As we're now about one day away from the announcement of this year's Tony Award nominations, I thought now would be a good time to share what my predictions are. On this page, I’ll be listing my predicted nominees for each of the play categories as well as what/who I think could sneak in.
Best Play:
Hangmen
The Lehman Trilogy
The Minutes
Pass Over
Skeleton Crew
What Could Sneak In?: I think the only other contender that could potentially get nominated is Clyde's. That play was very well liked when it was presented by Second Stage this past winter. Lynn Nottage had quite a prolific season with that as well as writing the book for MJ the Musical. I do think Clyde’s is going to show up in at least one acting category. While Pass Over does appear to be the most vulnerable of my predicted lineup to get in due to its run taking place way early in the season, it still got a lot of attention for quite a few reasons. Not only was it critically acclaimed for its subject matter, but it was also the very first Tony eligible production of the season to have opened on Broadway following the 1+ year long shutdown of performances due to COVID-19. So I’m going out on a limb by predicting it to get in for Best Play.
Best Revival of a Play:
for colored girls who have considered suicide/when the rainbow is enuf
How I Learned to Drive
The Skin of Our Teeth
Take Me Out
Trouble in Mind
What Could Sneak In?: The only other contender that could potentially get nominated is Lackawanna Blues. The Broadway premiere of Ruben Santiago-Hudson’s one-man show received tons of acclaim when it played at Manhattan Theatre Club back in the fall. I think that is definitely a dark horse. Maybe American Buffalo could sneak in, but the buzz for that production has mainly been mixed-to-positive. Plus, it could be hurt by some recent controversial comments made by its playwright, David Mamet. As for which of my predicted nominees that could potentially miss, a number of people on Gold Derby aren’t predicting The Skin of Our Teeth to get in. While Lincoln Center Theater’s revival of Thornton Wilder’s classic comedy hasn’t been universally loved, even some of the less enthused critics still admired the production for its ambition and boldness. Given how for colored girls recently announced that it will be ending its limited run earlier than previously scheduled on May 22nd, I do wonder if it might underperform in nominations with voters perceiving it as a failure despite all the acclaim it has received.
Best Performance By a Leading Actor in a Play:
Simon Russell Beale-The Lehman Trilogy
Adam Godley-The Lehman Trilogy
Adrien Lester-The Lehman Trilogy
David Morse-How I Learned to Drive
Ruben Santiago-Hudson-Lackawanna Blues
Who Could Sneak In?: I think the one contender who is the best chance of doing so is David Threlfall in Hangmen. If that play does well in nominations, he could definitely pop up here. His performance even wowed critics who weren’t as fond of the show itself. However, I’m going out on a limb by predicting Ruben Santiago-Hudson for Lackawanna Blues. He directed and performed his own one-man play by portraying hundreds of characters himself. Not to mention that he also managed to go on while recovering from a back injury. It also helps that Ruben directed Skeleton Crew on Broadway for Manhattan Theatre Club following his run in Lackawanna Blues.
Best Performance By a Leading Actress in a Play:
Gabby Beans-The Skin of Our Teeth
Emily Davis-Is This a Room
LaChanze-Trouble in Mind
Deidre O'Connell-Dana H.
Mary-Louise Parker-How I Learned to Drive
Who Could Sneak In?: There are several possibilities I can think of from shows critics weren’t all that enthusiastic about. Debra Messing receiving glowing notices for her performance in Birthday Candles. Ruth Negga could be the lone representation for Macbeth similar to how previous highly divisive revivals directed by Sam Gold did in nominations. Examples being Sally Field for The Glass Menagerie in 2017 and Ruth Wilson for King Lear in 2019. Then, there’s Sarah Jessica Parker, who’s grand return to Broadway for the first time in years in Plaza Suite has been welcomed with open arms. However, I’m going out on a limb by predicting Emily Davis to sneak in for Is This a Room. That play may have already came and went back in the fall, but her performance as a NSA employee interrogated by the FBI dazzled critics and audiences alike. Whether you’re predicting her to get in or not, I still think she could be one to watch out for.
Best Performance By a Featured Actor in a Play:
Alfie Allen-Hangmen
Chuck Cooper-Trouble in Mind
Brandon J. Dirden-Skeleton Crew
Jesse Tyler Ferguson-Take Me Out
Austin Pendleton-The Minutes
Who Could Sneak In?: Given the ensemble nature of Take Me Out, I have a hard time seeing how many of the men from the show are going to factor into this category. When performances began back in March, a lot of people were saying that Michael Oberholtzer was the standout. So I was predicting him to get nominated for a while. However, Jesse Tyler Ferguson has received strong buzz for his performance and also has one of the most memorable roles in the play. It won Denis O’Hare a Tony for the original production back in 2003. I have Ferguson getting in, although it’s possible that he and Oberholtzer could both get nominated. I’m predicting Brandon J. Dirden (who’s also in Take Me Out) to show up here for Skeleton Crew. His role in the latter is more substantial, so that’s why I think he has a better shot at a bid for that as opposed to the former. Plus, we’ve seen in the past that if you’re on Broadway in two major roles at different points in the same season, you’re likely going to end up receiving at least one Tony nomination.
Best Performance By a Featured Actress in a Play:
Uzo Aduba-Clyde's
Johanna Day-How I Learned to Drive
Jessica Frances Dukes-Trouble in Mind
Kenita R. Miller-for colored girls who have considered suicide/when the rainbow if enuf
Phylicia Rashad-Skeleton Crew
Who Could Sneak In?: There are quite a few possibilities. If nominators really love Hangmen, Tracie Bennett could show up here as a surprise coattail nomination for her work as the funny and sympathetic wife of David Threlfall's character. The entire cast of POTUS is eligible in the featured acting categories, although many have cited Rachel Dratch as the standout. Some have singled out Amber Gray's performance as one of the better things about the Daniel Craid-led revival of Macbeth. Some good will from Gray's previous nomination for Hadestown in 2019 could also help. So who from my predicted lineup could be vulnerable? If this was back in the fall, I would've said Jessica Frances Dukes has a good shot of getting in for Trouble in Mind. While I am still predicting her to do so, I am wondering how many of the performances from that production are going to be remembered at this point. While Phylicia Rashad is looking pretty good to get in here for her performance in Skeleton Crew, there is the question of if enough nominators are going to overlook her controversial comments supporting Bill Cosby's release from prison last year.
Best Direction of a Play:
Lileana Blain-Cruz-The Skin of Our Teeth
Mark Brokaw-How I Learned to Drive
Matthew Dunster-Hangmen
Scott Ellis-Take Me Out
Sam Mendes-The Lehman Trilogy
Who Could Sneak In?: Back in the fall, it looked like Charles Randolph Wright had a great shot of getting nominated here for the Broadway debut of Alice Childress' 1955 play, Trouble in Mind. While I think he could still get in, several other productions with lauded directing had since opened, so it's not looking likely for him at this point. The same thing can be said for Ruben Santiago-Hudson, who's staging of Skeleton Crew from this past winter was well regarded. Camille A. Brown is also a possibility for her Broadway directorial debut with the revival of for colored girls who have considered suicide when the rainbow is enuf. The play itself does perfectly fit her strengths as it seamlessly incorporates words and movement. Meanwhile, the director from my predicted lineup who I think is vulnerable is Mark Brokaw. Despite all the acclaim the Broadway premiere of Paula Vogel's How I Learned to Drive received, even some of the effusive reviews still had problems with a handful of his directorial choices. Plus, the production could just be seen as more of an acting showcase. However, with How I Learned to Drive looking to be very competitive for the win in Best Revival of a Play, I'm sticking with Brokaw for a nomination here. He could be helped by the fact that he returned to the material about 25 years after he originally staged it Off-Broadway with some of the same actors.
You can stream the nominations announcement on the Tony Awards' YouTube channel this tomorrow morning at 9:00.
Best Play:
Hangmen
The Lehman Trilogy
The Minutes
Pass Over
Skeleton Crew
What Could Sneak In?: I think the only other contender that could potentially get nominated is Clyde's. That play was very well liked when it was presented by Second Stage this past winter. Lynn Nottage had quite a prolific season with that as well as writing the book for MJ the Musical. I do think Clyde’s is going to show up in at least one acting category. While Pass Over does appear to be the most vulnerable of my predicted lineup to get in due to its run taking place way early in the season, it still got a lot of attention for quite a few reasons. Not only was it critically acclaimed for its subject matter, but it was also the very first Tony eligible production of the season to have opened on Broadway following the 1+ year long shutdown of performances due to COVID-19. So I’m going out on a limb by predicting it to get in for Best Play.
Best Revival of a Play:
for colored girls who have considered suicide/when the rainbow is enuf
How I Learned to Drive
The Skin of Our Teeth
Take Me Out
Trouble in Mind
What Could Sneak In?: The only other contender that could potentially get nominated is Lackawanna Blues. The Broadway premiere of Ruben Santiago-Hudson’s one-man show received tons of acclaim when it played at Manhattan Theatre Club back in the fall. I think that is definitely a dark horse. Maybe American Buffalo could sneak in, but the buzz for that production has mainly been mixed-to-positive. Plus, it could be hurt by some recent controversial comments made by its playwright, David Mamet. As for which of my predicted nominees that could potentially miss, a number of people on Gold Derby aren’t predicting The Skin of Our Teeth to get in. While Lincoln Center Theater’s revival of Thornton Wilder’s classic comedy hasn’t been universally loved, even some of the less enthused critics still admired the production for its ambition and boldness. Given how for colored girls recently announced that it will be ending its limited run earlier than previously scheduled on May 22nd, I do wonder if it might underperform in nominations with voters perceiving it as a failure despite all the acclaim it has received.
Best Performance By a Leading Actor in a Play:
Simon Russell Beale-The Lehman Trilogy
Adam Godley-The Lehman Trilogy
Adrien Lester-The Lehman Trilogy
David Morse-How I Learned to Drive
Ruben Santiago-Hudson-Lackawanna Blues
Who Could Sneak In?: I think the one contender who is the best chance of doing so is David Threlfall in Hangmen. If that play does well in nominations, he could definitely pop up here. His performance even wowed critics who weren’t as fond of the show itself. However, I’m going out on a limb by predicting Ruben Santiago-Hudson for Lackawanna Blues. He directed and performed his own one-man play by portraying hundreds of characters himself. Not to mention that he also managed to go on while recovering from a back injury. It also helps that Ruben directed Skeleton Crew on Broadway for Manhattan Theatre Club following his run in Lackawanna Blues.
Best Performance By a Leading Actress in a Play:
Gabby Beans-The Skin of Our Teeth
Emily Davis-Is This a Room
LaChanze-Trouble in Mind
Deidre O'Connell-Dana H.
Mary-Louise Parker-How I Learned to Drive
Who Could Sneak In?: There are several possibilities I can think of from shows critics weren’t all that enthusiastic about. Debra Messing receiving glowing notices for her performance in Birthday Candles. Ruth Negga could be the lone representation for Macbeth similar to how previous highly divisive revivals directed by Sam Gold did in nominations. Examples being Sally Field for The Glass Menagerie in 2017 and Ruth Wilson for King Lear in 2019. Then, there’s Sarah Jessica Parker, who’s grand return to Broadway for the first time in years in Plaza Suite has been welcomed with open arms. However, I’m going out on a limb by predicting Emily Davis to sneak in for Is This a Room. That play may have already came and went back in the fall, but her performance as a NSA employee interrogated by the FBI dazzled critics and audiences alike. Whether you’re predicting her to get in or not, I still think she could be one to watch out for.
Best Performance By a Featured Actor in a Play:
Alfie Allen-Hangmen
Chuck Cooper-Trouble in Mind
Brandon J. Dirden-Skeleton Crew
Jesse Tyler Ferguson-Take Me Out
Austin Pendleton-The Minutes
Who Could Sneak In?: Given the ensemble nature of Take Me Out, I have a hard time seeing how many of the men from the show are going to factor into this category. When performances began back in March, a lot of people were saying that Michael Oberholtzer was the standout. So I was predicting him to get nominated for a while. However, Jesse Tyler Ferguson has received strong buzz for his performance and also has one of the most memorable roles in the play. It won Denis O’Hare a Tony for the original production back in 2003. I have Ferguson getting in, although it’s possible that he and Oberholtzer could both get nominated. I’m predicting Brandon J. Dirden (who’s also in Take Me Out) to show up here for Skeleton Crew. His role in the latter is more substantial, so that’s why I think he has a better shot at a bid for that as opposed to the former. Plus, we’ve seen in the past that if you’re on Broadway in two major roles at different points in the same season, you’re likely going to end up receiving at least one Tony nomination.
Best Performance By a Featured Actress in a Play:
Uzo Aduba-Clyde's
Johanna Day-How I Learned to Drive
Jessica Frances Dukes-Trouble in Mind
Kenita R. Miller-for colored girls who have considered suicide/when the rainbow if enuf
Phylicia Rashad-Skeleton Crew
Who Could Sneak In?: There are quite a few possibilities. If nominators really love Hangmen, Tracie Bennett could show up here as a surprise coattail nomination for her work as the funny and sympathetic wife of David Threlfall's character. The entire cast of POTUS is eligible in the featured acting categories, although many have cited Rachel Dratch as the standout. Some have singled out Amber Gray's performance as one of the better things about the Daniel Craid-led revival of Macbeth. Some good will from Gray's previous nomination for Hadestown in 2019 could also help. So who from my predicted lineup could be vulnerable? If this was back in the fall, I would've said Jessica Frances Dukes has a good shot of getting in for Trouble in Mind. While I am still predicting her to do so, I am wondering how many of the performances from that production are going to be remembered at this point. While Phylicia Rashad is looking pretty good to get in here for her performance in Skeleton Crew, there is the question of if enough nominators are going to overlook her controversial comments supporting Bill Cosby's release from prison last year.
Best Direction of a Play:
Lileana Blain-Cruz-The Skin of Our Teeth
Mark Brokaw-How I Learned to Drive
Matthew Dunster-Hangmen
Scott Ellis-Take Me Out
Sam Mendes-The Lehman Trilogy
Who Could Sneak In?: Back in the fall, it looked like Charles Randolph Wright had a great shot of getting nominated here for the Broadway debut of Alice Childress' 1955 play, Trouble in Mind. While I think he could still get in, several other productions with lauded directing had since opened, so it's not looking likely for him at this point. The same thing can be said for Ruben Santiago-Hudson, who's staging of Skeleton Crew from this past winter was well regarded. Camille A. Brown is also a possibility for her Broadway directorial debut with the revival of for colored girls who have considered suicide when the rainbow is enuf. The play itself does perfectly fit her strengths as it seamlessly incorporates words and movement. Meanwhile, the director from my predicted lineup who I think is vulnerable is Mark Brokaw. Despite all the acclaim the Broadway premiere of Paula Vogel's How I Learned to Drive received, even some of the effusive reviews still had problems with a handful of his directorial choices. Plus, the production could just be seen as more of an acting showcase. However, with How I Learned to Drive looking to be very competitive for the win in Best Revival of a Play, I'm sticking with Brokaw for a nomination here. He could be helped by the fact that he returned to the material about 25 years after he originally staged it Off-Broadway with some of the same actors.
You can stream the nominations announcement on the Tony Awards' YouTube channel this tomorrow morning at 9:00.