As we're now about three days away from the announcement of this year's Tony Award nominations, I thought now would be a good time to share what my predictions are. On this page, I’ll be discussing my predictions for the play categories. For each category, I’ll be listing the predicted nominees from the combined odds of Gold Derby, followed by my predictions.
Best Play:
The Ferryman
Hillary & Clinton
Network
To Kill a Mockingbird
What the Constitution Means to Me
I’m not sure if Network can really make it into the Best Play lineup. It was more acclaimed for Bryan Cranston’s performance as well as a lot of the design elements, but not so much the play itself. Meanwhile, Hillary & Clinton (which is Lucas Hnath's follow-up play to A Doll's House, Part 2) hasn't appeared to have lived up to everyone's expectations. Gary: A Sequel to Titus Andronicus has also proven to be quite polarizing with critics and audiences.
My Predictions: I'm bumping out Hillary & Clinton and Network for Choir Boy and Ink. While Choir Boy already completed its limited run at Manhattan Theatre Club last month, it was still mostly well-regarded. While Ink hasn't been as well-received in New York as it was in London, I can still see the nominating committee showing some respect towards it.
Best Revival of a Play:
All My Sons
Burn This
King Lear
The Waverly Gallery
The current Broadway revival of King Lear has proven to be very divisive with both critics and audiences. There's also Second Stage Theatre's production of Torch Song from back in the fall. While the show did lose momentum with its premature closing earlier in the year, it was still well-liked.
My Predictions: I'm bumping out King Lear for The Boys in the Band. The Broadway premiere of Mart Crowley's 1968 landmark gay drama not only received a much more favorable response from critics than King Lear, but also True West (which is currently in fifth place of Gold Derby's overall rankings with 15/2 odds). While theatre critics aren’t members of the nominating committee, it’s still important to take a show’s overall reception into account when making your predictions.
Best Performance By a Leading Actor in a Play:
Paddy Considine-The Ferryman
Bryan Cranston-Network
Jeff Daniels-To Kill a Mockingbird
Adam Driver-Burn This
John Lithgow-Hillary & Clinton
If any acting category this year could use a tie in the nominating process to warrant an additional slot, this would have to be the one. There are so many other contenders that would more easily be recognized in any other year. Even Nathan Lane isn't included in everyone's predictions for his performance in Gary: A Sequel to Titus Andronicus. While that does sound like a shocker, we've seen in the past that name recognition alone doesn't get you nominated. Audra McDonald had to find out the hard way when she was snubbed for Shuffle Along three years ago. If Lucas Hedges sneaks in here, that could be a sign of strength for The Waverly Gallery. Jonny Lee Miller has gotten rave reviews for his performance as Larry Lamb in Ink. Can Michael Urie be remembered for his performance in Torch Song? Or could he suffer from the production's commercial failure back in the fall?
My Predictions: I'm bumping out Adam Driver and John Lithgow for Tracy Letts and Jeremy Pope. Given how strong of a contender All My Sons is now appearing to be, I think it would be a safe bet to predict Tracy Letts. Jeremy Pope has the benefit of making his Broadway debut twice this past season. First as the star of Choir Boy, then as a featured performer in the musical Ain't Too Proud. That visibility factor could boost his chances in this category. While critics did sing their praises for Driver's performance in Burn This, it's hard for me to decide who he could potentially bump out in a field of five.
Best Performance By a Leading Actress in a Play:
Annette Bening-All My Sons
Laura Donnelly-The Ferryman
Glenda Jackson-King Lear
Elaine May-The Waverly Gallery
Laurie Metcalf-Hillary & Clinton
My Predictions: This is one category on the play side where I 100% agree with Gold Derby's predicted lineup. The only other contender I could see sneaking in is Heidi Schreck for What the Constitution Means to Me given all the acclaim she received for not only her performance, but also for writing the play as well. Two other contenders who may have had solid shots earlier on in the season, Janet McTeer in Bernhardt/Hamlet and Kerry Washington in American Son, are both pretty much long shots at this point.
Best Performance By a Featured Actor in a Play:
Gbenga Akinnagbe-To Kill a Mockingbird
Bertie Carvel-Ink
Tom Glynn-Carney-The Ferryman
Brandon Uranowitz-Burn This
Benjamin Walker-All My Sons
My Predictions: This is another category on the play side where I 100% agree with Gold Derby's predicted lineup. Though if the nominating committee really loves The Ferryman, I can see Justin Edwards and/or Fra Fee sneaking in here. Gideon Glick could also sneak in for To Kill a Mockingbird based on the strength of that production. Then again, while The Boys in the Band did end its limited run back in August, many people felt Robin De Jesús was the standout of the ensemble.
Best Performance By a Featured Actress in a Play:
Joan Allen-The Waverly Gallery
Fionnula Flanagan-The Ferryman
Jayne Houdyshell-King Lear
LaTanya Richardson Jackson-To Kill a Mockingbird
Celia Keenan-Bolger-To Kill a Mockingbird
While I've heard that LaTanya Richardson Jackson's character in To Kill a Mockingbird was beefed up from the original novel, I'm not sure if the stage adaptation can receive two acting nominations in this category. Though I guess it's still possible given how strong of a contender it is for Best Play. Kristine Nielsen and Julie White could both split their support for Gary: A Sequel to Titus Andronicus. They're both well-liked theatre comedians who had to step into new roles just before previews for the play began. Nielsen was bumped up to the role of Janice after Andrea Martin was forced to drop out due to an injury during rehearsal. White then had to take over for Nielsen in the role of Carol. Meanwhile, Mercedes Ruehl is an acting veteran who is also on the bubble for a nomination with her performance in Torch Song.
My Predictions: I'm bumping out Jayne Houdyshell and LaTanya Richardson Jackson for Dearbhla Molloy and Ruth Wilson. I'm expecting Dearbhla Molloy to get in as a coattail nomination for The Ferryman. From what I've gathered in the overall response to King Lear, Ruth Wilson appears to be more of a standout than Jayne Houdyshell. Especially given that Wilson has the opportunity to showcase her talents in two different roles.
Best Direction of a Play:
James Macdonald-True West
Sam Mendes-The Ferryman
Jack O’Brien-All My Sons
Bartlett Sher-To Kill a Mockingbird
Ivo van Hove-Network
While I understand why people are predicting Ivo van Hove to get in for Network given how tech-heavy of a production it is, I'm not sure if he can since I don't have the show in my predicted lineup for Best Play. I'm also surprised that the experts on Gold Derby are predicting a nomination for James Macdonald given how True West came and went in the winter, and was pretty much under the radar.
My Predictions: I'm bumping out James Macdonald and Ivo van Hove for Rupert Goold and Lila Neugebauer. Ink does appear to be a more obviously directed play, so I think predicting Rupert Goold would be a safe bet. While people did have problems with the direction of The Waverly Gallery, I think if the production itself is going to be a serious threat to win Best Revival of a Play, than Lila Neugebauer needs to show up here.
You can stream the nominations announcement at www.tonyawards.com this Tuesday morning at 8:30.
Best Play:
The Ferryman
Hillary & Clinton
Network
To Kill a Mockingbird
What the Constitution Means to Me
I’m not sure if Network can really make it into the Best Play lineup. It was more acclaimed for Bryan Cranston’s performance as well as a lot of the design elements, but not so much the play itself. Meanwhile, Hillary & Clinton (which is Lucas Hnath's follow-up play to A Doll's House, Part 2) hasn't appeared to have lived up to everyone's expectations. Gary: A Sequel to Titus Andronicus has also proven to be quite polarizing with critics and audiences.
My Predictions: I'm bumping out Hillary & Clinton and Network for Choir Boy and Ink. While Choir Boy already completed its limited run at Manhattan Theatre Club last month, it was still mostly well-regarded. While Ink hasn't been as well-received in New York as it was in London, I can still see the nominating committee showing some respect towards it.
Best Revival of a Play:
All My Sons
Burn This
King Lear
The Waverly Gallery
The current Broadway revival of King Lear has proven to be very divisive with both critics and audiences. There's also Second Stage Theatre's production of Torch Song from back in the fall. While the show did lose momentum with its premature closing earlier in the year, it was still well-liked.
My Predictions: I'm bumping out King Lear for The Boys in the Band. The Broadway premiere of Mart Crowley's 1968 landmark gay drama not only received a much more favorable response from critics than King Lear, but also True West (which is currently in fifth place of Gold Derby's overall rankings with 15/2 odds). While theatre critics aren’t members of the nominating committee, it’s still important to take a show’s overall reception into account when making your predictions.
Best Performance By a Leading Actor in a Play:
Paddy Considine-The Ferryman
Bryan Cranston-Network
Jeff Daniels-To Kill a Mockingbird
Adam Driver-Burn This
John Lithgow-Hillary & Clinton
If any acting category this year could use a tie in the nominating process to warrant an additional slot, this would have to be the one. There are so many other contenders that would more easily be recognized in any other year. Even Nathan Lane isn't included in everyone's predictions for his performance in Gary: A Sequel to Titus Andronicus. While that does sound like a shocker, we've seen in the past that name recognition alone doesn't get you nominated. Audra McDonald had to find out the hard way when she was snubbed for Shuffle Along three years ago. If Lucas Hedges sneaks in here, that could be a sign of strength for The Waverly Gallery. Jonny Lee Miller has gotten rave reviews for his performance as Larry Lamb in Ink. Can Michael Urie be remembered for his performance in Torch Song? Or could he suffer from the production's commercial failure back in the fall?
My Predictions: I'm bumping out Adam Driver and John Lithgow for Tracy Letts and Jeremy Pope. Given how strong of a contender All My Sons is now appearing to be, I think it would be a safe bet to predict Tracy Letts. Jeremy Pope has the benefit of making his Broadway debut twice this past season. First as the star of Choir Boy, then as a featured performer in the musical Ain't Too Proud. That visibility factor could boost his chances in this category. While critics did sing their praises for Driver's performance in Burn This, it's hard for me to decide who he could potentially bump out in a field of five.
Best Performance By a Leading Actress in a Play:
Annette Bening-All My Sons
Laura Donnelly-The Ferryman
Glenda Jackson-King Lear
Elaine May-The Waverly Gallery
Laurie Metcalf-Hillary & Clinton
My Predictions: This is one category on the play side where I 100% agree with Gold Derby's predicted lineup. The only other contender I could see sneaking in is Heidi Schreck for What the Constitution Means to Me given all the acclaim she received for not only her performance, but also for writing the play as well. Two other contenders who may have had solid shots earlier on in the season, Janet McTeer in Bernhardt/Hamlet and Kerry Washington in American Son, are both pretty much long shots at this point.
Best Performance By a Featured Actor in a Play:
Gbenga Akinnagbe-To Kill a Mockingbird
Bertie Carvel-Ink
Tom Glynn-Carney-The Ferryman
Brandon Uranowitz-Burn This
Benjamin Walker-All My Sons
My Predictions: This is another category on the play side where I 100% agree with Gold Derby's predicted lineup. Though if the nominating committee really loves The Ferryman, I can see Justin Edwards and/or Fra Fee sneaking in here. Gideon Glick could also sneak in for To Kill a Mockingbird based on the strength of that production. Then again, while The Boys in the Band did end its limited run back in August, many people felt Robin De Jesús was the standout of the ensemble.
Best Performance By a Featured Actress in a Play:
Joan Allen-The Waverly Gallery
Fionnula Flanagan-The Ferryman
Jayne Houdyshell-King Lear
LaTanya Richardson Jackson-To Kill a Mockingbird
Celia Keenan-Bolger-To Kill a Mockingbird
While I've heard that LaTanya Richardson Jackson's character in To Kill a Mockingbird was beefed up from the original novel, I'm not sure if the stage adaptation can receive two acting nominations in this category. Though I guess it's still possible given how strong of a contender it is for Best Play. Kristine Nielsen and Julie White could both split their support for Gary: A Sequel to Titus Andronicus. They're both well-liked theatre comedians who had to step into new roles just before previews for the play began. Nielsen was bumped up to the role of Janice after Andrea Martin was forced to drop out due to an injury during rehearsal. White then had to take over for Nielsen in the role of Carol. Meanwhile, Mercedes Ruehl is an acting veteran who is also on the bubble for a nomination with her performance in Torch Song.
My Predictions: I'm bumping out Jayne Houdyshell and LaTanya Richardson Jackson for Dearbhla Molloy and Ruth Wilson. I'm expecting Dearbhla Molloy to get in as a coattail nomination for The Ferryman. From what I've gathered in the overall response to King Lear, Ruth Wilson appears to be more of a standout than Jayne Houdyshell. Especially given that Wilson has the opportunity to showcase her talents in two different roles.
Best Direction of a Play:
James Macdonald-True West
Sam Mendes-The Ferryman
Jack O’Brien-All My Sons
Bartlett Sher-To Kill a Mockingbird
Ivo van Hove-Network
While I understand why people are predicting Ivo van Hove to get in for Network given how tech-heavy of a production it is, I'm not sure if he can since I don't have the show in my predicted lineup for Best Play. I'm also surprised that the experts on Gold Derby are predicting a nomination for James Macdonald given how True West came and went in the winter, and was pretty much under the radar.
My Predictions: I'm bumping out James Macdonald and Ivo van Hove for Rupert Goold and Lila Neugebauer. Ink does appear to be a more obviously directed play, so I think predicting Rupert Goold would be a safe bet. While people did have problems with the direction of The Waverly Gallery, I think if the production itself is going to be a serious threat to win Best Revival of a Play, than Lila Neugebauer needs to show up here.
You can stream the nominations announcement at www.tonyawards.com this Tuesday morning at 8:30.