​The 2025 Tony Awards are almost here, so let’s make some predictions, shall we? On this page, I’ll be discussing my predictions for the musical categories. I'll also be providing links to a sample of as many of the nominated performances as I can find. By the way, you'll be seeing me reference the New York Times' recently published Tony voter poll (which surveyed more than one quarter of the 840 voters) a lot.

Best Musical:

1. Maybe Happy Ending
2. Buena Vista Social Club
3. Death Becomes Her
4. Dead Outlaw
5. Operation Mincemeat

​According to the Times, Maybe Happy Ending has over the last seven months been steadily winning over fans thanks to strong reviews and excellent word-of-mouth. The musical about two lonely robots in Seoul who go on a road trip and find each other has also won over Tony voters. The show has what is believed to be an overwhelming lead over its closest competitors, Buena Vista Social Club and Death Becomes Her, both of which are based on pre-existing material. That’s one part of what’s working for Maybe Happy Ending: Voters over and over say they appreciate that, in an era in which Broadway is dominated by big-brand titles adapted from movies, books, or popular song catalogs, this musical has both an original story and an original score. There are, of course, detractors, who find the four-performer show twee, but there are significantly more admirers, many of whom praise the way all the elements of Michael Arden’s production comes together. From the performances, to the direction, to the story, to even the lavish set, with state-of-the-art automation and technology. One voter specifically told the Times that “It’s delicate and intimate and engaging, and the scenic design came together to support the story in a very unified way.” With all of this in mind, it should be an easy win for the little show that could.

Best Revival of a Musical:

1. Sunset Boulevard
2. Gypsy
3. Floyd Collins
4. Pirates! The Penzance Musical

According to the Times, we should expect Sunset Boulevard to cruise to victory over its only serious competitor, Gypsy. A wise producer once told them that a Tony Award for Best Revival is really a prize for most improvement, that voters tend to honor productions that make them think differently about a title, rather than productions that simply remind them that a great show is still great. And that’s what’s happening here. The current revival of Sunset Boulevard, directed by Jamie Lloyd, is radically different from its predecessors, with a simplified set and color palate and a heavy use of projection technology. And it’s electrifying audiences, while George C. Wolfe’s production of Gypsy, often considered one of the greatest musicals ever, has proved more polarizing.

Fun Fact: When the Tonys started giving out awards for Broadway revivals way back in 1977, it was originally one category titled "Most Innovative Production of a Revival." When it comes to this category in particular, voters tend to champion the most innovative staging of a classic musical. Previous examples includes Nicholas Hytner's Carousel in 1994, Walter Bobbie's Chicago in 1997, Sam Mendes & Rob Marshall's Cabaret in 1998, Diane Paulus' Pippin in 2013, John Doyle's The Color Purple in 2016, Michael Arden's Once on This Island in 2018, Daniel Fish's Oklahoma! in 2019, and Marianne Elliott's Company in 2022. None of this year's nominees fits that mold more than Jamie Lloyd's Sunset Boulevard. While the original production of Andrew Lloyd Webber's adaptation of Billy Wilder's 1950 Academy Award-winning film won Best Musical in 1995, it still has never had the best reputation in the world. For one, the year it originally contended, it's only competition for the coveted prize was Smokey Joe's Cafe and nothing else. For another, many have personally always found the musical to be mediocre at best. Its previous revival took place just eight years ago with Glenn Close, returning to the role she originated on Broadway, Norma Desmond, backed by an onstage 40-piece orchestra. The current one gives the material a complete face lift, with many now feeling that this is the best presentation it has ever been given.

Best Lead Actor in a Musical:

1. Jonathan Groff-Just in Time
2. Darren Criss-Maybe Happy Ending
3. Tom Francis-Sunset Boulevard
4. Jeremy Jordan-Floyd Collins
5. Andrew Durand-Dead Outlaw
6. James Monroe Iglehart-A Wonderful World

According to the Times, Jonathan Groff, a much-loved Broadway star who won his first Tony Award last year for Merrily We Roll Along, and is likely, but by no means certain, to pick up a second this year for playing Bobby Darin in Just in Time. The role showcases his strengths such as his love of performing, his overflowing charisma, his gifts as a singing actor, and demonstrates that he can dance too. Although if voters decide to give the prize to someone who hasn't won yet, it will likely go to Darren Criss, who is drawing on his training in physical theater to inform his uncanny incarnation of a humanoid robot in Maybe Happy Ending.

There were previously five men who were Tony nominated for Best Lead Actor in a Musical two years in a row, but didn't manage to win consecutively. Not to mention that the last person to have prevailed in this category despite their show not having a corresponding Best Musical nor Revival nom was Barry Bostwick for The Robber Bridegroom back in 1977. Although if anyone is going to buck both those trends, it might as well be one of the most beloved actors working on Broadway today. It especially helps that Groff is playing a real-life musician, and those roles have been catnip for voters multiple times before.

Best Lead Actress in a Musical:

1. Nicole Scherzinger-Sunset Boulevard
2. Audra McDonald-Gypsy
3. Jasmine Amy Rogers-Boop! The Musical
4. Jennifer Simard-Death Becomes Her
5. Megan Hilty-Death Becomes Her​

According to the Times, this race has been perceived as tight all season, and their exchanges with voters confirm that it remains that way. The two possible winners are Audra McDonald, a universally beloved Broadway star who has already won a record six Tonys and is now being celebrated for her raw portrayal of Rose in Gypsy; and Nicole Scherzinger, a pop star making a scorching Broadway debut as Norma Desmond in Sunset Boulevard. This race remains way too close to call.

Probably the biggest head scratcher of all musical categories this year. In this battle between Grace Farrells from separate TV incarnations of Annie, they're both taking on Tony-winning roles. Rose has previously won accolades for Angela Lansbury in the 1975, Tyne Daly in 1990, and Patti LuPone in 2008. To date, the only actresses to have lost a Tony race for playing Rose are Ethel Merman for the original production in 1960 (Mary Martin won for The Sound of Music) and Bernadette Peters in 2003 (Marissa Jaret Winokur won for Hairspray). Meanwhile, Glenn Close previously won for her portrayal of Norma in the original production in 1995. A real tough one, but I’m leaning towards Scherzinger for this key reason:

We've seen in the past that when it comes to close races at any awards show, the nominee whose project was the stronger contender usually prevails. I used that logic to successfully predict Tony Shalhoub to win for The Band's Visit despite how open-ended Best Lead Actor in a Musical was in 2018. I also used it to successfully call Maleah Joi Moon for Hell's Kitchen last year despite stiff competition from Kelli O'Hara (Days of Wine and Roses) and Maryann Plunkett (The Notebook) because between the three of them, the former was the only one who was in a Best Musical nominee. This logic also likely helped Tracy Letts win for the Best Play Revival champ, Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?, in 2013 over both Tom Hanks (Lucky Guy) and Nathan Lane (The Nance), Patina Miller (Pippin) that same year over Laura Osnes (Cinderella), and Kelli O'Hara (The King & I) over Kristin Chenoweth (On the Twentieth Century) in 2015. I could very well be wrong and McDonald could still win (especially due to some possible last minute sympathy from voters following recent shade thrown at her by Patti LuPone), but I'm sticking with my instincts on this one.

Now onto the categories the Times did not cover in their survey...

Best Featured Actor in a Musical:

1. Jak Malone-Operation Mincemeat
2. Danny Burstein-Gypsy
3. Jeb Brown-Dead Outlaw
4. Brooks Ashmanskas-Smash
5. Taylor Trensch-Floyd Collins

According to Variety, Jak Malone has a standout song in the British import, Operation Mincemeat, and after winning an Olivier for his touching turn as MI5 staffer Hester Leggatt, he’ll likely get a Tony for his performance, too. His real competition, however, is beloved Broadway veteran Danny Burstein, giving a textured performance as Herbie in Gypsy. I'm expecting this to be an easy win for Malone. Although I will say that if Burstein pulls off an upset here, that could be the signal that Audra McDonald is winning Best Lead Actress in a Musical.

Best Featured Actress in a Musical:

1. Natalie Venetia Belcon-Buena Vista Social Club
2. Justina Machado-Real Women Have Curves
3. Julia Knitel-Dead Outlaw
4. Gracie Lawrence-Just in Time
5. Joy Woods-Gypsy​

According to Variety, Buena Vista Social Club has a lot of supporters among voters, and many of them are ready to hand this award to Natalie Venetia Belcon. Almost 22 years after originating the role of Gary Coleman in Avenue Q, she's giving a standout performance as one of Cuba’s musical legends, Omara Portuondo. She’ll likely take home the prize, but don’t count out Justina Machado, who turned heads for her confident, appealing turn in Real Women Have Curves.

Best Direction of a Musical:

1. Michael Arden-Maybe Happy Ending
2. Jamie Lloyd-Sunset Boulevard
3. David Cromer-Dead Outlaw
4. Christopher Gattelli-Death Becomes Her
5. Saheem Ali-Buena Vista Social Club

According to Variety, Michael Arden has a lot of voter support for his staging of Maybe Happy Ending, which matches an emotionally intimate story with a spectacular, innovative production design. Among the voters surveyed, he got the most votes, but a lot of votes also went to Jamie Lloyd for his radical rethinking of Sunset Boulevard. This one seems neck and neck, but by their count, the edge goes to Arden. He may have previously won this award for Parade just two years ago, but that probably won't matter. Hal Prince managed to win three of his Best Direction of a Musical Tonys from 1971 through 1974 (for Company, Follies, and Candide), plus two more consecutively (for Sweeney Todd in 1979 and Evita in 1980). Tommy Tune also managed to win two of his consecutively in 1990 for Grand Hotel and 1991 for The Will Rogers Follies.

Best Book of a Musical:

1. Maybe Happy Ending-Will Aronson & Hue Park
2. Death Becomes Her-Marco Pennette
3. Dead Outlaw-Itamar Moses
4. Operation Mincemeat-David Cumming, Felix Hagan, Natasha Hodgson, & Zoë Roberts
5. Buena Vista Social Club-Marco Ramirez

According to Variety, it’s looking like Maybe Happy Ending, the frontrunner for Best Musical, will also win either the award for book or the award for score, but not both. Which of the two the show takes home, though, is something of an open question, based on the voters surveyed by Variety. Their guess is Maybe Happy Ending gets the trophy for book, thanks to its clever, emotionally resonant story that surprised many voters into caring about a romance between two robots. If you ask me, it also gets bonus points for being completely original. Although if it doesn’t go to Maybe Happy Ending, look for the prize to go to Marco Pennette for his canny, contemporary adaptation of Death Becomes Her, packed with plenty of laughs.

Best Original Score:

1. Maybe Happy Ending-Music By Will Aronson, Lyrics By Will Aronson & Hue Park
2. Dead Outlaw-Music & Lyrics By David Yazbeck & Erik Della Penna
3. Death Becomes Her-Music & Lyrics By Julie Mattison & Noel Carey
4. Real Women Have Curves-Music & Lyrics By Joy Huerta & Benjamin Velez
5. Operation Mincemeat-Music & Lyrics By David Cumming, Felix Hagan, Natasha Hodgson, & Zoë Roberts

According to Variety, as much of a critical favorite as Maybe Happy Ending, Dead Outlaw is most likely to be rewarded at the Tonys for its catchy score of countrified rock tunes (plus a little jazz to mix it up). It’s the show that seems to have the most consistent support in this category, although Death Becomes Her could sweep in here, as could Maybe Happy Ending, which has plenty of backers in this category too. I'm actually sticking with the latter because I have a feeling it's going to take this award as part of its final prize haul. Plus, I'm not sure if there's really enough enthusiasm for Dead Outlaw to win anything.

Best Choreography:

1. Patricia Delgado & Justin Peck-Buena Vista Social Club
2. Jerry Mitchell-Boop! The Musical
3. Christopher Gattelli-Death Becomes Her
4. Camille A. Brown-Gypsy
5. Joshua Bergasse-Smash

According to Variety, Boop! doesn’t have many fans among voters, but for a lot of them, the dance sequences, particularly a cleverly staged number that flips between a full-color world and a black-and-white one, were the standout element. Jerry Mitchell seems to have the most voter support here, although a fair number of voters have thrown their support behind Camille A. Brown (Gypsy), a rising talent who’s been nominated five times but never won. Also in the running are Patricia Delgado and Justin Peck for their sinuous work in Buena Vista Social Club. I'm actually leaning towards the latter. With all the support there reportedly is for their show, I feel like the husband-and-wife team have the best shot of winning in this category. Not to mention that following Peck's win for Illinoise last year, he'd be the fifth individual to win Best Choreography consecutively.

Be sure to watch the Tonys tomorrow night at 8:00 eastern/5:00 pacific on CBS. Although prior to that is The Tony Awards: Act One, an 80 minute pre-show hosted by Darren Criss & Renée Elise Goldsberry that begins at 6:40pm eastern/3:40pm pacific. If you wanna tune in for that, just click on the “Live Music” channel, found within the Entertainment category on Pluto TV. No payment, registration, or sign-in required.

Here is a quick rundown of my predictions for the remaining categories that'll be presented there.

Best Orchestrations:

1. Marco Paguia-Buena Vista Social Club
2. Andrew Resnick & Justin Thurber-Just in Time
3. Will Aronson-Maybe Happy Ending
4. David Cullen & Andrew Lloyd Webber-Sunset Boulevard
5. Bruce Coughlin-Floyd Collins

Best Sound Design of a Musical:

1. Adam Fisher-Sunset Boulevard
2. Jonathan Deans-Buena Vista Social Club
3. Peter Hylenski-Just in Time
4. Peter Hylenski-Maybe Happy Ending
5. Dan Moses Schreier-Floyd Collins

Best Lighting Design of a Musical:

1. Jack Knowles-Sunset Boulevard
2. Ben Stanton-Maybe Happy Ending
3. Ruey Horng Sun & Scott Zielinski-Floyd Collins
4. Justin Townsend-Death Becomes Her
5. Tyler Micoleau-Buena Vista Social Club

Best Scenic Design of a Musical:

1. Dane Laffrey & George Reeve-Maybe Happy Ending
2. Derek McLane-Death Becomes Her
3. Derek McLane-Just in Time
4. Arnulfo Maldonado-Buena Vista Social Club
5. Rachel Hauck-Swept Away

Best Costume Design of a Musical:

1. Paul Tazewell-Death Becomes Her
2. Gregg Barnes-Boop! The Musical
3. Dede Ayite-Buena Vista Social Club
4. Catherine Zuber-Just in Time​​
5. Clint Ramos-Maybe Happy Ending