The 78th Golden Globe Awards are upon us. They’ll be taking place on Sunday, February 28th at 8pm on NBC. I’m here to give you my predictions for the winners in each of the following film categories: From writing to directing to acting to motion picture. My goal with this is to help anyone out there who’s reading this do the best they can with their predictions. Though please keep two very important factors in mind: The nominees and winners of the Golden Globes are voted on by about 87 members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. Also, while statistics don’t always stay completely intact at any awards show, they’re still some pretty good rules of thumb to take into account when making your predictions. So without further ado, let’s get started.

Best Screenplay:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7-Aaron Sorkin
2. Promising Young Woman-Emerald Fennell
3. The Father-Florian Zeller & Christopher Hampton
4. Nomadland-Chloé Zhao
5. Mank-Jack Fincher

What is worth noting about this slate of contenders is that they’re all the five exact same films that are in contention for Best Motion Picture-Drama. Not to mention that with the exception of Mank, all of the screenplays were written by their directors. As for what I think is going to win? Aaron Sorkin has so far won about two Golden Globes out of seven prior nominations. First in 2010 for The Social Network, then very surprisingly in 2015 for Steve Jobs. He is now back in contention this year with The Trial of the Chicago 7, a movie he also just so happened to have directed as well. Plus, Sorkin is the biggest celebrity out of all the nominees in this category, so that should push him over the edge. The only other contender I can possibly see winning is Emerald Fennell given that her feature directorial debut, Promising Young Woman, overperformed in nominations. It not only got in here, but also Best Motion Picture-Drama as well as an additional bid for her in Best Director (making her one of three women recognized in that category this year).

Best Director:

1. David Fincher-Mank
2. Chloé Zhao-Nomadland
3. Aaron Sorkin-The Trial of the Chicago 7
4. Emerald Fennell-Promising Young Woman
5. Regina King-One Night in Miami

As I just mentioned, there are three women among the Best Director nominees this year. Not only that, but two of them (Regina King and Chloé Zhao) also happen to be people of color. That alone is such a remarkable achievement. As for my predictions, experts may be settling on Zhao due to Nomadland's sweep throughout a lot of the critics awards that have already taken place, but keep in mind that none of those groups overlap with the Hollywood Foreign Press in any way, shape, or form. Although it is worth noting that through the previous 77 years of Golden Globes history, only one woman has ever managed to win the Best Director award, which was Barbra Striesand for Yentl back in 1983. Even as Kathryn Bigelow swept throughout the 2009 season for The Hurt Locker all the way to become the first (and to date, only) female filmmaker to have triumphed at the Oscars, she still lost the Globe to her ex-husband, James Cameron for Avatar. Meanwhile, David Fincher’s work on Mank appears to have the showiest directing out of all the nominees. Everything about that film from the way it looks to the way it sounds is so authentic to what movies were like back in the day, feeling as if it was made in the 1940s. After all, having the showiest directing appeared to have helped Sam Mendes win this award last year for 1917, a World War I epic designed to look like it was all done in one long continuous shot. So for all the reasons I’ve mentioned, I’m predicting David Fincher to win.

Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture:

1. Glenn Close-Hillbilly Elegy
2. Olivia Colman-The Father
3. Amanda Seyfried-Mank
4. Jodie Foster-The Mauritanian
5. Helena Zengel-News of the World

This is a category that could go in like three different directions. For one, there’s Amanda Seyfried, who many experts are predicting to prevail here for her standout performance as glamorous movie star Marion Davies in Mank. She may have been overlooked for a SAG nomination, but a win at the Globes could help keep her Oscars chances alive moving forward. After all, that was part of what helped Regina King in this category back in 2018 when she won both the Globe and Critics’ Choice for If Beale Street Could Talk, and still managed to win the Oscar despite notable absences from SAG and BAFTA. Then again, Olivia Colman has had three prior nominations from the Hollywood Foreign Press, and so far managed to win every single one of them. First, in 2016 for her supporting role in the television miniseries, The Night Manager; Then in 2018 for her leading role in the movie, The Favourite; and last year for her starring role on the third season of The Crown. She’s back in contention twice this year. Not only for her supporting role in The Father, but also for her second (and final) season as Queen Elizabeth II on The Crown. Either Colman could win both awards, lose both awards, or win one of the two. I may be only predicting the film categories here, but on the TV side, it is worth noting that Olivia Colman is up against Emma Corrin for her breakout performance as Princess Diana on the fourth season of The Crown. The latter actress could end up winning there instead or the two could end up splitting their support. So if Colman doesn’t win on the TV side, I could see HFPA members throwing their support for her over here. However, I’m actually predicting Glenn Close to win. Despite all the bad critical reviews for Hillbilly Elegy, her big, transformative performance has consistently been singled out as the best thing about that movie. While Jennifer Lopez wasn’t able to overcome being the lone representation in this category last year for Hustlers, it does help that Glenn Close is a far more respected actress than JLO ever will be. After all, Glenn did manage to pull a surprise win for Best Drama Actress two years ago for The Wife (despite being the lone representation for that film) over the heavily favored Lady Gaga for A Star is Born.

Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture:

1. Sacha Baron Cohen-The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Daniel Kaluuya-Judas and the Black Messiah
3. Leslie Odom, Jr.-One Night in Miami
4. Jared Leto-The Little Things
5. Bill Murray-On the Rocks

Two of the nominees in this category happen to have two major factors working in both of their favors. Leslie Odom, Jr. has the visibility of appearing in prominent roles in two of the contenders for Best Motion Picture-Comedy/Musical (Hamilton and Music) in addition to his standout performance as Sam Cooke in One Night in Miami. Not to mention that he is also nominated in the category of Best Original Song for ‘Speak Now’, which he co-wrote with Sam Ashworth for the same movie he happens to be nominated for as an actor. Meanwhile, Sacha Baron Cohen has the visibility of reprising one of his most famous characters, Borat, in the Golden Globe nominated sequel to the 2006 hit comedy (where he’s also recognized in the category of Best Actor in a Comedy/Musical) in addition to his nominated performance as Abbie Hoffman in The Trial of the Chicago 7. Knowing how the Hollywood Foreign Press usually likes to spread the wealth among the winners, I think Leslie will be taken care of in Best Original Song while Sacha will be taken care of here. He’s the only acting nominee from such an enormous ensemble piece as The Trial of Chicago 7, and it helps that he’s not up against a co-star in this category who potentially could’ve pulled votes away from him. While Sacha Baron Cohen may also have a shot of winning Best Comedy/Musical Actor for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, I think a win for him here would be even better because we get to see this usually over the top comedian in a rare dramatic role.

​Best Actress in a Motion Picture-Comedy/Musical:

1. Michelle Pfeiffer-French Exit
2. Maria Bakalova-Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
3. Rosamund Pike-I Care a Lot
4. Anya Taylor-Joy-Emma.
5. Kate Hudson-Music

Many experts are predicting Maria Bakalova to win here for her breakout performance in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm. While I myself haven’t seen that (nor the first Borat), I can understand why because those who have seen the sequel thought she was the standout. However, there is one very important factor that I think people should keep in mind. A couple times before in a Comedy/Musical acting race this past decade, experts were thinking that a performer in a hit comedy would win the Globe, but ended up losing to someone with a more Oscar friendly role. In 2015, many of us were predicting Amy Schumer to win this award for her breakout film role in Trainwreck, but she lost to Jennifer Lawrence for Joy, a biographical film about Joy Mangano. In 2016, people were thinking Ryan Reynolds could win Best Actor in a Comedy/Musical for his blockbuster, Deadpool, but he lost to Ryan Gosling for the Oscar contender, La La Land. Therefore, I’m predicting Michelle Pfeiffer to win here. She’s had 7 prior Golden Globe nominations, and previously won on the Drama side back in 1989 for The Fabulous Baker Boys. So the Hollywood Foreign Press has shown quite a bit of respect for her over the years, and she does have a baity part in French Exit as she plays a widow from Manhattan who moves to Paris with her son and cat with the little money they have left.

Best Actor in a Motion Picture-Comedy/Musical:

1. Lin-Manuel Miranda-Hamilton
2. Andy Samberg-Palm Springs
3. Sacha Baron Cohen-Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
4. James Corden-The Prom
5. Dev Patel-The Personal History of David Copperfield

Unlike the previous category we just talked about (as well as the next one coming up), there isn’t a single contender here who could ideally go on to get an Oscar nomination thanks to a Golden Globe win. Especially the proshot taping of Hamilton on Disney+ given that it was ruled ineligible by the motion picture academy, but it will be eligible at the Primetime Emmy Awards later this year. Although the former factor I think could actually help Lin-Manuel Miranda in this category. For one, HFPA members who are probably trying to predict the Oscars with their votes won’t have to worry about that if they vote for Miranda because then it won’t even matter that much moving forward. Plus, it helps that the co-lead of his show, Leslie Odom, Jr., isn’t in contention here. When the two of them dueled for the Best Lead Actor in a Musical race at the 2016 Tony Awards, Odom ended up beating Miranda for the win. With Leslie out of the way, Lin-Manuel Miranda now doesn’t have to worry about getting overshadowed by a co-star. While a majority of experts are predicting Sacha Baron Cohen to win for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, he already won for starring as the title character 14 years ago, and there has not been a single actor in the history of the Golden Globes who has ever won for both an original film and its sequel. If voters really want to give Sacha something, they have other places to do so, including Best Supporting Actor for The Trial of the Chicago 7 (where I do have him winning). Then again, Denton Davidson did write a very interesting piece for Gold Derby about why he thinks everyone should look out for Andy Samberg to pull an upset. One of the things he mentions is how Palm Springs really elevates Samberg as an actor, even earning himself the best reviews of his career in that movie, which also happened to have been one of the most successful comedies of 2020.

Best Motion Picture-Comedy/Musical:

1. Hamilton
2. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
3. Palm Springs
4. The Prom
5. Music

What’s interesting to note here is that three of the nominees in this category made it in the top ten SVOD movie debuts of 2020 in their 7-day launch according to Screen Engine’s count, which is really cool. They were Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (which placed at #4), Hamilton (which placed at #3), and The Prom (which placed at #7). As for what I think is going to win, Hamilton may be a professional taping of a stage production and not an actual movie, but I think that might actually help it stand out from the crowd as the apple in a bag of oranges (or vice versa). What was originally going to be given a nationwide theatrical release later this year instead got released on Disney+ last summer to keep millions of people all over the world occupied during this global pandemic. Especially as live performances of concerts and stage productions got put on hold until further notice. When Hamilton opened on Broadway back in 2015, it quickly became a pop culture phenomenon. With the proshot taping, more people have been able to see the musical than ever before. As I’ve already mentioned in the previous category, there isn’t a single contender here that could ideally go on to get an Oscar nomination thanks to a Golden Globe win. With Hamilton only being eligible for the Emmys, HFPA members won’t have to worry about the former factor if they vote for it. While a lot of experts are predicting Borat Subsequent Moviefilm to win, I think the fact that it’s a sequel might actually hurt its chances. In a world where about 50% of the movies that come out nowadays are sequels, remakes, and reboots, people within the industry are more interested in championing original ideas as opposed to recycled ones no matter what. After all, in last year’s Golden Globes race for Best Animated Feature, the nominees consisted of Frozen II, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, the photo-realistic remake of The Lion King, and Toy Story 4. Yet they all ended up losing to Missing Link, which likely benefited from the fact that it was the only nominee that was not a sequel nor a remake that had already been previously awarded by the Hollywood Foreign Press.

Best Actress in a Motion Picture-Drama:

1. Carey Mulligan-Promising Young Woman
2. Viola Davis-Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
3. Frances McDormand-Nomadland
4. Vanessa Kirby-Pieces of a Woman
5. Andra Day-The United States vs. Billie Holliday

First, let me say that the last time I correctly predicted the winner in this category was way back in 2015 when Brie Larson won for Room. Since the, I predicted Natalie Portman to win for Jackie in 2016 instead of Isabelle Huppert for Elle; I predicted Sally Hawkins to win for The Shape of Water in 2017 instead of Frances McDormand for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri; I predicted Lady Gaga to win for A Star is Born in 2018 instead of Glenn Close for The Wife; and I predicted Scarlett Johansson to win for Marriage Story last year instead of Renée Zellweger for Judy. So how am I going to do in this category this year? We shall see. Though onto my predictions, before nominations were announced, most experts were predicting Viola Davis to win here for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. However, the film ended up underperforming with only recognition for her as well as Best Actor in a Drama for Chadwick Boseman. Meanwhile, Promising Young Woman exceeded expectations by not only getting Carey Mulligan nominated, but also bids for Best Motion Picture-Drama as well as Best Director and Best Screenplay. If you ask me, I think that movie’s overall performance gives Mulligan a strong path towards victory. With Viola Davis, keep in mind that of her five previous Golden Globe nominations, she only managed to win once before back in 2016 for Fences (in Best Supporting Actress). Though that year, the Hollywood Foreign Press was helping to put her on the trajectory of winning her very first Oscar. Whereas her nomination for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom may not have the same urgency. With Carey Mulligan, since her breakout role in An Education back in 2009, she has given many acclaimed performances that went unnoticed by major awards groups in many different films. Among them were 2010’s Never Let Me Go, 2011’s Drive and Shame, 2013’s Inside Llewyn Davis, 2017’s Mudbound, and 2018’s Wildlife. A few of them even got Golden Globe nominations in other categories, but not for Mulligan. With Promising Young Woman, she’s not only back in the awards conversation in a major way, but also with a performance that may be one of, if not her very best. While Frances McDormand has already done very well with critics prizes for her performance in Nomadland, keep in mind that she only finally just won her first Golden Globe three years ago for Three Billboards. So I’m not sure if HFPA members have as much urgency to give her a second, especially so soon. It’s also worth noting that Frances’ work in Nomadland might be seen as too subtle compared to the showier work from Viola Davis and Carey Mulligan.

Best Actor in a Motion Picture-Drama:

1. Anthony Hopkins-The Father
2. Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
3. Riz Ahmed-Sound of Metal
4. Gary Oldman-Mank
5. Tahar Rahim-The Mauritanian

Of the two acting nominations Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom received, I think it’s more likely to win here for Boseman due to it being his final on-screen performance before dying of colon cancer back in August of last year. Although I do agree with a majority of people who think even if he hadn’t died, he’d still be in this conversation because his work in Ma Rainey is pretty great. However, I’m actually predicting Anthony Hopkins to win. This is an acting legend who’s received 7 prior Golden Globe nominations over the years since 1978, yet has never won. He may have received the Cecil B. DeMille Award back in 2006, but it was not a competitive Globe. Even when he won the Oscar for his iconic role as Hannibal Lecter in The Silence of the Lambs back in 1991, he still lost this award to Nick Nolte for The Prince of Tides. While this is clearly the last chance HFPA members have to award Chadwick Boseman, who knows many more opportunities are there going to be for Anthony Hopkins to win a competitive Golden Globe. Especially for a performance that many people think is right up there as among his very best work. I also think there are two more important factors Hopkins has in his favor. The first being that his film, The Father, is among the five nominees for Best Motion Picture-Drama while Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom is not. The second being that compared to Chadwick Boseman, Anthony Hopkins has the more awards friendly role and performance as he plays an aging man dealing with his progressing memory loss. The Globes have previously awarded actresses for taking on similar roles like Julie Christie in 2007 for Away from Her and Julianne Moore in 2014 for Still Alice, so don’t be surprised if Hopkins ends up winning here.

Best Motion Picture-Drama:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7
2. Nomadland
3. Mank​
4. The Father
5. Promising Young Woman

First, let me say that the last time I correctly predicted the winner in this category was way back in 2016 when Moonlight won. Since then, I predicted The Shape of Water to win in 2017 instead of Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri; I predicted A Star is Born to win in 2018 instead of Bohemian Rhapsody; and I predicted The Irishman to win last year instead of 1917. So how am I going to do in this category this year? We shall see. As for my predictions, Nomadland has proven to be the sweeper throughout a lot of the critics awards that have already taken place. Sometimes, the Globes have gone for that kind of film in this category such as The Social Network in 2010 and Boyhood in 2014, even if it didn’t mean anything for either one of those movies going forward in the Oscar race. Speaking of Boyhood, I can see Nomadland following a similar trajectory where it’s gotten so much acclaim from critics, but might be seen as overhyped by casual audiences. It would not surprise me if the latter ends up being one of those movies where people feel "That was it? Nothing happened!" by the end. Despite me predicting David Fincher to win Best Director for Mank, I’m not sure if that film could win this category due to detractors who felt the subject matter was too niche for their taste as well as the fact that it left a lot of them feeling cold. So I’m predicting what is probably the biggest crowd pleaser out of all the nominees, The Trial of the Chicago 7, to win. When it premiered on Netflix back in October of last year, it made it into the top 20 SVOD movie debuts of 2020 in their 7-day launch according to Screen Engine’s count, finishing at number 11. Plus, unlike Nomadland, you can pretty much sit anyone down to watch The Trial of the Chicago 7, and they would definitely feel entertained by it. So the final haul I’m predicting for the latter movie in terms of wins is 3 awards for Best Motion Picture-Drama, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Screenplay.

Be sure to watch the 78th Golden Globe Awards on NBC this Sunday night at 8:00! Here is a quick rundown of my predictions in the remaining four categories…

Best Animated Feature Film:

1. Soul
2. Wolfwalkers
3. Over the Moon
4. Onward
5. The Croods: A New Age

Best Foreign Language Film:

1. Minari
2. Another Round
3. The Life Ahead
4. La Llorona
5. Two of Us

Best Original Score:

1. Soul
2. Mank
3. News of the World
4. Tenet
5. The Midnight Sky

​
Best Original Song:

1. ‘Speak Now’ from One Night in Miami
2. ‘Fight for You’ from Judas and the Black Messiah
3. ‘Io Si (Seen)’ from The Life Ahead
4. ‘Hear My Voice’ from The Trial of the Chicago 7
5. ‘Tigress and Tweed’ from The United States vs. Billie Holliday