As we're now about one day away from the announcement of this year's Tony Award nominations, I thought now would be a good time to share what my predictions are. On this page, I’ll be discussing the musical categories. For each category, I’ll be listing the predicted nominees from the combined odds of Gold Derby (as of this writing), followed by my predictions.
Best Musical:
Since there are 14 eligible candidates this year, there will automatically be five nominees. A sixth is possible, but only if there's a close race between two contenders within three votes. Below are the five many are expecting to make it.
Buena Vista Social Club
Dead Outlaw
Death Becomes Her
Maybe Happy Ending
Operation Mincemeat
My Predictions: This is a category where I 100% agree with Gold Derby's predicted lineup. Although if any of them miss, maybe Operation Mincemeat. Despite all its success from London’s West End and acclaim on this side of the pond, there is the question of how much the British nature of the story will resonate with American voters. Of the other options, the only two I can see sneaking in are Boop!, a feel-good musical comedy that just opened to favorable reviews, and Real Women Have Curves, which opened at just the last minute to a lot of positive buzz.
Best Revival of a Musical:
Since there are seven eligible candidates this year, there will automatically be four nominees. A fifth is possible, but only if there's a close race between two contenders within three votes. Below are the four many are expecting to make it.
Floyd Collins
Gypsy
Pirates! The Penzance Musical
Sunset Boulevard
My Predictions: This is another category where I 100% agree with Gold Derby's predicted lineup. Even though I do have a sneaking suspicion about Once Upon a Mattress sneaking in over Floyd Collins. The former may have ended its limited run back in the fall, but it was well reviewed and people within the industry really enjoyed it. Plus, in a time where so much negativity is going on in the world, nominators may want to rally around a more feel-good show. Meanwhile, the latter just opened to mixed notices for its Broadway debut. Although for many folks, the cult classic ranks as one of their favorite musical theater scores of all time. So there could be enough admiration for it to crack into the lineup. But one thing’s for sure, neither Elf nor The Last Five Years have a shot.
Now onto the other categories. All of them are set to have five nominees. Although a sixth or seventh slot is possible, but only if there's a tie in the nominating process.
Best Performance By a Leading Actor in a Musical:
Darren Criss-Maybe Happy Ending
Andrew Durand-Dead Outlaw
Tom Francis-Sunset Boulevard
Jonathan Groff-Just in Time
Jeremy Jordan-Floyd Collins
My Predictions: I hate to be boring, but this is another category where I 100% agree with Gold Derby's predicted lineup. The main reason for that is because I have no idea which of the five could miss. As for who could potentially sneak in, maybe David Hyde Pierce given how beloved he is by everyone. Plus, he apparently delivers one of the top musical theatre numbers of the season with his rendition of ‘Modern Major General’ in Pirates! The Penzance Musical. Then again, there is the question of how much his co-star, Ramin Karimloo, could lead to a potential vote-split. Especially given how the latter is in the role that won Kevin Kline a Tony for the previous revival back in 1981. Although if Operation Mincemeat overperforms, David Cumming could show up here as a surprise coattail nom.
Best Performance By a Leading Actress in a Musical:
Megan Hilty-Death Becomes Her
Audra McDonald-Gypsy
Nicole Scherzinger-Sunset Boulevard
Helen J. Shen-Maybe Happy Ending
Jennifer Simard-Death Becomes Her
There've been a few instances in the past where I felt this category had potential for a close enough race in the nominating process to warrant an additional slot or two, but didn’t happen. I hope it happens this time. Just look at the roster of other contenders this year such as Tatiana Cordoba in Real Women Have Curves, Sutton Foster in Once Upon a Mattress, Natasha Hodgson in Operation Mincemeat, and Idina Menzel in Redwood. Cordoba could benefit from a potential last-minute surge for her show. Since winning for Thoroughly Modern Millie in 2002, Foster has so far been nominated for each of her seven subsequent Broadway shows she’s opened with the exception of Young Frankenstein in 2008. Hodgson could also be a potential coattail nom for her show. Menzel has so far opened four shows on Broadway, and the previous three at least got her nominated.
My Predictions: I’m bumping out Jennifer Simard for Jasmine Amy Rogers. The former could still make it as nominators might view her and Hilty as a packaged deal. Although not impossible if the latter misses and Simard doesn’t. With that being said, Rogers literally delivered a-star-is-born performance for her Broadway debut playing the iconic cartoon character in Boop!. I have a hard time seeing her miss.
Now onto the featured categories, which are always the hardest to predict nominations for.
Best Performance By a Featured Actor in a Musical:
Danny Burstein-Gypsy
Jak Malone-Operation Mincemeat
Thom Sesma-Dead Outlaw
Christopher Sieber-Death Becomes Her
David Thaxton-Sunset Boulevard
Before the most recent eligibility ruling, many assumed Jeb Brown was going lead for Dead Outlaw along with Andrew Durand while Thom Sesma was going to be the featured contender for that show. But since Brown is now contending in this category, that makes things trickier. His character is a bandleader who feels like the driving force of the musical. Meanwhile, Sesma only has one major song near the end. There’s also possibilities of veterans like Brooks Ashmanskas or Michael Urie sneaking in for their comedic performances. The former had two Broadway credits this past season. In his current one, Smash, many have found him to be the standout of the entire. Meanwhile, in his first, Once Upon a Mattress, many have found his co-star, Urie, to be the standout of all the featured players.
My Predictions: I’m bumping out Thom Sesma for Jeb Brown. I could very well be wrong. They could either both get in, both miss, or things go according to plan (by a majority of people). After all, the two of them are Broadway veterans looking to become first-time Tony nominees this year.
Best Performance By a Featured Actress in a Musical:
Natalie Venetia Belcon-Buena Vista Social Club
Justina Machado-Real Women Have Curves
Bernadette Peters-Stephen Sondheim’s Old Friends
Michelle T. Williams-Death Becomes Her
Joy Woods-Gypsy
This is probably the trickiest category to figure out. It’s possible that a majority of these ladies won’t even make the cut. There’s countless other possibilities such as Lesli Margherita in Gypsy, Zoë Roberts in Operation Mincemeat, Lea Salonga in Stephen Sondheim’s Old Friends, and Grace Hodgett Young in Sunset Boulevard. Despite having only one scene as Tessie Tura, many have found Margherita's performance to be an absolute standout. Roberts could benefit from a potential strong showing from her show. Salonga’s rendition of ‘Everything’s Coming Up Roses’ from Gypsy reportedly rivals Audra McDonald’s in the current revival. Young could be a potential coattail nom for her show.
My Predictions: I’m bumping out Bernadette Peters and Michelle T. Williams for Julia Knitel and Jinkx Monsoon. Despite being the legend that she is (and veteran Sondheim interpreter), Old Friends apparently feels as much about Peters’ collaborations with him as it does the legendary songwriter himself. Plus, there is the question of if nominators will know how to consider a performance within a revue. Williams could still make it, especially given her narrative of how her previous Broadway appearance in Once on This Island back in 2018 was short-lived due to her mental health issues, but came back in Death Becomes Her fully recovered. With Knitel, many have declared her to be a standout in Dead Outlaw. Likewise with Monsoon in Pirates! The Penzance Musical. Although I must admit, the one I’m probably most shaky on is Joy Woods. So far, Louise in Gypsy has had a pretty perfect track record of getting its actresses nominated for every single prior Broadway production (Laura Benanti winning for the previous revival in 2008). Then again, Woods’ performance has had pretty mixed reactions. So this will be a test of whether or not that role is truly invincible.
Best Direction of a Musical:
Michael Arden-Maybe Happy Ending
David Cromer-Dead Outlaw
Robert Hastie-Operation Mincemeat
Jamie Lloyd-Sunset Boulevard
George C. Wolfe-Gypsy
This could very well be the final lineup. Although other possibilities are Scott Ellis and Christopher Gattelli. The former is a frequent nominee and got a lot of acclaim for his staging of Pirates! The Penzance Musical. Not only that, but he’s also co-credited for the revised concept for the classic Gilbert & Sullivan operetta. Meanwhile, the latter is one of the most well regarded choreographers working today, and he delivered with his Broadway directorial debut with Death Becomes Her.
My Predictions: I’m bumping out Robert Hastie for Saheem Ali. To a point I made earlier, the former getting in will have to depend on how American voters respond to Operation Mincemeat overall. Although the latter could benefit from providing such showy staging in Buena Vista Social Club.
Best Book of a Musical:
Buena Vista Social Club-Marco Ramirez
Dead Outlaw-Itamar Moses
Death Becomes Her-Marco Pennette
Maybe Happy Ending-Will Aronson & Hue Park
Operation Mincemeat-David Cumming, Felix Hagan, Natasha Hodgson, & Zoë Roberts
My Predictions: This is another category where I 100% agree with Gold Derby's predicted lineup. Although if Boop! and/or Real Women Have Curves sneak into Best Musical, expect either of them to show up here too. Although what I can see being a dark horse contender is Pirates! The Penzance Musical. Rupert Holmes is eligible for a nomination here as he wrote a whole new script based on the original libretto for The Pirates of Penzance. If nominators really love the production, he could definitely surprise.
Best Original Score:
Boop! The Musical-Music By David Foster, Lyrics By Susan Birkenhead
Dead Outlaw-Music & Lyrics By David Yazbek & Erik Della Penna
Death Becomes Her-Music & Lyrics By Julia Mattison & Noel Carey
Maybe Happy Ending-Music By Will Aronson, Lyrics By Will Aronson & Hue Park
Operation Mincemeat-Music & Lyrics By David Cumming, Felix Hagan, Natasha Hodgson, & Zoë Roberts
As Buena Vista Social Club’s score consists of pre-existing material, it’s not eligible here. So if it gets in for Best Musical as expected, that would leave a spot open for something else to get into this category. Boop! could certainly do it for its toe-tapping score. With that being said…
My Predictions: I’m bumping out Boop! for Real Women Have Curves. This is another prediction where I could very well be wrong, but given the last minute buzz coming in for the latter musical, I have a feeling it will show up here. After all, many have found the score for that to be hummable, which helps.
Best Choreography:
Joshua Bergasse-Smash
Warren Carlyle-Pirates! The Penzance Musical
Patricia Delgado & Justin Peck-Buena Vista Social Club
Christopher Gattelli-Death Becomes Her
Jerry Mitchell-Boop! The Musical
My Predictions: This is another category where I 100% agree with Gold Derby's predicted lineup. I not only have a hard time seeing which of the five could miss, but also who could potentially sneak in. Fabian Aloise could show up as a surprise coattail nom for Sunset Boulevard. Same with Camille A. Brown for Gypsy. Although Sergio Trujillo, who made his Broadway directorial with Real Women Have Curves, is a beloved choreographer. He’s probably a longshot for a directing nom, so this could be the nominators’ way of acknowledging his overall contributions on the show.
Nominations will be announced by Tony winner Sarah Paulson and Tony nominee Wendell Pierce on Thursday, May 1st. A selection of categories will be revealed on CBS Mornings at 8:30am with everything else on the Tonys’ YouTube channel at 9:00am.
Best Musical:
Since there are 14 eligible candidates this year, there will automatically be five nominees. A sixth is possible, but only if there's a close race between two contenders within three votes. Below are the five many are expecting to make it.
Buena Vista Social Club
Dead Outlaw
Death Becomes Her
Maybe Happy Ending
Operation Mincemeat
My Predictions: This is a category where I 100% agree with Gold Derby's predicted lineup. Although if any of them miss, maybe Operation Mincemeat. Despite all its success from London’s West End and acclaim on this side of the pond, there is the question of how much the British nature of the story will resonate with American voters. Of the other options, the only two I can see sneaking in are Boop!, a feel-good musical comedy that just opened to favorable reviews, and Real Women Have Curves, which opened at just the last minute to a lot of positive buzz.
Best Revival of a Musical:
Since there are seven eligible candidates this year, there will automatically be four nominees. A fifth is possible, but only if there's a close race between two contenders within three votes. Below are the four many are expecting to make it.
Floyd Collins
Gypsy
Pirates! The Penzance Musical
Sunset Boulevard
My Predictions: This is another category where I 100% agree with Gold Derby's predicted lineup. Even though I do have a sneaking suspicion about Once Upon a Mattress sneaking in over Floyd Collins. The former may have ended its limited run back in the fall, but it was well reviewed and people within the industry really enjoyed it. Plus, in a time where so much negativity is going on in the world, nominators may want to rally around a more feel-good show. Meanwhile, the latter just opened to mixed notices for its Broadway debut. Although for many folks, the cult classic ranks as one of their favorite musical theater scores of all time. So there could be enough admiration for it to crack into the lineup. But one thing’s for sure, neither Elf nor The Last Five Years have a shot.
Now onto the other categories. All of them are set to have five nominees. Although a sixth or seventh slot is possible, but only if there's a tie in the nominating process.
Best Performance By a Leading Actor in a Musical:
Darren Criss-Maybe Happy Ending
Andrew Durand-Dead Outlaw
Tom Francis-Sunset Boulevard
Jonathan Groff-Just in Time
Jeremy Jordan-Floyd Collins
My Predictions: I hate to be boring, but this is another category where I 100% agree with Gold Derby's predicted lineup. The main reason for that is because I have no idea which of the five could miss. As for who could potentially sneak in, maybe David Hyde Pierce given how beloved he is by everyone. Plus, he apparently delivers one of the top musical theatre numbers of the season with his rendition of ‘Modern Major General’ in Pirates! The Penzance Musical. Then again, there is the question of how much his co-star, Ramin Karimloo, could lead to a potential vote-split. Especially given how the latter is in the role that won Kevin Kline a Tony for the previous revival back in 1981. Although if Operation Mincemeat overperforms, David Cumming could show up here as a surprise coattail nom.
Best Performance By a Leading Actress in a Musical:
Megan Hilty-Death Becomes Her
Audra McDonald-Gypsy
Nicole Scherzinger-Sunset Boulevard
Helen J. Shen-Maybe Happy Ending
Jennifer Simard-Death Becomes Her
There've been a few instances in the past where I felt this category had potential for a close enough race in the nominating process to warrant an additional slot or two, but didn’t happen. I hope it happens this time. Just look at the roster of other contenders this year such as Tatiana Cordoba in Real Women Have Curves, Sutton Foster in Once Upon a Mattress, Natasha Hodgson in Operation Mincemeat, and Idina Menzel in Redwood. Cordoba could benefit from a potential last-minute surge for her show. Since winning for Thoroughly Modern Millie in 2002, Foster has so far been nominated for each of her seven subsequent Broadway shows she’s opened with the exception of Young Frankenstein in 2008. Hodgson could also be a potential coattail nom for her show. Menzel has so far opened four shows on Broadway, and the previous three at least got her nominated.
My Predictions: I’m bumping out Jennifer Simard for Jasmine Amy Rogers. The former could still make it as nominators might view her and Hilty as a packaged deal. Although not impossible if the latter misses and Simard doesn’t. With that being said, Rogers literally delivered a-star-is-born performance for her Broadway debut playing the iconic cartoon character in Boop!. I have a hard time seeing her miss.
Now onto the featured categories, which are always the hardest to predict nominations for.
Best Performance By a Featured Actor in a Musical:
Danny Burstein-Gypsy
Jak Malone-Operation Mincemeat
Thom Sesma-Dead Outlaw
Christopher Sieber-Death Becomes Her
David Thaxton-Sunset Boulevard
Before the most recent eligibility ruling, many assumed Jeb Brown was going lead for Dead Outlaw along with Andrew Durand while Thom Sesma was going to be the featured contender for that show. But since Brown is now contending in this category, that makes things trickier. His character is a bandleader who feels like the driving force of the musical. Meanwhile, Sesma only has one major song near the end. There’s also possibilities of veterans like Brooks Ashmanskas or Michael Urie sneaking in for their comedic performances. The former had two Broadway credits this past season. In his current one, Smash, many have found him to be the standout of the entire. Meanwhile, in his first, Once Upon a Mattress, many have found his co-star, Urie, to be the standout of all the featured players.
My Predictions: I’m bumping out Thom Sesma for Jeb Brown. I could very well be wrong. They could either both get in, both miss, or things go according to plan (by a majority of people). After all, the two of them are Broadway veterans looking to become first-time Tony nominees this year.
Best Performance By a Featured Actress in a Musical:
Natalie Venetia Belcon-Buena Vista Social Club
Justina Machado-Real Women Have Curves
Bernadette Peters-Stephen Sondheim’s Old Friends
Michelle T. Williams-Death Becomes Her
Joy Woods-Gypsy
This is probably the trickiest category to figure out. It’s possible that a majority of these ladies won’t even make the cut. There’s countless other possibilities such as Lesli Margherita in Gypsy, Zoë Roberts in Operation Mincemeat, Lea Salonga in Stephen Sondheim’s Old Friends, and Grace Hodgett Young in Sunset Boulevard. Despite having only one scene as Tessie Tura, many have found Margherita's performance to be an absolute standout. Roberts could benefit from a potential strong showing from her show. Salonga’s rendition of ‘Everything’s Coming Up Roses’ from Gypsy reportedly rivals Audra McDonald’s in the current revival. Young could be a potential coattail nom for her show.
My Predictions: I’m bumping out Bernadette Peters and Michelle T. Williams for Julia Knitel and Jinkx Monsoon. Despite being the legend that she is (and veteran Sondheim interpreter), Old Friends apparently feels as much about Peters’ collaborations with him as it does the legendary songwriter himself. Plus, there is the question of if nominators will know how to consider a performance within a revue. Williams could still make it, especially given her narrative of how her previous Broadway appearance in Once on This Island back in 2018 was short-lived due to her mental health issues, but came back in Death Becomes Her fully recovered. With Knitel, many have declared her to be a standout in Dead Outlaw. Likewise with Monsoon in Pirates! The Penzance Musical. Although I must admit, the one I’m probably most shaky on is Joy Woods. So far, Louise in Gypsy has had a pretty perfect track record of getting its actresses nominated for every single prior Broadway production (Laura Benanti winning for the previous revival in 2008). Then again, Woods’ performance has had pretty mixed reactions. So this will be a test of whether or not that role is truly invincible.
Best Direction of a Musical:
Michael Arden-Maybe Happy Ending
David Cromer-Dead Outlaw
Robert Hastie-Operation Mincemeat
Jamie Lloyd-Sunset Boulevard
George C. Wolfe-Gypsy
This could very well be the final lineup. Although other possibilities are Scott Ellis and Christopher Gattelli. The former is a frequent nominee and got a lot of acclaim for his staging of Pirates! The Penzance Musical. Not only that, but he’s also co-credited for the revised concept for the classic Gilbert & Sullivan operetta. Meanwhile, the latter is one of the most well regarded choreographers working today, and he delivered with his Broadway directorial debut with Death Becomes Her.
My Predictions: I’m bumping out Robert Hastie for Saheem Ali. To a point I made earlier, the former getting in will have to depend on how American voters respond to Operation Mincemeat overall. Although the latter could benefit from providing such showy staging in Buena Vista Social Club.
Best Book of a Musical:
Buena Vista Social Club-Marco Ramirez
Dead Outlaw-Itamar Moses
Death Becomes Her-Marco Pennette
Maybe Happy Ending-Will Aronson & Hue Park
Operation Mincemeat-David Cumming, Felix Hagan, Natasha Hodgson, & Zoë Roberts
My Predictions: This is another category where I 100% agree with Gold Derby's predicted lineup. Although if Boop! and/or Real Women Have Curves sneak into Best Musical, expect either of them to show up here too. Although what I can see being a dark horse contender is Pirates! The Penzance Musical. Rupert Holmes is eligible for a nomination here as he wrote a whole new script based on the original libretto for The Pirates of Penzance. If nominators really love the production, he could definitely surprise.
Best Original Score:
Boop! The Musical-Music By David Foster, Lyrics By Susan Birkenhead
Dead Outlaw-Music & Lyrics By David Yazbek & Erik Della Penna
Death Becomes Her-Music & Lyrics By Julia Mattison & Noel Carey
Maybe Happy Ending-Music By Will Aronson, Lyrics By Will Aronson & Hue Park
Operation Mincemeat-Music & Lyrics By David Cumming, Felix Hagan, Natasha Hodgson, & Zoë Roberts
As Buena Vista Social Club’s score consists of pre-existing material, it’s not eligible here. So if it gets in for Best Musical as expected, that would leave a spot open for something else to get into this category. Boop! could certainly do it for its toe-tapping score. With that being said…
My Predictions: I’m bumping out Boop! for Real Women Have Curves. This is another prediction where I could very well be wrong, but given the last minute buzz coming in for the latter musical, I have a feeling it will show up here. After all, many have found the score for that to be hummable, which helps.
Best Choreography:
Joshua Bergasse-Smash
Warren Carlyle-Pirates! The Penzance Musical
Patricia Delgado & Justin Peck-Buena Vista Social Club
Christopher Gattelli-Death Becomes Her
Jerry Mitchell-Boop! The Musical
My Predictions: This is another category where I 100% agree with Gold Derby's predicted lineup. I not only have a hard time seeing which of the five could miss, but also who could potentially sneak in. Fabian Aloise could show up as a surprise coattail nom for Sunset Boulevard. Same with Camille A. Brown for Gypsy. Although Sergio Trujillo, who made his Broadway directorial with Real Women Have Curves, is a beloved choreographer. He’s probably a longshot for a directing nom, so this could be the nominators’ way of acknowledging his overall contributions on the show.
Nominations will be announced by Tony winner Sarah Paulson and Tony nominee Wendell Pierce on Thursday, May 1st. A selection of categories will be revealed on CBS Mornings at 8:30am with everything else on the Tonys’ YouTube channel at 9:00am.