The 2017 Tony Awards are almost here, so let’s make some predictions, shall we? We’ll be starting with my predictions on the musical categories.

Best Musical:

1. Dear Evan Hansen
2. Come From Away
3. Natasha, Pierre, & the Great Comet of 1812
4. Groundhog Day​

A great (and stressful) thing about this year’s race for Best Musical is that there’s no obvious winner unlike last year when the real question we were all asking was “How many Tonys is Hamilton going to win?”. The top three I have listed all seem to have great chances of winning their fair share of the gold, along with some reasonable path towards victory in this category. Given how much Dear Evan Hansen has been able to capture the cultural zeitgeist, I do think it will win. Though Come From Away has been building a ton of support as well and The Great Comet could potentially win the most awards of the night. One thing I would like to point out is that Come From Away is not up for Best Orchestrations. Since that category was established in 1997, only two shows have won Best Musical without that corresponding nomination (which were Contact and Avenue Q).

Best Revival of a Musical:​

1. Hello, Dolly!
2. Falsettos
3. Miss Saigon

Probably the biggest juggernaut we have this season is the current Broadway revival of Hello, Dolly!. It’s the biggest event of the season that everyone on the face of the Earth is trying to get tickets to. Though if Dolly! somehow loses (or in this case, gets La La Landed), I don’t really know what could upset it. The other two nominees kind of seem interchangeable to me. Falsettos was well-loved back in the fall, but since it already ended its limited run back in January, a screening of the upcoming PBS broadcast was recently held for industry professionals (which may have included some Tony voters who hadn’t completed their ballots yet) just a few days before voting closed. Miss Saigon may not have as much industry support, but it is still running, so every single Tony voter has obviously seen it.

Best Lead Actor in a Musical:

1. Ben Platt-Dear Evan Hansen
2. Andy Karl-Groundhog Day
3. David Hyde Pierce-Hello, Dolly!
4. Josh Groban-Natasha, Pierre, & the Great Comet of 1812
5. ​Christian Borle-Falsettos

When it was announced last year that Dear Evan Hansen was moving from off-Broadway to Broadway, Ben Platt seemed like a strong frontrunner going into this season. For the most part, he’s been able to hold onto that status with all the rave reviews he’s received, a spot on Time Magazine’s list of 100 Most Influential People of 2017, and the record as the youngest person to have ever won the Drama League Award for Distinguished Performance. Then again, you also have Andy Karl, a Broadway veteran who’s not only taking on an iconic role Bill Murray played on screen, but also ended up tearing his ACL very late into previews, yet finished the performance. He was even able to return to the show for opening night three days later. If those two end up canceling each other out, could David Hyde Pierce sneak in and take it? He already pulled an upset in this category 10 years ago when he won for Curtains beating out Raul Esparza for the most recent revival of Company.

Best Lead Actress in a Musical:​

1. Bette Midler-Hello, Dolly!
2. Eva Noblezada-Miss Saigon
3. Denee Benton-Natasha, Pierre, & the Great Comet of 1812
4. Patti LuPone-War Paint
5. ​Christine Ebersole-War Paint

Five times out of the last six years, the awards for Best Revival and Lead Actress in a Musical have pretty much gone hand-in-hand, and it looks like this year will (most likely) be no different. Bette Midler made her Broadway debut as a replacement in the original production of Fiddler on the Roof, and has up until now only made returns to the Great White Way doing one-woman shows. Not only is she now finally starring in a Broadway musical, but also taking on a role made famous by Carol Channing for many years, yet makes it her own. As for who could upset her, Christine Ebersole and Patti LuPone have both earned high points for their performances in War Paint, but the musical itself isn’t even nominated for the top category. You have to go all the way back to the year 2000 when Heather Headley won in this category for Aida, despite the fact that it wasn’t even up for Best Musical. Plus, Ebersole and LuPone both already have two Tonys themselves, so they’ll probably have another shot at winning a third someday. The only other nominee I could see upsetting Bette Midler is Eva Noblezada. Not only does she have such a marathon role in Miss Saigon, but she was discovered by a casting director in the audience while Noblezada was competing at the Jimmy Awards when she was only 17 years old. She then starred as Kim in the West End revival for two years, and now at the age of 21 is doing it on Broadway.

Best Featured Actor in a Musical:

1. Gavin Creel-Hello, Dolly!
2. Lucas Steele-Natasha, Pierre, & the Great Comet of 1812
3. Andrew Rannells-Falsettos
4. Mike Faist-Dear Evan Hansen
5. Brandon Uranowitz-Falsettos

Lucas Steele probably is The Great Comet’s best shot at winning an acting award. In recent interviews, he’s talked a lot about his upbringing, coming to New York, paying his dues, and getting involved with The Great Comet from an early workshop. Then again, there’s also Broadway veteran Gavin Creel, who is appearing in the iconic supporting role of Cornelius Hackl in Hello, Dolly!. There is also kind of an I.O.U. to that character. When the original production swept the Tonys in 1964, the one category it didn’t end up winning was Featured Actor in a Musical for the original Cornelius Hackl, Charles Nelson Reilly. He lost to Jack Cassidy for the original production of She Loves Me (which ironically was the same character Creel played in that show’s most recent revival from last season). Since Falsettos is no longer running on Broadway, Andrew Rannells has been putting himself out there. He’s been interviewed by Scott Feinberg for the Hollywood Reporter, Matt Noble for Gold Derby, and Richard Ridge for Broadway World. Though you have to go all the way back to 1999 when a closed production of a musical won an acting award (which was Martin Short for Little Me). While the upcoming PBS broadcast of Falsettos was just screened for industry professionals, it’s unknown how many of them were Tony voters who didn’t complete their ballots beforehand.

Best Featured Actress in a Musical:

1. Rachel Bay Jones-Dear Evan Hansen
2. Jenn Colella-Come From Away
3. Stephanie J. Block-Falsettos
4. Kate Baldwin-Hello, Dolly!
5. Mary Beth Peil-Anastasia

We’ve got ourselves an interesting race here. Rachel Bay Jones has really been putting herself out there. She’s had interviews with Patrick Hinds for the Theater People Podcast, Paul Wontorek for Broadway.com, Julie James for Sirius XM, AOL Build, and Richard Ridge for Broadway World. She's talked a lot about how she made her Broadway debut at a young age in the ensemble of Meet Me in St. Louis, but left New York for 20 years before coming back as a replacement in the most recent revival of Hair. Since then, she’s had follow-up appearances in Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown and Pippin, but is now getting the recognition she deserves for her performance in Dear Evan Hansen. Yet, Jenn Colella appears to be in striking distance of her. She started out her Broadway career appearing in a string of flops (Urban Cowboy, High Fidelity, and Chaplin), but is now like Jones, finally getting the recognition she deserves for her performance in Come From Away. If that show ends up winning Best Musical, I could see Colella riding the coattails here. Since Falsettos is no longer running on Broadway, Stephanie J. Block has also been putting herself out there. She’s been interviewed by Paul Sheehan & Sam Eckmann for Gold Derby, AOL Build, and Jeremy Gerard for Deadline. Though she’s probably on the same shaky grounds Andrew Rannells is in his category.

Best Direction of a Musical:

1. Rachel Chavkin-Natasha, Pierre, & the Great Comet of 1812
2. Michael Greif-Dear Evan Hansen
3. Christopher Ashley-Come From Away
4. Jerry Zaks-Hello, Dolly!
5. ​Matthew Warchus-Groundhog Day

No matter what ends up winning Best Musical, I think Rachel Chavkin will win in this category just for being able to re-conceive her staging of The Great Comet for Broadway. She started it all as a small immersive production in prior outings, but was able to transform the 1,443 seat Imperial Theatre into the world of the show. As for potential upsets, there’s different possibilities. There is kind of an I.O.U. to Michael Greif. While the original Broadway production of Rent was able to win four Tonys (including Best Musical) in 1996, he actually lost Best Direction of a Musical to George C. Wolfe for Bring in ‘da Noise, Bring in ‘da Funk. If Greif wins here, it could be where we see a surge for Dear Evan Hansen. The same thing could also happen if Christopher Ashley wins for Come From Away. He puts on an intimate production with 12 performers in the ensemble, who are all playing multiple roles. Though there’s also Jerry Zaks in the running. He’s won four Tonys in the past, his track record has been very inconsistent as of late, yet not only finds himself a return to form with Hello, Dolly!, but also his first Tony nomination in 21 years.

Best Original Score:

1. Dear Evan Hansen-Music & Lyrics & Benj Pasek & Justin Paul
2. Natasha, Pierre, & the Great Comet of 1812-Music & Lyrics By Dave Malloy
3. Come From Away-Music & Lyrics By Irene Sankoff & David Hein​
4. Groundhog Day-Music & Lyrics By Tim Minchin​

Not only has the songwriting team of Pasek & Paul been having a great year with their awards success of La La Land, but many people have praised their work on Dear Evan Hansen for having such an emotional punch. Though Dave Malloy has three nominations for The Great Comet, and he’s also won a lot of acclaim for merging Russian folk and classical music with indie rock and electronic dance music. In their first Broadway musical, the husband-and-wife team of Irene Sankoff & David Hein earned lots of acclaim as well for creating a rock, folk score with Gaelic-sounding strains for Come From Away. Though as I mentioned earlier, it’s strangely not up for Best Orchestrations. Only two musicals in the past have won this award without that corresponding nomination (which were Aida and Avenue Q).

Best Book of a Musical:

1. Come From Away-Irene Sankoff & David Hein
2. Dear Evan Hansen-Steven Levenson
3. Natasha, Pierre, & the Great Comet of 1812-Dave Malloy
4. Groundhog Day-Danny Rubin

Given all the research Irene Sankoff & David Hein had to do, then condense it all into a 100-minute one act musical, this seems to be the best place to award Come From Away. Though if Dear Evan Hansen ends up being strong with Tony voters, Steven Levenson could be riding the coattails here, especially given his most recent play If I Forget, staged off-Broadway a few months ago. Dave Malloy could also earn his fair share of votes for being able to take Volume 2, Part 5 of Leo Tolstoy’s War & Peace, and turn it into Natasha, Pierre, & the Great Comet of 1812. He even managed to take many passages word-for-word from Aylmer & Louise Maude’s 1922 translation of the novel.

Best Choreography:

1. Sam Pinkleton-Natasha, Pierre, & the Great Comet of 1812
2. Peter Darling & Ellen Kane-Groundhog Day
3. Kelly Devine-Come From Away
4. Andy Blankenbuehler-Bandstand
5. Denis Jones-Holiday Inn, The New Irving Berlin Musical

Before the nominations came out, it looked as if Warren Carlyle was winning this award for his work on Hello, Dolly!, but then he was ruled ineligible by the administration committee due to the fact that he was working in the style of Gower Champion’s original choreography. So now, there’s some suspense in this category. If Rachel Chavkin wins Best Direction of a Musical for The Great Comet, Sam Pinkleton could be riding those coattails here as he, like Chavkin, had to re-conceive his work for the Broadway production. Then again, there’s also some enormous physicality in Groundhog Day (the star even tore his ACL late in previews to prove it). Whether Andy Karl wins Lead Actor in a Musical or not, this could also be a great place to award the show. Many have also praised Kelly Devine for her seamless work in Come From Away. While some have questioned that nomination in this category, the movement in the show is suppose to be very vital to its storytelling.

Best Orchestrations:

1. Dave Malloy-Natasha, Pierre, & the Great Comet of 1812
2. Larry Hochman-Hello, Dolly!
3. Alex Lacamoire-Dear Evan Hansen
4. Bill Elliott & Greg Anthony Rassen-Bandstand

This is probably Dave Malloy’s best shot at winning an award Sunday night. Nearly every performer on stage in The Great Comet plays their own instruments to augment the orchestra. Though Larry Hochman has breathed some new life into Jerry Herman’s classic score for Hello, Dolly!. Then again, Alex Lacamoire, who just won his second Tony in this category last year for Hamilton, is in contention again this year for Dear Evan Hansen. Since this award was introduced in 1997, the winner has gone hand-in-hand with the winner for Best Score about 12 times out of 20.

I'll be back tomorrow to discuss the play awards. In the meantime, here is a quick rundown of my predictions for the design categories...

Best Lighting Design of a Musical:​

1. Bradley King-Natasha, Pierre, & the Great Comet of 1812
2. Japhy Weideman-Dear Evan Hansen
3. Howell Binkley-Come From Away
4. Natasha Katz-Hello, Dolly!

Best Scenic Design of a Musical:

1. Mimi Lien-Natasha, Pierre, & the Great Comet of 1812
2. Santo Loquasto-Hello, Dolly!
3. Rob Howell-Groundhog Day
4. David Korins-War Paint

Best Costume Design of a Musical:

1. Santo Loquasto-Hello, Dolly!
2. Paloma Young-Natasha, Pierre, & the Great Comet of 1812
3. Catherine Zuber-War Paint
4. ​Linda Cho-Anastasia