As we're now about one day away from the announcement of this year's Tony Award nominations, I thought now would be a good time to share what my predictions are. On this page, I’ll be discussing the play categories.
Best Play:
Since there are 17 eligible candidates this year, there will automatically be five nominees. A sixth is possible, but only if there's a close race between two contenders within three votes. The five below are what I'm predicting.
Between Riverside and Crazy
Cost of Living
Fat Ham
Leopoldstadt
Prima Facie
What Could Sneak In?: This was such a crowded season for new plays on Broadway. The run of Ain't No Mo' from back in the fall was short-lived, but ended up receiving a lot of press with a save the show campaign. Good Night, Oscar wasn't particularly well liked by critics. Although Sam Eckmann of Gold Derby mentioned that "people who are actually in the industry (aka Tony voters) are VERY high on it, especially for Hayes." Sam mentioned before nominations were announced last year that he met people within the industry who liked MJ way more than the critics did. That show ended up receiving 10 bids overall, won 4 awards, and probably came in second to A Strange Loop for Best Musical. If Good Night, Oscar has a similar trajectory this year, we should all pay attention to what he hears more often. Life of Pi is likely going to receive about a half a dozen or so nominations in other categories. While I can see all of that leading to a nod for Best Play, I don't have it getting in for two reasons. Not only is this year's crop of contenders so crowded, but I can see some nominators writing Life of Pi off as more of an achievement through its stagecraft as opposed to the script itself. Of my predicted lineup, the one that could miss is probably Prima Facie because there were some critics who did have issues with the script. Although audiences in general have apparently been feeling all types of emotions at that play through more than just Jodie Comer's performance. If any category this year is in need of a tie to allow more nominees, this would have to be it.
Best Revival of a Play:
Since there are six eligible candidates this year, there will automatically be four nominees. A fifth is possible, but only if there's a close race between two contenders within three votes. The four below are what I'm predicting.
Death of a Salesman
A Doll's House
The Piano Lesson
Topdog/Underdog
What Could Sneak In?: Despite the small slate of contenders, they were all pretty well liked by critics and audiences (even if some of them had their share of detractors). There are definitely arguments to be made as to which of the other two could sneak in and which of my predicted four could miss. Like A Doll's House had many fans who felt the stripped down staging made them look at Henrik Ibsen's classic differently. Although others admired the vision behind that production, even if they weren't necessarily satisfied with the end results. The Broadway premiere of Adrienne Kennedy's Ohio State Murders was well regarded back in the winter, but it flopping commercially and closing early could have some people perceiving it as a failure. There's also the question of how The Sign in Sidney Brustein's Window is going to factor in this race. That revival started at the Brooklyn Academy of Music earlier this year, then quickly moved to the main stem for two preview performances before officially opening this past week. It's gonna be interesting to see what happens.
Now onto the other categories. All of them (with one exception) are set to have five nominees. Although a sixth or seventh slot is possible, but only if there's a tie in the nominating process.
Best Performance By a Leading Actor in a Play:
Hiran Abeysekera-Life of Pi
Sean Hayes-Good Night, Oscar
Stephen McKinley Henderson-Between Riverside and Crazy
Wendell Pierce-Death of a Salesman
Marcel Spears-Fat Ham
Who Could Sneak In?: Probably just as crowded of a category as Best Play is this year. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II and Corey Hawkins both appear to be on the bubble for Topdog/Underdog. Either they both get in or they cancel each other out. Although if one of them makes it, maybe Hawkins given that he's in the role that earned Jeffrey Wright a nomination for the original production back in 2002. Similar to Best Play Revival, whether or not Oscar Isaac makes the cut here for The Sign in Sidney Brustein's Window is a big question mark. In a weaker year, Jefferson Mays would probably have a great shot of being remembered for his performance(s) in the recent one-man stage adaptation of A Christmas Carol. If The Piano Lesson overperforms in nominations, I can see John David Washington getting in as a coattail bid. His character earned Charles S. Dutton a bid for the original Broadway production back in 1990.
Best Performance By a Leading Actress in a Play:
As there are only seven eligible candidates this year, there will automatically be four nominees in this category. A fifth (and sixth) slot is possible, but only if there's a tie in the nominating process.
Rachel Brosnahan-The Sign in Sidney Brustein’s Window
Jessica Chastain-A Doll’s House
Jodie Comer-Prima Facie
Audra McDonald-Ohio State Murders
Who Could Sneak In?: Jessica Hecht and Laura Linney are both Broadway vets starring opposite each other in the recently opened and warmly received Summer, 1976. If only one of them gets in, it'll probably be Linney given that she's been nominated for five of her six main stem appearances since The Crucible back in 2002. As of now, the only exception is Les Liaisons Dangereuses in 2008. However, the fact that she and Hecht are apparently equal leads in Summer, 1976 might lead to a vote-split with nominators. That just leaves Zoë Wanamaker in Pictures From Home. She's been nominated for all four of her previous Broadway outings and a bid here would continue that impressive track record. Although given that she's the least buzzy of everyone in this category coupled with her play being very much under the radar throughout its run makes me doubtful.
Best Performance By a Featured Actor in a Play:
Chris Herbie Holland-Fat Ham
Samuel L. Jackson-The Piano Lesson
David Krumholtz-Leopoldstadt
Arian Moayed-A Doll’s House
Brandon Uranowtiz-Leopoldstadt
Who Could Sneak In?: Jordan E. Cooper, who wrote Ain't No Mo', also had a scene stealing role in that play. André De Shields is a beloved figure of the Broadway community with a prominent role in the most recent revival of Death of a Salesman. Although there is the question of if he made enough of an impact in that production. There's other main stem vets in The Piano Lesson who could sneak in here such as Ray Fisher and Michael Potts. The former in particular is in a role that earned Rocky Carroll a nomination for the original production. Not to mention that Gregg Mozgala and David Zayas both had prominent roles and acclaim for their work in Cost of Living from back in the fall.
Best Performance By a Featured Actress in a Play:
Danielle Brooks-The Piano Lesson
Faye Castelow-Leopoldstadt
Sharon D. Clarke-Death of a Salesman
Crystal Lucas-Perry-Ain't No Mo'
Miriam Silverman-The Sign in Sidney Brustein's Window
Who Could Sneak In?: Many found D'Arcy Carden's comedic performance in The Thanksgiving Play to be such a standout. Although it's possible she could split her support with her co-star, Katie Finneran. The latter of whom has won twice before for her memorable comedic turns in Noises Off (2002) and Promises, Promises (2010). Depending on how Fat Ham performs with the nominating committee, Nikki Crawford could show up here with a coattail bid. For a while, I had Katy Sullivan getting in for Cost of Living. Although she too could also split her support with her co-star, Kara Young. The latter of whom just came on the scene with her nomination for Clyde's last year.
Best Direction of a Play:
Saheem Ali-Fat Ham
LaTanya Richardson Jackson-The Piano Lesson
Jamie Lloyd-A Doll’s House
Patrick Marber-Leopoldstadt
Max Webster-Life of Pi
Who Could Sneak In?: Michael Arden could be dark horse for A Christmas Carol. Despite that primarily being a one-man show, he apparently provided some impressive stagecraft throughout. The same could probably be said for Justin Martin with Prima Facie. He especially had a difficult task of making sure Jodie Comer keeps up with the pace of the material. Miranda Cromwell won the Olivier (with Marianne Elliott) for her revival of Death of a Salesman. She had this amazing concept to have Arthur Miller's classic characters, usually played by white actors, portrayed by black actors. If Topdog/Underdog does very well in nominations, expect Kenny Leon to show up here.
Nominations for this year’s Tony Awards will be announced by last year’s winner for MJ, Myles Frost, and current Funny Girl star, Lea Michele. A selection of categories will be revealed on CBS Mornings at 8:30am with everything else on the Tonys’ YouTube channel at 9:00am.
Best Play:
Since there are 17 eligible candidates this year, there will automatically be five nominees. A sixth is possible, but only if there's a close race between two contenders within three votes. The five below are what I'm predicting.
Between Riverside and Crazy
Cost of Living
Fat Ham
Leopoldstadt
Prima Facie
What Could Sneak In?: This was such a crowded season for new plays on Broadway. The run of Ain't No Mo' from back in the fall was short-lived, but ended up receiving a lot of press with a save the show campaign. Good Night, Oscar wasn't particularly well liked by critics. Although Sam Eckmann of Gold Derby mentioned that "people who are actually in the industry (aka Tony voters) are VERY high on it, especially for Hayes." Sam mentioned before nominations were announced last year that he met people within the industry who liked MJ way more than the critics did. That show ended up receiving 10 bids overall, won 4 awards, and probably came in second to A Strange Loop for Best Musical. If Good Night, Oscar has a similar trajectory this year, we should all pay attention to what he hears more often. Life of Pi is likely going to receive about a half a dozen or so nominations in other categories. While I can see all of that leading to a nod for Best Play, I don't have it getting in for two reasons. Not only is this year's crop of contenders so crowded, but I can see some nominators writing Life of Pi off as more of an achievement through its stagecraft as opposed to the script itself. Of my predicted lineup, the one that could miss is probably Prima Facie because there were some critics who did have issues with the script. Although audiences in general have apparently been feeling all types of emotions at that play through more than just Jodie Comer's performance. If any category this year is in need of a tie to allow more nominees, this would have to be it.
Best Revival of a Play:
Since there are six eligible candidates this year, there will automatically be four nominees. A fifth is possible, but only if there's a close race between two contenders within three votes. The four below are what I'm predicting.
Death of a Salesman
A Doll's House
The Piano Lesson
Topdog/Underdog
What Could Sneak In?: Despite the small slate of contenders, they were all pretty well liked by critics and audiences (even if some of them had their share of detractors). There are definitely arguments to be made as to which of the other two could sneak in and which of my predicted four could miss. Like A Doll's House had many fans who felt the stripped down staging made them look at Henrik Ibsen's classic differently. Although others admired the vision behind that production, even if they weren't necessarily satisfied with the end results. The Broadway premiere of Adrienne Kennedy's Ohio State Murders was well regarded back in the winter, but it flopping commercially and closing early could have some people perceiving it as a failure. There's also the question of how The Sign in Sidney Brustein's Window is going to factor in this race. That revival started at the Brooklyn Academy of Music earlier this year, then quickly moved to the main stem for two preview performances before officially opening this past week. It's gonna be interesting to see what happens.
Now onto the other categories. All of them (with one exception) are set to have five nominees. Although a sixth or seventh slot is possible, but only if there's a tie in the nominating process.
Best Performance By a Leading Actor in a Play:
Hiran Abeysekera-Life of Pi
Sean Hayes-Good Night, Oscar
Stephen McKinley Henderson-Between Riverside and Crazy
Wendell Pierce-Death of a Salesman
Marcel Spears-Fat Ham
Who Could Sneak In?: Probably just as crowded of a category as Best Play is this year. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II and Corey Hawkins both appear to be on the bubble for Topdog/Underdog. Either they both get in or they cancel each other out. Although if one of them makes it, maybe Hawkins given that he's in the role that earned Jeffrey Wright a nomination for the original production back in 2002. Similar to Best Play Revival, whether or not Oscar Isaac makes the cut here for The Sign in Sidney Brustein's Window is a big question mark. In a weaker year, Jefferson Mays would probably have a great shot of being remembered for his performance(s) in the recent one-man stage adaptation of A Christmas Carol. If The Piano Lesson overperforms in nominations, I can see John David Washington getting in as a coattail bid. His character earned Charles S. Dutton a bid for the original Broadway production back in 1990.
Best Performance By a Leading Actress in a Play:
As there are only seven eligible candidates this year, there will automatically be four nominees in this category. A fifth (and sixth) slot is possible, but only if there's a tie in the nominating process.
Rachel Brosnahan-The Sign in Sidney Brustein’s Window
Jessica Chastain-A Doll’s House
Jodie Comer-Prima Facie
Audra McDonald-Ohio State Murders
Who Could Sneak In?: Jessica Hecht and Laura Linney are both Broadway vets starring opposite each other in the recently opened and warmly received Summer, 1976. If only one of them gets in, it'll probably be Linney given that she's been nominated for five of her six main stem appearances since The Crucible back in 2002. As of now, the only exception is Les Liaisons Dangereuses in 2008. However, the fact that she and Hecht are apparently equal leads in Summer, 1976 might lead to a vote-split with nominators. That just leaves Zoë Wanamaker in Pictures From Home. She's been nominated for all four of her previous Broadway outings and a bid here would continue that impressive track record. Although given that she's the least buzzy of everyone in this category coupled with her play being very much under the radar throughout its run makes me doubtful.
Best Performance By a Featured Actor in a Play:
Chris Herbie Holland-Fat Ham
Samuel L. Jackson-The Piano Lesson
David Krumholtz-Leopoldstadt
Arian Moayed-A Doll’s House
Brandon Uranowtiz-Leopoldstadt
Who Could Sneak In?: Jordan E. Cooper, who wrote Ain't No Mo', also had a scene stealing role in that play. André De Shields is a beloved figure of the Broadway community with a prominent role in the most recent revival of Death of a Salesman. Although there is the question of if he made enough of an impact in that production. There's other main stem vets in The Piano Lesson who could sneak in here such as Ray Fisher and Michael Potts. The former in particular is in a role that earned Rocky Carroll a nomination for the original production. Not to mention that Gregg Mozgala and David Zayas both had prominent roles and acclaim for their work in Cost of Living from back in the fall.
Best Performance By a Featured Actress in a Play:
Danielle Brooks-The Piano Lesson
Faye Castelow-Leopoldstadt
Sharon D. Clarke-Death of a Salesman
Crystal Lucas-Perry-Ain't No Mo'
Miriam Silverman-The Sign in Sidney Brustein's Window
Who Could Sneak In?: Many found D'Arcy Carden's comedic performance in The Thanksgiving Play to be such a standout. Although it's possible she could split her support with her co-star, Katie Finneran. The latter of whom has won twice before for her memorable comedic turns in Noises Off (2002) and Promises, Promises (2010). Depending on how Fat Ham performs with the nominating committee, Nikki Crawford could show up here with a coattail bid. For a while, I had Katy Sullivan getting in for Cost of Living. Although she too could also split her support with her co-star, Kara Young. The latter of whom just came on the scene with her nomination for Clyde's last year.
Best Direction of a Play:
Saheem Ali-Fat Ham
LaTanya Richardson Jackson-The Piano Lesson
Jamie Lloyd-A Doll’s House
Patrick Marber-Leopoldstadt
Max Webster-Life of Pi
Who Could Sneak In?: Michael Arden could be dark horse for A Christmas Carol. Despite that primarily being a one-man show, he apparently provided some impressive stagecraft throughout. The same could probably be said for Justin Martin with Prima Facie. He especially had a difficult task of making sure Jodie Comer keeps up with the pace of the material. Miranda Cromwell won the Olivier (with Marianne Elliott) for her revival of Death of a Salesman. She had this amazing concept to have Arthur Miller's classic characters, usually played by white actors, portrayed by black actors. If Topdog/Underdog does very well in nominations, expect Kenny Leon to show up here.
Nominations for this year’s Tony Awards will be announced by last year’s winner for MJ, Myles Frost, and current Funny Girl star, Lea Michele. A selection of categories will be revealed on CBS Mornings at 8:30am with everything else on the Tonys’ YouTube channel at 9:00am.