As we're now about two days away from the announcement of this year's Tony Award nominations, I thought now would be a good time to share what my predictions are. On this page, I’ll be discussing the play categories.
Best Play:
Since there are 10 eligible candidates this year, there will automatically be five nominees. A sixth is possible, but only if there's a close race between two contenders within three votes. The five below are what I'm predicting.
Jaja’s African Hair Braiding
Mary Jane
Patriots
Prayer for the French Republic
Stereophonic
What Could Sneak In?: The only other contender I can see doing so is Mother Play. It’s a new work from Pulitzer Prize winner Paula Vogel, who is very well regarded in the theatre world. Plus, it potentially showing up in two to three acting categories could lead to a nom here. Although there are people who personally thought the performances elevated what they otherwise found to be not first-rate material.
Best Play:
Since there are 10 eligible candidates this year, there will automatically be five nominees. A sixth is possible, but only if there's a close race between two contenders within three votes. The five below are what I'm predicting.
Jaja’s African Hair Braiding
Mary Jane
Patriots
Prayer for the French Republic
Stereophonic
What Could Sneak In?: The only other contender I can see doing so is Mother Play. It’s a new work from Pulitzer Prize winner Paula Vogel, who is very well regarded in the theatre world. Plus, it potentially showing up in two to three acting categories could lead to a nom here. Although there are people who personally thought the performances elevated what they otherwise found to be not first-rate material.
Best Revival of a Play:
Since there are five eligible candidates this year, there will automatically be three nominees. A fourth is possible, but only if there's a close race between two contenders within three votes. The three below are what I'm predicting.
Appropriate
An Enemy of the People
Purlie Victorious: A Non-Confederate Romp Through The Cotton Patch
What Could Sneak In?: I’d say the one with a greater chance of doing so is Doubt: A Parable. Roundabout Theatre Company's revival of John Patrick Shanley’s Pulitzer Prize-winning drama was very well reviewed by critics. If it gets two to four acting nominations, don’t be surprised if those lead to a nom here. Meanwhile, Lincoln Center Theater’s revisal of Anton Chekhov’s Uncle Vanya has garnered more mixed reactions.
Now onto the other categories. All of them (with one exception) are set to have five nominees. Although a sixth or seventh slot is possible, but only if there's a tie in the nominating process.
Best Performance By a Leading Actor in a Play:
William Jackson Harper-Uncle Vanya
Leslie Odom, Jr.-Purlie Victorious: A Non-Confederate Romp Through The Cotton Patch
Liev Schreiber-Doubt: A Parable
Jeremy Strong-An Enemy of the People
Michael Stuhlbarg-Patriots
Who Could Sneak In?: I guess Steve Carell in Uncle Vanya. I think that’ll have to depend on how the nominating committee as a whole responds to the production. Although even those who weren’t as fond of it personally found William Jackson Harper to be the bigger standout.
Best Performance By a Leading Actress in a Play:
As there are only eight eligible candidates this year, there will automatically be four nominees in this category. A fifth (and sixth) slot is possible, but only if there's a tie in the nominating process.
Jessica Lange-Mother Play
Rachel McAdams-Mary Jane
Sarah Paulson-Appropriate
Amy Ryan-Doubt: A Parable
Who Could Sneak In?: The only one I can see doing so is Betsy Aidem for Prayer for the French Republic. She’s this journeymen character actress who’s been in the business for decades given a rare leading role on Broadway. She could find her way into this category alongside more established names of the big and small screens.
Best Performance By a Featured Actor in a Play:
Will Brill-Stereophonic
Eli Gelb-Stereophonic
Michael Imperioli-An Enemy of the People
Will Keen-Patriots
Corey Stoll-Appropriate
Who Could Sneak In?: Tom Pecinka is another possibility for Stereophonic. Michael Esper is a Broadway vet with a big role in Appropriate. He could be a dark horse. Caleb Eberhardt could be a surprise coattail bid for An Enemy of the People. Jim Parsons has gotten acclaim for his work in Mother Play.
Best Performance By a Featured Actress in a Play:
Francis Benhamou-Prayer for the French Republic
Quincy Tyler Bernstine-Doubt: A Parable
Celia Keenan-Bolger-Mother Play
Sarah Pidgeon-Stereophonic
Kara Young-Purlie Victorious: A Non-Confederate Romp Through The Cotton Patch
Who Could Sneak In?: If Stereophonic does really well in nominations, Juliana Canfield could show up here. Same goes for Natalie Gold in Appropriate. Zoe Kazan in Doubt is another possibility. She’s in the role that earned Heather Goldenhersh a Tony nomination for the original production and Amy Adams an Oscar nod for the 2008 film adaptation. If Mary Jane overperforms, Brenda Wehle could show up for her buzzed about final scene with Rachel McAdams. Jaja’s African Hair Braiding may struggle getting any of its actresses in here due to the ensemble nature of that play. Although some think Zenzi Williams has the best shot.
Best Direction of a Play:
Daniel Aukin-Stereophonic
Sam Gold-An Enemy of the People
Rupert Goold-Patriots
Kenny Leon-Purlie Victorious: A Non-Confederate Romp Through The Cotton Patch
Lila Neugebauer-Appropriate
Who Could Sneak In?: Scott Ellis has been nominated nine times before, but doesn’t always get in. Him getting recognized for Doubt this year wouldn’t be too surprising. Then again, any of Manhattan Theatre Club’s three Broadway productions from this past season could be dark horses such as David Cromer (Prayer for the French Republic), Anne Kauffman (Mary Jane), and/or Whitney White (Jaja’s African Hair Braiding).
Nominations will be announced by Tony winners Jesse Tyler Ferguson and Renée Elise Goldsberry. A selection of categories will be revealed on CBS Mornings at 8:30am with everything else on the Tonys’ YouTube channel at 9:00am.
Since there are five eligible candidates this year, there will automatically be three nominees. A fourth is possible, but only if there's a close race between two contenders within three votes. The three below are what I'm predicting.
Appropriate
An Enemy of the People
Purlie Victorious: A Non-Confederate Romp Through The Cotton Patch
What Could Sneak In?: I’d say the one with a greater chance of doing so is Doubt: A Parable. Roundabout Theatre Company's revival of John Patrick Shanley’s Pulitzer Prize-winning drama was very well reviewed by critics. If it gets two to four acting nominations, don’t be surprised if those lead to a nom here. Meanwhile, Lincoln Center Theater’s revisal of Anton Chekhov’s Uncle Vanya has garnered more mixed reactions.
Now onto the other categories. All of them (with one exception) are set to have five nominees. Although a sixth or seventh slot is possible, but only if there's a tie in the nominating process.
Best Performance By a Leading Actor in a Play:
William Jackson Harper-Uncle Vanya
Leslie Odom, Jr.-Purlie Victorious: A Non-Confederate Romp Through The Cotton Patch
Liev Schreiber-Doubt: A Parable
Jeremy Strong-An Enemy of the People
Michael Stuhlbarg-Patriots
Who Could Sneak In?: I guess Steve Carell in Uncle Vanya. I think that’ll have to depend on how the nominating committee as a whole responds to the production. Although even those who weren’t as fond of it personally found William Jackson Harper to be the bigger standout.
Best Performance By a Leading Actress in a Play:
As there are only eight eligible candidates this year, there will automatically be four nominees in this category. A fifth (and sixth) slot is possible, but only if there's a tie in the nominating process.
Jessica Lange-Mother Play
Rachel McAdams-Mary Jane
Sarah Paulson-Appropriate
Amy Ryan-Doubt: A Parable
Who Could Sneak In?: The only one I can see doing so is Betsy Aidem for Prayer for the French Republic. She’s this journeymen character actress who’s been in the business for decades given a rare leading role on Broadway. She could find her way into this category alongside more established names of the big and small screens.
Best Performance By a Featured Actor in a Play:
Will Brill-Stereophonic
Eli Gelb-Stereophonic
Michael Imperioli-An Enemy of the People
Will Keen-Patriots
Corey Stoll-Appropriate
Who Could Sneak In?: Tom Pecinka is another possibility for Stereophonic. Michael Esper is a Broadway vet with a big role in Appropriate. He could be a dark horse. Caleb Eberhardt could be a surprise coattail bid for An Enemy of the People. Jim Parsons has gotten acclaim for his work in Mother Play.
Best Performance By a Featured Actress in a Play:
Francis Benhamou-Prayer for the French Republic
Quincy Tyler Bernstine-Doubt: A Parable
Celia Keenan-Bolger-Mother Play
Sarah Pidgeon-Stereophonic
Kara Young-Purlie Victorious: A Non-Confederate Romp Through The Cotton Patch
Who Could Sneak In?: If Stereophonic does really well in nominations, Juliana Canfield could show up here. Same goes for Natalie Gold in Appropriate. Zoe Kazan in Doubt is another possibility. She’s in the role that earned Heather Goldenhersh a Tony nomination for the original production and Amy Adams an Oscar nod for the 2008 film adaptation. If Mary Jane overperforms, Brenda Wehle could show up for her buzzed about final scene with Rachel McAdams. Jaja’s African Hair Braiding may struggle getting any of its actresses in here due to the ensemble nature of that play. Although some think Zenzi Williams has the best shot.
Best Direction of a Play:
Daniel Aukin-Stereophonic
Sam Gold-An Enemy of the People
Rupert Goold-Patriots
Kenny Leon-Purlie Victorious: A Non-Confederate Romp Through The Cotton Patch
Lila Neugebauer-Appropriate
Who Could Sneak In?: Scott Ellis has been nominated nine times before, but doesn’t always get in. Him getting recognized for Doubt this year wouldn’t be too surprising. Then again, any of Manhattan Theatre Club’s three Broadway productions from this past season could be dark horses such as David Cromer (Prayer for the French Republic), Anne Kauffman (Mary Jane), and/or Whitney White (Jaja’s African Hair Braiding).
Nominations will be announced by Tony winners Jesse Tyler Ferguson and Renée Elise Goldsberry. A selection of categories will be revealed on CBS Mornings at 8:30am with everything else on the Tonys’ YouTube channel at 9:00am.