The 97th Academy Awards are almost here! They’ll be taking place on Sunday, March 2nd at 7PM E/4PM P on ABC. To prepare you all for Hollywood’s biggest night, I’ll be going through about 11 of the 23 categories (which will consist of the 8 main above the line awards as well as the three sub Best Film awards) and give you insights as to how the race in each of them is shaping up going into the Oscars. So let’s get on with it, shall we?

​Best Animated Feature Film:

1. The Wild Robot
2. Flow
3. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
4. Inside Out 2
5. Memoir of a Snail

Since the beginning of the season, The Wild Robot has been the frontrunner to win this award. It has won most of the major precursors (Critics’ Choice and Producers Guild of America). Yet when it lost the Golden Globe to Flow, it left many wondering if this was going to be a repeat of last year where the more populist hit, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, was the one to beat, but was taken down by the more international critical darling, The Boy and the Heron. But at BAFTA, they went for Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl. From having done some research, the only Oscar winner in this category that had BAFTA as its one major precursor prize under its belt was Happy Feet way back in 2006 (most of the other groups went for Cars that year). Meanwhile, Flow is the third film to have won this category at the Globes as its only major precursor win following How to Train Your Dragon 2 (which went on to lose the Oscar to Big Hero 6) and Missing Link (which went on to lose to Toy Story 4). Therefore, all of this should bode well for The Wild Robot.

Best Documentary Feature Film:

1. Porcelain War
2. No Other Land
3. Sugarcane
4. Black Box Diaries
5. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat

This is arguably the hardest category to predict this year. Most of the precursors went for Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, but it failed to make the Oscar lineup. Of the nominees we did get, No Other Land does have a lot of critical support. It’s also very timely as it follows four activists in an act of resistance on the path to justice during the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Meanwhile, Porcelain War is the only contender here that was nominated in this category at PGA. Not only that, but it also won the DGA for Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Documentaries. That combo probably helped 20 Days in Mariupol win last year. Therefore, I’m expecting this to go to the doc relevant to the Russia-Ukraine War for the third year in a row.

Best International Feature Film:

1. Emilia Pérez
2. I’m Still Here
3. Flow
4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig
5. The Girl with the Needle

For the longest time, Emilia Pérez was considered to be unbeatable in this category. It’s won every major precursor and has 13 Oscar noms overall. Yet when all these controversies surrounding the film broke out, that led to a number of predictors abandoning ship to I’m Still Here. Given how that movie surprisingly showed up in Best Picture on nomination morning, it’s entirely possible. But I'm going with what is arguably the more widely seen film of this lineup.

Best Original Screenplay:

1. Anora
2. A Real Pain
3. The Substance
4. The Brutalist
5. September 5

Throughout the season, the precursors for this category were all over the place. Critics’ Choice went to The Substance, the Writers Guild of America went to Anora, and BAFTA went to A Real Pain. Sometimes, this award goes to the most original movie like Her, Get Out, and Promising Young Woman. By that logic, The Substance, a body horror film about a fading celebrity who uses a black market drug that creates a younger version of herself with unexpected side effects, should be winning. But it hasn’t won a single industry award. It wasn’t eligible for a WGA nomination and lost the BAFTA. While it’s not impossible for A Real Pain to win despite missing out on a Best Picture nom, you have to go all the way back to 2004 when Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind overcame that hurdle (and that was before the expansion era). Therefore, I’m settling on what is arguably the strongest film of this lineup, Anora.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

1. Conclave
2. Nickel Boys
3. A Complete Unknown
4. Sing Sing
5. Emilia Pérez

Since Conclave debuted at the fall festivals, it was seen as the frontrunner in this category. Although I myself wasn’t sure if it could actually win for one reason only: Almost every Adapted Screenplay winner since 2015 had a writing credit from the film’s director. As of now, the only exception is Call Me By Your Name in 2017, but that was the only Best Picture nominee in contention that year. Yet Conclave almost swept the season with prizes from the Golden Globes (which combines Adapted and Original), Critics’ Choice, and BAFTA. The one major precursor it didn’t win was WGA, only because it wasn’t eligible there (Nickel Boys won in its absence). It’s Conclave’s to lose.

Best Supporting Actor:

1. Kieran Culkin-A Real Pain
2. Edward Norton-A Complete Unknown
3. Guy Pearce-The Brutalist
4. Yura Borisov-Anora
5. Jeremy Strong-The Apprentice

From the beginning of the season, Kieran Culkin was seen as the one to beat in this category. He not only gives a standout performance in A Real Pain, but he’s also just coming off of a successful Emmy-winning run on Succession. Despite his film missing out on a Best Picture nomination, he swept the season. Culkin’s just hard to beat at this point. Interestingly enough, after the Oscars, he’ll be heading right into Glengarry Glen Ross on Broadway. If he wins a Tony this June, he’ll have completed his Triple Crown of Acting in like record time.

Best Supporting Actress:

1. Zoë Saldaña-Emilia Pérez
2. Ariana Grande-Wicked
3. Isabella Rossellini-Conclave
4. Felicity Jones-The Brutalist
5. Monica Barbaro-A Complete Unknown

From the beginning of the season, Zoë Saldaña was seen as the one to beat in this category. She’s had a long career, scoring big successes in different franchises such as Avatar, Star Trek, and the Marvel Cinematic Universe. She really gets to show a completely different side of herself in Emilia Pérez (which includes this standout musical number, 'El Mal,' the Best Original Song frontrunner). I know people were hoping Ariana Grande in Wicked would give her a run for her money, especially after all the controversies surrounding Emilia Pérez took off. But Saldaña has remained bulletproof by winning every major precursor. I kept saying all season long, Grande losing the Golden Globe (which she would’ve easily won like 10 years ago) was pretty much the end of the road for her. Plus, I knew she’d be vulnerable for the following reasons:

1. Genre bias; she gives a comedy performance as a witch in a fantasy musical. We all know Academy members by and large rarely ever take those kinds of roles seriously.
2. She’s too new to the movie awards scene. Sure, she’s been in the business since she was a teenager, but she’s mainly come to prominence as a pop star. As Wicked marks her first major movie role, Academy members may prefer to give her time to pay her dues as an actress.
3. With the second Wicked movie set to come out this November, everyone knows she’ll have another shot next year. Especially after producer Marc Platt revealed in a recent interview that she’ll have meatier material to work with in it.

Therefore, expect Zoë Saldaña to become the latest of James Cameron’s leading ladies to become an Oscar winner following Kate Winslet and Jamie Lee Curtis.

Best Actor:

1. Adrien Brody-The Brutalist
2. Timothée Chalamet-A Complete Unknown
3. Ralph Fiennes-Conclave
4. Colman Domingo-Sing Sing
5. Sebastian Stan-The Apprentice

22 years ago, Adrien Brody made history by becoming the youngest Best Actor winner in Oscar history for his performance in The Pianist (in quite an upset over Daniel Day-Lewis in Gangs of New York and Jack Nicholson in About Schmidt) at just 29 years old. Since then, he’s worked with several auteurs, but hasn’t had as great of a role until The Brutalist came along. Now, he’s the one to beat here after having won the Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice, and BAFTA. Timothée Chalamet may have beaten him at SAG for his performance as Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown, but I agree with many that it was likely a fluke. Expect Brody to go undefeated with the Academy.

Best Actress:

1. Demi Moore-The Substance
2. Mikey Madison-Anora
3. Fernanda Torres-I’m Still Here
4. Cynthia Erivo-Wicked
5. Karla Sofía Gascón-Emilia Pérez

Before the major precursors chimed in, Mikey Madison was the frontrunner for Anora. Yet when she lost the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Motion Picture-Comedy/Musical to Demi Moore for The Substance, everything changed. The latter is this industry veteran who was big back in the 1980s and 90s, but up until now was mostly seen as a “popcorn actress.” The Substance has not only given her a career resurgence, but also the most respect and acclaim she has ever received. Following the Globes, she went on to repeat at Critics’ Choice and SAG, but lost the BAFTA to Madison. The latter group has forecasted upset wins over frontrunners with narratives before. Like in this category last year, they went for Emma Stone in Poor Things, who then went on to prevent Lily Gladstone from becoming the very first Native American actress to win an Oscar for Killers of the Flower Moon. In that scenario, Academy members went for the performance in the film they liked more (the former won 4 awards while the latter won 0). Given that Anora is more likely to win Best Picture than The Substance at this point in the race, that could give Mikey Madison a serious leg up. But with her, she’s almost 26 years old. While we’ve seen plenty of young actresses win this category before, no ingénue has managed to win since Emma Stone for La La Land back in 2016, and she had an advantage of being well established at that point. Whereas Anora marks Madison’s breakthrough role. There may be a number of voters who don’t wish to award her so early in her career and would prefer to give her time to pay her dues. Meanwhile, Demi Moore would fit the mold of the last two Best Actress winners (Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once and the aforementioned Stone in Poor Things), a performance in this out of the box film that never would’ve gone anywhere near the Oscars 10 years ago. I’m sticking with her, but if Madison wins, I’m officially never ignoring the stat of “the nominee whose film was the stronger contender prevails in a race” ever again.

Best Director:

1. Sean Baker-Anora
2. Brady Corbet-The Brutalist
3. Coralie Fargeat-The Substance
4. James Mangold-A Complete Unknown
5. Jacquies Audiard-Emilia Pérez

Early on in the season, many expected Brady Corbet to sweep for his third feature film, The Brutalist. He managed to pull off an old school three and a half hour historical epic on a production budget of just less than $10,000,000. He’s won Best Director prizes from the Golden Globes and BAFTA. Yet he lost the Critics’ Choice to Jon M. Chu for Wicked (who’s not even nominated here) and DGA to Sean Baker for Anora. It is worth noting that the last two people who prevailed at the latter group as their only major precursor prize were Tom Hooper for The King’s Speech in 2010 and Alejandro González Iñárritu for Birdman in 2014. Both of them went on to repeat at the Oscars in their respective years. Plus, so far within this century, there have been 8 instances where DGA and BAFTA disagreed in this category. Yet in most of them, the DGA winner prevailed at the Oscars. The only exception was 2002 where Rob Marshall won DGA for Chicago while BAFTA went to the eventual Oscar winner, Roman Polanski for The Pianist. With that track record coupled with Anora surging more than The Brutalist this season, I’m settling on Baker.

Best Picture:

1. Anora
2. Conclave
3. The Brutalist
4. Emilia Pérez
5. A Complete Unknown
6. Wicked
7. The Substance
8. I’m Still Here
9. Dune: Part Two
10. Nickel Boys

Unlike the last two years where one movie (Everything Everywhere All at Once and Oppenheimer) nearly dominated the race all season long, that’s not so much the case this year. Both of the Golden Globe Awards went to The Brutalist (in the drama category) and Emilia Pérez (in the comedy/musical category). Then Anora went on to have quite a weekend winning Best Picture prizes at both Critics’ Choice and the PGA. Yet as the season was winding down, Conclave took the BAFTA as well as the SAG for Best Ensemble. Now it’s down to the latter two films. While not impossible Conclave could win, Edward Berger missing out on a Best Director nod does put it at a disadvantage. Movies that have so far won Best Picture without a directing nod in the expansion era (Argo, Green Book, and CODA) at least won PGA beforehand. It is worth noting that PGA is the only major precursor that utilizes a preferential voting system in this category like the Academy. So far within the expansion era, only three movies won the PGA, but didn’t go on to repeat at the Oscars. Which were The Big Short in 2015 (lost to Spotlight), La La Land in 2016 (even though it did win at first, it still lost to Moonlight), and 1917 in 2019 (lost to Parasite). Therefore, Anora, which some probably did question if it would do well on a preferential ballot, thinking voters would feel turned off by its horny content, winning there might be a sign.

As a reminder, the Academy Awards will be taking place tomorrow night on ABC. The pre-show will begin at 6:30pm/3:30pm. After that, the 97th Oscars telecast will begin at 7:00/4:00 lasting for about three and a half hours or so.