With nominations for this year’s Tony Awards being announced tomorrow morning at 8:30, I thought now would be a good time to share what my predictions are. On this page, I’ll be discussing my predictions for the play categories. For each category, I’ll be listing all the candidates that I think will most likely be nominated, as well as possibilities for the last one-two slots.
Best Play:
A Doll’s House, Part 2
Indecent
Oslo
Sweat
What Could Sneak In?: While I do feel good about the four nominees I’m predicting, I think there’s still potential for a fifth nominee if there ends up being a close enough race between two shows in the nominating process. First, there’s Heisenberg, which took place back in the fall, so it is at risk of being forgotten by nominators. Then again, it was still very well-received by critics. Significant Other, which did open back in March was also well-liked. Though seeing how that play immediately lost momentum as it was shown by its premature closing last week, I’m not sure how much of a chance it has at this point.
Best Revival of a Play:
Jitney
The Little Foxes
Six Degrees of Separation
What’s Getting the Fourth Slot?: Since this wasn’t necessarily a strong year for play revivals, the nominating committee may not have had much worthy options to choose from for the fourth slot. Of the possibilities, The Front Page was pretty much the event of the fall. A comedy featuring an all-star cast that was also a big hit. Though it could be ignored in this category like how It’s Only a Play (also featuring Nathan Lane) was two years ago. Present Laughter on the other hand, just opened last month, and earned much better reviews than expected. I also think with its lead actor, Kevin Kline potentially being a frontrunner, the overall production could get nominated as well.
Best Performance By a Leading Actor in a Play:
Corey Hawkins-Six Degrees of Separation
Kevin Kline-Present Laughter
Jefferson Mays-Oslo
Who’s Getting the Last Two Slots?: There’s so many possibilities for who could take the last two slots. There’s Denis Arndt, a veteran actor who last fall at the age of 77, made his Broadway debut starring opposite Mary-Louise Parker in Heisenberg. There’s also Chris Cooper, who was last seen (briefly) on Broadway in Of the Fields, Lately back in 1980. He could be riding the coattails of acting nominations for A Doll’s House, Part 2. I think had Significant Other been more successful on Broadway, Gideon Glick probably would’ve been more of a frontrunner in this category. Could he still get nominated as a consolation prize? Then there’s Simon McBurney, who back in the fall, conceived, directed, and starred in his one-man show, The Encounter. Could he be remembered for his performance?
Best Performance By a Leading Actress in a Play:
Allison Janney-Six Degrees of Separation
Laura Linney-The Little Foxes
Laurie Metcalf-A Doll’s House, Part 2
Who’s Getting the Last Two Slots?: This category also has several possibilities for who could take the last two slots. I think Jennifer Ehle is a safe bet to get in for Oslo based on the strength of that play. As for the last slot, despite a mixed critical response, Cate Blanchett did earn rave reviews for her performance in The Present which ended its run back in March. There’s also Sally Field, who’s currently starring in a divisively received production of The Glass Menagerie. While she could get some votes based on name recognition, I doubt it’ll end up being enough given the divided reception to the current revival. Then there’s Mary-Louise Parker, who not only earned rave reviews back in the fall for her performance in Heisenberg, but New York Times theatre critic Ben Brantley felt it was Parker’s best stage performance since her Tony-winning turn in Proof back in 2001. How well could she be remembered by nominating committee?
Best Performance By a Featured Actor in a Play:
Michael Aronov-Oslo
Danny DeVito-The Price
Nathan Lane-The Front Page
John Douglas Thompson-Jitney
Who’s Getting the Fifth Slot?: There’s always a long list of contenders in the featured acting categories. As for what could happen, Richard Thomas did just earn some glowing notices for his performance in The Little Foxes. Could the acting veteran earn his very first Tony nomination for his thirteenth Broadway credit? Then again, there’s also Richard Topol, who in an ensemble of seven actors, is the only one in Indecent who isn’t playing multiple roles.
Best Performance By a Featured Actress in a Play:
Johanna Day-Sweat
Jayne Houdyshell-A Doll’s House, Part 2
Cynthia Nixon-The Little Foxes
Condola Rashad-A Doll’s House, Part 2
Who’s Getting the Fifth Slot?: I think if any female cast member gets recognized in this category for Indecent, it could probably be Katrina Lenk. Not only did she earn some glowing notices, but her visibility factor from this and the off-Broadway musical, The Band’s Visit back in the fall could help. Then again, there’s also Michelle Wilson, who seems to give Johanna Day some competition in Sweat.
You can stream the nominations announcement at www.tonyawards.com tomorrow morning at 8:30.
Best Play:
A Doll’s House, Part 2
Indecent
Oslo
Sweat
What Could Sneak In?: While I do feel good about the four nominees I’m predicting, I think there’s still potential for a fifth nominee if there ends up being a close enough race between two shows in the nominating process. First, there’s Heisenberg, which took place back in the fall, so it is at risk of being forgotten by nominators. Then again, it was still very well-received by critics. Significant Other, which did open back in March was also well-liked. Though seeing how that play immediately lost momentum as it was shown by its premature closing last week, I’m not sure how much of a chance it has at this point.
Best Revival of a Play:
Jitney
The Little Foxes
Six Degrees of Separation
What’s Getting the Fourth Slot?: Since this wasn’t necessarily a strong year for play revivals, the nominating committee may not have had much worthy options to choose from for the fourth slot. Of the possibilities, The Front Page was pretty much the event of the fall. A comedy featuring an all-star cast that was also a big hit. Though it could be ignored in this category like how It’s Only a Play (also featuring Nathan Lane) was two years ago. Present Laughter on the other hand, just opened last month, and earned much better reviews than expected. I also think with its lead actor, Kevin Kline potentially being a frontrunner, the overall production could get nominated as well.
Best Performance By a Leading Actor in a Play:
Corey Hawkins-Six Degrees of Separation
Kevin Kline-Present Laughter
Jefferson Mays-Oslo
Who’s Getting the Last Two Slots?: There’s so many possibilities for who could take the last two slots. There’s Denis Arndt, a veteran actor who last fall at the age of 77, made his Broadway debut starring opposite Mary-Louise Parker in Heisenberg. There’s also Chris Cooper, who was last seen (briefly) on Broadway in Of the Fields, Lately back in 1980. He could be riding the coattails of acting nominations for A Doll’s House, Part 2. I think had Significant Other been more successful on Broadway, Gideon Glick probably would’ve been more of a frontrunner in this category. Could he still get nominated as a consolation prize? Then there’s Simon McBurney, who back in the fall, conceived, directed, and starred in his one-man show, The Encounter. Could he be remembered for his performance?
Best Performance By a Leading Actress in a Play:
Allison Janney-Six Degrees of Separation
Laura Linney-The Little Foxes
Laurie Metcalf-A Doll’s House, Part 2
Who’s Getting the Last Two Slots?: This category also has several possibilities for who could take the last two slots. I think Jennifer Ehle is a safe bet to get in for Oslo based on the strength of that play. As for the last slot, despite a mixed critical response, Cate Blanchett did earn rave reviews for her performance in The Present which ended its run back in March. There’s also Sally Field, who’s currently starring in a divisively received production of The Glass Menagerie. While she could get some votes based on name recognition, I doubt it’ll end up being enough given the divided reception to the current revival. Then there’s Mary-Louise Parker, who not only earned rave reviews back in the fall for her performance in Heisenberg, but New York Times theatre critic Ben Brantley felt it was Parker’s best stage performance since her Tony-winning turn in Proof back in 2001. How well could she be remembered by nominating committee?
Best Performance By a Featured Actor in a Play:
Michael Aronov-Oslo
Danny DeVito-The Price
Nathan Lane-The Front Page
John Douglas Thompson-Jitney
Who’s Getting the Fifth Slot?: There’s always a long list of contenders in the featured acting categories. As for what could happen, Richard Thomas did just earn some glowing notices for his performance in The Little Foxes. Could the acting veteran earn his very first Tony nomination for his thirteenth Broadway credit? Then again, there’s also Richard Topol, who in an ensemble of seven actors, is the only one in Indecent who isn’t playing multiple roles.
Best Performance By a Featured Actress in a Play:
Johanna Day-Sweat
Jayne Houdyshell-A Doll’s House, Part 2
Cynthia Nixon-The Little Foxes
Condola Rashad-A Doll’s House, Part 2
Who’s Getting the Fifth Slot?: I think if any female cast member gets recognized in this category for Indecent, it could probably be Katrina Lenk. Not only did she earn some glowing notices, but her visibility factor from this and the off-Broadway musical, The Band’s Visit back in the fall could help. Then again, there’s also Michelle Wilson, who seems to give Johanna Day some competition in Sweat.
You can stream the nominations announcement at www.tonyawards.com tomorrow morning at 8:30.