As we're now about one day away from the announcement of this year's Tony Award nominations, I thought now would be a good time to share what my predictions are. On this page, I’ll be discussing the play categories. For each category, I’ll be listing the predicted nominees from the combined odds of Gold Derby (as of this writing), followed by my predictions.
Best Play:
Since there are eight eligible candidates this year, there will automatically be four nominees. A fifth is possible, but only if there's a close race between two contenders within three votes. Below are the four many are expecting to make it.
The Balusters
Giant
Liberation
Little Bear Ridge Road
My Predictions: This is a category where I 100% agree with Gold Derby's predicted lineup. Of the other contenders, the only one I can see sneaking in is Punch given its recent Olivier win for Best New Play. If it does, the one I can see missing out is Little Bear Ridge Road given how it came and went pretty quickly back in the fall. Although it was still very well regarded by critics and marked the Broadway debut of celebrated playwright Samuel D. Hunter. I have a hard time seeing it not make the cut.
Best Revival of a Play:
Since there are 11 eligible candidates this year, there will automatically be five nominees. A sixth is possible, but only if there's a close race between two contenders within three votes. Below are the five many are expecting to make it.
Becky Shaw
Bug
Death of a Salesman
Marjorie Prime
Oedipus
My Predictions: This is a tough one, but I’m bumping out Marjorie Prime. It could still make it given the timely nature of that play with its AI-themed story. Bug could also be vulnerable as despite its critically acclaimed run back in the winter, some probably found it too tough of a watch to take it seriously. Then again, it did mark the Broadway premiere of the classic 1996 play by Tracy Letts, one of the most esteemed playwrights working today. Based on industry response, I’ve settled on the recently opened acclaimed revival of August Wilson’s Joe Turner’s Come and Gone for the fifth slot.
Now onto the other categories. All of them are set to have five nominees. Although a sixth or seventh slot is possible, but only if there's a tie in the nominating process.
Best Lead Actor in a Play:
Adrien Brody-The Fear of 13
Nathan Lane-Death of a Salesman
John Litghow-Giant
Daniel Radcliffe-Every Brilliant Thing
Mark Strong-Oedipus
My Predictions: I’m bumping out Adrien Brody. He may be a two-time Oscar winner, but there’s hardly any buzz surrounding The Fear of 13. Of the other possibilities, if the nominating committee loves Bug, maybe Namir Smallwood could sneak in. The same thing would apply to Micah Stock in Little Bear Ridge Road. He did surprisingly sneak into Best Featured Actor in a Play in 2015 for It’s Only a Play. Despite lackluster reactions to Dog Day Afternoon, Jon Bernthal has been giving a boisterous performance in the role that earned Al Pacino an Oscar nod in the original film. Yet I’m settling on Will Harrison as the lone representation for Punch.
Best Lead Actress in a Play:
Rose Byrne-Fallen Angels
Carrie Coon-Bug
Ayo Edebiri-Proof
Susannah Flood-Liberation
Lesley Manville-Oedipus
My Predictions: I’m bumping out Rose Byrne and Ayo Edebiri. Despite taking on a role that won Mary-Louise Parker a Tony for the original production in 2001, there’s not really much buzz surrounding the latter’s performance in the revival. Of the other possibilities, Kelli O’Hara has so far been nominated for every single one of her Broadway appearances since The Light in the Piazza in 2005. She could show up here for Fallen Angels, thus maintaining a perfect track record. Voters may also view both her and Byrne as a packaged deal. How can they nominate one without the other? Then again, the latter may stand out more for the impressive vocal transformation she makes as her character gets increasingly drunk. On the other hand, it’s possible that both could miss entirely. Since the administration committee recently declared Anika Noni Rose as lead for The Balusters, I’ve started to get a sneaking suspicion about her potentially sneaking in. She also has a bit of a narrative of having to replace Renée Elise Goldsberry at the last minute. Thus, I am predicting her to make the cut. As for the fifth slot, I’m settling on Laurie Metcalf for Little Bear Ridge Road. While it’s possible she may only get in for Featured Actress for Death of a Salesman, her performance in the former was very well regarded. So far, six performers have managed to receive two acting nominations in the same year. Given how beloved Metcalf is, I can easily see her joining that pantheon.
Now onto the featured categories, which are always the hardest to predict nominations for.
Best Featured Actor in a Play:
Christopher Abbott-Death of a Salesman
Danny Bursein-Marjorie Prime
Alden Ehrenreich-Becky Shaw
Elliot Levey-Giant
Charlie Thurston-Liberation
My Predictions: I’m bumping out Charlie Thurston. It’s possible he could still make the cut in part due to him having the only male character in a cast of mostly women in Liberation. I can also see a world where perennial nominee Danny Burstein misses depending on how much nominators remember Marjorie Prime at this point. If The Balusters really proves to be popular with nominators, maybe Richard Thomas, an acting veteran who was previously recognized for The Little Foxes in 2017, could show up here. Yet I’ve settled on Ruben Santiago-Hudson for Joe Turner’s Come and Gone. He’s a beloved fixture in the New York theatre scene giving an acclaimed turn in a role that previously won Roger Robinson a Tony for the previous revival in 2009.
Best Featured Actress in a Play:
Betsy Aidem-Liberation
Laurie Metcalf-Death of a Salesman
Cynthia Nixon-Marjorie Prime
June Squibb-Marjorie Prime
Kara Young-Proof
My Predictions: I’m bumping out Betsy Aidem and Cynthia Nixon. Both could still make it as they are industry vets. The former is a previous nominee from two years ago who reportedly had some standout moments in Liberation. The latter is a two-time winner who delivered an acclaimed turn in Marjorie Prime. Despite having been nominated the last four years (in addition to winning the last two), Kara Young could be vulnerable given the lack of buzz surrounding Proof. Yet history has so far told me to never doubt her. Of the other possibilities, Aya Cash has been seen as a standout in Giant, especially with her impactful moment at the end of Act I. Yet I’m settling on two other industry vets in productions that have so far proven to be popular: Marylouise Burke for her scene-stealing turn in The Balusters and Linda Emond for her lauded performance in Becky Shaw.
Best Direction of a Play:
Nicholas Hytner-Giant
Robert Icke-Oedipus
Anne Kauffman-Marjorie Prime
Joe Mantello-Death of a Salesman
Whitney White-Liberation
My Predictions: I’m bumping out Anne Kauffman. If you were to ask me at the beginning of the year, I would’ve said that she was a sure thing. But now, it’s hard to tell how Marjorie Prime will be received by the nominating committee at this point. Given all the industry enthusiasm surrounding the recently opened The Balusters, I’ve settled on frequent nominee Kenny Leon for the fifth slot.
Nominations will be announced by Tony nominee Uzo Aduba and Tony winner Darren Criss on Tuesday, May 5th. A selection of categories will be revealed on CBS Mornings at 8:30am with everything else on the Tonys’ YouTube channel at 9:00am.
Best Play:
Since there are eight eligible candidates this year, there will automatically be four nominees. A fifth is possible, but only if there's a close race between two contenders within three votes. Below are the four many are expecting to make it.
The Balusters
Giant
Liberation
Little Bear Ridge Road
My Predictions: This is a category where I 100% agree with Gold Derby's predicted lineup. Of the other contenders, the only one I can see sneaking in is Punch given its recent Olivier win for Best New Play. If it does, the one I can see missing out is Little Bear Ridge Road given how it came and went pretty quickly back in the fall. Although it was still very well regarded by critics and marked the Broadway debut of celebrated playwright Samuel D. Hunter. I have a hard time seeing it not make the cut.
Best Revival of a Play:
Since there are 11 eligible candidates this year, there will automatically be five nominees. A sixth is possible, but only if there's a close race between two contenders within three votes. Below are the five many are expecting to make it.
Becky Shaw
Bug
Death of a Salesman
Marjorie Prime
Oedipus
My Predictions: This is a tough one, but I’m bumping out Marjorie Prime. It could still make it given the timely nature of that play with its AI-themed story. Bug could also be vulnerable as despite its critically acclaimed run back in the winter, some probably found it too tough of a watch to take it seriously. Then again, it did mark the Broadway premiere of the classic 1996 play by Tracy Letts, one of the most esteemed playwrights working today. Based on industry response, I’ve settled on the recently opened acclaimed revival of August Wilson’s Joe Turner’s Come and Gone for the fifth slot.
Now onto the other categories. All of them are set to have five nominees. Although a sixth or seventh slot is possible, but only if there's a tie in the nominating process.
Best Lead Actor in a Play:
Adrien Brody-The Fear of 13
Nathan Lane-Death of a Salesman
John Litghow-Giant
Daniel Radcliffe-Every Brilliant Thing
Mark Strong-Oedipus
My Predictions: I’m bumping out Adrien Brody. He may be a two-time Oscar winner, but there’s hardly any buzz surrounding The Fear of 13. Of the other possibilities, if the nominating committee loves Bug, maybe Namir Smallwood could sneak in. The same thing would apply to Micah Stock in Little Bear Ridge Road. He did surprisingly sneak into Best Featured Actor in a Play in 2015 for It’s Only a Play. Despite lackluster reactions to Dog Day Afternoon, Jon Bernthal has been giving a boisterous performance in the role that earned Al Pacino an Oscar nod in the original film. Yet I’m settling on Will Harrison as the lone representation for Punch.
Best Lead Actress in a Play:
Rose Byrne-Fallen Angels
Carrie Coon-Bug
Ayo Edebiri-Proof
Susannah Flood-Liberation
Lesley Manville-Oedipus
My Predictions: I’m bumping out Rose Byrne and Ayo Edebiri. Despite taking on a role that won Mary-Louise Parker a Tony for the original production in 2001, there’s not really much buzz surrounding the latter’s performance in the revival. Of the other possibilities, Kelli O’Hara has so far been nominated for every single one of her Broadway appearances since The Light in the Piazza in 2005. She could show up here for Fallen Angels, thus maintaining a perfect track record. Voters may also view both her and Byrne as a packaged deal. How can they nominate one without the other? Then again, the latter may stand out more for the impressive vocal transformation she makes as her character gets increasingly drunk. On the other hand, it’s possible that both could miss entirely. Since the administration committee recently declared Anika Noni Rose as lead for The Balusters, I’ve started to get a sneaking suspicion about her potentially sneaking in. She also has a bit of a narrative of having to replace Renée Elise Goldsberry at the last minute. Thus, I am predicting her to make the cut. As for the fifth slot, I’m settling on Laurie Metcalf for Little Bear Ridge Road. While it’s possible she may only get in for Featured Actress for Death of a Salesman, her performance in the former was very well regarded. So far, six performers have managed to receive two acting nominations in the same year. Given how beloved Metcalf is, I can easily see her joining that pantheon.
Now onto the featured categories, which are always the hardest to predict nominations for.
Best Featured Actor in a Play:
Christopher Abbott-Death of a Salesman
Danny Bursein-Marjorie Prime
Alden Ehrenreich-Becky Shaw
Elliot Levey-Giant
Charlie Thurston-Liberation
My Predictions: I’m bumping out Charlie Thurston. It’s possible he could still make the cut in part due to him having the only male character in a cast of mostly women in Liberation. I can also see a world where perennial nominee Danny Burstein misses depending on how much nominators remember Marjorie Prime at this point. If The Balusters really proves to be popular with nominators, maybe Richard Thomas, an acting veteran who was previously recognized for The Little Foxes in 2017, could show up here. Yet I’ve settled on Ruben Santiago-Hudson for Joe Turner’s Come and Gone. He’s a beloved fixture in the New York theatre scene giving an acclaimed turn in a role that previously won Roger Robinson a Tony for the previous revival in 2009.
Best Featured Actress in a Play:
Betsy Aidem-Liberation
Laurie Metcalf-Death of a Salesman
Cynthia Nixon-Marjorie Prime
June Squibb-Marjorie Prime
Kara Young-Proof
My Predictions: I’m bumping out Betsy Aidem and Cynthia Nixon. Both could still make it as they are industry vets. The former is a previous nominee from two years ago who reportedly had some standout moments in Liberation. The latter is a two-time winner who delivered an acclaimed turn in Marjorie Prime. Despite having been nominated the last four years (in addition to winning the last two), Kara Young could be vulnerable given the lack of buzz surrounding Proof. Yet history has so far told me to never doubt her. Of the other possibilities, Aya Cash has been seen as a standout in Giant, especially with her impactful moment at the end of Act I. Yet I’m settling on two other industry vets in productions that have so far proven to be popular: Marylouise Burke for her scene-stealing turn in The Balusters and Linda Emond for her lauded performance in Becky Shaw.
Best Direction of a Play:
Nicholas Hytner-Giant
Robert Icke-Oedipus
Anne Kauffman-Marjorie Prime
Joe Mantello-Death of a Salesman
Whitney White-Liberation
My Predictions: I’m bumping out Anne Kauffman. If you were to ask me at the beginning of the year, I would’ve said that she was a sure thing. But now, it’s hard to tell how Marjorie Prime will be received by the nominating committee at this point. Given all the industry enthusiasm surrounding the recently opened The Balusters, I’ve settled on frequent nominee Kenny Leon for the fifth slot.
Nominations will be announced by Tony nominee Uzo Aduba and Tony winner Darren Criss on Tuesday, May 5th. A selection of categories will be revealed on CBS Mornings at 8:30am with everything else on the Tonys’ YouTube channel at 9:00am.