2020 Golden Globe Predictions

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The 77th Golden Globe Awards are tomorrow night! With so little time left, I’ll be giving you my predictions for the film categories. Please keep in mind that the nominees and winners are voted on by about 93 members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. So let’s get on with the predictions, shall we?

Best Motion Picture-Drama:
  1. The Irishman
  2. Joker
  3. Marriage Story
  4. 1917
  5. The Two Popes
I would love to see Marriage Story win because it was actually my favorite movie of 2019. In fact, I could see that film potentially winning three acting awards as part of a haul. Though I'm actually predicting The Irishman to win. There appears to be a lot of passion for Martin Scorsese’s latest picture, and it’s currently one of three films outfront to win the Oscar. However, I could see Joker just pulling off an upset because despite the polarizing reception the film itself received, it’s still the biggest moneymaker out of all the nominees. Something that the Hollywood Foreign Press usually loves to award, which might’ve been what helped Bohemian Rhapsody last year.

Best Actor in a Motion Picture-Drama:
  1. Joaquin Phoenix-Joker
  2. Adam Driver-Marriage Story
  3. Jonathan Pryce-The Two Popes
  4. Antonio Banderas-Pain and Glory
  5. Christian Bale-Ford v Ferrari
I'm very happy to see Adam Driver and Joaquin Phoenix going head-to-head for Best Actor this season because they both gave my top two favorite male performances of the year. As for who I think is going to win, I’m leaning more towards Phoenix. He gives the bigger performance in one of the biggest hits of 2019, and he’s earned 5 previous nominations from the Globes, including a win in 2005 for Walk the Line. Not to mention that he just kills it (pun intended) as the iconic Batman villain, even making that role his own following in the shadow of the late Heath Ledger from 2008’s The Dark Knight. Though the idea of Adam Driver winning is definitely not impossible. Not only does he play a much more sympathetic character in Marriage Story, but he also has the visibility factor from this past year with another acclaimed performance in The Report (which has a Golden Globe nomination) and returning to play Kylo Ren in the current box office hit, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker.

Best Actress in a Motion Picture-Drama:
  1. Scarlett Johansson-Marriage Story
  2. Renée Zellweger-Judy
  3. Charlize Theron-Bombshell
  4. Saoirse Ronan-Little Women
  5. Cynthia Erivo-Harriet
When Judy started screening at film festivals back in early September, Renée Zellweger already became the frontrunner for her complete transformation as Hollywood icon Judy Garland. However, I have a feeling that this could end up being one of those scenarios where the presumed frontrunner early on in the season ends up becoming a target. Especially given how there doesn't appear to be any passion for Judy. So therefore, I’m going out on a limb by predicting Scarlett Johansson to prevail. Not only is she the bigger star, but she is also the only contender in this category whose film is up for Best Motion Picture-Drama. Not to mention that this is Scarlett Johansson’s fifth Golden Globe nomination, and she is overdue for a win. It also helps that she has the visibility factor of also appearing in Best Motion Picture-Comedy/Musical nominee, Jojo Rabbit.

Best Motion Picture-Comedy/Musical:
  1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
  2. Jojo Rabbit
  3. Rocketman
  4. Dolemite is My Name
  5. Knives Out
I think it’s almost a lock for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. There appears to be a lot of passion for Quentin Tarantino’s latest film, and it’s currently another one of three films outfront to win the Oscar. It also helps that it is the biggest moneymaker out of all the nominees.

Best Actor in a Motion Picture-Comedy/Musical:
  1. Eddie Murphy-Dolemite is My Name
  2. Taron Egerton-Rocketman
  3. Leonardo DiCaprio-Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
  4. Daniel Craig-Knives Out
  5. Roman Griffin Davis-Jojo Rabbit
First, let me say that this is such a stellar lineup. I think all five of these performances are very deserving of their nominations. As for who I think is going to win, I can see a case made for any of the top 3 I have listed. I’m leaning more towards Eddie Murphy for several reasons. 2019 marked quite a career resurgence for him not only with his performance as real-life comedian Rudy Ray Moore in Dolemite is My Name, but also when he recently returned to his roots on Saturday Night Live as host. Eddie Murphy has really been working the circuit within the past few months, and this has to be the best place HFPA members could award the film. However, we have seen several performances as real-life musicians in biographical films win Golden Globes. Could that bode well for Taron Egerton’s incredible performance as Elton John in Rocketman? Then again, the Globes have shown a lot of love towards Leonardo DiCaprio over the years with 11 prior nominations and 3 wins. He could just prevail here for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and it would not surprise me at all.

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Best Actress in a Motion Picture-Comedy/Musical:
  1. Awkwafina-The Farewell
  2. Ana de Armas-Knives Out
  3. Emma Thompson-Late Night
  4. Beanie Feldstein-Booksmart
  5. Cate Blanchett-Where’d You Go, Bernadette?
Of all the nominees in this category, I’m predicting Awkwafina to win. Not only is she an Asian comedian giving a very dramatic performance in The Farewell, but I also think she is the only one here who could most likely nab an Oscar nomination. Though if the Globes would like to award Knives Out, they could give it to Ana de Armas. She's a breakout star of that film who has an exciting year ahead of her with upcoming performances in the next James Bond film, No Time to Die, and as Marilyn Monroe in a new biographical film titled Blonde.

Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture:
  1. Brad Pitt-Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
  2. Al Pacino-The Irishman
  3. Joe Pesci-The Irishman
  4. Tom Hanks-A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
  5. Anthony Hopkins-The Two Popes
Of the two actors in this category nominated for The Irishman, I’m not sure which is more likely to prevail. I’m leaning more towards Al Pacino given that he gives the bigger performance. Plus, He’s received a lot of love from the Hollywood Foreign Press in the past from having received 17 prior nominations and 4 competitive wins, plus the Cecil B. DeMille Award. However, Joe Pesci has been doing pretty well at the critics awards so far, and he also has the narrative of coming out of retirement to re-team with Martin Scorsese and Robert De Niro. What probably helps Pesci is that the Globes do have an I.O.U. to him because despite going on to win the Oscar for Goodfellas back in 1991, he lost the Golden Globe to Bruce Davison for Longtime Companion. Though I’m actually predicting Brad Pitt to win for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Not only do I think he’ll benefit from potential vote-splitting between Pacino and Pesci, but I also have him winning as part of a potential haul for the film.

Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture:
  1. Laura Dern-Marriage Story
  2. Margot Robbie-Bombshell
  3. Jennifer Lopez-Hustlers
  4. Annette Bening-The Report
  5. Kathy Bates-Richard Jewell
I know a lot of people are predicting Jennifer Lopez to win this award for her performance in this past summer’s box office hit, Hustlers. On paper, you’d think the Hollywood Foreign Press Association would easily do that in a heartbeat, like how they awarded Sylvester Stallone Best Supporting Actor in 2015 for Creed. However, what may not bode well for Lopez’s chances is the fact that she is the only recognition the film itself received from the Golden Globes. To date, only seven contenders have won this award as their film’s lone nomination, the last of which was Cate Blanchett for I’m Not There in 2007. I’m actually predicting the critics sweeper, Laura Dern, to win. She has the visibility factor of appearing in the second season of HBO’s Big Little Lies from earlier this year as well as having a supporting role in Greta Gerwig’s new film adaptation of Little Women. Both of those projects happened to have been recognized by the HFPA as well in different categories. She is also a previous winner four times before for her work in television, but Marriage Story happens to be her second Golden Globe nomination for her film work following the very first nomination she ever received for 1991’s Rambling Rose. It also helps that Dern happens to be a child of Hollywood as her parents are veteran actors Bruce Dern and Diane Ladd, which led to her becoming Miss Golden Globe in 1982. Let’s also not forget that she is the only Best Film Supporting Actress nominee this year whose film happens to have a Best Picture nomination (in the category of Best Motion Picture-Drama). Though I could also see Margot Robbie winning for Bombshell. Not only is she a previous nominee for starring in I, Tonya two years ago, but she also happens to have the visibility factor of appearing in one of this year’s Best Film Comedy/Musical nominees, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.

Best Director:
  1. Bong Joon-ho-Parasite
  2. Martin Scorsese-The Irishman
  3. Sam Mendes-1917
  4. Quentin Tarantino-Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
  5. Todd Phillips-Joker
We’ve got quite a bit of heavy weights nominated this year. I had Martin Scorsese winning Best Director for a while given how much the Globes have awarded him in the past for 2002’s Gangs of New York, 2006’s The Departed, and 2011’s Hugo. Yet, I moved him down to second place because of how much I'm sensing excitement for Bong Joon-ho and his South Korean movie, Parasite.

Best Screenplay:
  1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood-Quentin Tarantino
  2. Marriage Story-Noah Baumbach
  3. The Two Popes-Anthony McCarten
  4. The Irishman-Steven Zaillian
  5. Parasite-Bong Joon-ho & Jin Won Han
Over the years, Quentin Tarantino has earned 7 previous nominations from the Hollywood Foreign Press as well as two wins for writing 1994’s Pulp Fiction and 2012’s Django Unchained. He’s the biggest celebrity out of all the nominees in this category, so I think that should push him over the edge in this category for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. The only other nominee I could potentially see beating him is Noah Baumbach given that he’s a veteran journeymen independent filmmaker who earned his very first Golden Globe nomination this year for Marriage Story.

The Red Carpet begins at 7:00 tomorrow night on NBC followed by the 77th Golden Globes at 8:00! Here is a quick rundown of my predictions in the remaining four categories…

Best Animated Feature Film:
  1. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
  2. Toy Story 4
  3. Frozen II
  4. Missing Link
  5. The Lion King

Best Foreign Language Film:
  1. Parasite
  2. Pain and Glory
  3. The Farewell
  4. Portrait of a Lady on Fire
  5. Les Misérables

Best Original Score:
  1. 1917
  2. Joker
  3. Marriage Story
  4. Little Women
  5. Motherless Brooklyn

Best Original Song:
  1. ‘(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again’ from Rocketman
  2. ‘Into the Unknown’ from Frozen II
  3. ‘Stand Up’ from Harriet
  4. ‘Spirit’ from The Lion King
  5. ‘Beautiful Ghosts’ from Cats
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