The 2024 Tony Awards are almost here, so let’s make some predictions, shall we? On this page, I’ll be discussing my predictions for the musical categories. I'll also be providing links to a sample of as many of the nominated performances as I can find. By the way, you'll be seeing me reference the New York Times' recently published Tony voter poll (which surveyed over a quarter of the 836 voters) a lot.

Best Musical:

1. The Outsiders
2. Hell's Kitchen
3. Suffs
4. Illinoise
5. Water for Elephants

According to the Times, Hell’s Kitchen, the Alicia Keys musical, is doing quite well. It got good reviews, lots of media attention, and the strongest sales of any of the season’s new musicals. But it is in a tough race for this coveted prize, where its primary competitor is a stage adaptation of S.E. Hinton's classic novel, The Outsiders, which is ahead among those surveyed, although not by an insurmountable margin. Both shows have strengths and weaknesses. Many in the industry are loving the vocal performances and the choreography in Hell’s Kitchen, but are less enamored with the storytelling. The Outsiders, based on the classic young adult novel about warring teenagers in Oklahoma, is getting lots of love for its vivid violence and gritty physical production, but less for its score. The spotlight on Keys seems to be a double-edged sword, helping to draw attention to Hell’s Kitchen, but also making The Outsiders seem like an underdog. Suffs, about the women’s suffrage movement, has support from a substantial minority of voters. Meanwhile, the other two contenders, Water for Elephants and Illinoise, are not significant factors in the race. I could very well be wrong about this, but I'm going with The Outsiders.

​Best Revival of a Musical:

1. Merrily We Roll Along
2. Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club
3. The Who's Tommy
4. Gutenberg! The Musical!

According to the Times, Merrily We Roll Along, Stephen Sondheim & George Furth's show that has long been one of musical theater’s most storied flops, will cement its long-sought redemption on Sunday by winning here. More than any show since Hamilton, Merrily has won over not only the ticket-buying audience, which has made this production a significant hit, but also the group of producers, investors, writers, actors, designers, and others whose work or volunteer lives are so theater-involved that they have qualified as Tony voters. When the show first debuted on Broadway, in 1981, it was a debacle (bad reviews, mystified audiences, and a closing just 12 days after the opening). Not anymore because now, "It's a Hit!" The current production, which opened last October and is scheduled to close on July 7, has been consistently sold out, with a high average ticket price, and is one of the few shows from the 2023-24 season to become profitable. In March, the production announced that it had recouped its $12 million capitalization cost, and the producers have filed investment papers indicating that they are raising money for a possible filming of the show. The revival, directed by Maria Friedman, has benefited enormously from the presence in the cast of Daniel Radcliffe, a box-office draw thanks to the Harry Potter movies. What's also significant is a spike in interest in musicals by Sondheim following his death in 2021. Of those surveyed, three quarters are voting for Merrily, which is as close to unanimous as these things get​.

Best Performance By a Leading Actor in a Musical:

1. Jonathan Groff-Merrily We Roll Along
2. Brian d'Arcy James-Days of Wine and Roses
3. Brody Grant-The Outsiders
4. Eddie Redmayne-Cabaret at the Kit Kat Klub
5. Dorian Harewood-The Notebook

According to the Times, Jonathan Groff has a 3-to-1 lead over his closest competitor, Brian d’Arcy James of Days of Wine and Roses, in this category, and seems sure to take home the trophy. In Merrily We Roll Along, Groff plays Franklin Shepard, a talented composer whose Hollywood work pulls him away from his closest friends. According to Variety, his take on the role is a big part of why the revival works as well as it does, and voters are poised to reward him for it. After having previously contended for Spring Awakening and Hamilton, looks like the third time will be the charm for the Broadway favorite.

Best Performance By a Leading Actress in a Musical:​​

1. Maleah Joi Moon-Hell's Kitchen
2. Kelli O'Hara-Days of Wine and Roses
3. Maryann Plunkett-The Notebook
4. Gayle Rankin-Cabaret at the Kit Kat Klub
5. Eden Espinosa-Lempicka

According to the Times, the competition here is very tight. It’s a three-way race between Kelli O’Hara of Days of Wine and Roses, Maleah Joi Moon of Hell’s Kitchen, and Maryann Plunkett of The Notebook, and any of them could take home the trophy. Variety said that signs point to the award going to Moon, making a remarkably assured debut as a young woman (inspired by Alicia Keys) growing up in New York in the 90s. Although O'Hara could still pull through for taking on such a roller-coaster of a role in her show. I'm settling on Moon given that she's the only one of the top three who's in a Best Musical nominee. Not only, but we've seen in the past how much playing a real-life music icon has been catnip for Tony voters.

​Now onto the categories the Times did not cover in their survey...

Best Performance By a Featured Actor in a Musical:

1. Daniel Radcliffe-Merrily We Roll Along
2. Steven Skybell-Cabaret at the Kit Kat Klub
3. Brandon Victor Dixon-Hell's Kitchen
4. Sky Lakota-Lynch-The Outsiders
5. Joshua Boone-The Outsiders
6. Roger Bart-Back to the Future: The Musical

According to Variety, Daniel Radcliffe has been attracting robust support for his appealing performance as Charles Kringas, a striving musical theater writer, in Merrily We Roll Along. Following acclaimed turns in Equus, How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying, and The Cripple of Inishmaan, this marks the former boy wizard's very first Tony nomination. His fifth Broadway appearance has really proven to be the charm as he's also likely about to win as well.

Best Performance By a Featured Actress in a Musical:

1. Lindsay Mendez-Merrily We Roll Along
2. Kecia Lewis-Hell's Kitchen
3. Shoshana Bean-Hell's Kitchen
4. Bebe Neuwirth-Cabaret at the Kit Kat Klub
5. Nikki M. James-Suffs
6. Amber Iman-Lempicka
7. Leslie Rodriguez Kritzer-Monty Python's Spamalot

According to Variety, Lindsay Mendez, who previously won this category for a polarizing revival of Carousel back in 2018 (which was also considered a weak year), has gotten a lot of love for her turn as Mary Flynn in Merrily We Roll Along. Although a couple of other contenders (notably Kecia Lewis and Shoshana Bean, both of Hell’s Kitchen) have turned voters heads as well. Mendez still looks primed to win, but don’t count out either Lewis or Bean, one of whom just might sneak into pole position. Then again, the latter two could split, thus paving the way for Mendez.
​
Best Direction of a Musical:

1. Maria Friedman-Merrily We Roll Along
2. Danya Taymor-The Outsiders
3. Michael Greif-Hell's Kitchen
4. Leigh Silverman-Suffs
5. Jessica Stone-Water for Elephants

According to Variety, the director behind the universally beloved production of Merrily We Roll Along, Maria Friedman, will take home the trophy for her success in breathing new life into a musical she’s been working on in various capacities for years. Many felt she finally cracked the problematic structure of Merrily, and if that's not enough to win her the Tony, I don't know what is.

Best Original Score:

1. Stereophonic-Music & Lyrics By Will Butler
2. Suffs-Music & Lyrics By Shaina Taub
3. The Outsiders-Music & Lyrics By Jamestown Revival & Justin Levine
4. Here Lies Love-Music By David Byrne & Fatboy Slim, Lyrics By David Byrne
5. Days of Wine & Roses-Music & Lyrics By Adam Guettel

According to Variety, it's a real possibility that Stereophonic, a play with original rock tunes, could win this race, which feels like it's anyone's to win. Of the two Best Musical frontrunners, The Outsiders is the only one in the category (with Hell’s Kitchen ineligible due to its score made up mostly of pre-existing Alicia Keys hits). So The Outsiders is a real possibility here as is the accomplished score for Suffs, the suffragist history musical from the well-liked creator-performer Shaina Taub. However, neither title is a clear frontrunner and Will Butler’s compelling work for Stereophonic, heard mostly in snatches throughout the play, gets a lot of love for feeling both believably period and compellingly timeless. Neither of the top three would surprise me. But I'm going with Stereophonic.

Best Book of a Musical:

1. The Outsiders-Adam Rapp & Justin Levine
2. Suffs-Shaina Taub
3. Hell's Kitchen-Kristoffer Diaz
4. The Notebook-Bekah Brunstetter
5. Water for Elephants-Rick Elice

According to Variety, this award feels like one that might shift depending on how a voter voted in other categories. If someone went with Stereophonic for Score, then maybe they would reward The Outsiders or Suffs here. If they went with The Outsiders for Score, then maybe they would give this award to Suffs. Also in the mix is The Notebook, which also has its admirers. Since I have The Outsiders winning Best Musical, I also have it winning here to support that.

Best Choreography:

1. Justin Peck-Illinoise
2. Camille A. Brown-Hell's Kitchen
3. Jeff Kuperman & Rick Kuperman-The Outsiders
4. Shana Carroll & Jesse Robb-Water for Elephants
5. Annie-B Parson-Here Lies Love

According to Variety, two names consistently came up for this category. Justin Peck, for the movement that tells the story in the dance-musical Illinoise, and Camille A. Brown, who’s well-liked in the industry and getting a lot of support for her moves in Hell’s Kitchen. They’re both solid contenders, but Variety gives Peck the slight edge, partly because it’s the showier contribution in a musical that relies entirely on choreography to tell the story, with no spoken dialogue. Given all of that, I'm settling on Illinoise.

Be sure to watch the Tonys tomorrow night at 8:00 eastern/5:00 pacific on CBS. Here is a quick rundown of my predictions for Best Orchestrations as well as the design categories, which are all likely going to be presented during the 90 minute pre-show on Pluto TV (which begins at 6:30pm eastern/3:30pm pacific)...

Best Orchestrations:

1. Jonathan Tunick-Merrily We Roll Along
2. Will Butler & Justin Craig-Stereophonic
3. Timo Andres-Illinoise
4. Adam Blackstone & Tom Kitt-Hell's Kitchen
5. Matt Hinkley, Justin Levine, & Jamestown Revival-The Outsiders

​Best Sound Design of a Musical:

1. Gareth Owen-Hell's Kitchen
2. Cody Spencer-The Outsiders
3. Kai Harada-Merrily We Roll Along
4. M.L. Dogg & Cody Spencer-Here Lies Love
5. Nick Lidster for Autograph-Cabaret at the Kit Kat Klub

Best Lighting Design of a Musical:

1. Brian MacDevitt & Hana S. Kim-The Outsiders
2. Brandon Stirling Baker-Illinoise
3. Isabella Byrd-Cabaret at the Kit Kat Klub
4. Natasha Katz-Hell's Kitchen
5. David Bengali & Bradley King-Water for Elephants

Best Scenic Design of a Musical:

1. Tom Scutt-Cabaret at the Kit Kat Klub
2. Takeshi Kata-Water for Elephants
3. David Korins-Here Lies Love
4. Tim Hatley & Finn Ross-Back to the Future: The Musical
5. Robert Brill & Peter Nigrini-Hell's Kitchen
6. AMP featuring Tatiana Kahvegian-The Outsiders
7. Riccardo Hernández & Peter Nigrini-Lempicka

Best Costume Design of a Musical:

1. Paul Tazewell-Suffs
2. Dede Ayite-Hell's Kitchen
3. Tom Scutt-Cabaret at the Kit Kat Klub
4. David Israel Reynoso-Water for Elephants
5. Linda Cho-The Great Gatsby