The 2024 Tony Awards are almost here, so let’s make some predictions, shall we? On this page, I’ll be discussing my predictions for the play categories. By the way, you'll be seeing me reference the New York Times' recently published Tony voter poll (which surveyed over a quarter of the 836 voters) a lot.
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Best Play:

1. Stereophonic
2. Mother Play
3. Mary Jane
4. Prayer for the French Republic
5. Jaja's African Hair Brading

According to the Times, Stereophonic, David Adjmi’s behind-the-music drama about the making of an album by the feuding members of a five-person band, scored some of the best reviews of the season and seems certain to pick up the Tony here. The show, which features original songs by Will Butler, is favored by just over half the voters surveyed. The other votes were dispersed among the other four nominees (Jaja’s African Hair Braiding, Prayer for the French Republic, Mother Play, and Mary Jane) making it virtually impossible for any of them to surpass it. Set in California in the 1970s, Stereophonic is the most nominated play in Tony history, with 13 nods, including for Butler, the director Daniel Aukin, and five members of the play’s cast. Watch for the possibility that this play could win more awards than any musical on Tony night.
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Best Revival of a Play:

1. Appropriate
2. Purlie Victorious
3. An Enemy of the People

According to the Times, nearly half of the voters surveyed are going with Appropriate, a surprise-packed drama about three adult siblings who reunite after their father’s death and confront their family’s unsettling past. Branden Jacobs-Jenkins has long been hailed as one of the most talented playwrights of his generation, and though it took a troublingly long time for a play he wrote to make it to Broadway, this one has proved to be a crowd-pleaser. Even though many voters disagreed with this decision, the Tony Awards Administration Committee deemed the Broadway production to be a revival, because the play has had several productions elsewhere over the past decade since its Off-Broadway premiere in 2014. Meanwhile, the balance is split between the other two nominees, Purlie Victorious and An Enemy of the People, making it difficult for either of them to overtake Appropriate.
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Best Performance By a Leading Actor in a Play:

1. Jeremy Strong-An Enemy of the People
2. Leslie Odom, Jr.-Purlie Victorious
3. Michael Stuhlbarg-Patriots
4. Liev Schreiber-Doubt
5. William Jackson Harper-Uncle Vanya

According to the Times, Jeremy Strong of An Enemy of the People appears to be ahead, but could be overtaken by Michael Stuhlbarg of Patriots or Leslie Odom Jr. of Purlie Victorious. Of those three, I think Stuhlbarg is the least likely to prevail given that his show has no other nominations. You have to go all the way back to 2003 when a lone acting nominee managed to prevail at the Tonys, which was Michele Pawk for Hollywood Arms. According to Variety, they give the slight edge to Odom for his confidently comic performance. Yet I'm predicting Strong to claim the crown.
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Best Performance By a Leading Actress in a Play:

1. Sarah Paulson-Appropriate
2. Jessica Lange-Mother Play
3. Rachel McAdams-Mary Jane
4. Amy Ryan-Doubt
5. Betsy Aidem-Prayer for the French Republic

According to the Times, Paulson, whose ferocious performance as the eldest of the reuniting siblings in Appropriate, will win. She has more than twice as much support as her nearest competitor, Jessica Lange of Mother Play.​ Luckily, the latter has a Tony herself for Long Day's Journey Into Night from 2016. So I'm sure she'll be perfectly fine with her former co-star from the 2005 revival of The Glass Menagerie and FX anthology series, American Horror Story, taking the prize instead.

Now onto the categories the Times did not cover in their survey...

Best Performance By a Featured Actor in a Play:

1. Eli Gelb-Stereophonic
2. Corey Stoll-Appropriate
3. Will Brill-Stereophonic
4. Jim Parsons-Mother Play
5. Tom Pecinka-Stereophonic

According to Variety, Will Brill, who brings a deeply real sense of comedy to his character’s struggles with love and sobriety in Stereophonic, has strong support from voters. He may be up against two co-stars, but because of his standout role in this season's standout new play, he's got an advantage here. Although Brill still has formidable competition from Corey Stoll, who holds his own opposite Sarah Paulson’s force-of-nature performance in Appropriate. If the three Stereophonic actors split, look out for Stoll to rise to the top. However, after thinking about it, I’m settling on Eli Gelb for the win. I know these precursors aren’t the be-all end-all when it comes to Tony chances, but I did notice that he managed to get individual nominations at some of them while Brill did not. I could very well be wrong, but I’ll gladly die on that hill if I am.

Best Performance By a Featured Actress in a Play:

1. Sarah Pidgeon-Stereophonic
2. Kara Young-Purlie Victorious
3. Celia Keenan-Bolger-Mother Play
4. Quincy Tyler Bernstine-Doubt
5. Juliana Canfield-Stereophonic

According to Variety, Sarah Pidgeon, who's playing a role loosely inspired by Stevie Nicks in Stereophonic, has, like Brill, strong support from voters. Her standout role also gives her an advantage over her co-star, Juliana Canfield. Although Kara Young is the one to watch out for in this race. She’s a well-liked young star who’s been nominated three times in the last three years. Many in the industry think now is her time to win for a boldly comic performance in Purlie Victorious that has at least one voter comparing her to Lucille Ball. Young has real momentum that could push her to the front of the line. Yet I'm sticking with Pidgeon.

Best Direction of a Play:

1. Daniel Auken-Stereophonic
2. Lila Neugebauer-Appropriate
3. Kenny Leon-Purlie Victorious
4. Whitney White-Jaja's African Hair Braiding
5. Anne Kauffman-Mary Jane

According to Variety, Daniel Aukin will score for his loose yet rigorous work that makes a highly complicated, technically precise production of Stereophonic look effortless. Any other year, Lila Neugebauer probably would've prevailed for Appropriate, but not up against the director of the most buzzed about new American play in years.

Be sure to watch the Tonys tomorrow night at 8:00 eastern/5:00 pacific on CBS. Here is a quick rundown of my predictions for the design categories, which are all likely going to be presented during the 90 minute pre-show on Pluto TV (which begins at 6:30pm eastern/3:30pm pacific)...

Best Sound Design of a Play:

1. Ryan Rumery-Stereophonic
2. Will Pickens & Bray Poor-Appropriate
3. Tom Gibbons-Grey House
4. Stefania Bulbarella & Justin Ellington-Jaja's African Hair Braiding
5. Leah Gelpe-Mary Jane

​Best Lighting Design of a Play:​​

1. Isabella Byrd-An Enemy of the People
2. Jiyoun Chang-Stereophonic
3. Jane Cox-Appropriate
4. Amith Chandrashaker-Prayer for the French Republic
5. Natasha Katz-Grey House

Best Scenic Design of a Play:

1. David Zinn-Stereophonic
2. dots-Appropriate
3. dots-An Enemy of the People
4. Derek McLane-Purlie Victorious
5. David Zinn-Jaja's African Hair Braiding

Best Costume Design of a Play:

1. Enver Chakartash-Stereophonic
2. Dede Ayite-Appropriate
3. Dede Ayite-Jaja's African Hair Braiding
4. Emilio Sosa-Purlie Victorious
5. David Zinn-An Enemy of the People