As we're now about two days away from the announcement of this year's Tony Award nominations, I thought now would be a good time to share what my predictions are. On this page, I’ll be discussing the play categories. For each category, I’ll be listing the predicted nominees from the combined odds of Gold Derby (as of this writing), followed by my predictions.
Best Play:
Since there are 14 eligible candidates this year, there will automatically be five nominees. A sixth is possible, but only if there's a close race between two contenders within three votes. Below are the five many are expecting to make it.
English
The Hills of California
John Proctor is the Villain
Oh, Mary!
Purpose
My Predictions: This is a category where I 100% agree with Gold Derby's predicted lineup. If anything were to sneak in, maybe The Picture of Dorian Gray or Stranger Things: The First Shadow. They’re both expected to do well in design nominations with the former being a major contender for Lead Actress for Sarah Snook. Although I can see a case where Stranger Things follows a similar trajectory to Network and Life of Pi where nominators recognize what a technical achievement it is, but question whether or not it's even the best play. Dorian Gray could probably also follow The Audience and Prima Facie where it's only really recognized for the performances and design elements, but not as much the play itself.
Best Revival of a Play:
Since there are seven eligible candidates this year, there will automatically be four nominees. A fifth is possible, but only if there's a close race between two contenders within three votes. Below are the four many are expecting to make it.
Eureka Day
Glengarry Glen Ross
Othello
Yellow Face
While the current Broadway revival of Othello is doing very well at the box office, it has gotten very mixed reactions. Same thing applied to another Shakespeare remounting with Romeo + Juliet back in the fall. There’s also Roundabout Theatre Company’s production of Home, which took place almost a year ago at this point, but also faced mixed reviews and was very much under the radar.
My Predictions: I’m bumping out Othello for Our Town. While the latter wasn’t universally liked, it at least wasn’t seen as much of a disappointment as both Shakespeare revivals.
Now onto the other categories. All of them are set to have five nominees. Although a sixth or seventh slot is possible, but only if there's a tie in the nominating process.
Best Lead Actor in a Play:
George Clooney-Good Night, and Good Luck
Jon Michael Hill-Purpose
Cole Escola-Oh, Mary!
Jake Gyllenhaal-Othello
Denzel Washington-Othello
I don’t see either two-time Oscar winner (Clooney and Washington) making it. The overall reception for both respective performances just weren’t good enough to warrant recognition. Louis McCartney could sneak in for Stranger Things: The First Shadow. While Tony precursors aren’t necessarily the be-all end-all, he has at least showed up with noms from the Drama League and Outer Critics Circle Awards. Then again, the play may end up being seen more as a technical achievement. If Our Town overperforms, maybe Jim Parsons pops up here for his performance as the Stage Manager. It helps that he’s already a previous nominee for Mother Play just last year. There’s also the question of how Harry Lennix is going to factor into this category. For a while, many assumed that he was gonna go featured for Purpose, but the administration committee declared him as lead.
My Predictions: I’m bumping out George Clooney and Denzel Washington for Kit Connor and Daniel Dae Kim. Despite mixed reactions to the most recent revival of Romeo + Juliet, many at least found Connor’s performance to be a key take away from it. Meanwhile, I’m currently expecting Yellow Face to be a top tier contender to win Best Revival of a Play. Therefore, it wouldn’t make sense for Kim not to show up here.
Best Lead Actress in a Play:
Laura Donnelly-The Hills of California
Mia Farrow-The Roommate
LaTanya Richardson Jackson-Purpose
Sadie Sink-John Proctor is the Villain
Sarah Snook-The Picture of Dorian Gray
My Predictions: This is another category where I 100% agree with Gold Derby's predicted lineup. Although if any of these five were to miss, I can see it being Mia Farrow. The Roommate not only took place way back in the fall, but it was also very much under the radar. It also doesn’t help that it’s not expected to show up anywhere else. Plus, there is the factor of whether or not her co-star, Patti LuPone, could be strong enough to lead to a potential vote split with nominators. The only other contender I can see sneaking in is Rachel Zegler for Romeo + Juliet. Although there is the question of whether enough voters are willing to look past some recent controversial comments she's made regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Donald Trump's threats to democracy.
Now onto the featured categories, which are always the hardest to predict nominations for.
Best Featured Actor in a Play:
Kieran Culkin-Glengarry Glen Ross
Bill Irwin-Eureka Day
Francis Jue-Yellow Face
Bob Odenkirk-Glengarry Glen Ross
Conrad Ricamora-Oh, Mary!
Early on, many expected Kieran Culkin to follow his Emmy win for Succession and recent Oscar win for A Real Pain by completing his Triple Crown of Acting with a Tony win here. His character in Glengarry Glen Ross, Richard Roma, has done well before with Joe Mantegna winning for the original production in 1984 as well as Liev Schreiber for the 2005 revival. Yet multiple critics felt Culkin was miscast in the role. While it is possible he could still make the cut, I can see several other possibilities showing up over him. Now that Harry Lennix is going lead for Purpose, maybe that benefits his co-star, Glenn Davis. If John Proctor is the Villain overperforms in nominations, Gabriel Ebert could surprise. Although James Scully sneaking in as a surprise coattail nom for Oh, Mary! wouldn’t be shocking.
My Predictions: I’m bumping out Kieran Culkin for his co-star Bill Burr. Those who've seen Glengarry Glen Ross personally felt the latter (along with Bob Odenkirk) were bigger takeaways from the revival.
Best Featured Actress in a Play:
Leanne Best-The Hills of California
Jessica Hecht-Eureka Day
Bianca Leigh-Oh, Mary!
Mare Winningham-Cult of Love
Kara Young-Purpose
Mare Winningham could very well happen given how respected she is by her peers. Although given that Cult of Love was another show that came and went early on in the season and was pretty much under the radar, I’m not sure how much of a shot she has at this point. Other possibilities I’ve considered are Tala Ashe and Marjan Neshat from English. Yet it feels likelier that they’ll end up canceling each other out. Especially given the ensemble nature of that play.
My Predictions: I’m bumping out Mare Winningham for Amalia Yoo. With all the buzz John Proctor is the Villain has been getting in recent weeks, her showing up here feels like a strong possibility. Plus, many have considered to be a standout in that play.
Best Direction of a Play:
Patrick Marber-Glengarry Glen Ross
Sam Mendes-The Hills of California
Sam Pinkleton-Oh, Mary!
Phylicia Rashad-Purpose
Danya Taymor-John Proctor is the Villain
I feel predictors are probably overestimating how Glengarry Glen Ross is gonna do overall. While I still have it getting in for Best Revival of a Play, the general consensus at best has been “it’s good, but not great.” So I have a hard time seeing Patrick Marber crack this category. If Eureka Day and/or Yellow Face prove to be stronger than expected, maybe Anna D. Shapiro and/or Leigh Silverman could surprise. With that being said, I feel a stronger possibility than all of those combined is Kip Williams for The Picture of Dorian Gray. While his stage adaptation of the Oscar Wilde classic is a solo play, it still features such talked about stagecraft that might be hard to ignore for the nominating committee.
My Predictions: I’m bumping out Patrick Marber for Stephen Daldry & Justin Martin. Regardless of what anyone thought of Stranger Things: The First Shadow overall, there’s no doubt what a remarkable achievement it was in stagecraft. A lot of the credit for that of course belongs to the directors.
Nominations will be announced by Tony winner Sarah Paulson and Tony nominee Wendell Pierce on Thursday, May 1st. A selection of categories will be revealed on CBS Mornings at 8:30am with everything else on the Tonys’ YouTube channel at 9:00am.
Best Play:
Since there are 14 eligible candidates this year, there will automatically be five nominees. A sixth is possible, but only if there's a close race between two contenders within three votes. Below are the five many are expecting to make it.
English
The Hills of California
John Proctor is the Villain
Oh, Mary!
Purpose
My Predictions: This is a category where I 100% agree with Gold Derby's predicted lineup. If anything were to sneak in, maybe The Picture of Dorian Gray or Stranger Things: The First Shadow. They’re both expected to do well in design nominations with the former being a major contender for Lead Actress for Sarah Snook. Although I can see a case where Stranger Things follows a similar trajectory to Network and Life of Pi where nominators recognize what a technical achievement it is, but question whether or not it's even the best play. Dorian Gray could probably also follow The Audience and Prima Facie where it's only really recognized for the performances and design elements, but not as much the play itself.
Best Revival of a Play:
Since there are seven eligible candidates this year, there will automatically be four nominees. A fifth is possible, but only if there's a close race between two contenders within three votes. Below are the four many are expecting to make it.
Eureka Day
Glengarry Glen Ross
Othello
Yellow Face
While the current Broadway revival of Othello is doing very well at the box office, it has gotten very mixed reactions. Same thing applied to another Shakespeare remounting with Romeo + Juliet back in the fall. There’s also Roundabout Theatre Company’s production of Home, which took place almost a year ago at this point, but also faced mixed reviews and was very much under the radar.
My Predictions: I’m bumping out Othello for Our Town. While the latter wasn’t universally liked, it at least wasn’t seen as much of a disappointment as both Shakespeare revivals.
Now onto the other categories. All of them are set to have five nominees. Although a sixth or seventh slot is possible, but only if there's a tie in the nominating process.
Best Lead Actor in a Play:
George Clooney-Good Night, and Good Luck
Jon Michael Hill-Purpose
Cole Escola-Oh, Mary!
Jake Gyllenhaal-Othello
Denzel Washington-Othello
I don’t see either two-time Oscar winner (Clooney and Washington) making it. The overall reception for both respective performances just weren’t good enough to warrant recognition. Louis McCartney could sneak in for Stranger Things: The First Shadow. While Tony precursors aren’t necessarily the be-all end-all, he has at least showed up with noms from the Drama League and Outer Critics Circle Awards. Then again, the play may end up being seen more as a technical achievement. If Our Town overperforms, maybe Jim Parsons pops up here for his performance as the Stage Manager. It helps that he’s already a previous nominee for Mother Play just last year. There’s also the question of how Harry Lennix is going to factor into this category. For a while, many assumed that he was gonna go featured for Purpose, but the administration committee declared him as lead.
My Predictions: I’m bumping out George Clooney and Denzel Washington for Kit Connor and Daniel Dae Kim. Despite mixed reactions to the most recent revival of Romeo + Juliet, many at least found Connor’s performance to be a key take away from it. Meanwhile, I’m currently expecting Yellow Face to be a top tier contender to win Best Revival of a Play. Therefore, it wouldn’t make sense for Kim not to show up here.
Best Lead Actress in a Play:
Laura Donnelly-The Hills of California
Mia Farrow-The Roommate
LaTanya Richardson Jackson-Purpose
Sadie Sink-John Proctor is the Villain
Sarah Snook-The Picture of Dorian Gray
My Predictions: This is another category where I 100% agree with Gold Derby's predicted lineup. Although if any of these five were to miss, I can see it being Mia Farrow. The Roommate not only took place way back in the fall, but it was also very much under the radar. It also doesn’t help that it’s not expected to show up anywhere else. Plus, there is the factor of whether or not her co-star, Patti LuPone, could be strong enough to lead to a potential vote split with nominators. The only other contender I can see sneaking in is Rachel Zegler for Romeo + Juliet. Although there is the question of whether enough voters are willing to look past some recent controversial comments she's made regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Donald Trump's threats to democracy.
Now onto the featured categories, which are always the hardest to predict nominations for.
Best Featured Actor in a Play:
Kieran Culkin-Glengarry Glen Ross
Bill Irwin-Eureka Day
Francis Jue-Yellow Face
Bob Odenkirk-Glengarry Glen Ross
Conrad Ricamora-Oh, Mary!
Early on, many expected Kieran Culkin to follow his Emmy win for Succession and recent Oscar win for A Real Pain by completing his Triple Crown of Acting with a Tony win here. His character in Glengarry Glen Ross, Richard Roma, has done well before with Joe Mantegna winning for the original production in 1984 as well as Liev Schreiber for the 2005 revival. Yet multiple critics felt Culkin was miscast in the role. While it is possible he could still make the cut, I can see several other possibilities showing up over him. Now that Harry Lennix is going lead for Purpose, maybe that benefits his co-star, Glenn Davis. If John Proctor is the Villain overperforms in nominations, Gabriel Ebert could surprise. Although James Scully sneaking in as a surprise coattail nom for Oh, Mary! wouldn’t be shocking.
My Predictions: I’m bumping out Kieran Culkin for his co-star Bill Burr. Those who've seen Glengarry Glen Ross personally felt the latter (along with Bob Odenkirk) were bigger takeaways from the revival.
Best Featured Actress in a Play:
Leanne Best-The Hills of California
Jessica Hecht-Eureka Day
Bianca Leigh-Oh, Mary!
Mare Winningham-Cult of Love
Kara Young-Purpose
Mare Winningham could very well happen given how respected she is by her peers. Although given that Cult of Love was another show that came and went early on in the season and was pretty much under the radar, I’m not sure how much of a shot she has at this point. Other possibilities I’ve considered are Tala Ashe and Marjan Neshat from English. Yet it feels likelier that they’ll end up canceling each other out. Especially given the ensemble nature of that play.
My Predictions: I’m bumping out Mare Winningham for Amalia Yoo. With all the buzz John Proctor is the Villain has been getting in recent weeks, her showing up here feels like a strong possibility. Plus, many have considered to be a standout in that play.
Best Direction of a Play:
Patrick Marber-Glengarry Glen Ross
Sam Mendes-The Hills of California
Sam Pinkleton-Oh, Mary!
Phylicia Rashad-Purpose
Danya Taymor-John Proctor is the Villain
I feel predictors are probably overestimating how Glengarry Glen Ross is gonna do overall. While I still have it getting in for Best Revival of a Play, the general consensus at best has been “it’s good, but not great.” So I have a hard time seeing Patrick Marber crack this category. If Eureka Day and/or Yellow Face prove to be stronger than expected, maybe Anna D. Shapiro and/or Leigh Silverman could surprise. With that being said, I feel a stronger possibility than all of those combined is Kip Williams for The Picture of Dorian Gray. While his stage adaptation of the Oscar Wilde classic is a solo play, it still features such talked about stagecraft that might be hard to ignore for the nominating committee.
My Predictions: I’m bumping out Patrick Marber for Stephen Daldry & Justin Martin. Regardless of what anyone thought of Stranger Things: The First Shadow overall, there’s no doubt what a remarkable achievement it was in stagecraft. A lot of the credit for that of course belongs to the directors.
Nominations will be announced by Tony winner Sarah Paulson and Tony nominee Wendell Pierce on Thursday, May 1st. A selection of categories will be revealed on CBS Mornings at 8:30am with everything else on the Tonys’ YouTube channel at 9:00am.