The 98th Academy Awards are almost here! They’ll be taking place this evening at 7PM E/4PM P on ABC. To prepare you all for Hollywood’s biggest night, I’ll be going through about 11 of the 24 categories (which will consist of the 8 main above the line awards as well as the three other Best Film awards) and give you insights as to how the race in each of them is shaping up going into the Oscars. So let’s get on with it, shall we?

​Best Animated Feature Film:

1. KPop Demon Hunters
2. Zootopia 2
3. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
4. Arco
5. Elio

With wins from the Critics’ Choice, Golden Globes, and Producers Guild of America, there’s no stopping the biggest Netflix movie in the world. Zootopia 2 may have won this category at BAFTA, but KPop Demon Hunters wasn’t eligible there. Expect the latter to take it in a cakewalk.

Best Documentary Feature Film:

1. Mr. Nobody Against Putin
2. The Perfect Neighbor
3. The Alabama Solution
4. Come See Me in the Good Light
5. Cutting Through Rocks

The Critics’ Choice Documentary Awards went for The Perfect Neighbor. The BAFTA went to Mr. Nobody Against Putin. The PGA went to My Mom Jayne, which isn’t even nominated here. Due to BAFTA having voter overlap with the American Academy, I’m settling on Mr. Nobody Against Putin. It helps that it’s relevant to the current Russia-Ukraine War.

Best International Feature Film:

1. Sentimental Value
2. The Secret Agent
3. It Was Just an Accident
4. The Voice of Hind Rajab
5. Sirât

For the second year in a row, we have two Best Picture nominees in contention here. Critics’ Choice and Golden Globes went for The Secret Agent while BAFTA (which has voter overlap with the American Academy) went for Sentimental Value. Last year, I’m Still Here managed to pull out a win in this category despite having way less nominations than the early frontrunner, Emilia Pérez. Although in that scenario, the latter faced a ton of controversies after nominations were announced. Not the case this time. So with Sentimental Value having more bids across the board, expect that one to win here.

Best Original Screenplay:

1. Sinners
2. Sentimental Value
3. Marty Supreme
4. It Was Just an Accident
5. Blue Moon

Sometimes, this award goes to the most original movie in contention like Her, Get Out, and Promising Young Woman. By that logic, Sinners, which follows twin brothers who are confronted by vampires in the Jim Crow South, fits that mold. With wins from the Critics’ Choice, BAFTA, and Writers Guild of America, expect Ryan Coogler to become the second African-American winner in this category following Jordan Peele for the aforementioned Get Out.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

1. One Battle After Another
2. Hamnet
3. Train Dreams
4. Frankenstein
5. Bugonia

As legendary filmmaker Paul Thomas Anderson now has 14 Oscar nominations, this should get him his very first win. At this point, One Battle After Another has become the most awarded Adapted Screenplay contender since The Social Network 15 years ago. With wins from Critics’ Choice, Golden Globes, BAFTA, and WGA, it’s PTA’s to lose.

Best Supporting Actress:

1. Wunmi Mosaku-Sinners
2. Amy Madigan-Weapons
3. Teyana Taylor-One Battle After Another
4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas-Sentimental Value
5. Elle Fanning-Sentimental Value

This is looking to be one of the biggest head scratchers going into the ceremony. Different people were winning different precursors throughout the season. Normally in fractured races like this, it’d be smart to go with the nominee whose film is the stronger contender. As One Battle After Another is our Best Picture frontrunner, you’d think that would benefit Teyana Taylor. Yet all she’s managed to win from the televised awards is the Golden Globe and that’s it. The last time an actor managed to win the Oscar with just a Globe under their belt was George Clooney for Syriana way back in 2005. Meanwhile, Amy Madigan has won the Critics’ Choice and SAG for Weapons. While it’s possible could win the Oscar, she still has multiple hurdles to overcome.

1. There’s the factor that Weapons is a horror movie. Performances in films of that genre typically only get nominations at best. Getting an actual win is a different story.
2. She’s the lone representation for her film. The last time an actor managed to overcome that hurdle at the Oscars was Julianne Moore for Still Alice back in 2014. But in her case, she not only had an overdue narrative, but she was also a sweeper.
3. Madigan not only didn’t sweep the season, but she also wasn’t nominated at BAFTA despite making their longlist beforehand.

Speaking of which, the BAFTA went to Wunmi Mosaku for Sinners. Some may attribute that to her being a Brit, but that group has still correctly forecasted upsets before. Which includes other Brits like Tilda Swinton in Michael Clayton, Mark Rylance in Bridge of Spies, and Anthony Hopkins in The Father. Between the two industry precursor winners this year, I’d give Mosaku the edge. Although Madigan has reportedly been getting a ton of support from both younger and older Academy members. I may be tempted to pull the trigger on the latter. Whether I do or not, I hope this category is the first to be presented on the telecast just to get this race done and over with.

Best Supporting Actor:

1. Sean Penn-One Battle After Another
2. Delroy Lindo-Sinners
3. Stellan Skarsgård-Sentimental Value
4. Jacob Elordi-Frankenstein
5. Benicio del Toro-One Battle After Another

For a while, it looked like this category was going to be a head scratcher too. Jacob Elordi pulled off a surprise win at Critics’ Choice for Frankenstein. Stellan Skarsgård prevailed at the Golden Globes for Sentimental Value. The latter wasn’t nominated at SAG, where Sean Penn won in his absence for One Battle After Another. Beforehand, Penn managed to win at BAFTA. With those two industry prizes combined, that helps make things a little easier. As villains do have a great track record of winning this category coupled with One Battle After Another’s status in the race, I think both factors give him the edge to win a third Oscar. Although some are wondering if Delroy Lindo could pull off a big shockaroo of a win for Sinners despite having no major precursor nomination at all like Marcia Gay Harden did for Pollock in 2000. Not impossible, but I wouldn’t count on it.

Best Actress:

1. Jessie Buckley-Hamnet
2. Rose Byrne-If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
3. Renate Reinsve-Sentimental Value
4. Kate Hudson-Song Sung Blue
5. Emma Stone-Bugonia

For the first time since 2019, this category saw a sweeper throughout the whole season. That year, it was Renée Zellweger in Judy. This year, it’s one of her co-stars from that film, Jessie Buckley in Hamnet. With wins everywhere from Critics’ Choice, Golden Globes, BAFTA, and SAG, it’s pretty much hers to lose at this point. Lucky for the King of all Best Actress predictors, Next Best Picture’s Josh Parham, who won’t have to worry about getting it right this year.

Best Actor:

1. Michael B. Jordan-Sinners
2. Timothée Chalamet-Marty Supreme
3. Wagner Moura-The Secret Agent
4. Leonardo DiCaprio-One Battle After Another
5. Ethan Hawke-Blue Moon

Last year, Adrien Brody gave what became the longest acceptance speech in Oscar history when he won this category for The Brutalist. It lasted about 5 and a half minutes, which might as well be just as long as our discussion of this year’s race will be. Early on in the season, it looked like the third time was going to be the charm for Timothée Chalamet. He managed to win the Critics’ Choice and Golden Globe (in Comedy/Musical Actor) for Marty Supreme. Although at BAFTA, they went for Robert Aramayo in I Swear, who wasn’t eligible for this year’s Oscars. Yet at SAG, they went for Michael B. Jordan in Sinners. Not to mention that Wagner Moura, who only managed to win the Best Drama Actor Globe for The Secret Agent, has really been on the campaign trail throughout the season. Chalamet having just turned 30, Academy members by and large likely still see him as this kid and he’ll have plenty of more opportunities to win someday (just as long as he doesn’t do anymore off-putting campaigns). Moura having no nominations from SAG nor BAFTA probably won’t help him. With Jordan’s SAG win and acceptance speech taking place right in the middle of final voting, I think that might just give him the edge. It especially helps that in Sinners, he gives two performances for the price of one by playing twins.

Best Director:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson-One Battle After Another
2. Ryan Coogler-Sinners
3. Chloé Zhao-Hamnet
4. Joachim Trier-Sentimental Value
5. Josh Safdie-Marty Supreme

With wins from Critics’ Choice, Golden Globes, BAFTA, and the Director’s Guild of America, it’s PTA’s to lose. We should expect him to become the latest filmmaker to win the trifecta of Screenplay, Director, and Picture for One Battle After Another.

Best Picture:

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Hamnet
4. Sentimental Value
5. Train Dreams
6. The Secret Agent
7. Marty Supreme
8. Frankenstein
9. Bugonia
10. F1

One Battle After Another has been the frontrunner since its release back in September. Throughout the winter season, it has pretty much triumphed in one Best Picture prize after. From Critics’ Choice to Golden Globes to BAFTA to PGA. I know some are speculating whether or not Sinners could pull a shocking upset, especially given their recent SAG Ensemble win. Although keep in mind how that group only correctly forecasts the Best Picture Oscar winner only half the time. Plus, given the timely nature of One Battle After Another, I have a hard time seeing it lose at this point.

As a reminder, the Academy Awards will be taking place tonight on ABC. The pre-show will begin at 6:30pm/3:30pm. After that, the 98th Oscars telecast will begin at 7:00/4:00 lasting for about three and a half hours or so.