The 98th Academy Awards are almost here! They’ll be taking place on Sunday, March 15th at 7PM E/4PM P on ABC. To prepare you all for Hollywood’s biggest night, I’ll be going through all 10 below-the-line categories and give you insights as to how the race in each of them is shaping up going into the Oscars. So let’s get on with it, shall we?

Best Casting:

1. Sinners
2. One Battle After Another
3. The Secret Agent
4. Marty Supreme
5. Hamnet

What better category to start with than the newest one. Probably the trickiest race to predict this year for various reasons. Critics’ Choice rebranded their ensemble award as Best Casting & Ensemble, which ended up going to Sinners. BAFTA, which has been awarding casting directors since 2019, went to I Swear, which isn’t eligible at this year’s Oscars. As Cody Derricks of Next Best Picture has especially observed, all but one of their winners also went hand-in-hand with an acting prize. As of now, that remains to be seen whether or not it will also apply to the American Academy. During NBP’s final predictions podcast, Matt Neglia mentioned from his conversations with voters that a key thing they looked for was the casting of each secondary character. Given the recent SAG Ensemble win for Sinners coupled with it potentially also taking at least one acting prize, that’s what I’m settling on.

Best Cinematography:

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Train Dreams
4. Marty Supreme
5. Frankenstein

Early on in the season, many were betting on Sinners to win this. Especially given in part the history-making narrative for Autumn Durald Arkapaw to become the very first female winner in this category. Yet that narrative never took off. Critics’ Choice went to Train Dreams. Meanwhile, One Battle After Another took home prizes from the American Society of Cinematographers, British Society of Cinematographers, and BAFTA. Therefore, we should expect Michael Bauman to take this, especially for shooting that film on VistaVision.

Best Costume Design:

1. Frankenstein
2. Sinners
3. Hamnet
4. Marty Supreme
5. Avatar: Fire and Ash

One of the least complicated below-the-line races this year. With wins from Critics’ Choice, Costume Designers Guild, and BAFTA, Kate Hawley pretty much has this in the bag for stunning work on Frankenstein.

Best Film Editing:

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. F1
4. Marty Supreme
5. Sentimental Value

When F1 won this category at Critics’ Choice, many predictors started to keep an eye on it as a potential winner here. But then it started to lose steam as the season went on. The ACE Eddie Award for Drama went to Sinners while their Comedy category went to One Battle After Another. At BAFTA, which like the Oscars is voted on by an entire membership (most of whom aren’t as intimately familiar with the craft of editing), the latter prevailed. Given how the Academy has as of late gotten more consistent with awarding the Best Picture champ in this category, I’m settling on Andy Jurgensen for One Battle After Another.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling:

1. Frankenstein
2. Sinners
3. The Ugly Stepsister
4. Kokuho
5. The Smashing Machine

Frankenstein has already won accolades in this category from the Critics’ Choice, Make-Up & Hair Stylists Guild, and BAFTA Awards. It’s pretty much a near lock for the Oscar. Sinners may have beaten it in a couple other categories at MUAHS, but with the entire Academy voting, they’re more likely to be wowed by the work in the former.

Best Original Score:

1. Sinners
2. One Battle After Another
3. Frankenstein
4. Hamnet
5. Bugonia

Here’s an Oscar Sinners will definitely be taking home. Ludwig Göransson has not only managed to win the Critics’ Choice, Golden Globe, and BAFTA in this category, but also a Grammy. As it’s looking likely for him to win his third Oscar in 7 years (after having previously triumphed for 2018’s Black Panther and 2023’s Oppenheimer), he’s pretty much cementing himself as the most prolific film composer of his generation.

Best Original Song:

1. ‘Golden’ from KPop Demon Hunters
2. ‘I Lied to You’ from Sinners
3. ‘Train Dreams’ from Train Dreams
4. ‘Dear Me’ from Diane Warren: Relentless
5. ‘Sweet Dreams of Joy’ from Viva Verdi!

No film that won this category at both Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice has ever gone on to lose the Oscar (not counting those that were snubbed by the Academy). As ‘Golden’ from KPop Demon Hunters has not only managed to win both, but also become such a record-breaking hit on the billboard charts, I have a hard time seeing it lose at this point.

Best Production Design:

1. Frankenstein
2. Sinners
3. Marty Supreme
4. Hamnet
5. One Battle After Another

As previous Guillermo del Toro films such as Pan’s Labyrinth in 2006 and The Shape of Water in 2017 have come out triumphant in this category, looks like we’ll be adding a third to the list. Frankenstein has won everything from the Critics’ Choice, BAFTA, and Art Directors Guild for its immaculate worldbuilding. I have a hard time seeing it lose at this point.

Best Sound:

1. F1
2. Sinners
3. Frankenstein
4. Sirât
5. One Battle After Another

With wins from the Critics’ Choice, BAFTA, and the Cinema Audio Society, it’s probably a safe bet to predict F1 to prevail here. Although it did lose to Sinners at the Golden Reel Awards presented by the Motion Picture Sound Editors. Music does play a key role in the latter film. If we still had two separate sound categories, it’d probably go F1 for Sound Editing while Sinners takes Sound Mixing. Yet since both categories combined 5 years ago, it’s become harder for music-driven films to win. So I’m expecting F1 to come out on top.

Best Visual Effects:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. Sinners
3. F1
4. Jurassic World: Rebirth
5. The Lost Bus

While Avatar: Fire and Ash hasn’t garnered as much enthusiasm as the first two installments, one thing that is universally agreed upon is its mindblowing visual effects. With prizes from the Critics’ Choice, BAFTA, and Visual Effects Society, it’s no contest here.

​As a reminder, the Academy Awards will be taking place tonight on ABC. The pre-show will begin at 6:30pm/3:30pm. After that, the 98th Oscars telecast will begin at 7:00/4:00 lasting for about three and a half hours or so. I’ll be back soon for my predictions in the main categories.