most of the promotional items and interviews and he has a good enough reputation in the industry. Out of all the featured actors in Mean Girls, Grey Henson has been viewed as a standout for his performance as a gay character. Gavin Lee does have a big showstopping number in SpongeBob SquarePants. He is a previous nominee for his performance as Bert in Mary Poppins, which was another role where he got to showcase his skills as a triple threat. Alexander Gemignani and Tony Yazbeck have both been receiving nominations from the Outer Critics Circle and Drama Desk Awards for their respective performances in Carousel and Prince of Broadway. While neither of those awards groups do not overlap with the Tonys at all, one has to wonder if Gemignani and/or Yazbeck could be dark horses for nominations here.
Best Featured Actress in a Musical:
Lindsay Mendez-Carousel
Ashley Park-Mean Girls
Kate Rockwell-Mean Girls
Who’s Getting the Last Three Slots?: This has been the one musical acting category I’ve struggled with most this year. You could almost draw some names out of a hat to decide who to predict. After Taylor Louderman was ruled eligible as Lead for Mean Girls, that did kind of paved the way for Ashley Park & Kate Rockwell to be recognized in this category. Can anyone else from that show sneak in here? Broadway veteran Kerry Butler does get to show off her skills in three different roles. There also seems to be some affection for Barrett Wilbert Weed’s performance. Not to mention that there are a couple of performances from Once on This Island that may have a shot. Broadway legend Lea Salonga does have a standout moment with her number, ‘The Human Heart’. Though I’ve seen some people putting in a good word for Kenita R. Miller, whose character they feel is the heart of the show. As for other possibilities, Diana Rigg has received some glowing notices for her return to Broadway as Mrs. Higgins in My Fair Lady. While she may only have a speaking part, the role did earn Gladys Cooper an Oscar nomination for the 1964 film adaptation.
You can stream the nominations announcement at www.tonyawards.com this Tuesday morning at 8:30.
Best Musical:
Out of all the new musicals that came to Broadway this season, three of them (which are Escape to Margaritaville, Prince of Broadway, and Summer: The Donna Summer Musical) don’t really seem to have a shot at some Tony nominations. As for the other four, I am predicting each of them to make the cut for Best Musical.
The Band’s Visit-Within the last three years, a show that transferred from off-Broadway to Broadway has managed to go all the way to the Tonys. In 2015, it was Fun Home. In 2016, it was this little show called Hamilton. Last year, it was Dear Evan Hansen. This year, it looks like that trend will continue with The Band’s Visit. While it is obviously no Hamilton in terms of success, nor has it captured the cultural zeitgeist like Dear Evan Hansen, this musical adaptation of the 2007 Israeli film has been doing better at the box office than what most people would expect given that it’s based on some obscure foreign film with no marquee names (with the exception of Tony Shalhoub) attached. Not to mention that it is the most acclaimed new musical of the season.
Frozen-Despite the mixed critical reception it received, Disney’s latest screen-to-stage adaptation may still get in for Best Musical thanks to some weak competition for the fourth slot. After all, Disney does have a pretty good track record of garnering Best Musical nominations with Beauty & the Beast, The Lion King (which won), Mary Poppins, Newsies, and Aladdin. To date, Aida, Tarzan, and The Little Mermaid are their only productions that failed to make the cut.
Mean Girls-While this musical adaptation of the popular 2004 teen comedy does have its detractors, Mean Girls still overall received mostly favorable reviews from critics. Also given the all the buzz surrounding the show, I imagine it will be a solid contender for a Best Musical nomination.
SpongeBob SquarePants-When this project was announced, I pretty much had the exact same thoughts as everyone else, “the most ridiculous idea I’ve ever heard!” Then it was revealed that a bunch of recording artists were each going to contribute one original song for the score, which I thought “well, this is gonna be a mess”. Yet, it turns out to be another one of those ideas you think would never work at all, but does as the critical response to SpongeBob SquarePants has been pretty favorable (with a few exceptions). Director Tina Landau has apparently done something similar to what Julie Taymor did with The Lion King by not creating literal interpretations of a cartoon, but being more creative by reinterpreting them just for the stage. Not to mention that orchestrator Tom Kitt was apparently able to take all the songs, and create cohesive sound for all of them.
Best Revival of a Musical:
This should be the easiest category for nominators to fill out this year given that there’s a guaranteed three slots, and there were only three musical revivals this past season. So I guess to make this conversation a little more interesting, I’ll be going into details about each of them individually.
Carousel-There was a lot of anticipation for the Broadway return of Rodgers & Hammerstein’s 1945 masterpiece. Yet by the time it opened, the response has been very polarizing. While some people adored the production, there’s also been a fair share of people that were pretty disappointed. That latter group especially thought that the staging and design was pretty lackluster with some unnecessary cuts to the original material. While Carousel did recently receive 12 Drama Desk nominations, I'm expecting it to get much less from the Tony nominating committee.
My Fair Lady-When it was announced that Lincoln Center Theater was going to present a new Broadway production of Alan Jay Lerner & Frederick Loewe’s 1956 classic directed by Bartlett Sher, it sounded like a match made in heaven. After all, Sher has previously helmed critically-acclaimed productions of South Pacific and The King & I both for LCT, so a lot was definitely riding on My Fair Lady, and the end results do not seem to disappoint. It's also worth noting that in the era of the #MeToo movement, Bart's vision for the production makes the show less about a man 'making' a woman, and more about a woman finding her true strength and confidence.
Once on This Island-There has been a lot of affection for the first Broadway revival of this 1990 cult musical by Lynn Ahrens & Stephen Flaherty. Under the direction of Michael Arden, he was able to rethink the piece into an immersive production in the round at Circle in the Square Theatre.
Best Lead Actor in a Musical:
Harry Hadden-Paton-My Fair Lady
Tony Shalhoub-The Band’s Visit
Ethan Slater-SpongeBob SquarePants
Who’s Getting the Last Slot?: According to the rules, there shall be no more than four nominees in each category, provided that if there are at least seven eligible candidates for nomination in any of the eight established ‘Best Performance’ categories, then there shall be five nominees in that category. Though this year, there are only five eligible candidates for Lead Actor in a Musical, so therefore, there will only be four nominees. On paper, Joshua Henry may have the edge for taking on the iconic role of Billy Bigelow in Carousel, though there may be a few things going against him. Not only have critics been divided on the production itself, but people have also been divided on his performance. Some found him to be a highlight, others found his performance to be pretty inconsistent. Not to mention that no actor who has previously played Billy Bigelow on Broadway has ever even been Tony nominated. The original production debuted in 1945, just two years before the Tony Awards were established, so John Raitt obviously didn’t make the cut back then. Despite all the acclaim the last revival received in 1994, Michael Hayden still failed to make the cut for Lead Actor in a Musical. So could Paul Alexander Nolan be a darkhorse for Escape to Margaritaville? While the Jimmy Buffett jukebox musical isn’t much of a critical darling, Nolan has been a frequent presence on the boards within the last few years and has become a mainstay in the community. Though with that being said, all the nominees for Lead Actor in a Musical for the last three years have consisted of performances from productions that were nominated for Best Musical and/or Best Revival, so it looks like this year will likely be no different.
Best Lead Actress in a Musical:
Lauren Ambrose-My Fair Lady
Hailey Kilgore-Once on This Island
Katrina Lenk-The Band’s Visit
Who’s Getting the Last Two Slots?: There is potential for both Caissie Levy & Patti Murin to make the cut for their performances in Frozen. But if only one of them gets nominated, I’d say Murin has an edge since her character, Anna, is more of the lead while Elsa in the stage adaptation could’ve competed in Featured Actress given her reported stage time, but the Administration Committee ruled her as Lead. Though Levy does get the big number which closes Act I (‘Let It Go’). Taylor Louderman was also recently ruled as Lead for Mean Girls, so it seems that she may have a shot as well. As for other possibilities, they can probably only hope for some namecheck nominations. LaChanze may be a Broadway veteran playing Donna Summer in the biographical musical titled Summer, but given that show’s underwhelming critical response, I doubt it’ll be much of a contender. Jessie Mueller may have been nominated for almost every production she’s opened on Broadway, but I’ve heard that she feels wasted in Carousel despite being the female lead (as someone who’s seen PBS’ broadcast of the New York Philharmonic’s 2013 staging, she clearly should’ve stayed in the supporting role of Carrie Pipperidge).
Best Featured Actor in a Musical:
Norbert Leo Butz-My Fair Lady
Alex Newell-Once on This Island
Ari’el Stachel-The Band’s Visit
Who’s Getting the Last Two Slots?: In a lot of the reviews for Frozen, I noticed several critics giving shoutouts to Broadway newcomer Jelani Alladin as Kristoff. If the nominating committee really loves The Band’s Visit, could John Cariani sneak into this category? He’s featured in most of the promotional items and interviews and he has a good enough reputation in the industry. Out of all the featured actors in Mean Girls, Grey Henson has been viewed as a standout for his performance as a gay character. Gavin Lee does have a big showstopping number in SpongeBob SquarePants. He is a previous nominee for his performance as Bert in Mary Poppins, which was another role where he got to showcase his skills as a triple threat. Alexander Gemignani and Tony Yazbeck have both been receiving nominations from the Outer Critics Circle and Drama Desk Awards for their respective performances in Carousel and Prince of Broadway. While neither of those awards groups do not overlap with the Tonys at all, one has to wonder if Gemignani and/or Yazbeck could be dark horses for nominations here.
Best Featured Actress in a Musical:
Lindsay Mendez-Carousel
Ashley Park-Mean Girls
Kate Rockwell-Mean Girls
Who’s Getting the Last Three Slots?: This has been the one musical acting category I’ve struggled with most this year. You could almost draw some names out of a hat to decide who to predict. After Taylor Louderman was ruled eligible as Lead for Mean Girls, that did kind of paved the way for Ashley Park & Kate Rockwell to be recognized in this category. Can anyone else from that show sneak in here? Broadway veteran Kerry Butler does get to show off her skills in three different roles. There also seems to be some affection for Barrett Wilbert Weed’s performance. Not to mention that there are a couple of performances from Once on This Island that may have a shot. Broadway legend Lea Salonga does have a standout moment with her number, ‘The Human Heart’. Though I’ve seen some people putting in a good word for Kenita R. Miller, whose character they feel is the heart of the show. As for other possibilities, Diana Rigg has received some glowing notices for her return to Broadway as Mrs. Higgins in My Fair Lady. While she may only have a speaking part, the role did earn Gladys Cooper an Oscar nomination for the 1964 film adaptation.
You can stream the nominations announcement at www.tonyawards.com this Tuesday morning at 8:30.