The 2018 Tony Awards are almost here, so let’s make some predictions, shall we? On this page, I’ll be discussing my predictions for the musical categories. In fact, what I've decided to do this year is provide links to a sample of as many of the nominated performances as I can find.

Best Musical:

1. The Band’s Visit
2. SpongeBob SquarePants
3. Mean Girls
4. Frozen

In a season that consisted of only seven new musicals, most of them were commodity shows, yet, the one apple in a bag of oranges (or vice versa) is looking to win big on Tony night, and that would be The Band’s Visit. I can’t really see anything beating the most acclaimed new musical of the season as its fellow competitors each has their share of detractors. Though I will say that the only one I could possibly see upsetting The Band’s Visit is SpongeBob SquarePants given all the acclaim that show has received for its innovative staging, especially after everyone (myself included) cringed when they first heard the idea of a SpongeBob​ musical. Not to mention that a win for them here would hopefully send a message to every single corporate company that wants to tackle Broadway to take more creative risks. Though SpongeBob hasn’t been doing great at the box office despite tying with Mean Girls for the most nominations. As we’ve seen in the past, Tony voters don’t like to waste any major awards on a show that's been struggling.

Best Revival of a Musical:

1. My Fair Lady
2. Once on This Island
3. Carousel

According to the New York Times Tony Awards poll (which this year surveyed about 110 out of 842 voters), this category seems to be pretty competitive. My Fair Lady narrowly leads the race with Once on This Island close behind as well as a good bit of support for Carousel (despite the detractors that production has). Given how the momentum has been shifting more towards My Fair Lady in recent weeks, I think that's going to win. It could also be helped by the #MeToo movement as director Bartlett Sher’s vision for the production makes the show less about a man ‘making’ a woman, and more about a woman finding her true strength and confidence. While Once on This Island does still seem to have a shot at winning, I think given how it's kind of been losing momentum in recent weeks, it’s hard for me to tell how well it could do on Tony night at this point. Despite the production's 8 nominations, there aren't really many opportunities to award it elsewhere. Every Tony winner for Best Revival of a Musical since 2010 has also taken at least one major award as part of their haul. Carousel may have received 11 nominations overall, but Jack O’Brien wasn’t nominated for directing, so that could be a strike against it. You have to go all the way back to 2005 when the Jerry Zaks-helmed production of La Cage aux Folles won Best Revival of a Musical without a directing nomination.

Best Lead Actor in a Musical:

1. Tony Shalhoub-The Band’s Visit
2. Ethan Slater-SpongeBob SquarePants​
3. Joshua Henry-Carousel
4. Harry Hadden-Paton-My Fair Lady

Tony Shalhoub may have a very small singing part in The Band’s Visit, but he is the veteran out of all the nominees with what is supposed to be an emotionally affecting role. Plus, the awards for Best Musical and Lead Actor have so far gone hand-in-hand about five times before within this past decade. Ethan Slater may be the breakout star of the season with his energetic performance in SpongeBob SquarePants, but I wonder if he might suffer from the fact that he's playing a cartoon character. Joshua Henry did appear to have his share of support in the Tony voter poll for Carousel, though he may be hurt by how controversial his character, Billy Bigelow, is given how he is physically abusive of his wife. Though I actually think Harry Hadden-Paton could be a darkhorse for My Fair Lady. He’s makes the iconic role of Henry Higgins his own, which of course has previously won Rex Harrison both a Tony and an Oscar.

Best Lead Actress in a Musical:

1. Katrina Lenk-The Band’s Visit
2. Lauren Ambrose-My Fair Lady
3. Hailey Kilgore-Once on This Island
4. Taylor Louderman-Mean Girls
5. Jessie Mueller-Carousel
6. LaChanze-Summer: The Donna Summer Musical

For a while, Katrina Lenk appeared to be the frontrunner in this category for her understated, yet unique performance as the charismatic cafe owner, Dina, in The Band’s Visit. According to the Tony voter poll, she's still holding onto that status. Lenk also has the narrative of being that working actress who's been in New York for a while, paid her dues, and is now finally getting her big moment in the spotlight. Yet, Lauren Ambrose came in at the last minute, surprising everyone with her performance as Eliza Doolittle in Lincoln Center’s revival of My Fair Lady, especially after many thought she seemed like a very odd choice for the role at first. If those two ladies end up canceling each other out, could Hailey Kilgore sneak in and take it for Once on This Island​? She is a newcomer to the boards and is the central lead of a show which has always been identified as an ensemble piece.

Best Featured Actor in a Musical:

1. Norbert Leo Butz-My Fair Lady​
2. Gavin Lee-SpongeBob SquarePants
3. Ari’el Stachel-The Band’s Visit
4. Grey Henson-Mean Girls
5. Alexander Gemignani-Carousel

With both Ambrose and Hadden-Paton not appearing to be frontrunners in their respective categories (according to the Tony voter poll), Norbert Leo Butz now appears to be My Fair Lady​'s best shot at an acting prize for his performance as Alfred P. Doolittle. Over the years, he has proven to be quite a triple threat on the boards. With his performances in Dirty Rotten Scoundrels, Catch Me If You Can, and now My Fair Lady, Norbert Leo Butz is pretty much the king of showstopping production numbers. Though he’s not the only scene-stealer among this slate of nominees. Gavin Lee also has a big showstopping production number in SpongeBob SquarePants, where he even manages to pull it off with four legs. Almost likewise for Grey Henson in Mean Girls, only with two legs and the role of a gay character. Though if Ari’el Stachel pulls an upset here, it would definitely be a sign of how strong The Band’s Visit is.

Best Featured Actress in a Musical:

1. Lindsay Mendez-Carousel
2. Ashley Park-Mean Girls
3. Diana Rigg-My Fair Lady
4. Renée Fleming-Carousel
5. Ariana DeBose-Summer: The Donna Summer Musical

While I do think that Lindsay Mendez is more likely to standout from Carousel than Renée Fleming, I could still maybe see Fleming getting her fair share of votes since she does get to sing ‘You’ll Never Walk Alone’, which is one of the most famous ballads ever written. Though with that being said, Renée Fleming didn’t particularly get great notices for her overall performance as Nettie Flower, which is what makes her nomination here all the more surprising. Lindsay Mendez on the other hand, has been viewed as one of the best aspects of the current revival of Carousel. Since making her Broadway debut as Jan in the 2007 revival of Grease, she has climbed the ladder with performances in Everyday Rapture, Godspell, off-Broadway’s Dogfight, and Significant Other. What would make a win for Mendez all the more remarkable is that she wasn’t even supposed to be in the production at first. Betsy Wolfe was originally cast as Carrie Pipperidge, but had to dropout, so the casting directors came to Mendez for the role, then she had to learn how to sing in the vocal range of her character. Then again, Ashley Park was the only one from Mean Girls to have made it into this category. Not to mention that her star has been on the rise not only with her previous Broadway appearances in recent revivals of The King & I and Sunday in the Park with George, but also her performance in off-Broadway's KPOP this past season.

Best Direction of a Musical:

1. David Cromer-The Band’s Visit
2. Michael Arden-Once on This Island
3. Tina Landau-SpongeBob SquarePants
4. Bartlett Sher-My Fair Lady
5. Casey Nicholaw-Mean Girls​

After having worked off-Broadway and in regional theatres for so many years, David Cromer is now finally getting his big moment in the spotlight for his staging of The Band’s Visit. Given all the enormous love there is for that show, he seems to be the safe bet to predict. Though if Michael Arden ends up winning here for his immersive staging of Once on This Island, I think this is where we could see a surge for the production in Musical Revival. Then again, last year marked the first time in over a decade that the winners in both directing categories were productions that didn’t go on to win their top categories. If history repeats itself this year, Tina Landau could win for pulling off a Julie Taymor-esque job with SpongeBob SquarePants by creating a purely theatrical world out of an animated property.

Best Original Score:

1. The Band’s Visit-Music & Lyrics By David Yazbek
2. SpongeBob SquarePants-Music & Lyrics By Various Artists
3. Angels in America-Music By Adrian Sutton
4. Frozen-Music & Lyrics By Kristen Anderson-Lopez & Robert Lopez
5. Mean Girls-Music By Jeff Richmond, Lyrics By Nell Benjamin

In each of his three previous outings on Broadway, David Yazbek hasn’t had the best of luck standing out from the crowd. The Full Monty basically suffered from opening the same season as The Producers, Dirty Rotten Scoundrels suffered from opening in a very competitive season, and Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown pretty much broke down in New York. Now, it looks like The Band’s Visit will finally get him to the podium on Tony night. I also don’t really see anyone beating him in this category. SpongeBob SquarePants may be the second-best reviewed new score of the season, but I doubt Tony voters are going rally around that as it was comprised of songs that were each written by separate recording artists. No play score has ever won here before, though I guess I could see some Tony voters marking Angels in America on their ballots as a slap in the face to the lack of new musical scores this season. The Lopez’s may have done a solid job at augmenting their Frozen score for Broadway, though out of the five augmented Disney scores that were previously nominated in this category, Newsies is the only one to have prevailed to date. As for Mean Girls, I’ve heard a lot of people expressing that the score is one of the weakest parts of that show.

Best Book of a Musical:

1. The Band’s Visit-Itamar Moses
2. Mean Girls-Tina Fey
3. SpongeBob SquarePants-Kyle Jarrow
4. Frozen-Jennifer Lee

Tina Fey may have done quite a bit of campaigning for Mean Girls, but didn’t she just basically do a straightforward adaptation of the film where the only major differences are that it’s been updated to 2018? In the past, whenever a musical adaptation of a film won this category, it’s usually been for a more inventive adaptation like The Producers, Hairspray, Billy Elliot, and Once. From what I’ve been hearing, The Band’s Visit seems to fit more into that mold than Mean Girls. Plus, many times before, the awards for Book and Score have gone hand-in-hand (especially within the last three years). Though I could see Kyle Jarrow being a darkhorse for SpongeBob SquarePants as he came on board in the middle of the creative process to write an original story featuring characters from the popular animated series.

Best Choreography:

1. Justin Peck-Carousel
2. Steven Hoggett-Harry Potter & the Cursed Child
3. Casey Nicholaw-Mean Girls
4. Christopher Gattelli-SpongeBob SquarePants
5. Christopher Gattelli-My Fair Lady

One of the most talked about aspects of the current Broadway revival of Carousel has been the new choreography by Justin Peck, who hails from the New York City Ballet. While I do think he’s going to win, I could still see him being vulnerable as I’ve read some complaints from people feeling that the choreography was a little overdone. With Harry Potter looking to win big on the play side, could Steven Hoggett sneak in a win here? While that play may not have the most obvious choreography, I’ve read a lot of praise for the movement in it. Casey Nicholaw has now received 10 Tony nominations overall, and to date, only one win for co-directing The Book of Mormon (with Trey Parker) in 2011. If voters are aware of his track record, they may feel he’s overdue for a win as choreographer. Especially since there aren't really many opportunities for Mean Girls to actually win anything despite the 12 nominations it received. Given that Christopher Gattelli has two nominations in this category, he is at risk of vote-splitting. SpongeBob SquarePants may be the more dance heavy show, but there’s still quite a bit of dance sequences in My Fair Lady (especially with how he created a true showstopper out of 'Get Me to the Church on Time' for Norbert Leo Butz).

Best Orchestrations:

1. ​Jonathan Tunick-Carousel
2. Jamshied Sharifi-The Band’s Visit​​
3. Tom Kitt-SpongeBob SquarePants
4. AnnMarie Milazzo & Michael Starobin-Once on This Island
5. John Clancy-Mean Girls​

In previous years, whatever was winning Best Musical and/or Score would usually pick up Best Orchestrations to add to its haul. Therefore, Jamshied Sharifi would have a great shot at winning here for bringing David Yazbek’s score for The Band’s Visit to life. However, this award will only be voted on by a peer group starting this year, so it should be interesting to see who will end up winning. Jonathan Tunick is an EGOT legend taking on the beloved Rodgers & Hammerstein score in Carousel. To date, the only Tony he’s ever managed to win was for Titanic back in 1997, which was also the very first year this category was established. Some may feel that Tunick is overdue for a second Tony, especially given all the nominations he has received since then. Though Tom Kitt, a previous Tony and Pulitzer Prize winner for Next to Normal, probably had the most difficult job out of all the nominees this past season. He took a bunch of songs written by various recording artists for SpongeBob SquarePants, and was able to create a cohesive sound for all of them, blending in seamlessly with one another. Not to mention that Michael Starobin collaborated with AnnMarie Milazzo to re-conceive his original orchestrations for Once on this Island to create a specific sound for the revival.

Be sure to watch the Tonys this Sunday night at 8/7c on CBS. Here is a quick rundown of my predictions for the design categories...

Best Sound Design of a Musical:

1. Walter Trarbach & Mike Dobson-SpongeBob SquarePants
2. Peter Hylenski-Once on This Island
3. Kai Harada-The Band’s Visit
4. Brian Ronan-Mean Girls
5. Scott Leher-Carousel

Best Lighting Design of a Musical:

1. Jules Fisher & Peggy Eisenhauer-Once on This Island
2. Kevin Adams-SpongeBob SquarePants
3. Tyler Micoleau-The Band’s Visit
4. Donald Holder-My Fair Lady
5. Brian MacDevitt-Carousel

Best Scenic Design of a Musical:

1. Michael Yeargan-My Fair Lady
2. Dane Laffrey-Once on This Island
3. David Zinn-SpongeBob SquarePants
4. Scott Pask-The Band’s Visit
5. Scott Pask, Finn Ross, & Aaron Young-Mean Girls

Best Costume Design of a Musical:

1. Catherine Zuber-My Fair Lady
2. David Zinn-SpongeBob SquarePants
3. Clint Ramos-Once on This Island
4. Gregg Barnes-Mean Girls
5. Ann Roth-Carousel