2018 Golden Globe Predictions

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It’s beginning to look a lot like awards season. That time of year when we start seeing red carpets, glitz, glamour, acceptance speeches, and protests against sexual harassment as many of the attendees at this year’s ceremony will be dressed in black.

In any case, the 75th Golden Globe Awards air on NBC tonight! With so little time left, I’ll be giving you my predictions for the film categories. Please keep in mind that the nominees and winners are voted on by about 93 members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. So let’s get on with the predictions, shall we?

Best Motion Picture-Drama:
  1. The Shape of Water
  2. The Post
  3. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
  4. Dunkirk
  5. Call Me By Your Name
A fantasy drama about a mute custodian who falls in love with an amphibian creature leads the Golden Globe nominations, but can it win Best Motion Picture-Drama? The Shape of Water has received tons of acclaim and is from Mexican filmmaker Guillermo del Toro, so that that might just appeal to the Hollywood Foreign Press. Then again, The Post does have the narrative of how Steven Spielberg quickly fast tracked it for this year as he knew how timely the script was to today’s political climate.

Best Actor in a Motion Picture-Drama:
  1. Gary Oldman-Darkest Hour
  2. Timothee Chalamet-Call Me By Your Name
  3. Daniel Day-Lewis-Phantom Thread
  4. Tom Hanks-The Post
  5. Denzel Washington-Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Gary Oldman received his very first Golden Globe nomination this year for his transformation as Winston Churchill in Darkest Hour. Oldman was even generous enough to say that he was "amazed, flattered, and very proud" to be recognized as he had previously criticized the Globes for being "meaningless". If those comments end up being held against Oldman, lookout for Timothee Chalamet to pull an upset as he’s enjoying a breakout year not only with his nominated performance in Call Me By Your Name, but also his supporting role in Lady Bird.

Best Actress in a Motion Picture-Drama:
  1. Sally Hawkins-The Shape of Water
  2. Frances McDormand-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
  3. Meryl Streep-The Post
  4. Jessica Chastain-Molly’s Game
  5. Michelle Williams-All the Money in the World
Frances McDormand has earned five individual Golden Globe nominations in the past, but still has yet to win. Interesting enough, one of her previously nominated performances was for Burn After Reading back in 2009, where she lost to Sally Hawkins for Happy-Go-Lucky. Could that change this year with McDormand’s performance in Three Billboards? Or could history repeat itself with Hawkins beating her again, this time for playing a mute in The Shape of Water? It is worth noting that Hawkins is the only non-american among the nominees, which could appeal to HFPA members. Then again, lookout for Meryl Streep, who’s received nine Golden Globes in the past, including last year’s Cecil B. DeMille Award, where she made quite an epic speech.

Best Motion Picture-Comedy/Musical:
  1. Lady Bird
  2. Get Out
  3. I, Tonya
  4. The Disaster Artist
  5. The Greatest Showman
Lady Bird has gotten tons of acclaim from nearly everybody who’s seen it. On paper, it looks like a solid frontrunner to win this category. Though Get Out, a horror comedy written & directed by Jordan Peele that came out way back in February of last year, did very well at the box office. Not only that, but that film also has some social commentary on race relations in America.

Best Actor in a Motion Picture-Comedy/Musical:
  1. James Franco-The Disaster Artist
  2. Daniel Kaluuya-Get Out
  3. Hugh Jackman-The Greatest Showman
  4. Steve Carell-Battle 0f the Sexes
  5. Ansel Elgort-Baby Driver
James Franco won his first Golden Globe in 2002 for his performance as James Dean in a TV movie. This year, he’s nominated for his performance as filmmaker Tommy Wiseau in The Disaster Artist, a film which he also produced and directed. Not to mention that he’s also just coming off of the successful first season of HBO’s The Deuce. Though Daniel Kaluuya, a black Brit, is the breakout star of Get Out, and HFPA members may want to award him.

Best Actress in a Motion Picture-Comedy/Musical:
  1. Saoirse Ronan-Lady Bird
  2. Margot Robbie-I, Tonya
  3. Emma Stone-Battle of the Sexes
  4. Judi Dench-Victoria & Abdul
  5. Helen Mirren-The Leisure Seeker
Saoirse Ronan was only 13 years old when she received her first Golden Globe nomination for her supporting role in Atonement. Since then, HFPA members have watched this Irish actress grow up in other films they’ve recognized such as The Lovely Bones, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Brooklyn, and now Lady Bird. Though Margot Robbie is worth keeping an eye out on as she’s an Australian actress playing Tonya Harding in I, Tonya.

Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture:
  1. Willem Dafoe-The Florida Project
  2. Christopher Plummer-All the Money in the World
  3. Sam Rockwell-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
  4. Armie Hammer-Call Me By Your Name
  5. Richard Jenkins-The Shape of Water​
Willem Dafoe is a veteran actor who’s been working for almost forty years and has had prominent roles in such films as Platoon, The Last Temptation of Christ, Mississippi Burning, The English Patient, Shadow of the Vampire, and The Grand Budapest Hotel. Now, he continues his streak of prominent roles with his performance as a motel manager in The Florida Project. Though anyone of the other nominees could pose a threat. Acting legend Christopher Plummer does have the narrative of how he replaced Kevin Spacey in All the Money in the World only less than two months ago. Sam Rockwell is also a veteran actor whose role in Three Billboards has a very interesting character arc. Armie Hammer first rose to prominence in the Golden Globe-winning The Social Network, now he’s a nominee himself for his role in Call Me By Your Name.

Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture:
  1. Laurie Metcalf-Lady Bird
  2. Allison Janney-I, Tonya
  3. Mary J. Blige-Mudbound
  4. Octavia Spencer-The Shape of Water
  5. Hong Chau-Downsizing
Laurie Metcalf has previously won three Emmys for her role on Roseanne, which also earned her two Golden Globe nominations. Yet, her pivotal role as the domineering mother in Lady Bird seems likely to make her a first time winner. Then again, Allison Janney has been nominated for six Golden Globes in the past, but still has yet to win. Could her role as the overbearing mother in I, Tonya do the trick? Though I would keep an eye out on Mary J. Blige, a recording artist who is literally unrecognizable as her character in Mudbound, for which she is also nominated for the song, ‘Mighty River’.

Best Director:
  1. Guillermo del Toro-The Shape of Water
  2. Christopher Nolan-Dunkirk
  3. Steven Spielberg-The Post
  4. Martin McDonagh-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
  5. Ridley Scott-All the Money in the World​
Mexican filmmaker Guillermo del Toro has made some tentpole films in the past like Hellboy and Pacific Rim, yet also some more artistic films like Pan’s Labyrinth and now The Shape of Water. On paper, he looks like the ideal choice for who HFPA members would like to award. Then again, British filmmaker Christopher Nolan is also in the conversation. He’s made several films that have been recognized by the Globes before such as Memento, The Dark Knight, Inception, and Interstellar. He is nominated again this year for his World War II epic, Dunkirk. A film that also happens to be an excellent showcase for his talents. Though could filmmaking legend Steven Spielberg pull an upset? He’s won six Globes in the past, and his latest nomination is for The Post, a film that he quickly fast tracked for this year after he first read the script.

Best Screenplay:
  1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri-Martin McDonagh
  2. Lady Bird-Greta Gerwig
  3. Molly’s Game-Aaron Sorkin
  4. The Post-Liz Hannah & Josh Singer
  5. The Shape of Water-Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor

Martin McDonagh is a British/Irish playwright turned filmmaker who’s won a lot of acclaim for his latest film, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, where he balances black comedy against searing drama. Though in this era of female empowerment, I can definitely see Greta Gerwig winning here for Lady Bird, which also marked her sole directorial debut. Then again, there’s veteran screenwriter Aaron Sorkin in the conversation for Molly’s Game, which also marked his directorial debut. It also helps that he’s won two Globes in the past for The Social Network and Steve Jobs (which was an upset he pulled two years ago).

The Red Carpet begins at 7:00 tonight on NBC followed by the 75th Golden Globes at 8:00! Here’s hoping all envelopes will be in order.
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