With nominations for this year’s Tony Awards being announced tomorrow morning at 8:30, I thought now would be a good time to share what my predictions are. On this page, I’ll be discussing my predictions for the musical categories. For each category, I’ll be listing all the candidates that I think will most likely be nominated, as well as possibilities for the last one-two slots.
Best Musical:
Come From Away
Dear Evan Hansen
Natasha, Pierre, & The Great Comet of 1812
What’s Getting the Fourth Slot?: I think the stage musical adaptation of Groundhog Day is getting the fourth slot, but Bandstand just opened with very little buzz, yet got a much better response than what a lot of people expected. Could the latter be able to sneak in? Bandstand is a completely original musical just like Bright Star was last year, and that was a surprise Best Musical nominee. Or maybe we could see another close race between two shows in the nominating process, which would lead to five nominees in this category.
Best Revival of a Musical:
Falsettos
Hello, Dolly!
What’s Getting the Third Slot?: Since there are five eligible productions for the category this year, the nominating committee will be given three slots to fill. A fourth slot is possible, but only if there’s a close race between two shows in the nominating process, which happened last year. So if there’s only three nominees, what’s taking the last slot? Miss Saigon may have gotten a mixed critical response when it opened back in March, but it is an audience favorite that just so happens to be culturally relevant right now. Sunset Boulevard did receive a better reception. Though since its star Glenn Close can’t be able to compete for Lead Actress in a Musical since she already won the Tony for her role as Norma Desmond in the original production back in 1995, as well as the fact that the current revival is kind of more along the lines of a semi-staged concert production, I’m not sure how it could do in nominations overall.
Best Performance By a Leading Actor in a Musical:
Josh Groban-Natasha, Pierre, & The Great Comet of 1812
Andy Karl-Groundhog Day
David Hyde Pierce-Hello, Dolly!
Ben Platt-Dear Evan Hansen
Who’s Getting the Fifth Slot?: Christian Borle may have a shot at two nominations this year for his performances in Falsettos and Charlie & the Chocolate Factory. Given the recent underwhelming critical response to the latter, he may have a better shot for Falsettos, but since that production is long gone, he may get lost in the shuffle. Jon Jon Briones has been giving a scene-stealing performance as The Engineer in Miss Saigon, a role that previously won Jonathan Pryce a Tony for the original production back in 1991 despite all the controversy surrounding him being a white British actor playing a Eurasian. Wouldn’t it be something if the actual Asian Engineer doesn’t even get nominated while the white Engineer ended up winning?
Best Performance By a Leading Actress in a Musical:
Christine Ebersole-War Paint
Patti LuPone-War Paint
Bette Midler-Hello, Dolly!
Who’s Getting the Last Two Slots?: I think Denee Benton is a safe bet to get in for Natasha, Pierre, & The Great Comet of 1812 based on the strength of that show. I guess a reason why she could be vulnerable is because The Great Comet is so much of an ensemble piece, that she doesn’t really get a chance to own the show. As for the last slot, who could take it? Despite the mixed-to-negative critical response to Anastasia, Christy Altomare did receive glowing notices for her performance in the starring role. Then again, you also have Eva Noblezada starring as Kim (a role that previously won Lea Salonga the Tony) in Miss Saigon. She also has such a narrative to how she got the role. Given the better-than-expected response to Bandstand, Laura Osnes could break into this category.
Best Performance By a Featured Actor in a Musical:
Gavin Creel-Hello, Dolly!
Lucas Steele-Natasha, Pierre, & the Great Comet of 1812
Brandon Uranowitz-Falsettos
Who’s Getting the Last Two Slots?: I think Nick Cordero is a safe bet to get in for A Bronx Tale. I’m not expecting that musical to get a lot of nominations, but I think Cordero is their best shot at gaining some recognition. As for who’s getting the last slot, you might as well throw a dart on the board for that. While the stage adaptation of Holiday Inn received a mixed critical response back in the fall and ended its limited run in January, Corbin Bleu received some very glowing notices for his performance in the Fred Astaire role from the original film. Andrew Rannells did have a meaty role in Falsettos, but I’m not sure how much of the cast will be remembered in this category. Then again, there’s also two featured players from Dear Evan Hansen who may have a shot. Veteran actor Michael Park, who has a prominent role in the show, and Will Roland who serves as the comic relief in it.
Best Performance By a Featured Actress in a Musical:
Kate Baldwin-Hello, Dolly!
Stephanie J. Block-Falsettos
Jenn Colella-Come From Away
Rachel Bay Jones-Dear Evan Hansen
Who’s Getting the Fifth Slot?: This is probably a coin toss between Brittain Ashford and Amber Gray, both for Natasha, Pierre, & the Great Comet of 1812. At least one of them will likely be recognized based on the strength of that show. Though if there’s a close race between the two, either votes will split or there’ll be a tie for fifth place which would allow the number of nominees to expand. As for alternatives, there’s Caroline O’Conner and Mary Beth Peil in Anastasia as well as Laura Dreyfuss and Jennifer Laura Thompson in Dear Evan Hansen. Again, those pairs could be at risk of vote splitting as well.
You can stream the nominations announcement at www.tonyawards.com tomorrow morning at 8:30.
Best Musical:
Come From Away
Dear Evan Hansen
Natasha, Pierre, & The Great Comet of 1812
What’s Getting the Fourth Slot?: I think the stage musical adaptation of Groundhog Day is getting the fourth slot, but Bandstand just opened with very little buzz, yet got a much better response than what a lot of people expected. Could the latter be able to sneak in? Bandstand is a completely original musical just like Bright Star was last year, and that was a surprise Best Musical nominee. Or maybe we could see another close race between two shows in the nominating process, which would lead to five nominees in this category.
Best Revival of a Musical:
Falsettos
Hello, Dolly!
What’s Getting the Third Slot?: Since there are five eligible productions for the category this year, the nominating committee will be given three slots to fill. A fourth slot is possible, but only if there’s a close race between two shows in the nominating process, which happened last year. So if there’s only three nominees, what’s taking the last slot? Miss Saigon may have gotten a mixed critical response when it opened back in March, but it is an audience favorite that just so happens to be culturally relevant right now. Sunset Boulevard did receive a better reception. Though since its star Glenn Close can’t be able to compete for Lead Actress in a Musical since she already won the Tony for her role as Norma Desmond in the original production back in 1995, as well as the fact that the current revival is kind of more along the lines of a semi-staged concert production, I’m not sure how it could do in nominations overall.
Best Performance By a Leading Actor in a Musical:
Josh Groban-Natasha, Pierre, & The Great Comet of 1812
Andy Karl-Groundhog Day
David Hyde Pierce-Hello, Dolly!
Ben Platt-Dear Evan Hansen
Who’s Getting the Fifth Slot?: Christian Borle may have a shot at two nominations this year for his performances in Falsettos and Charlie & the Chocolate Factory. Given the recent underwhelming critical response to the latter, he may have a better shot for Falsettos, but since that production is long gone, he may get lost in the shuffle. Jon Jon Briones has been giving a scene-stealing performance as The Engineer in Miss Saigon, a role that previously won Jonathan Pryce a Tony for the original production back in 1991 despite all the controversy surrounding him being a white British actor playing a Eurasian. Wouldn’t it be something if the actual Asian Engineer doesn’t even get nominated while the white Engineer ended up winning?
Best Performance By a Leading Actress in a Musical:
Christine Ebersole-War Paint
Patti LuPone-War Paint
Bette Midler-Hello, Dolly!
Who’s Getting the Last Two Slots?: I think Denee Benton is a safe bet to get in for Natasha, Pierre, & The Great Comet of 1812 based on the strength of that show. I guess a reason why she could be vulnerable is because The Great Comet is so much of an ensemble piece, that she doesn’t really get a chance to own the show. As for the last slot, who could take it? Despite the mixed-to-negative critical response to Anastasia, Christy Altomare did receive glowing notices for her performance in the starring role. Then again, you also have Eva Noblezada starring as Kim (a role that previously won Lea Salonga the Tony) in Miss Saigon. She also has such a narrative to how she got the role. Given the better-than-expected response to Bandstand, Laura Osnes could break into this category.
Best Performance By a Featured Actor in a Musical:
Gavin Creel-Hello, Dolly!
Lucas Steele-Natasha, Pierre, & the Great Comet of 1812
Brandon Uranowitz-Falsettos
Who’s Getting the Last Two Slots?: I think Nick Cordero is a safe bet to get in for A Bronx Tale. I’m not expecting that musical to get a lot of nominations, but I think Cordero is their best shot at gaining some recognition. As for who’s getting the last slot, you might as well throw a dart on the board for that. While the stage adaptation of Holiday Inn received a mixed critical response back in the fall and ended its limited run in January, Corbin Bleu received some very glowing notices for his performance in the Fred Astaire role from the original film. Andrew Rannells did have a meaty role in Falsettos, but I’m not sure how much of the cast will be remembered in this category. Then again, there’s also two featured players from Dear Evan Hansen who may have a shot. Veteran actor Michael Park, who has a prominent role in the show, and Will Roland who serves as the comic relief in it.
Best Performance By a Featured Actress in a Musical:
Kate Baldwin-Hello, Dolly!
Stephanie J. Block-Falsettos
Jenn Colella-Come From Away
Rachel Bay Jones-Dear Evan Hansen
Who’s Getting the Fifth Slot?: This is probably a coin toss between Brittain Ashford and Amber Gray, both for Natasha, Pierre, & the Great Comet of 1812. At least one of them will likely be recognized based on the strength of that show. Though if there’s a close race between the two, either votes will split or there’ll be a tie for fifth place which would allow the number of nominees to expand. As for alternatives, there’s Caroline O’Conner and Mary Beth Peil in Anastasia as well as Laura Dreyfuss and Jennifer Laura Thompson in Dear Evan Hansen. Again, those pairs could be at risk of vote splitting as well.
You can stream the nominations announcement at www.tonyawards.com tomorrow morning at 8:30.