The 2025 Tony Awards are almost here, so let’s make some predictions, shall we? On this page, I’ll be discussing my predictions for the play categories. By the way, you'll be seeing me reference the New York Times' recently published Tony voter poll (which surveyed more than one quarter of the 840 voters) a lot.

Best Play:

1. Oh, Mary!
2. Purpose
3. John Proctor is the Villain
4. The Hills of California
5. English

According to the Times, this race will be a three-way photo finish. Purpose, Branden Jacobs-Jenkins’s Pulitzer Prize-winning drama about a prominent family in Chicago, appears to be tied with Kimberly Belflower’s John Proctor Is the Villain, about a group of high school girls grappling with echoes of The Crucible in their own lives. Although Cole Escola’s Oh, Mary!, a farce with a distinctly ahistorical take on Mary Todd Lincoln, is only a tiny bit behind. Purpose is apparently benefiting from widespread admiration for Jacobs-Jenkins, who's just coming off of winning Best Play Revival last year for Appropriate. Meanwhile John Proctor has the surprise factor in its favor as voters had no idea what to expect, and they are liking the play. Yet Oh, Mary! gets points for being a hit, and Broadway loves to celebrate success. Any of them could take it, but I'm playing it safe by predicting Oh, Mary!. It is literally one of the biggest success stories of the season as it's been having such a sold out run since opening almost a year ago.

Best Revival of a Play:

1. Eureka Day
2. Yellow Face
3. Thornton Wilder's Our Town
4. Romeo + Juliet

According to the Times, this race is also neck and neck. Eureka Day, Jonathan Spector’s comedy about a liberal private day school torn apart by vaccination politics, seems to have a slight edge over Yellow Face, David Henry Hwang’s self-satirizing piece about race-conscious casting, but this too could go either way. When ever the Times suggests one contender has a slight edge over another, they usually prevail. With that in mind, I'm settling on Eureka Day. Although if Yellow Face wins, you can partially thank PBS for that as they aired a capture of the production during final voting.

Best Lead Actor in a Play:

1. Cole Escola-Oh, Mary!
2. Jon Michael Hill-Purpose
3. Daniel Dae Kim-Yellow Face
4. George Clooney-Good Night, and Good Luck
5. Louis McCartney-Stranger Things: The First Shadow
6. Harry Lennix-Purpose

According to the Times, Cole Escola, an alt-cabaret performer who had an insane idea (of what if Mary Todd Lincoln were a delusional alcoholic stuck in a loveless marriage to a closeted gay president, while aspiring to become a chanteuse?) and turned it into Oh, Mary!, which was a huge hit Off-Broadway and is now a significant success on Broadway. The industry always loves a good Cinderella story, and this year, Cinderella is Escola. There are five other nominees in this category, including George Clooney for Good Night, and Good Luck, but Escola is trouncing all of them. This prize has been a foregone conclusion for months, because many people in the community believe that Escola, who identifies as nonbinary and uses they/them pronouns, deserves to be recognized for starring in and making a success of an idiosyncratic idea. The kind of innovative artistic accomplishment that Broadway longs to believe in. One voter specifically told the Times that “They created something with such boldness and passion and surprise, and then conducted their Tony campaign brilliantly, they murdered it,” referring to Escola’s tireless and always joyful appearances in interviews and at industry events. “They are effortlessly brilliant in a play that defies all logic, so you have got to tip your hat and say ‘well done.’ This is probably one of the two easiest play categories to predict this year.

Best Lead Actress in a Play:

1. Sarah Snook-The Picture of Dorian Gray
2. Laura Donnelly-The Hills of California
3. LaTanya Richardson Jackson-Purpose
4. Sadie Sink-John Proctor is the Villain
5. Mia Farrow-The Roommate

According to the Times, Sarah Snook, is giving what many consider a tour-de-force playing all 26 characters in a high-tech adaptation of Oscar Wilde’s The Picture of Dorian Gray. She may already have an Emmy for her role as Shiv Roy on HBO’s Succession, but she should easily win the Tony here. She not only effortlessly (at least seemingly) changes accents and carriage and costumes but also flawlessly executes an extended bit of stage magic, coordinating her movement with cameras and screens and filmed images of herself in a must-see-it-to-believe-it performance. This is probably the second of the two easiest play categories to predict this year.

Now onto the categories the Times did not cover in their survey...

Best Featured Actor in a Play:

1. Francis Jue-Yellow Face
2. Conrad Ricamora-Oh, Mary!
3. Bob Odenkirk-Glengarry Glen Ross
4. Gabriel Ebert-John Proctor is the Villain
5. Glenn Davis-Purpose

According to Variety, Francis Jue is a well-liked, theater-world stalwart, and most voters they talked to feel like he deserves this award not just for his delightful work in Yellow Face, but for the overall excellence of a long career. Still, a couple of actors might slip into the lead instead such as Conrad Ricamora, the popular stage veteran playing an absurdist take on Abraham Lincoln in Oh, Mary!, or Bob Odenkirk, offering an assured turn as a past-his-prime real estate salesman struggling to stay in the game in Glengarry Glen Ross. Ricamora wouldn't surprise me, especially since I can see a world where Oh, Mary! pulls a clean sweep. Yet this is where I have Yellow Face winning something.

Best Featured Actress in a Play:

1. Kara Young-Purpose
2. Jessica Hecht-Eureka Day
3. Fina Strazza-John Proctor is the Villain
4. Marjan Neshat-English
5. Tala Ashe-English

According to Variety, one of Broadway’s most beloved talents, Jessica Hecht is Tony nominated for a third time for her comic but deeply human turn as an antivaxxer in Eureka Day. A lot of voters admire not just her performance in that show but her body of work overall. Television audiences may know her best from her recurring roles as Susan Bunch on Friends and Gretchen Schwartz on Breaking Bad, but she's also had such a long career in the theatre. Her previous nominations were for A View From the Bridge in 2010 and Summer, 1976 in 2023. Variety says that she’s got a real chance in this category. But based on the voters they surveyed this year, it looks like the prize is going to rising star Kara Young for a second year in a row. She who last year won for her show-stopping comic turn in Purlie Victorious and is now giving an electric performance in Purpose. Last year, I betted against Young to predict Sarah Pidgeon for Stereophonic instead. I'm predicting her to win again this year and if she does so, it'd be my chance to redeem myself.

Best Direction of a Play:

1. Sam Pinkleton-Oh, Mary!
2. Danya Taymor-John Proctor is the Villain
3. Sam Mendes-The Hills of California
4. Kip Williams-The Picture of Dorian Gray
5. Knud Adams-English

According to Variety, the hit comedy, Oh, Mary!, is a fast-and-furious tightrope walk of campy extremes, and the majority of voters are ready to reward director Sam Pinkleton for his contribution to making it all work as well as it does. He seems like the winner here, although many voters also admire director Danya Taymor’s persuasive work in John Proctor is the Villain. She pulled off a big shockaroo of a win for Best Direction of a Musical last year for The Outsiders. If she does so again here, that could not only be where we see the surge for John Proctor in Best Play, but it could also teach us all to never bet against her again.

Be sure to watch the Tonys tomorrow night at 8:00 eastern/5:00 pacific on CBS. Although prior to that is The Tony Awards: Act One, an 80 minute pre-show hosted by Darren Criss & Renée Elise Goldsberry that begins at 6:40pm eastern/3:40pm pacific. If you wanna tune in for that, just click on the “Live Music” channel, found within the Entertainment category on Pluto TV. No payment, registration, or sign-in required.

Here is a quick rundown of my predictions for the remaining categories that'll be presented there.

Best Sound Design of a Play:

1. Paul Arditti-Stranger Things: The First Shadow
2. Clemence Williams-The Picture of Dorian Gray
3. Palmer Hefferan-John Proctor is the Villain
4. Daniel Kluger-Good Night, and Good Luck
5. Nick Powell-The Hills of California

Best Lighting Design of a Play:

1. Jon Clark-Stranger Things: The First Shadow
2. Nick Schlieper-The Picture of Dorian Gray
3. Natasha Katz & Hannah Wasileski-John Proctor is the Villain
4. David Bengali & Heather Gilbert-Good Night, and Good Luck
5. Natasha Chivers-The Hills of California

Best Scenic Design of a Play:

1. Miriam Buether & 59-Stranger Things: The First Shadow
2. Scott Pask-Good Night, and Good Luck
3. Rob Howell-The Hills of California
4. Marsha Ginsberg-English
5. David Bergman & Marg Horwell-The Picture of Dorian Gray

Best Costume Design of a Play:

1. Holly Pierson-Oh, Mary!
2. Marg Horwell-The Picture of Dorian Gray
3. Brigitte Reiffenstuel-Stranger Things: The First Shadow 
4. Brenda Abbandandolo-Good Night, and Good Luck
5. Rob Howell-The Hills of California