As we're now about two days away from the announcement of this year's Tony Award nominations, I thought now would be a good time to share what my predictions are. On this page, I’ll be discussing my predictions for the musical categories. For each category, I’ll be listing the predicted nominees from the combined odds of Gold Derby, as well as my predictions.
Best Musical:
Ain’t Too Proud
Be More Chill
Hadestown
The Prom
Tootsie
My Predictions: This is one category on the musical side where I 100% agree with Gold Derby's predicted lineup. The only other new musical I could see sneaking in is The Cher Show given how big of a crowd-pleaser that's proven to be. Though of the two jukebox/biomusicals this season, Ain't Too Proud got a far more favorable response from critics and audiences, so I think that's likelier to nab a spot. In fact, the only show in my predictions that I think is vulnerable is Be More Chill. While that musical has been attracting a young audience to Broadway, it still wasn't really embraced by critics (it also skews very young). As for the other new musicals (Beetlejuice, Gettin' the Band Back Together, Head Over Heels, King Kong, and Pretty Woman), they all really have no chance of getting nominated.
Best Revival of a Musical:
Kiss Me, Kate
Oklahoma!
My Predictions: That’s it. Both of those shows are the only two musical revivals that opened on Broadway this past season.
Best Performance By a Leading Actor in a Musical:
Brooks Ashmanskas-The Prom
Alex Brightman-Beetlejuice
Will Chase-Kiss Me, Kate
Damon Daunno-Oklahoma!
Santino Fontana-Tootsie
Given the recent underwhelming critical response to Beetlejuice, I'd be surprised to see Alex Brightman recognized for his performance as the title character. We've seen performances in the past get snubbed as punishment by the nominating committee for appearing in shows they just did not care for no matter how good of a job the performers did.
My Predictions: I’m bumping out Alex Brightman and Will Chase for Derrick Baskin and Reeve Carney. After having had small featured parts in The 25th Annual Putnam County Spelling Bee, The Little Mermaid, and Memphis, Derrick Baskin is not only back on Broadway in Ain’t Too Proud, but the show also marks his very first leading role. I think that narrative will help him land a spot in the lineup. While people have thought that Reeve Carney was the weak link of Hadestown, I have a feeling that he’s going to show up as a coattail nomination for the musical itself. While I can still see Broadway veteran Will Chase getting in for Kiss Me, Kate, it's hard for me to decide who he could potentially bump out in a field of five.
Best Performance By a Leading Actress in a Musical:
Stephanie J. Block-The Cher Show
Rebecca Naomi Jones-Oklahoma!
Beth Leavel-The Prom
Eva Noblezada-Hadestown
Kelli O’Hara-Kiss Me, Kate
My Predictions: This is another category on the musical side where I 100% agree with Gold Derby's predicted lineup. The only one I could see being vulnerable is Rebecca Naomi Jones based on posts I've read in message boards saying that she was the weak link of the cast in Oklahoma!. Then again, I would not be too surprised if Broadway favorite Kelli O'Hara gets snubbed here like Audra McDonald was for Shuffle Along three years ago. Some nominators may come across her name and think "you know, we don't need to nominate her every time." Though who could be an alternative? While the stage musical adaptation of Pretty Woman received a tepid critical reception, Samantha Barks has been singled out as the best thing about it. Not only that, but she’s also done quite a bit of campaigning in recent weeks. She’s been interviewed by Paul Wontorek for Broadway.com, AOL Build, and Julie James for Sirius XM. However, if the nominating committee really embraces The Prom, I could see the other female lead, Caitlin Kinnunen, sneaking in.
Best Performance By a Featured Actor in a Musical:
Corbin Bleu-Kiss Me, Kate
André De Shields-Hadestown
Patrick Page-Hadestown
George Salazar-Be More Chill
Christopher Sieber-The Prom
My Predictions: This is another category on the musical side where I 100% agree with Gold Derby's predicted lineup. Though there's a trio of performances from Oklahoma! (Will Brill, James Davis, and Patrick Vaill) who could sneak in, but they could also split their support. The same thing can be said for Jeremy Pope and Ephraim Sykes, who have both been seen as standouts in Ain't Too Proud.
Best Performance By a Featured Actress in a Musical:
Amber Gray-Hadestown
Stephanie Hsu-Be More Chill
Sarah Stiles-Tootsie
Ali Stroker-Oklahoma!
Mary Testa-Oklahoma!
I think if Be More Chill receives only one acting nomination, it'll more likely be for George Salazar in Featured Actor given his standout number ('Michael in the Bathroom'). While Head Over Heels has been long gone from Broadway at this point, there has been a rooting factor for Bonnie Milligan to be remembered with a nomination for her Broadway debut. Even critics who didn't like The Go-Go's jukebox musical still felt that she was one of (if not) the best things about it. Then again, Angie Schworer has been in the business for almost 30 years, spent most of her career as a chorus girl, yet has now finally been able to originate a principal role on Broadway in The Prom.
My Predictions: I’m bumping out Stephanie Hsu for Stephanie Styles. She earned rave reviews for her Broadway debut in Kiss Me, Kate. David Cote of the Observer praised her as a “petite comic powerhouse” who could “join the lineage of [Bernadette] Peters, [Kristin] Chenoweth and [Annaleigh] Ashford.”
Best Direction of a Musical:
Rachel Chavkin-Hadestown
Scott Ellis-Kiss Me, Kate
Scott Ellis-Tootsie
Daniel Fish-Oklahoma!
Casey Nicholaw-The Prom
My Predictions: This is another category on the musical side where I 100% agree with Gold Derby's predicted lineup. The only other contender I could see sneaking in is Des McAnuff for Ain't Too Proud. Ever since Jersey Boys won Best Musical in 2006, he went on to direct several critical flops such as The Farnsworth Invention, the most recent Broadway revival of Guys & Dolls, Doctor Zhivago, and last season's Summer: The Donna Summer Musical. Ain't Too Proud now appears to be his best reviewed production since Jersey Boys, so he's a possibility.
Best Original Score:
Beetlejuice-Music & Lyrics By Eddie Perfect
Be More Chill-Music & Lyrics By Joe Iconis
Hadestown-Music & Lyrics By Anaïs Mitchell
The Prom-Music By Matthew Sklar, Lyrics By Chad Beguelin
Tootsie-Music & Lyrics By David Yazbek
Given the less than stellar reviews both Eddie Perfect scores received this season (Beetlejuice and King Kong), I doubt he'll be getting recognized at all. In fact, I don't see any of the other new musical scores (Gettin' the Band Back Together and Pretty Woman) getting nominations either.
My Predictions: I’m bumping out Beetlejuice for King Lear. The legendary Philip Glass wrote an underscore for the production that is performed by an orchestra on stage. While I've read that audiences found it distracting, I'm still predicting it to get in by default.
Best Book of a Musical:
Ain’t Too Proud-Dominique Morisseau
Be More Chill-Joe Tracz
Hadestown-Anaïs Mitchell
The Prom-Bob Martin & Chad Beguelin
Tootsie-Robert Horn
My Predictions: This is another category on the musical side where I 100% agree with Gold Derby's predicted lineup. I also think it's a safe bet for me to go with those five given that they're also in my predicted lineup for Best Musical. Once again, the only other contender I could possibly see sneaking in is The Cher Show given that book writer Rick Elice apparently has a lot of fans around Shubert Alley.
Best Choreography:
Warren Carlyle-Kiss Me, Kate
John Heginbotham-Oklahoma!
David Neumann-Hadestown
Casey Nicholaw-The Prom
Sergio Trujillo-Ain’t Too Proud
While I can see John Heginbotham getting in as a coattail nomination for Oklahoma!, I've read reactions from people saying that they were underwhelmed by his rendition of the ballet sequence at the end of Act I. However, one must never underestimate Christopher Gattelli. Not only is he a previous winner for Newsies, but he's also earned five Tony nominations overall within this past decade, including two last year for his work on My Fair Lady and SpongeBob SquarePants. Gattelli is back in contention again this year for The Cher Show. Then again, I could see Spencer Liff sneaking in given all the energetic dance numbers he had to create for Head Over Heels.
My Predictions: I’m bumping out John Heginbotham for Denis Jones. Not only am I expecting him to show up as a coattail nomination for Tootsie, but Jones is also a rising choreographer who received several glowing notices for his work on the show.
You can stream the nominations announcement at www.tonyawards.com this Tuesday morning at 8:30.
Best Musical:
Ain’t Too Proud
Be More Chill
Hadestown
The Prom
Tootsie
My Predictions: This is one category on the musical side where I 100% agree with Gold Derby's predicted lineup. The only other new musical I could see sneaking in is The Cher Show given how big of a crowd-pleaser that's proven to be. Though of the two jukebox/biomusicals this season, Ain't Too Proud got a far more favorable response from critics and audiences, so I think that's likelier to nab a spot. In fact, the only show in my predictions that I think is vulnerable is Be More Chill. While that musical has been attracting a young audience to Broadway, it still wasn't really embraced by critics (it also skews very young). As for the other new musicals (Beetlejuice, Gettin' the Band Back Together, Head Over Heels, King Kong, and Pretty Woman), they all really have no chance of getting nominated.
Best Revival of a Musical:
Kiss Me, Kate
Oklahoma!
My Predictions: That’s it. Both of those shows are the only two musical revivals that opened on Broadway this past season.
Best Performance By a Leading Actor in a Musical:
Brooks Ashmanskas-The Prom
Alex Brightman-Beetlejuice
Will Chase-Kiss Me, Kate
Damon Daunno-Oklahoma!
Santino Fontana-Tootsie
Given the recent underwhelming critical response to Beetlejuice, I'd be surprised to see Alex Brightman recognized for his performance as the title character. We've seen performances in the past get snubbed as punishment by the nominating committee for appearing in shows they just did not care for no matter how good of a job the performers did.
My Predictions: I’m bumping out Alex Brightman and Will Chase for Derrick Baskin and Reeve Carney. After having had small featured parts in The 25th Annual Putnam County Spelling Bee, The Little Mermaid, and Memphis, Derrick Baskin is not only back on Broadway in Ain’t Too Proud, but the show also marks his very first leading role. I think that narrative will help him land a spot in the lineup. While people have thought that Reeve Carney was the weak link of Hadestown, I have a feeling that he’s going to show up as a coattail nomination for the musical itself. While I can still see Broadway veteran Will Chase getting in for Kiss Me, Kate, it's hard for me to decide who he could potentially bump out in a field of five.
Best Performance By a Leading Actress in a Musical:
Stephanie J. Block-The Cher Show
Rebecca Naomi Jones-Oklahoma!
Beth Leavel-The Prom
Eva Noblezada-Hadestown
Kelli O’Hara-Kiss Me, Kate
My Predictions: This is another category on the musical side where I 100% agree with Gold Derby's predicted lineup. The only one I could see being vulnerable is Rebecca Naomi Jones based on posts I've read in message boards saying that she was the weak link of the cast in Oklahoma!. Then again, I would not be too surprised if Broadway favorite Kelli O'Hara gets snubbed here like Audra McDonald was for Shuffle Along three years ago. Some nominators may come across her name and think "you know, we don't need to nominate her every time." Though who could be an alternative? While the stage musical adaptation of Pretty Woman received a tepid critical reception, Samantha Barks has been singled out as the best thing about it. Not only that, but she’s also done quite a bit of campaigning in recent weeks. She’s been interviewed by Paul Wontorek for Broadway.com, AOL Build, and Julie James for Sirius XM. However, if the nominating committee really embraces The Prom, I could see the other female lead, Caitlin Kinnunen, sneaking in.
Best Performance By a Featured Actor in a Musical:
Corbin Bleu-Kiss Me, Kate
André De Shields-Hadestown
Patrick Page-Hadestown
George Salazar-Be More Chill
Christopher Sieber-The Prom
My Predictions: This is another category on the musical side where I 100% agree with Gold Derby's predicted lineup. Though there's a trio of performances from Oklahoma! (Will Brill, James Davis, and Patrick Vaill) who could sneak in, but they could also split their support. The same thing can be said for Jeremy Pope and Ephraim Sykes, who have both been seen as standouts in Ain't Too Proud.
Best Performance By a Featured Actress in a Musical:
Amber Gray-Hadestown
Stephanie Hsu-Be More Chill
Sarah Stiles-Tootsie
Ali Stroker-Oklahoma!
Mary Testa-Oklahoma!
I think if Be More Chill receives only one acting nomination, it'll more likely be for George Salazar in Featured Actor given his standout number ('Michael in the Bathroom'). While Head Over Heels has been long gone from Broadway at this point, there has been a rooting factor for Bonnie Milligan to be remembered with a nomination for her Broadway debut. Even critics who didn't like The Go-Go's jukebox musical still felt that she was one of (if not) the best things about it. Then again, Angie Schworer has been in the business for almost 30 years, spent most of her career as a chorus girl, yet has now finally been able to originate a principal role on Broadway in The Prom.
My Predictions: I’m bumping out Stephanie Hsu for Stephanie Styles. She earned rave reviews for her Broadway debut in Kiss Me, Kate. David Cote of the Observer praised her as a “petite comic powerhouse” who could “join the lineage of [Bernadette] Peters, [Kristin] Chenoweth and [Annaleigh] Ashford.”
Best Direction of a Musical:
Rachel Chavkin-Hadestown
Scott Ellis-Kiss Me, Kate
Scott Ellis-Tootsie
Daniel Fish-Oklahoma!
Casey Nicholaw-The Prom
My Predictions: This is another category on the musical side where I 100% agree with Gold Derby's predicted lineup. The only other contender I could see sneaking in is Des McAnuff for Ain't Too Proud. Ever since Jersey Boys won Best Musical in 2006, he went on to direct several critical flops such as The Farnsworth Invention, the most recent Broadway revival of Guys & Dolls, Doctor Zhivago, and last season's Summer: The Donna Summer Musical. Ain't Too Proud now appears to be his best reviewed production since Jersey Boys, so he's a possibility.
Best Original Score:
Beetlejuice-Music & Lyrics By Eddie Perfect
Be More Chill-Music & Lyrics By Joe Iconis
Hadestown-Music & Lyrics By Anaïs Mitchell
The Prom-Music By Matthew Sklar, Lyrics By Chad Beguelin
Tootsie-Music & Lyrics By David Yazbek
Given the less than stellar reviews both Eddie Perfect scores received this season (Beetlejuice and King Kong), I doubt he'll be getting recognized at all. In fact, I don't see any of the other new musical scores (Gettin' the Band Back Together and Pretty Woman) getting nominations either.
My Predictions: I’m bumping out Beetlejuice for King Lear. The legendary Philip Glass wrote an underscore for the production that is performed by an orchestra on stage. While I've read that audiences found it distracting, I'm still predicting it to get in by default.
Best Book of a Musical:
Ain’t Too Proud-Dominique Morisseau
Be More Chill-Joe Tracz
Hadestown-Anaïs Mitchell
The Prom-Bob Martin & Chad Beguelin
Tootsie-Robert Horn
My Predictions: This is another category on the musical side where I 100% agree with Gold Derby's predicted lineup. I also think it's a safe bet for me to go with those five given that they're also in my predicted lineup for Best Musical. Once again, the only other contender I could possibly see sneaking in is The Cher Show given that book writer Rick Elice apparently has a lot of fans around Shubert Alley.
Best Choreography:
Warren Carlyle-Kiss Me, Kate
John Heginbotham-Oklahoma!
David Neumann-Hadestown
Casey Nicholaw-The Prom
Sergio Trujillo-Ain’t Too Proud
While I can see John Heginbotham getting in as a coattail nomination for Oklahoma!, I've read reactions from people saying that they were underwhelmed by his rendition of the ballet sequence at the end of Act I. However, one must never underestimate Christopher Gattelli. Not only is he a previous winner for Newsies, but he's also earned five Tony nominations overall within this past decade, including two last year for his work on My Fair Lady and SpongeBob SquarePants. Gattelli is back in contention again this year for The Cher Show. Then again, I could see Spencer Liff sneaking in given all the energetic dance numbers he had to create for Head Over Heels.
My Predictions: I’m bumping out John Heginbotham for Denis Jones. Not only am I expecting him to show up as a coattail nomination for Tootsie, but Jones is also a rising choreographer who received several glowing notices for his work on the show.
You can stream the nominations announcement at www.tonyawards.com this Tuesday morning at 8:30.