As we're now about two days away from the announcement of this year's Tony Award nominations, I thought now would be a good time to share what my predictions are. On this page, I’ll be discussing the musical categories. For each category, I’ll be listing the predicted nominees from the combined odds of Gold Derby (as of this writing), followed by my predictions.
Best Musical:
Since there are six eligible candidates this year, there will automatically be four nominees. A fifth is possible, but only if there's a close race between two contenders within three votes. Below are the four many are expecting to make it.
The Lost Boys
Schmigadoon!
Titaníque
Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
My Predictions: This is a category where I 100% agree with Gold Derby's predicted lineup. Of the other two options, they’re both real long shots. The Queen of Versailles pretty much crashed and burned with both critics and at the box office back in the fall. Beaches, which just opened, feels more like a contender for the worst musical of the season. Although if any of the predicted four were to miss, maybe The Lost Boys given the mixed reactions to that one.
Best Revival of a Musical:
Since there are five eligible candidates this year, there will automatically be three nominees. A fourth is possible, but only if there's a close race between two contenders within three votes. Below are the three many are expecting to make it.
Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Ragtime
The Rocky Horror Show
My Predictions: This is another category where I 100% agree with Gold Derby's predicted lineup. Although I am shaky on The Rocky Horror Show given its polarizing reception. Between that and Chess (which has also received mixed reactions), it really is a tossup for the third slot. Both of them have their share of supporters and detractors. I can see each of the two getting a similar amount of nominations overall. I can also see a world where the race is close enough in voting where we get an extra slot in this category, thus both make the cut. I guess now watch Mamma Mia! pull off a surprise bid here.
With Chess, the producers have reportedly invited voters back in recent months, and came out feeling that the show is now tighter and stronger than when it first opened back in the fall. However, there is the question of how many of them are members of the smaller nominating committee. With Rocky Horror, that did recently open, thus the buzz is still active on it. Plus, it’s presented by Roundabout Theatre Company, which has a solid track record of landing a spot in this category. Thus, I’m settling on the latter.
Now onto the other categories. Most of them are set to have five nominees. Although a sixth or seventh slot is possible, but only if there's a tie in the nominating process.
Best Performance By a Leading Actor in a Musical:
Nicholas Christopher-Chess
Luke Evans-The Rocky Horror Show
Joshua Henry-Ragtime
Sam Tutty-Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Brandon Uranowitz-Ragtime
My Predictions: This is another category where I 100% agree with Gold Derby's predicted lineup. Although if someone else where to sneak in, maybe Alex Brightman for Schmigadoon!. He’s been nominated twice before for School of Rock and Beetlejuice. In both instances, there were predictors who thought he was vulnerable to making the cut. Yet of the predicted five, I have a hard time seeing who could potentially miss given all the buzz surrounding each of their respective performances.
Best Performance By a Leading Actress in a Musical:
Sara Chase-Schmigadoon!
Caissie Levy-Ragtime
Lea Michele-Chess
Marla Mindelle-Titaníque
Christiani Pitts-Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
My Predictions: I’m bumping out Lea Michele. She could still very well make the cut. There may be a ton of good will for her from when she joined the most recent revival of Funny Girl in 2022 and turned it into a hit. Plus, she really has been out on the campaign trail in recent weeks. But is it enough to secure her a nomination? While her vocal performance in Chess has been well received, there are people who feel that her acting wasn’t as on par. It’s possible she’s gotten better since opening, but nominators likely only saw the show once back in the fall, and may only judge the performance on their memory. Beaches may have taken a beating from the critics, but one silver lining they did find was Jessica Vosk’s performance. After spending three years working on Wall Street in investor relations, she quit to pursue an acting career. Since then, she’s appeared on Broadway in The Bridges of Madison County, Finding Neverland, Fiddler on the Roof, Wicked, and Hell’s Kitchen. Now for the first time, she’s originated a starring role on the main stem. With all the good will she’s gotten within this past decade, I’m settling on her for the fifth slot.
Now onto the featured categories, which are always the hardest to predict nominations for.
Best Performance By a Featured Actor in a Musical:
Ali Louis Bourzgui-The Lost Boys
André De Shields-Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Jim Parsons-Titaníque
Ben Levi Ross-Ragtime
Constantine Rousouli-Titaníque
My Predictions: I’m bumping out both of the Titaníque fellas. If someone from that show were to break into this category, I think Layton Williams is the most likely to do so. He won the Olivier Award for his performance in the West End run and has reportedly been receiving standing ovations for his Tina Turner-esque number. However, the men I do have rounding out this lineup are Max Clayton for his scene-stealing turn in Schmigadoon! and Sydney James Harcourt for his reinvented take on Rum Tum Tugger in Cats: The Jellicle Ball.
Best Performance By a Featured Actress in a Musical:
Shoshana Bean-The Lost Boys
Ana Gasteyer-Schmigadoon!
Nichelle Lewis-Ragtime
"Tempress" Chasity Moore-Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Shaina Taub-Ragtime
My Predictions: I’m bumping out Shaina Taub. There could still be residual love for her following both her Book and Score wins for Suffs from two years ago. Plus, some may express sympathy for her from having recently returned to Ragtime after taking a couple months off to rest her mind and body after suffering from three miscarriages. With that being said, her character, Emma Goldman, may have the most to do of the historical figures in the musical, but probably not enough to warrant consideration. For the fifth slot, I’m settling on McKenzie Kurtz for Schmigadoon!. It’s possible Gasteyer may be the sole representation for that show in this category, especially given her standout ‘Tribulation’ number. Although if it does really well in nominations, voters may check off Kurtz as well for her scene-stealing performance.
Best Direction of a Musical:
Michael Arden-The Lost Boys
Lear deBessonet-Ragtime
Tim Jackson-Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Sam Pinkleton-The Rocky Horror Show
Zhailon Levingston & Bill Rauch-Cats: The Jellicle Ball
My Predictions: I’m bumping out Sam Pinkleton. While there could still be good will for him following his win for Oh, Mary! last year, I doubt Rocky Horror will be strong enough to land him a spot here. For the fifth slot, I’m going with Christopher Gattelli for Schmigadoon! as I’m expecting that to do very well in nominations.
Best Book of a Musical:
The Lost Boys-David Hornsby & Chris Hoch
Schmigadoon!-Cinco Paul
Titaníque-Tye Blue, Marla Mindelle, & Constantine Rousouli
Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)-Jim Barne & Kit Buchan
My Predictions: This is another category where I 100% agree with Gold Derby's predicted lineup. If anyone were to sneak in, maybe Danny Strong for his revised book of Chess. I can see some nominators respecting his attempts in making the story more coherent. With that being said, many have cited the end results of his work as a problem.
Best Original Score:
Beaches-Music By Mike Stoller, Lyrics By Iris Rainer Dart
The Lost Boys-Music & Lyrics By The Rescues
The Queen of Versailles-Music & Lyrics By Stephen Schwartz
Proof-Music By Kris Bowers
Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)-Music & Lyrics By Jim Barne & Kit
My Predictions: I’m bumping out both Beaches and Proof. I doubt there’s any passion for either of them to show up here even as a filler nominee. As the administration committee recently revealed that Cinco Paul is eligible here as he did write enough new material for Schmigadoon! in addition to his pre-existing songs from the first season of the original Apple TV+ series, there’s no way he’s missing. For the fifth slot, I’m settling on Caroline Shaw as a potential coattail nom for Death of a Salesman.
Best Choreography:
Christopher Gattelli-Schmigadoon!
Ellenore Scott-Ragtime
Ani Taj-The Rocky Horror Show
Omari Wiles & Arturo Lyons-Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Lauren Yalango-Grant & Christopher Cree Grant-The Lost Boys
My Predictions: This is another category where I 100% agree with Gold Derby's predicted lineup. Although Ellenore Scott is also an option here for Titaníque. Therefore, she could either get in for that instead of Ragtime, get in for both, or split her support and miss entirely.
Nominations will be announced by Tony nominee Uzo Aduba and Tony winner Darren Criss on Tuesday, May 5th. A selection of categories will be revealed on CBS Mornings at 8:30am with everything else on the Tonys’ YouTube channel at 9:00am.
Best Musical:
Since there are six eligible candidates this year, there will automatically be four nominees. A fifth is possible, but only if there's a close race between two contenders within three votes. Below are the four many are expecting to make it.
The Lost Boys
Schmigadoon!
Titaníque
Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
My Predictions: This is a category where I 100% agree with Gold Derby's predicted lineup. Of the other two options, they’re both real long shots. The Queen of Versailles pretty much crashed and burned with both critics and at the box office back in the fall. Beaches, which just opened, feels more like a contender for the worst musical of the season. Although if any of the predicted four were to miss, maybe The Lost Boys given the mixed reactions to that one.
Best Revival of a Musical:
Since there are five eligible candidates this year, there will automatically be three nominees. A fourth is possible, but only if there's a close race between two contenders within three votes. Below are the three many are expecting to make it.
Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Ragtime
The Rocky Horror Show
My Predictions: This is another category where I 100% agree with Gold Derby's predicted lineup. Although I am shaky on The Rocky Horror Show given its polarizing reception. Between that and Chess (which has also received mixed reactions), it really is a tossup for the third slot. Both of them have their share of supporters and detractors. I can see each of the two getting a similar amount of nominations overall. I can also see a world where the race is close enough in voting where we get an extra slot in this category, thus both make the cut. I guess now watch Mamma Mia! pull off a surprise bid here.
With Chess, the producers have reportedly invited voters back in recent months, and came out feeling that the show is now tighter and stronger than when it first opened back in the fall. However, there is the question of how many of them are members of the smaller nominating committee. With Rocky Horror, that did recently open, thus the buzz is still active on it. Plus, it’s presented by Roundabout Theatre Company, which has a solid track record of landing a spot in this category. Thus, I’m settling on the latter.
Now onto the other categories. Most of them are set to have five nominees. Although a sixth or seventh slot is possible, but only if there's a tie in the nominating process.
Best Performance By a Leading Actor in a Musical:
Nicholas Christopher-Chess
Luke Evans-The Rocky Horror Show
Joshua Henry-Ragtime
Sam Tutty-Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Brandon Uranowitz-Ragtime
My Predictions: This is another category where I 100% agree with Gold Derby's predicted lineup. Although if someone else where to sneak in, maybe Alex Brightman for Schmigadoon!. He’s been nominated twice before for School of Rock and Beetlejuice. In both instances, there were predictors who thought he was vulnerable to making the cut. Yet of the predicted five, I have a hard time seeing who could potentially miss given all the buzz surrounding each of their respective performances.
Best Performance By a Leading Actress in a Musical:
Sara Chase-Schmigadoon!
Caissie Levy-Ragtime
Lea Michele-Chess
Marla Mindelle-Titaníque
Christiani Pitts-Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
My Predictions: I’m bumping out Lea Michele. She could still very well make the cut. There may be a ton of good will for her from when she joined the most recent revival of Funny Girl in 2022 and turned it into a hit. Plus, she really has been out on the campaign trail in recent weeks. But is it enough to secure her a nomination? While her vocal performance in Chess has been well received, there are people who feel that her acting wasn’t as on par. It’s possible she’s gotten better since opening, but nominators likely only saw the show once back in the fall, and may only judge the performance on their memory. Beaches may have taken a beating from the critics, but one silver lining they did find was Jessica Vosk’s performance. After spending three years working on Wall Street in investor relations, she quit to pursue an acting career. Since then, she’s appeared on Broadway in The Bridges of Madison County, Finding Neverland, Fiddler on the Roof, Wicked, and Hell’s Kitchen. Now for the first time, she’s originated a starring role on the main stem. With all the good will she’s gotten within this past decade, I’m settling on her for the fifth slot.
Now onto the featured categories, which are always the hardest to predict nominations for.
Best Performance By a Featured Actor in a Musical:
Ali Louis Bourzgui-The Lost Boys
André De Shields-Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Jim Parsons-Titaníque
Ben Levi Ross-Ragtime
Constantine Rousouli-Titaníque
My Predictions: I’m bumping out both of the Titaníque fellas. If someone from that show were to break into this category, I think Layton Williams is the most likely to do so. He won the Olivier Award for his performance in the West End run and has reportedly been receiving standing ovations for his Tina Turner-esque number. However, the men I do have rounding out this lineup are Max Clayton for his scene-stealing turn in Schmigadoon! and Sydney James Harcourt for his reinvented take on Rum Tum Tugger in Cats: The Jellicle Ball.
Best Performance By a Featured Actress in a Musical:
Shoshana Bean-The Lost Boys
Ana Gasteyer-Schmigadoon!
Nichelle Lewis-Ragtime
"Tempress" Chasity Moore-Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Shaina Taub-Ragtime
My Predictions: I’m bumping out Shaina Taub. There could still be residual love for her following both her Book and Score wins for Suffs from two years ago. Plus, some may express sympathy for her from having recently returned to Ragtime after taking a couple months off to rest her mind and body after suffering from three miscarriages. With that being said, her character, Emma Goldman, may have the most to do of the historical figures in the musical, but probably not enough to warrant consideration. For the fifth slot, I’m settling on McKenzie Kurtz for Schmigadoon!. It’s possible Gasteyer may be the sole representation for that show in this category, especially given her standout ‘Tribulation’ number. Although if it does really well in nominations, voters may check off Kurtz as well for her scene-stealing performance.
Best Direction of a Musical:
Michael Arden-The Lost Boys
Lear deBessonet-Ragtime
Tim Jackson-Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Sam Pinkleton-The Rocky Horror Show
Zhailon Levingston & Bill Rauch-Cats: The Jellicle Ball
My Predictions: I’m bumping out Sam Pinkleton. While there could still be good will for him following his win for Oh, Mary! last year, I doubt Rocky Horror will be strong enough to land him a spot here. For the fifth slot, I’m going with Christopher Gattelli for Schmigadoon! as I’m expecting that to do very well in nominations.
Best Book of a Musical:
The Lost Boys-David Hornsby & Chris Hoch
Schmigadoon!-Cinco Paul
Titaníque-Tye Blue, Marla Mindelle, & Constantine Rousouli
Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)-Jim Barne & Kit Buchan
My Predictions: This is another category where I 100% agree with Gold Derby's predicted lineup. If anyone were to sneak in, maybe Danny Strong for his revised book of Chess. I can see some nominators respecting his attempts in making the story more coherent. With that being said, many have cited the end results of his work as a problem.
Best Original Score:
Beaches-Music By Mike Stoller, Lyrics By Iris Rainer Dart
The Lost Boys-Music & Lyrics By The Rescues
The Queen of Versailles-Music & Lyrics By Stephen Schwartz
Proof-Music By Kris Bowers
Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)-Music & Lyrics By Jim Barne & Kit
My Predictions: I’m bumping out both Beaches and Proof. I doubt there’s any passion for either of them to show up here even as a filler nominee. As the administration committee recently revealed that Cinco Paul is eligible here as he did write enough new material for Schmigadoon! in addition to his pre-existing songs from the first season of the original Apple TV+ series, there’s no way he’s missing. For the fifth slot, I’m settling on Caroline Shaw as a potential coattail nom for Death of a Salesman.
Best Choreography:
Christopher Gattelli-Schmigadoon!
Ellenore Scott-Ragtime
Ani Taj-The Rocky Horror Show
Omari Wiles & Arturo Lyons-Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Lauren Yalango-Grant & Christopher Cree Grant-The Lost Boys
My Predictions: This is another category where I 100% agree with Gold Derby's predicted lineup. Although Ellenore Scott is also an option here for Titaníque. Therefore, she could either get in for that instead of Ragtime, get in for both, or split her support and miss entirely.
Nominations will be announced by Tony nominee Uzo Aduba and Tony winner Darren Criss on Tuesday, May 5th. A selection of categories will be revealed on CBS Mornings at 8:30am with everything else on the Tonys’ YouTube channel at 9:00am.