As we're now about one day away from the announcement of this year's Tony Award nominations, I thought now would be a good time to share what my predictions are. On this page, I’ll be discussing the musical categories.
Best Musical:
Since there are 15 eligible candidates this year, there will automatically be five nominees. A sixth is possible, but only if there's a close race between two contenders within three votes.
Days of Wine and Roses
Hell’s Kitchen
Here Lies Love
Illinoise
Suffs
What Could Sneak In?: The Notebook, The Outsiders, and Water for Elephants each appear to have their share of admirers. If one of them sneaks in, probably Water for Elephants given that it did receive a better critical response than expected. While critics aren't the be-all end-all when it comes to Tony nominations given that they're not members of the nominating committee, both groups still tend to be like minded more often than not. Although if any of my predicted five falls, probably Days of Wine and Roses. Despite all the acclaim it received, the show still proved to be divisive among general audiences.
Best Revival of a Musical:
Since there are six eligible candidates this year, there will automatically be four nominees. A fifth is possible, but only if there's a close race between two contenders within three votes.
Cabaret at the Kit Kat Klub
Merrily We Roll Along
Monty Python’s Spamalot
The Who’s Tommy
What Could Sneak In?: The other two have their pros and cons. Gutenberg! The Musical! may not have been a big critical hit, but it was a bit of an event during its limited run back in the fall thanks to the star turns from Josh Gad & Andrew Rannells as well as the different celebrity guest producers at every performance. Meanwhile, The Wiz recently opened, thus it's more fresh in people's minds. However, the response to that overall has been very mixed. Of my predicted four, Spamalot could be the most likely to fall given a potential low nomination haul (I only have it showing up in one other category). Then again, the response to that was much more favorable than both Gutenberg! and The Wiz combined.
Now onto the other categories. All of them are set to have five nominees. Although a sixth or seventh slot is possible, but only if there's a tie in the nominating process.
Best Performance By a Leading Actor in a Musical:
Ali Louis Bourzgui-The Who’s Tommy
Jonathan Groff-Merrily We Roll Along
Brian d’Arcy James-Days of Wine and Roses
Eddie Redmayne-Cabaret
Chip Zien-Harmony
Who Could Sneak In?: If either of these three shows overperform in nominations, I can see any of their following leading men sneaking in: Brody Grant (The Outsiders), Grant Gustin (Water for Elephants), and/or Dorian Harwood (The Notebook). If any of my predicted five falls, it'll most likely be Chip Zien. Harmony came and went with little fanfare back in the late fall/early winter and looks like it won't show up in any other category at this point. Although Zien is an industry veteran who's spent decades on the New York stage (with credits that includes appearances in the original casts of Into the Woods and Falsettos), but has never garnered a Tony nomination. Here's hoping he gets it this time.
Best Performance By a Leading Actress in a Musical:
Eden Espinosa-Lempicka
Maleah Joi Moon-Hell’s Kitchen
Kelli O’Hara-Days of Wine and Roses
Maryann Plunkett-The Notebook
Shaina Taub-Suffs
Who Could Sneak In?: On paper, it would make sense for Gayle Rankin to get nominated for Cabaret. Her character, Sally Bowles, is one of the greatest leading female roles in musical theatre. It won Natasha Richardson a Tony for the 1998 revival. Not to mention that Alyson Reed was nominated for her portrayal in the first revival in 1987. Then again, Jill Haworth wasn't nominated for the original production in 1967, neither was Michelle Williams for the previous revival in 2014. Plus, reactions to both the current revival and Rankin's performance have been very divisive. If any of my predicted five falls, I can see it being Eden Espinosa. Lempicka wasn't a critical darling, and some nominators may feel if there was a better musical around her, they'd be taking her a lot more seriously. However, Espinosa is a main stem favorite giving a much buzzed about performance, so she could still get in anyway. Although if Water for Elephants overperforms, don't be surprised if Isabelle McCalla shows up here. Then again, if Here Lies Love is really well remembered by the nominators, Arielle Jacobs could get in as a surprise coattail bid.
Best Performance By a Featured Actor in a Musical:
Paul Alexander Nolan-Water for Elephants
Daniel Radcliffe-Merrily We Roll Along
Conrad Ricamora-Here Lies Love
Steven Skybell-Cabaret
Ricky Ubeda-Illinoise
Who Could Sneak In?: There are multiple possibilities here. Brandon Victor Dixon is an industry favorite who could show up as a coattail nom for Hell's Kitchen. Many found Ben Cook to be a standout in Illinoise. Roger Bart is a beloved character actor with a standout role in Back to the Future. Although in that same musical is Hugh Coles, reprising a part that earned him an Olivier nomination for the London production. If anyone from The Outsiders makes the cut, it could be Joshua Boone given that a number of people found him to be the standout. Then again, Michael Urie has become quite a theatre vet in recent years. I can see good will towards him paving the way for a spot here for his work in Spamalot. If not, maybe Christopher Fitzgerald instead given that he's in the roles that earned the late Michael McGrath a nomination for the original production. There's also John Ambrosino in The Who's Tommy. He plays Uncle Ernie, which earned Paul Kandel a nom for the original.
Best Performance By a Featured Actress in a Musical:
Shoshana Bean-Hell’s Kitchen
Leslie Rodriguez Kritzer-Spamalot
Kecia Lewis-Hell’s Kitchen
Lindsay Mendez-Merrily We Roll Along
Bebe Neuwirth-Cabaret
Who Could Sneak In?: There are multiple women from Suffs who could. Among them are Jenn Colella, a previous nominee for Come From Away, and Nikki M. James, a previous winner for The Book of Mormon. Either one of them gets nominated, they both get in, or they cancel each other out. Then again, Joy Woods could be a dark horse for her performance as Middle Allie in The Notebook. She's said to have a standout number in that show. There's also Alison Luff in The Who's Tommy. She plays Mrs. Walker, which earned Marcia Mitzman a nomination for the original production.
Best Direction of a Musical:
Maria Friedman-Merrily We Roll Along
Michael Grief-Hell’s Kitchen
Des McAnuff-The Who’s Tommy
Justin Peck-Illinoise
Alex Timbers-Here Lies Love
Who Could Sneak In?: If Cabaret doesn't prove to be that divisive among the nominating committee, Rebecca Frecknall could show up here. She already won an Olivier for helming the West End incarnation. Leigh Silverman is a previous nominee for Violet back in 2014 who helped shepherd Shania Taub's Suffs. If Water for Elephants overperforms, Jessica Stone could show up here. Especially coming off of helming last year's Best Musical champ, Kimberly Akimbo. Dana Taymor is another dark horse possibility for The Outsiders.
Best Book of a Musical:
Days of Wine and Roses-Craig Lucas
Hell’s Kitchen-Kristoffer Diaz
Here Lies Love-David Byrne
Illinoise-Justin Peck & Jackie Sibblies Drury
Suffs-Shaina Taub
What Could Sneak In?: Of my predicted lineup, Hell's Kitchen and Suffs are the only two that feel secure. I can see a world where the other three could miss. If Days of Wine and Roses doesn't get in for Best Musical, then it likely won't show up here. Here Lies Love doesn't have a book credit, so it could be vulnerable. Then again, it arguably still has a structure. Same goes for Illinoise, which at least has a story credit. Maybe The Notebook (Bekah Brunstetter), The Outsiders (Adam Rapp), and/or Water for Elephants (Rick Elice) will surprise here.
Best Original Score:
Days of Wine and Roses-Music & Lyrics By Adam Guettel
Here Lies Love-Music By David Byrne & Fatboy Slim, Lyrics By David Byrne
The Notebook-Music & Lyrics By Ingrid Michaelson
Stereophonic-Music & Lyrics By Will Butler
Suffs-Music & Lyrics By Shaina Taub
What Could Sneak In?: If The Outsiders and/or Water for Elephants overperform, they could show up here. Then again, Lempicka may have been no critical darling, but the producers have been highlighting some of the score's bigger highlights.
Best Choreography:
Camille A. Brown-Hell’s Kitchen
Rick Kuperman & Jeff Kuperman-The Outsiders
Lorin Latarro-The Who’s Tommy
Annie-B Parson-Here Lies Love
Justin Peck-Illinoise
Who Could Sneak In?: If Cabaret does better with the nominating committee than I'm expecting, Julia Cheng could show up. Lorin Latarro could follow Jennifer Weber's footsteps from last year by getting two bids with both The Who's Tommy and The Heart of Rock and Roll. Josh Rhodes could be a dark horse for crafting multiple showstopping production numbers in Spamalot. Jesse Robb & Shana Carroll both crafted multiple production numbers (especially in the style of a circus) for Water for Elephants.
Nominations will be announced by Tony winners Jesse Tyler Ferguson and Renée Elise Goldsberry. A selection of categories will be revealed on CBS Mornings at 8:30am with everything else on the Tonys’ YouTube channel at 9:00am.
Best Musical:
Since there are 15 eligible candidates this year, there will automatically be five nominees. A sixth is possible, but only if there's a close race between two contenders within three votes.
Days of Wine and Roses
Hell’s Kitchen
Here Lies Love
Illinoise
Suffs
What Could Sneak In?: The Notebook, The Outsiders, and Water for Elephants each appear to have their share of admirers. If one of them sneaks in, probably Water for Elephants given that it did receive a better critical response than expected. While critics aren't the be-all end-all when it comes to Tony nominations given that they're not members of the nominating committee, both groups still tend to be like minded more often than not. Although if any of my predicted five falls, probably Days of Wine and Roses. Despite all the acclaim it received, the show still proved to be divisive among general audiences.
Best Revival of a Musical:
Since there are six eligible candidates this year, there will automatically be four nominees. A fifth is possible, but only if there's a close race between two contenders within three votes.
Cabaret at the Kit Kat Klub
Merrily We Roll Along
Monty Python’s Spamalot
The Who’s Tommy
What Could Sneak In?: The other two have their pros and cons. Gutenberg! The Musical! may not have been a big critical hit, but it was a bit of an event during its limited run back in the fall thanks to the star turns from Josh Gad & Andrew Rannells as well as the different celebrity guest producers at every performance. Meanwhile, The Wiz recently opened, thus it's more fresh in people's minds. However, the response to that overall has been very mixed. Of my predicted four, Spamalot could be the most likely to fall given a potential low nomination haul (I only have it showing up in one other category). Then again, the response to that was much more favorable than both Gutenberg! and The Wiz combined.
Now onto the other categories. All of them are set to have five nominees. Although a sixth or seventh slot is possible, but only if there's a tie in the nominating process.
Best Performance By a Leading Actor in a Musical:
Ali Louis Bourzgui-The Who’s Tommy
Jonathan Groff-Merrily We Roll Along
Brian d’Arcy James-Days of Wine and Roses
Eddie Redmayne-Cabaret
Chip Zien-Harmony
Who Could Sneak In?: If either of these three shows overperform in nominations, I can see any of their following leading men sneaking in: Brody Grant (The Outsiders), Grant Gustin (Water for Elephants), and/or Dorian Harwood (The Notebook). If any of my predicted five falls, it'll most likely be Chip Zien. Harmony came and went with little fanfare back in the late fall/early winter and looks like it won't show up in any other category at this point. Although Zien is an industry veteran who's spent decades on the New York stage (with credits that includes appearances in the original casts of Into the Woods and Falsettos), but has never garnered a Tony nomination. Here's hoping he gets it this time.
Best Performance By a Leading Actress in a Musical:
Eden Espinosa-Lempicka
Maleah Joi Moon-Hell’s Kitchen
Kelli O’Hara-Days of Wine and Roses
Maryann Plunkett-The Notebook
Shaina Taub-Suffs
Who Could Sneak In?: On paper, it would make sense for Gayle Rankin to get nominated for Cabaret. Her character, Sally Bowles, is one of the greatest leading female roles in musical theatre. It won Natasha Richardson a Tony for the 1998 revival. Not to mention that Alyson Reed was nominated for her portrayal in the first revival in 1987. Then again, Jill Haworth wasn't nominated for the original production in 1967, neither was Michelle Williams for the previous revival in 2014. Plus, reactions to both the current revival and Rankin's performance have been very divisive. If any of my predicted five falls, I can see it being Eden Espinosa. Lempicka wasn't a critical darling, and some nominators may feel if there was a better musical around her, they'd be taking her a lot more seriously. However, Espinosa is a main stem favorite giving a much buzzed about performance, so she could still get in anyway. Although if Water for Elephants overperforms, don't be surprised if Isabelle McCalla shows up here. Then again, if Here Lies Love is really well remembered by the nominators, Arielle Jacobs could get in as a surprise coattail bid.
Best Performance By a Featured Actor in a Musical:
Paul Alexander Nolan-Water for Elephants
Daniel Radcliffe-Merrily We Roll Along
Conrad Ricamora-Here Lies Love
Steven Skybell-Cabaret
Ricky Ubeda-Illinoise
Who Could Sneak In?: There are multiple possibilities here. Brandon Victor Dixon is an industry favorite who could show up as a coattail nom for Hell's Kitchen. Many found Ben Cook to be a standout in Illinoise. Roger Bart is a beloved character actor with a standout role in Back to the Future. Although in that same musical is Hugh Coles, reprising a part that earned him an Olivier nomination for the London production. If anyone from The Outsiders makes the cut, it could be Joshua Boone given that a number of people found him to be the standout. Then again, Michael Urie has become quite a theatre vet in recent years. I can see good will towards him paving the way for a spot here for his work in Spamalot. If not, maybe Christopher Fitzgerald instead given that he's in the roles that earned the late Michael McGrath a nomination for the original production. There's also John Ambrosino in The Who's Tommy. He plays Uncle Ernie, which earned Paul Kandel a nom for the original.
Best Performance By a Featured Actress in a Musical:
Shoshana Bean-Hell’s Kitchen
Leslie Rodriguez Kritzer-Spamalot
Kecia Lewis-Hell’s Kitchen
Lindsay Mendez-Merrily We Roll Along
Bebe Neuwirth-Cabaret
Who Could Sneak In?: There are multiple women from Suffs who could. Among them are Jenn Colella, a previous nominee for Come From Away, and Nikki M. James, a previous winner for The Book of Mormon. Either one of them gets nominated, they both get in, or they cancel each other out. Then again, Joy Woods could be a dark horse for her performance as Middle Allie in The Notebook. She's said to have a standout number in that show. There's also Alison Luff in The Who's Tommy. She plays Mrs. Walker, which earned Marcia Mitzman a nomination for the original production.
Best Direction of a Musical:
Maria Friedman-Merrily We Roll Along
Michael Grief-Hell’s Kitchen
Des McAnuff-The Who’s Tommy
Justin Peck-Illinoise
Alex Timbers-Here Lies Love
Who Could Sneak In?: If Cabaret doesn't prove to be that divisive among the nominating committee, Rebecca Frecknall could show up here. She already won an Olivier for helming the West End incarnation. Leigh Silverman is a previous nominee for Violet back in 2014 who helped shepherd Shania Taub's Suffs. If Water for Elephants overperforms, Jessica Stone could show up here. Especially coming off of helming last year's Best Musical champ, Kimberly Akimbo. Dana Taymor is another dark horse possibility for The Outsiders.
Best Book of a Musical:
Days of Wine and Roses-Craig Lucas
Hell’s Kitchen-Kristoffer Diaz
Here Lies Love-David Byrne
Illinoise-Justin Peck & Jackie Sibblies Drury
Suffs-Shaina Taub
What Could Sneak In?: Of my predicted lineup, Hell's Kitchen and Suffs are the only two that feel secure. I can see a world where the other three could miss. If Days of Wine and Roses doesn't get in for Best Musical, then it likely won't show up here. Here Lies Love doesn't have a book credit, so it could be vulnerable. Then again, it arguably still has a structure. Same goes for Illinoise, which at least has a story credit. Maybe The Notebook (Bekah Brunstetter), The Outsiders (Adam Rapp), and/or Water for Elephants (Rick Elice) will surprise here.
Best Original Score:
Days of Wine and Roses-Music & Lyrics By Adam Guettel
Here Lies Love-Music By David Byrne & Fatboy Slim, Lyrics By David Byrne
The Notebook-Music & Lyrics By Ingrid Michaelson
Stereophonic-Music & Lyrics By Will Butler
Suffs-Music & Lyrics By Shaina Taub
What Could Sneak In?: If The Outsiders and/or Water for Elephants overperform, they could show up here. Then again, Lempicka may have been no critical darling, but the producers have been highlighting some of the score's bigger highlights.
Best Choreography:
Camille A. Brown-Hell’s Kitchen
Rick Kuperman & Jeff Kuperman-The Outsiders
Lorin Latarro-The Who’s Tommy
Annie-B Parson-Here Lies Love
Justin Peck-Illinoise
Who Could Sneak In?: If Cabaret does better with the nominating committee than I'm expecting, Julia Cheng could show up. Lorin Latarro could follow Jennifer Weber's footsteps from last year by getting two bids with both The Who's Tommy and The Heart of Rock and Roll. Josh Rhodes could be a dark horse for crafting multiple showstopping production numbers in Spamalot. Jesse Robb & Shana Carroll both crafted multiple production numbers (especially in the style of a circus) for Water for Elephants.
Nominations will be announced by Tony winners Jesse Tyler Ferguson and Renée Elise Goldsberry. A selection of categories will be revealed on CBS Mornings at 8:30am with everything else on the Tonys’ YouTube channel at 9:00am.