The 2016 Tony Awards are almost one week away, so let’s make some predictions, shall we? We’ll be starting with my predictions on the musical categories. Yes, we all know Hamilton is likely going to sweep the awards this year, but there are still several questions that need to be answered. How many Tonys will Hamilton win? What will win Best Revival of a Musical? Will six-time nominee Danny Burstein finally win this year? Let’s discuss!
Best Musical:
1. Hamilton
2. Shuffle Along...
3. School of Rock
4. Bright Star
5. Waitress
Probably the easiest category to predict this year. Anyone who ‘might’ be predicting something else to win are just hoping for history to repeat itself when Avenue Q upsetted Wicked for Best Musical back in 2004.
Best Revival of a Musical:
1. The Color Purple
2. She Loves Me
3. Fiddler on the Roof
4. Spring Awakening
This seems to have been a great year for musical revivals! We have this category filled with productions of two 60’s musicals with scores by Jerry Bock & Sheldon Harnick (Fiddler on the Roof and She Loves Me) and two recent musicals (The Color Purple and Spring Awakening). But there can only be one winner (unless there ends up being a tie, but that’s a real longshot). I think if Spring Awakening was still running, it would have a much better shot of winning. The three nominees that are still running are directed by masters of musical revivals. The Color Purple is directed by John Doyle. His track record with musical revivals when it comes to the Tonys have so far been mixed. His production of Sweeney Todd (which won him the Tony for Best Direction of a Musical) was predicted by almost everyone on Earth to win Best Revival of a Musical back in 2006, but shockingly lost to Roundabout’s production of The Pajama Game. Luckily, Doyle’s production of Company did win the award one year later. What he was able to do with The Color Purple was taking a musical that wasn’t well-received the first time around, pared it down, and made it everything it was meant be. Fiddler on the Roof is directed by Bartlett Sher. His track record with musical revivals when it comes to the Tonys has been pretty great so far. Both of his productions of South Pacific and The King & I with Lincoln Center have won Best Revival of a Musical. What he was able to do with Fiddler on the Roof was taking a musical everyone knows so well, and bring a brand new vision to it for the 21st century. She Loves Me is directed by Scott Ellis. His track record with musical revivals when it comes to the Tonys so far hasn’t been any good. His productions of She Loves Me (1993), Company, 1776, The Mystery of Edwin Drood, and On the Twentieth Century did not win the award for Best Revival of a Musical while his production of The Boys from Syracuse wasn’t even nominated. What was able to do with She Loves Me wasn’t some re-invention like the other nominees, just treating the musical with great respect while breathing some new life into it. I think Tony voters tend to vote for which production they found the most moving.
Best Lead Actor in a Musical:
1. Danny Burstein-Fiddler on the Roof
2. Leslie Odom, Jr.-Hamilton
3. Lin-Manuel Miranda-Hamilton
4. Alex Brightman-School of Rock
5. Zachary Levi-She Loves Me
This is probably the category where I’m most interested in seeing what happens on Tony night. We have the two leads from Hamilton competing against each other like they do in the musical. Will one of them win it or will they cancel (or in this case shoot) each other out? Lin-Manuel Miranda may already end up being acknowledged enough with the writing awards, but no performer on Broadway has been working as hard as him this season. Leslie Odom, Jr. has a scene-stealing role, but he only shares the show he’s in. If Tony voters end up spreading the wealth to other shows in this category, who could win? Alex Brightman gives a star-making (and physically demanding) performance in School of Rock, but as great as that show is, it has no snob appeal. Six-time nominee Danny Burstein who plays Tevye in Fiddler on the Roof is the veteran among the nominees. He’s been working on Broadway for over twenty years, first starting off in the ensemble, then worked his way up to principal roles, and now at almost 52 years old is in his very first Broadway show as lead (especially in a role he never would’ve thought he’d be playing). Zachary Levi probably gives the most charming performance out of all the nominees in She Loves Me, but I don’t know how much of a chance he has compared to his more demanding competition.
Best Lead Actress in a Musical:
1. Cynthia Erivo-The Color Purple
2. Carmen Cusack-Bright Star
3. Laura Benanti-She Loves Me
4. Jessie Mueller-Waitress
5. Phillipa Soo-Hamilton
This year, we have this category filled out with two previous winners (Benanti and Mueller) and three newcomers (Cusack, Erivo, and Soo). Ever since The Color Purple began performances last fall, Cynthia Erivo has been the favorite to win this award for her role as Celie. Interesting enough, when the original production of The Color Purple competed at the Tony Awards in 2006, almost everyone predicted Patti LuPone was going to win Best Lead Actress in a Musical for her performance as Mrs. Lovett in John Doyle’s production of Sweeney Todd. However, LA Times reporter Patrick Pacheco was one of the few people who predicted LaChanze (the original Celie) would win. When he made his prediction on Theater Talk, he was given a lot of flack for thinking it was possible (you can see what I'm talking about at 19:14). But who won the Tony that year? LaChanze! Could history repeat itself this year? If so, who could upset Erivo? Laura Benanti has been delivering very well in She Loves Me, but does her role have the gravitas of what the other nominees have? Jessie Mueller already won this award two years ago for Beautiful, so I don’t see Tony voters wanting to give her another one so soon for Waitress (especially since the Tonys aren’t the Emmys). Plus, as great as the buzz is for this performance, I’m not sure if it’s really as strong as it was for her performance as Carole King. I think it would be one of the biggest shockers in history if Phillipa Soo ends up winning for Hamilton. Not to discredit her by any means, it’s just that her character in Hamilton really seems to be more of a featured role compared to the other nominees. The one person I could see upsetting Erivo is Carmen Cusack for Bright Star. After having performed in London’s West End for over a decade, she came back to the United States in 2006 to star in the national touring productions of Wicked and South Pacific. But it wasn’t until this season when she made her long-awaited Broadway debut in the Tony nominated Steve Martin-Edie Brickell musical. She could pull an upset and win, but probably not.
Best Featured Actor in a Musical:
1. Daveed Diggs-Hamilton
2. Christopher Fitzgerald-Waitress
3. Christopher Jackson-Hamilton
4. Brandon Victor Dixon-Shuffle Along...
5. Jonathan Groff-Hamilton
There are three performances from Hamilton nominated in this category. Will one of them win or will they split the vote? If Tony voters would like to give Shuffle Along… something, they could give this award to Brandon Victor Dixon for his performance as composer/pianist Eubie Blake. Christopher Fitzgerald already won the Outer Critics Circle Award for his comedic performance in Waitress. Could this be the one award that musical takes home on Tony night? I’m predicting one of the Hamilton guys will win this award. Which one you may ask? That would be the one performance that already won a Lucille Lortel Award and Theatre World Award last season when the show was Off-Broadway.
Best Featured Actress in a Musical:
1. Renee Elise Goldsberry-Hamilton
2. Jane Krakowski-She Loves Me
3. Danielle Brooks-The Color Purple
4. Adrienne Warren-Shuffle Along...
5. Jennifer Simard-Disaster!
After having won the Lucille Lortel and Drama Desk Award last season, Renee Elise Goldsberry seems to have been the favorite to win this award for her standout performance as Angelica Schuyler in Hamilton. Can anyone upset her? Danielle Brooks is also a standout in The Color Purple; Jennifer Simard’s nomination for Disaster! is pretty much her award; The same thing could probably be said for Adrienne Warren’s performance in Shuffle Along… The one person I could see upsetting Goldsberry is Jane Krakowski for her standout performance in She Loves Me. It’s her first Broadway appearance since winning her Tony for Roundabout’s production of Nine back in 2003, and there is also a lot of affection towards their current production of She Loves Me. She could earn her fair share of votes, but probably not.
Best Direction of a Musical:
1. Thomas Kail-Hamilton
2. John Doyle-The Color Purple
3. Scott Ellis-She Loves Me
4. George C. Wolfe-Shuffle Along...
5. Michael Arden-Spring Awakening
They're are all well-deserved nominees, but it’s really Thomas Kail’s to lose. Not only is he likely going to go along with the Hamilton juggernaut, but he’s been having such a great year! First with Hamilton, then big success with Grease Live on FOX, as well as two recent Off-Broadway offerings.
Best Original Score:
1. Hamilton-Music & Lyrics By Lin-Manuel Miranda
2. Bright Star-Music By Steve Martin & Edie Brickell, Lyrics By Edie Brickell
3. Waitress-Music & Lyrics By Sara Bareilles
4. School of Rock-Music By Andrew Lloyd Webber, Lyrics By Glenn Slater
They all have great scores, but I think there’s no stopping Lin-Manuel Miranda’s brilliant score for Hamilton!
Best Book of a Musical:
1. Hamilton-Lin-Manuel Miranda
2. Shuffle Along...-George C. Wolfe
3. School of Rock-Julian Fellowes
4. Bright Star-Steve Martin
Some people may think that the book for a musical is basically the dialogue, but it’s not, it’s the overall structure of a musical. While I could see George C. Wolfe receiving his fair share of votes for his work on Shuffle Along…, I think Lin-Manuel Miranda once again has this award in the bag for Hamilton.
Best Choreography:
1. Savion Glover-Shuffle Along...
2. Andy Blankenbuehler-Hamilton
3. Hofesh Shechter-Fiddler on the Roof
4. Sergio Trujillo-On Your Feet!
5. Randy Skinner-Dames at Sea
They are all very well-deserved nominees, but there can only be one winner. Blankenbuehler could be going along with the Hamilton juggernaut, but Savion Glover’s work on Shuffle Along… is probably very vital to the success of that show. If he wins, I could see the producers wanting to capitalize on it when he goes into the show next month.
I’ll be back soon for my predictions on the Play categories!
Best Musical:
1. Hamilton
2. Shuffle Along...
3. School of Rock
4. Bright Star
5. Waitress
Probably the easiest category to predict this year. Anyone who ‘might’ be predicting something else to win are just hoping for history to repeat itself when Avenue Q upsetted Wicked for Best Musical back in 2004.
Best Revival of a Musical:
1. The Color Purple
2. She Loves Me
3. Fiddler on the Roof
4. Spring Awakening
This seems to have been a great year for musical revivals! We have this category filled with productions of two 60’s musicals with scores by Jerry Bock & Sheldon Harnick (Fiddler on the Roof and She Loves Me) and two recent musicals (The Color Purple and Spring Awakening). But there can only be one winner (unless there ends up being a tie, but that’s a real longshot). I think if Spring Awakening was still running, it would have a much better shot of winning. The three nominees that are still running are directed by masters of musical revivals. The Color Purple is directed by John Doyle. His track record with musical revivals when it comes to the Tonys have so far been mixed. His production of Sweeney Todd (which won him the Tony for Best Direction of a Musical) was predicted by almost everyone on Earth to win Best Revival of a Musical back in 2006, but shockingly lost to Roundabout’s production of The Pajama Game. Luckily, Doyle’s production of Company did win the award one year later. What he was able to do with The Color Purple was taking a musical that wasn’t well-received the first time around, pared it down, and made it everything it was meant be. Fiddler on the Roof is directed by Bartlett Sher. His track record with musical revivals when it comes to the Tonys has been pretty great so far. Both of his productions of South Pacific and The King & I with Lincoln Center have won Best Revival of a Musical. What he was able to do with Fiddler on the Roof was taking a musical everyone knows so well, and bring a brand new vision to it for the 21st century. She Loves Me is directed by Scott Ellis. His track record with musical revivals when it comes to the Tonys so far hasn’t been any good. His productions of She Loves Me (1993), Company, 1776, The Mystery of Edwin Drood, and On the Twentieth Century did not win the award for Best Revival of a Musical while his production of The Boys from Syracuse wasn’t even nominated. What was able to do with She Loves Me wasn’t some re-invention like the other nominees, just treating the musical with great respect while breathing some new life into it. I think Tony voters tend to vote for which production they found the most moving.
Best Lead Actor in a Musical:
1. Danny Burstein-Fiddler on the Roof
2. Leslie Odom, Jr.-Hamilton
3. Lin-Manuel Miranda-Hamilton
4. Alex Brightman-School of Rock
5. Zachary Levi-She Loves Me
This is probably the category where I’m most interested in seeing what happens on Tony night. We have the two leads from Hamilton competing against each other like they do in the musical. Will one of them win it or will they cancel (or in this case shoot) each other out? Lin-Manuel Miranda may already end up being acknowledged enough with the writing awards, but no performer on Broadway has been working as hard as him this season. Leslie Odom, Jr. has a scene-stealing role, but he only shares the show he’s in. If Tony voters end up spreading the wealth to other shows in this category, who could win? Alex Brightman gives a star-making (and physically demanding) performance in School of Rock, but as great as that show is, it has no snob appeal. Six-time nominee Danny Burstein who plays Tevye in Fiddler on the Roof is the veteran among the nominees. He’s been working on Broadway for over twenty years, first starting off in the ensemble, then worked his way up to principal roles, and now at almost 52 years old is in his very first Broadway show as lead (especially in a role he never would’ve thought he’d be playing). Zachary Levi probably gives the most charming performance out of all the nominees in She Loves Me, but I don’t know how much of a chance he has compared to his more demanding competition.
Best Lead Actress in a Musical:
1. Cynthia Erivo-The Color Purple
2. Carmen Cusack-Bright Star
3. Laura Benanti-She Loves Me
4. Jessie Mueller-Waitress
5. Phillipa Soo-Hamilton
This year, we have this category filled out with two previous winners (Benanti and Mueller) and three newcomers (Cusack, Erivo, and Soo). Ever since The Color Purple began performances last fall, Cynthia Erivo has been the favorite to win this award for her role as Celie. Interesting enough, when the original production of The Color Purple competed at the Tony Awards in 2006, almost everyone predicted Patti LuPone was going to win Best Lead Actress in a Musical for her performance as Mrs. Lovett in John Doyle’s production of Sweeney Todd. However, LA Times reporter Patrick Pacheco was one of the few people who predicted LaChanze (the original Celie) would win. When he made his prediction on Theater Talk, he was given a lot of flack for thinking it was possible (you can see what I'm talking about at 19:14). But who won the Tony that year? LaChanze! Could history repeat itself this year? If so, who could upset Erivo? Laura Benanti has been delivering very well in She Loves Me, but does her role have the gravitas of what the other nominees have? Jessie Mueller already won this award two years ago for Beautiful, so I don’t see Tony voters wanting to give her another one so soon for Waitress (especially since the Tonys aren’t the Emmys). Plus, as great as the buzz is for this performance, I’m not sure if it’s really as strong as it was for her performance as Carole King. I think it would be one of the biggest shockers in history if Phillipa Soo ends up winning for Hamilton. Not to discredit her by any means, it’s just that her character in Hamilton really seems to be more of a featured role compared to the other nominees. The one person I could see upsetting Erivo is Carmen Cusack for Bright Star. After having performed in London’s West End for over a decade, she came back to the United States in 2006 to star in the national touring productions of Wicked and South Pacific. But it wasn’t until this season when she made her long-awaited Broadway debut in the Tony nominated Steve Martin-Edie Brickell musical. She could pull an upset and win, but probably not.
Best Featured Actor in a Musical:
1. Daveed Diggs-Hamilton
2. Christopher Fitzgerald-Waitress
3. Christopher Jackson-Hamilton
4. Brandon Victor Dixon-Shuffle Along...
5. Jonathan Groff-Hamilton
There are three performances from Hamilton nominated in this category. Will one of them win or will they split the vote? If Tony voters would like to give Shuffle Along… something, they could give this award to Brandon Victor Dixon for his performance as composer/pianist Eubie Blake. Christopher Fitzgerald already won the Outer Critics Circle Award for his comedic performance in Waitress. Could this be the one award that musical takes home on Tony night? I’m predicting one of the Hamilton guys will win this award. Which one you may ask? That would be the one performance that already won a Lucille Lortel Award and Theatre World Award last season when the show was Off-Broadway.
Best Featured Actress in a Musical:
1. Renee Elise Goldsberry-Hamilton
2. Jane Krakowski-She Loves Me
3. Danielle Brooks-The Color Purple
4. Adrienne Warren-Shuffle Along...
5. Jennifer Simard-Disaster!
After having won the Lucille Lortel and Drama Desk Award last season, Renee Elise Goldsberry seems to have been the favorite to win this award for her standout performance as Angelica Schuyler in Hamilton. Can anyone upset her? Danielle Brooks is also a standout in The Color Purple; Jennifer Simard’s nomination for Disaster! is pretty much her award; The same thing could probably be said for Adrienne Warren’s performance in Shuffle Along… The one person I could see upsetting Goldsberry is Jane Krakowski for her standout performance in She Loves Me. It’s her first Broadway appearance since winning her Tony for Roundabout’s production of Nine back in 2003, and there is also a lot of affection towards their current production of She Loves Me. She could earn her fair share of votes, but probably not.
Best Direction of a Musical:
1. Thomas Kail-Hamilton
2. John Doyle-The Color Purple
3. Scott Ellis-She Loves Me
4. George C. Wolfe-Shuffle Along...
5. Michael Arden-Spring Awakening
They're are all well-deserved nominees, but it’s really Thomas Kail’s to lose. Not only is he likely going to go along with the Hamilton juggernaut, but he’s been having such a great year! First with Hamilton, then big success with Grease Live on FOX, as well as two recent Off-Broadway offerings.
Best Original Score:
1. Hamilton-Music & Lyrics By Lin-Manuel Miranda
2. Bright Star-Music By Steve Martin & Edie Brickell, Lyrics By Edie Brickell
3. Waitress-Music & Lyrics By Sara Bareilles
4. School of Rock-Music By Andrew Lloyd Webber, Lyrics By Glenn Slater
They all have great scores, but I think there’s no stopping Lin-Manuel Miranda’s brilliant score for Hamilton!
Best Book of a Musical:
1. Hamilton-Lin-Manuel Miranda
2. Shuffle Along...-George C. Wolfe
3. School of Rock-Julian Fellowes
4. Bright Star-Steve Martin
Some people may think that the book for a musical is basically the dialogue, but it’s not, it’s the overall structure of a musical. While I could see George C. Wolfe receiving his fair share of votes for his work on Shuffle Along…, I think Lin-Manuel Miranda once again has this award in the bag for Hamilton.
Best Choreography:
1. Savion Glover-Shuffle Along...
2. Andy Blankenbuehler-Hamilton
3. Hofesh Shechter-Fiddler on the Roof
4. Sergio Trujillo-On Your Feet!
5. Randy Skinner-Dames at Sea
They are all very well-deserved nominees, but there can only be one winner. Blankenbuehler could be going along with the Hamilton juggernaut, but Savion Glover’s work on Shuffle Along… is probably very vital to the success of that show. If he wins, I could see the producers wanting to capitalize on it when he goes into the show next month.
I’ll be back soon for my predictions on the Play categories!